Syria again - your solutions?

[kramerfan86]

Im hoping the fact that opinion polls show americans are against getting involved will prevent the politicians facing elections from jumping in guns blazing yet again. Im worried though that media reports will shift that.

 

[Leoreth]

Also, it would be best if there were no wars in the world and all people were like brothers and sisters to each other.

Exactly! Why does no one listen to me?

 

[Winner]

I don't know about your brothers and sisters, but I have fought a lot with my brothers and my sisters are a bit estranged

 

[r16]

shall we call it hope ? For the duration perhaps ? The thing people expect us to do by invading Syria ? Like a couple of people have mentioned here ? As usual , there was a wave of arrested officers , some 50 , this time on charges of spying . Don't know why the news channels list all the commands searched , colonels arrested , houses "visited" , aren't these all old news ? Similarly old are the news that this country is being used as a terminal for weapon deliveries to the North of the theater . Even the declaration that this country serves only the Islamic Brotherhood and nothing to the whatever secular elements does not surprise the slightest . For a short moment the delivery of anti tank "missiles" was interesting ; the reportage was then modified into AT weapons . Since missiles from this country to another would "legalize" the delivery of the same to the seperatists , greatly improving their hard kill capacity against our armour and outposts , hence faciliating their soon-to-come challenge to the Turkish Army for territorial control . Our forthcoming Civil War is getting clearer , people will not want getting stuck with that ...

just as usual , Mrs. Rodham has been on the news declaring the massing of Syrian troops near Halep - Aleppo to fellow Civ3 players- is a challenge to Turkey and its redlines . Oh dear , isn't the prime biz of US to paint over Turkish redlines ? And still as usual , experts rushed to TV studios , one declaring placing troops near the borders is against international law . Oh dear squared ... Being close to borders can be a sign of foul intent , but illegal ? We certainly didn't ever ask Syrians where we would mass our troops , they surely can conduct ops within their borders , watching where their bullets fall . But then this is so ugly and so unkindly and definitely undesirable ; the West doesn't feel like fighting for the moment , possibly since it is now Summer , the hot season and the "liberated" zone out there must be kept by our shadow if nothing else . When the mood to fight returns to the West , we will be "rushed" forward to save people , freedom , democracy , whatever . Because , you know people have a zone and now that they have a zone it means the people in the zone do not want the yoke of the oppressive capital . The Gulf Arabs live in hotter climes , why don't they come ? Shooting people that can shoot back isn't glorious as firing tear gas canisters right into the civvie faces ? Or maybe they are already stretched in the South ?

the funny thing is of course when ı was younger , the emptiness of the Syrian side of the border was the perfect sign of their hostility to us . ( Because they were not there to fight the seperatists ) Which then leads to some mental exercise . This redline business is maybe related to the '98 magic ? But then nobody remembers seeing Mrs. Rodham in the command posts ; unless she was deployed in the field wouldn't it be nicer if she gave up deciding which Turkish line is a red and which is not ? Anyhow , if Syrian tanks 50 kilometers from our border are bad , America still has nukes 100 km from the same border , am ı right ?

indeed , ı heard it with my own ears that you can't be near international borders . And if you think this is tops , you haven't heard the rest . Apparently the solution to the Syrian mess lies in Russia and the said expert claimed , Victoria Nuland , who is the spokesperson for the US State Department as far as ı know , offered Putin local elections and increased pay for retired officers , in Russia ! ı kid you not , this is what we hear on TV ... A brilliant idea , the US can solve anything with this method . Looking forward to the day the world hunger is no more after Uncle Sam buys 50 tons of cabbage from Babushkas .

 

[luiz]

I agree there is nothing to gain by invading Syria, that much is obvious. And maybe (though this is quite uncertain) Assad is the lesser evil from a Western POV.

But I think what is being overlooked in this discussion is the fact that Assad is finished. He lost all legitimacy in the face of his own people, in the face of his Arab neighbors, in the face of Turkey and the rest of the Muslim World (except Iran). It's now a matter of how he will go down; dead like Kadafi and Hussein or following the exiled despot tradition (given his personality I am guessing the second route). What the West can do is try to gain an upper hand in whatever government will emerge following Assad's demise. That's why it is rational to back the rebellion, even if only diplomatically, because that's the way to gain influence with the people who will eventually rule Syria.

The future won't be rosy, but that's how it is. And there's a decidedly bright side to all this, which is Iran losing influence in the region, and Lebanon gaining a chance of being left alone in the future by the weakening of Hezbollah (and of Syria).

 

[Winner]

But I think what is being overlooked in this discussion is the fact that Assad is finished. He lost all legitimacy in the face of his own people,

And you know this how? All signs point to his continued support among the key segments of Syrian society, those which have traditionally propped up the regime.

in the face of his Arab neighbors, in the face of Turkey and the rest of the Muslim World (except Iran). It's now a matter of how he will go down; dead like Kadafi and Hussein or following the exiled despot tradition (given his personality I am guessing the second route).

Or he crushes the rebels like his father and continues to rule to his old age.

What the West can do is try to gain an upper hand in whatever government will emerge following Assad's demise. That's why it is rational to back the rebellion, even if only diplomatically, because that's the way to gain influence with the people who will eventually rule Syria.

You mean the bunch of blood-thirsty militias that will turn it into a Lebano-Somalia? Those who will massacre the Alawites and Christians once they get the opportunity?

Something tells me the West doesn't want to be associated with that at all.

The future won't be rosy, but that's how it is. And there's a decidedly bright side to all this, which is Iran losing influence in the region, and Lebanon gaining a chance of being left alone in the future by the weakening of Hezbollah (and of Syria).

So, Iran loses influence and Saudi Arabia gains it. Why does it feel like there's no difference?

 

[luiz]

And you know this how? All signs point to his continued support among the key segments of Syrian society, those which have traditionally propped up the regime.

The segments that have traditionally propped up the regime (Alawites, Christians, other small minorities) are a minority and unable to hold the country if the other segments are united in purpose. While the regime was primarily supported by those minority segments since the beginning, it depended on indifference or division among the majority in order to rule. Now that the big majority firmly loathes Assad and wants a regime change, the writing is on the wall. It is a matter of how and when, not if.

Or he crushes the rebels like his father and continues to rule to his old age.

He can achieve many military victories, and most likely will be able to hold the country in the short term, but with continued defection of key supporters of the regime and an international blockade he is bleeding slowly.

If you had to bet would you say Assad will be in power in 2014?

You mean the bunch of blood-thirsty militias that will turn it into a Lebano-Somalia? Those who will massacre the Alawites and Christians once they get the opportunity?

Something tells me the West doesn't want to be associated with that at all.

I doubt it will be like that, even if there is a distinct chance. And that's exactly where the West's influence among the rebels is needed in order to curb their desire for violent retribution.

So, Iran loses influence and Saudi Arabia gains it. Why does it feel like there's no difference?

Morally there isn't, as far the West's geopolitical interests go there is a huge difference.

 

[Winner]

The segments that have traditionally propped up the regime (Alawites, Christians, other small minorities) are a minority and unable to hold the country if the other segments are united in purpose.

And are they? The "opposition" seems to be very fragmented and unable to coordinate a wider-front attack against the regime. Their "resistance" consists of holing up in towns, taking locals as hostages/living shields, and then having themselves blasted to oblivion by artillery and tanks. Great strategy guys, a few more months of this and you'll surely win, like the last time you tried

While the regime was primarily supported by those minority segments since the beginning, it depended on indifference or division among the majority in order to rule. Now that the big majority firmly loathes Assad and wants a regime change, the writing is on the wall. It is a matter of how and when, not if.

And again, how sure are you about who's in majority? Do you have independent poll results I am not aware of? Please, if you do, share the numbers!

Sorry for the sarcasm, but I am hugely sceptical whenever someone makes claims like these concerning Syria. The fact is it is a pretty closed country and most Westerners know jack poo about what's going on there. I guess you're probably right and a majority is opposed to Assad. I also think that only a fraction of this majority is willing to die in open rebellion, whereas the regime - exactly because it's based on a minority rule, like that of Saddam in Iraq - knows its back is against the wall and will fight tooth and nail for the survival of itself and the minorities it depends on.

He can achieve many military victories, and most likely will be able to hold the country in the short term, but with continued defection of key supporters of the regime and an international blockade he is bleeding slowly.

If you had to bet would you say Assad will be in power in 2014?

Remember, Saddam survived an abject and humiliating defeat in 1991, then went on to massacre and gas the Shia and the Kurds respectively when they've risen against him, despite the West's no-fly zones and similar measures to aid the rebels. He held on to power for 12 more years, enduring crippling sanctions and almost complete international isolation, and would have stayed in charge until his death if the Americans hadn't deposed him by means of massive military intervention.

I doubt it will be like that, even if there is a distinct chance. And that's exactly where the West's influence among the rebels is needed in order to curb their desire for violent retribution.

I envy your optimism. Experience shows that Western aid usually doesn't translate well into post-war willingness to uphold human rights, justice, democracy, and all that. I for one fail to understand how a failed-state Syria or Sunni-fundamentalist Syria would be in any way better than reasonably secular Alawite dictatorship.

Morally there isn't, as far the West's geopolitical interests go there is a huge difference.

It is absolutely not in Western interest to help Saudi Arabia expand its influence. If anything, its leash needs to be shortened and its rulers slapped more often.

 

[kramerfan86]

I think this has been going on for too long to suggest he is going to be able to shut it down like his father did. His father's troubles were isolated to single towns and his shows of force nipped the trouble at the bud, his problems have been raging for a year and spread nationwide.

 

[Winner]

I think this has been going on for too long to suggest he is going to be able to shut it down like his father did. His father's troubles were isolated to single towns and his shows of force nipped the trouble at the bud, his problems have been raging for a year and spread nationwide.

See the link in my post above. It lasted for 3 years at least.

 

[kramerfan86]

Still it seems like it was more of a slow burn with a big blow up here and there as opposed to the near constant nationwide chaos being seen right now.

 

[innonimatu]

I doubt it will be like that, even if there is a distinct chance. And that's exactly where the West's influence among the rebels is needed in order to curb their desire for violent retribution.

Violent retribution? Retribution for what, exactly? Have the syrian christians been someone else's oppressors up to now?

Hell, even the Vatican's own news agency, which is usually very circumspect in order to avoid antagonizing anyone, is now openly denouncing the real situation in Syria:

ASIA/SYRIA-Instability and violence, appeal of the Apostolic Nuncio: "Enough with atrocities"

Damascus (Agenzia Fides) - Instability, insecurity, violence, massacres: the scenario in Syria today is bleak. According to the "Syrian National Council", which leads the opposition in Houla, in the province of Homs, 88 people, including civilians and children, were killed by the bombing of the regular army. Fides sources report a different version: the regular army hit Houla, where many Salafist militants and terrorists have found refuge, using civilians as human shields.

"The desolation of Homs and the war of information ": the words of a greek-catholic Bishop

"Peace in Syria could be saved if everyone told the truth. After a year of conflict, the reality on the ground is far from the picture that imposes disinformation in Western media": says a testimony sent to Fides Agency by the French Bishop Philip Tournyol Clos, a greek-Catholic Melkite Archimandrite, who recently visited Syria, by traveling to different cities, like Damascus, Aleppo and Homs.
In Homs, called the "martyred city", "opposition forces have occupied two areas, Diwan Al Bustan and Hamidieh, where there are all the churches and bishoprics," the Archimandrite told Fides. "The picture for us – he continues - is utter desolation: the church of Mar Elian is half destroyed and that of Our Lady of Peace is still occupied by the rebels. Christian homes are severely damaged due to the fighting and completely emptied of their inhabitants, who fled without taking anything. The area of Hamidieh is still shelter to armed groups independent of each other, heavily armed and bankrolled by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. All Christians (138,000) have fled to Damascus and Lebanon, while others took refuge in the surrounding countryside. A priest was killed and another was wounded by three bullets. Still a couple live there, but the five bishops have had to take refuge in Damascus and Lebanon. "The Christian leader continues: "In the capital car bombs and assassinations on behalf of Islamist suicide bombers, drawn by the desire of heaven, that cradle the dream of the end of the Alawite regime are feared. Currently the country, through the bloody work of adventurers who are not Syrian is trying to be destabilized. The former French ambassador, Eric Chevallier, reported this information, which was always rejected, while many details remain to be forged to keep the war against Syria," denounced the Bishop to Fides. In Damascus in recent weeks, there were terrible attacks that ended with a toll: of 130 deaths (including 34 Christians), 400 injured and many houses damaged.
[...]
The Syrian soldiers in fact, continue to face foreign fighters, mercenaries Libyans, Lebanese militants from the Gulf, Afghans, Turks. "The Sunni Salafist militants - says the Bishop - continue to commit crimes against civilians, or to recruit fighters with force. The fanatical Sunni extremists are fighting a holy war proudly, especially against the Alawites. When terrorists seek to control the religious identity of a suspect, they ask him to cite the genealogies dating back to Moses. And they ask to recite a prayer that the Alawites removed. The Alawites have no chance to get out alive." (PA) (Agenzia Fides 04/06/2012)

Qusayr (Agenzia Fides) - The Christian Maurice Bitar was killed in Qusayr, near the town of Homs where the Christian population - about a thousand people out of 10 thousand who lived there before the beginning of the violence - has been forced to flee after the 'ultimatum launched by an armed faction in the opposition forces led by General Abdel Salam Harba (see Fides 09/06/2012). As anticipated by Fides, some Christians, after the warning, however, chose to remain in Qusayr, exposing themselves to considerable risks. Maurice Bitar was killed by a sniper, with three other men while he was out of the house to buy bread for his family. The Christian inhabitants of Qusayr, local sources of Fides report, suffer harassment such as no vehicular access on streets and the obligation to "give way" if they meet a Muslim, "as in the days of the Ottoman caliphate," notes the source of Fides .
The armed opposition, in fact, as confirmed by numerous observers in Syria and abroad, is gradually radicalizing towards Sunni extremist ideology.
[...]
According to Fides sources, "the situation is unsustainable in the area and exposed to total lawlessness." Christians face a harsh reality: they either join the opposition, enlisting their young ones, or are victims of harassment, discrimination, violence. The fate of Christians in Qusary, concludes the source, could soon touch the 10 thousand faithful who live in other villages in the area, such as Dmeineh, Rableh and Hamra. (PA) (Agenzia Fides 12/6/2012)

They do have their own people in the area,so I'm ready to take their reports more seriously than those of the foreign journalists and "human rights activists" taken in guided tours by the rebels to produce pro-war propaganda.

They're pointing at the saudis and qataris, which is no surprise, but still leaving out that hands from the US and of Israel are also pulling strings, and that the plan is indeed probably to goad the Turks into getting bogged down in Syria doing the dirty job of finishing the destruction of the country.

This follows a well established pattern: arm terrorists, cause a state of civil war, spread propaganda that the government trying to restore order is carrying out "massacres" (it is usually admitted, years later, to have been exactly the opposite), and then bomb the place to hell. The goal: to destroy one state after the other, leaving extremely weak (and therefore manipulable) governments on the wake of the imperial war machine. It's the plan for the "new american century".

In the meanwhile Amnesty International and other NGOs keep playing the role of useful idiots. Just look at this little piece:

In several villages and towns around Idlib the scars of the recent army incursions are very visible. Hundreds of houses have been burned down and everywhere I met families whose relatives were killed. Many were killed in exchanges of fire, in what seemed rather futile attempts by hopelessly outgunned armed opposition fighters to prevent scores of army tanks from entering the towns and villages. Others, both opposition fighters and people not involved in any fighting, were extra-judicially executed after they were arrested at their homes and those of their relatives.

In Saraqeb, a woman told me that in the afternoon of 26 March soldiers came to her home and took her 15-year-old son and then her 21-year-old brother from the neighbour's house next door. "I begged them not to take my boy, I told them that he is just a child, he still watched cartoons on TV; I tried to shield him with my body but they threatened me and took him away. And they also took my brother from the next door house. In the evening their bodies were found in the street, with others who had also been killed."

In Taftanaz I met the families of two 80-year-old men who were killed in their homes during the army incursion into the town on 4 April. One was burned in his home. His wife told me: "I had been staying with relatives across the street and my husband was at home. When I went back home I found it burned down but did not find my husband. I went out and asked the soldiers outside where they had taken him. I thought they had arrested him. A soldier replied 'Go back in and look for him'. I went back and found his remains in a pile of ash."

In Sarmin I met the mother of three young men who were taken from their home in the early morning of 23 March and burned outside the building: "The army came early in the morning, we were all asleep. They took all my three sons who were at home and did not let me follow them outside; every time I tried to go out they pushed me back. When I was able to go outside, after a couple of hours, I found my boys burning in the street. They had been piled on top of each other and had motorbikes piled on top of them and set on fire. I could not approach their bodies until evening because there was so much shooting."

In addition to the human loss, families are having to cope with the loss of their homes and livelihood. Those whose homes and businesses have been burned down or destroyed and who have been left with nothing other than the clothes on their back are relying on the charity of relatives and friends. Some are trying to repair or salvage what they can from their wrecked properties but many are beyond repair. There is no doubt that the burning down of so many homes and businesses – and including medical facilities such as field hospitals and pharmacies – was deliberate, seemingly a combination of revenge and collective punishment.

The extra-judicial executions, the shooting and shelling of residential areas, and the deliberate destruction of homes, businesses and other properties in the Idlib area, are consistent with the pattern of violations inflicted by Syrian forces on the population in other parts of Syria where there have been opposition protests and/or armed opposition. Soldiers, members of the security forces, and the civilian leadership up and down the chain of command should know that such abuses constitute crimes against humanity and the claim that "I was just carrying out orders" will not keep them from being brought to justice – either in Syria or in other countries around the world.

It's a bloody civil war. Of course there are extra-judicial killings! Of course both sides are doing it. Otherwise the ones they let go would take up arms and attack them again later. But Amnesty International has been consistently choosing to back the armed rebels here and ignore the killings done by them, as they have in other places, even though those were the ones who started the war in the first place. They even obliquely admit that many (most?) of the dead have been killed in combat (bolded by me) with syrian army, that it was field (military, rebel) hospitals that were destroyed, but they disguise this inside a report clearly designed to create outrage again only one of the sides, in favor of the other, in favor of yet another "humanitarian war".

NGOs... I doubt there is any not infiltrated by, or directly attached to, intelligence agencies of one or more governments.

 

[Neomega]

Anotehr stupid lie from America, this time from Hilary Clinton:
"Russians are sending "attack" choppers"


Russia's Sergey Lavlov says "what? No. Not true."

And what about George Little, DoD spokesman? He didn't know about them, so he asked Capt. John Kirby about it in a DoD news briefing, here is what Capt. Kirby said:

"CAPT. KIRBY: I am not seeing reporting that indicates the -- that the Russians are providing attack helicopters to the Syrians. I've just not seen that. "

http://www.defense.gov/Transcripts/Transcript.aspx?TranscriptID=5060

But Hilary Clinton knows damn well the truth doesn't matter in America, just perception. So now, according to the average CNN/MSNBC/FOX watching mis-informed over-opinionated political news junkie, Russia is sending Syria attack helicopters. Then they'll post it on all their facebook addict friends feeds, and tell all the kardashian watching zombies this little lie, and what do you know, now half America, a half that thinks they are informed, think Russia is providing Syria with attack choppers.

Although, to prove it would be so simple, just some footage of these phantom choppers, but nope, Americans will just take the word of their glorious leaders. Kim Jung-un, eat your heart out, baby!

This is why America and NATO needs to stay out. The American people, as always are way too ignorant and gullible to have any clue what is going on over there, much less how to fix it.

 

[r16]

today's papers in Turkey report they are refurbished helicopters , returning home after maintenance instead of new , but isolation of target regimes by denying such transfers is a long standing policy . ı believe Serbia still has some of Saddam's MiGs .

 

[Masada]

NGOs... I doubt there is any not infiltrated by, or directly attached to, intelligence agencies of one or more governments.

I wish I'd have thought of that idea because it's freaking awesome like Operation Phoenix brilliant.

 

[Neomega]

I wish I'd have thought of that idea because it's freaking awesome like Operation Phoenix brilliant.

Except it stains the countries reputation, and all charities associated with it are forever in suspect.

Russia already figured it out many years ago. It is no surprise most, if not all, American NGO's are CIA infiltrated. It's not like they even have a choice. If they see something or catch wind of something against the interests of the United States, they'll do what their patriotic conscience tells them to do.

 

[Masada]

You just infiltrate big name international charities?

 

[Glassfan]

Except it stains the countries reputation, and all charities associated with it are forever in suspect.

Russia already figured it out many years ago. It is no surprise most, if not all, American NGO's are CIA infiltrated. It's not like they even have a choice. If they see something or catch wind of something against the interests of the United States, they'll do what their patriotic conscience tells them to do.

You just infiltrate big name international charities?

So, does the CIA have thousands of extra secret employees we don't know about or is the "infiltration" a voluntary, "patriotic", spontaneous act by NGO workers? Flesh it out for me, will ya?

A CNN article (CyberWarriors with Cameras) today suggests the US is helping the rebels (USSD Internet Freedom Grants) by providing them with camera-cellphones with special software to allow video of government atrocities to get to the outside world. These can not only penetrate the Syrian Government's firewall, but also have a panic button which erases everything if one is stopped by the cops or soldiers. This is a little like Afghanistan during the 80's.

 

[say1988]

Of course that still relies on the scene actually being what the rebels say it is. But I am sure they are all totally unbiased.

 

[Glassfan]

Of course that still relies on the scene actually being what the rebels say it is. But I am sure they are all totally unbiased.

Not certain what your point is. Of course the rebels are biased. You have to be partisan and take sides and be, well, rebellious to rebel. Fair-minded, objective people are worthless at that kind of thing - they usually represent the status-quo.

Needless to say (...and I may be wrong about that), video evidence is stronger than hearsay. If a video scene was posed, it would be detectable; inconsistancies would stand out - like on flying-saucer videos. Pictures have more impact than words. And the videos that are coming out are consistant with what western reporters and UN Observers have been saying about the Assad Regime and its' thugs; corroborating evidence.