Seeding Watch:
There's not much to report this week. Justinian I is already secure in the #3 overall seed, and while a win will get him closer to the top two, there's no way he catches them this game. Gandhi does have a chance to move up: a win puts him at the very top of Pool Two, and he'll displace Stalin in Pool One if he manages to pair it with at least one kill. The remaining four leaders are all well short of seeded status.
Got this posted nice and early because I'm jumping to write up my analysis of this map! We have a pretty unique continent shape for this one and I'm all for that. One side effect, though, is that the three leaders at the ends of the snaky continent seem to have a pretty clear advantage. While this map is relatively spacious anyway, those three leaders will also have considerable secure backlines, and should all be major players at the very least. None of the three central leaders are good fits for those positions either, in my view. Accordingly, I think it's extremely likely that one of the outer three leaders is going to win, and there's an excellent chance that another will come in second place as well.
As mentioned, I don't think that any of the three central leaders is particularly good, at least not in the positions they find themselves in. That latter phrase especially applies to Gandhi, who might stand an excellent chance of winning from another position, but I think is pretty screwed here. I think Gandhi is one of the worst leaders possible for a central starting position, between his general military weakness and dogpile magnet tendencies, and that applies here as well. He's one of the closest neighbors of both Justinian and Brennus, the map's two low peaceweight warmongers - and he's almost certain to practice a different religion from at least one of them, making war at some point pretty much a certainty. I don't think Ramesses or Augustus will hesitate for long to dogpile him as well if they end up with a different faith. While his position isn't otherwise bad - capital copper should ensure he doesn't instantly fold, and overall his surrounding land is quite green - I don't think he's going to be able to enjoy it in peace, and he'll bite the dust sooner or later. His land might be nice, but it will fuel somebody else's victory, not his.
Then there's Frederick, who has the famed double gold starting position that made a bunch of fantasy coaches go crazy over the Game 3 leaders when we were bidding. Big whoop! Pacal just showed us how easy it is to squander that advantage, and his position was in all other respects far better than Fred's position in this game - to say nothing of Pacal being a far more effective AI as well! Other than the gold and nearby furs, and I guess a nice river flowing through the middle of his territory, Fred's position doesn't have anything to recommend it, and he'll be one of the most cramped leaders on the map. The gold will help him keep pace early on, but I don't think it will do anything more than that. Maybe if he gets really lucky with some dogpiles, he'll have a shot at second place, but I think he's extremely likely to be an irrelevant this game, and would be completely shocked if he pulled out in front. And I say this about my fantasy leader!
Brennus I think has the best odds of the central three. The crucial question for his game (as well as Justinian's) is going to be: who founds the opening religions? There are three leaders with Mysticism starts, plus another who might well pursue a faith out of the gate and snag it if the others don't commit. I think Justinian and Brennus are likely to win any direct races with Gandhi thanks to their starting rivers, but really this is going to be unpredictable, coming down to the die rolls of who chases Meditation and who chases Polytheism. But it will be very important. If Brennus and Justin follow different faiths, they will almost certainly come into conflict at some point, and if that happens then Brennus is screwed. I don't see him conquering Justin, and with a hot war with the most militaristic other leader on his hands, he's not going to be able to snowball and will fall out of contention. This is not his Wildcard 2 spot! On the other hand, if they follow the same faith, they will be BFFs and can unite against the world, and if they do this then I think geography and the leaders they're up against give them a good chance in this scenario. There's no Mansa/Liz to beat up on them, neither is a tech-crazy lightweight like Pacal, and they're at the end of the snaking continent - they could definitely roll it up together and both move on to the Championship, and this is how Brennus would move on.
But regardless of whether he works with or against Justin, Brennus is clearly in the weaker position and would almost certainly play second fiddle. He almost certainly will not be able to peacefully expand as much, he's more likely to make boneheaded early tech choices, his capital looks pretty mediocre, his starting land in general is choked with trees to make for a slow start, and his lower peaceweight and reduced distance makes him very likely to take the brunt of any aggression from the peaceniks. If he gets lucky with the spoils of war and grows much larger than Justin that way, maybe he could win. Otherwise, his best hope is to work with him, aim for that second place spot, and be happy he can make it to the championship at all.
As for the three stronger leaders, Justinian has the most intriguing situation on this map, the one I'm most curious to see how plays out since I don't really know how good his odds are. Diplomacy is somewhat stacked against him in this high peaceweight crowd, and his capital isn't that great. The points in his favor are considerable backlines for good early expansion, comfy position at the end of the continent, great for conquering up the map, and his strong track record. Again, if he and Brennus work together, I think they can accomplish some good stuff against the peaceniks and Justin almost certainly moves on to the Championship in that scenario. But will he be able to contend for the win, or will Augustus or Ramesses on the other end of the map be untouchable? I really don't know. And what if he and Brennus fight? Brennus is clearly screwed in that situation, but is Justin going to fall too far behind as well? Or does he still have a chance? A lot undoubtedly depends on how things unfold on the other end of the continent. My gut feeling is that Justin is slowed down too much in this scenario and can't keep up with the peaceniks, but I'm really not sure.
Augustus Caesar has a lovely position on this map and I think he has the best odds of moving on to the Championship. There's a lot of land around him to fill up with Imperialistic, and it's very green. There are a lot of trees to slow down his early game, but sheltered as his position is, I think he's going to have the time to cut them down, develop his land, and unlock its full potential to become a monster. He has the instant capital gems (and potential early gold as well!) to keep his economy humming in the early game and not crash. His neighbors are all close in peaceweight and won't declare war at Pleased, which leaves it likely that he's safe early on, and later is free to go further afield and chase after the low peaceweights - and if the low peaceweights do fall on this map, Augustus is by far the best fighter of the peaceniks and should profit handsomely. Perhaps a Ramesses culture train or Justinian conquering on the other end of the map beat him out for first place, but I think something has to go horribly, horribly wrong for Augustus to miss out on a top two spot. I've convinced myself here that he's going to be one of those clear map winners in the alternate histories when the time comes; we'll see if I'm correct!
Finally, I have the least to say about Ramesses. Like Justin and Augustus, he has a lot of room to expand, but his land isn't as rich as Augustus's. Wars playing out the right way could put him in front, and he's the most likely leader to win this map by culture, but overall I don't like his odds quite as much, and if he and Augustus follow different religions and come to blows, I definitely favor Rome. I don't think this is an especially interesting position, to be honest, but it does give the pharaoh solid odds.
I'll decide on my pick for certain later on, but right now I'm inclined to vote for Augustus as the winner. Justinian or Ramesses is the most likely runner up in that case, I think, and Gandhi is almost certainly going to be my pick as first to die. I'll mull it over a while though.
