Syrian Civil War: World Leaders Try Again

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/31/w...ria-to-help-fight-the-islamic-state.html?_r=0


Obama to Send Special Operations Forces to Help Fight ISIS in Syria

By HELENE COOPER and PETER BAKER
OCT. 30, 2015

WASHINGTON — President Obama will deploy a small number of American Special Operations forces to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria to help local forces fight the Islamic State, the White House announced on Friday.

The team will advise and assist opposition forces who are fighting the Islamic State militant group in Syria, providing smoother and quicker access to equipment and logistical help, an official said before the announcement. The decision adds a new level of risk to the Syrian enterprise, as it could bring the Special Operations troops into closer contact with the Islamic State, even if they are in Kurdish territory.

While administration officials plan to characterize the deployment as an enhancement of current strategy, it is actually a huge shift for a president who has said repeatedly that he will not put American combat boots on the ground in Syria.

An administration official said that the number of Special Forces troops who would deploy to northern Syria would be “fewer than 50” and that their mission would be to “help coordinate local ground forces and coalition efforts to counter” the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL.

In addition, Mr. Obama has authorized deploying A-10 Warthog planes and F-15 fighter jets to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey, and has instructed his advisers to consult with the Iraqi government about establishing a Special Operations task force to further efforts to target Islamic State leaders there. He also ordered more military assistance to Jordan and Lebanon.

But the administration official, who provided the information before the official announcement on the condition of anonymity, emphasized that Mr. Obama saw the military efforts as supporting Secretary of State John Kerry’s push for a diplomatic and political settlement to the Syrian war, with talks underway in Vienna.

“Our intensified counter-ISIL campaign will support those efforts by continuing to strengthen opposition partners on the ground, while also coordinating the efforts of our coalition partners,” the official said.

Other steps were outlined earlier this week by Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They said the United States would provide more equipment to groups fighting the Islamic State in Syria and increase efforts to help Iraq retake the city of Ramadi.


Wait, I thought the President told us that there would be "no boots on the ground", that "American forces will not have a combat mission", that "It will not involve American combat troops fighting on foreign soil".

Also, haven't the Russians been bombing Kurdish forces in northern Syria? And now the President wants to place US Special Ops troops with Kurdish forces in northern Syria. What could go wrong?
 
Also, haven't the Russians been bombing Kurdish forces in northern Syria?
No, they haven't.
Anticipated Kurdish advance to Raqqa could help SAA forces to deblock Kuweires airbase East of Aleppo. For now there's no fighting between Kurds and Assad army.

But to avoid accidents, USA and Russia will probably need to divide spheres of influence in Syria. Sign secret agreement and all that stuff.
 
No, they haven't.
Anticipated Kurdish advance to Raqqa could help SAA forces to deblock Kuweires airbase East of Aleppo. For now there's no fighting between Kurds and Assad army.

I stand corrected.


But to avoid accidents, USA and Russia will probably need to divide spheres of influence in Syria. Sign secret agreement and all that stuff.

I think the best way for the US to avoid accidents would be for the US not be conducting airstrikes in Syria or Iraq and to not have ground forces/advisors in Syria.
 
I think the best way for the US to avoid accidents would be for the US not be conducting airstrikes in Syria or Iraq and to not have ground forces/advisors in Syria.
Couldn't agree more. But it seems for USA it's also becoming the question of prestige. If they just leave now, it is perceived by some fractions in the government as a PR defeat, especially in case if Russia's intervention will be effective.
 
But it seems for USA it's also becoming the question of prestige. If they just leave now, it is perceived by some fractions in the government as a PR defeat, especially in case if Russia's intervention will be effective.


Yes, that is quite probably true.
That is what happens when your leaders set red lines that they have no intention of enforcing. If you don't want your prestige or credibility to suffer, then don't set red lines, dont make commitments that you are not ready to back up.

The short term loss in prestige may happen, but I believe that is less painful than deepening the US's involvemnent in a this quagmire.
 
No, they haven't.
Anticipated Kurdish advance to Raqqa could help SAA forces to deblock Kuweires airbase East of Aleppo. For now there's no fighting between Kurds and Assad army.
For now. I have my doubts that it will last. The Rojavan charter enshrines freedom of speech, and the Kurds seem to take it seriously. At the same time, they insist that they're still a part of Syria and have no intention of seceding. So what happens when some people in the cantons start criticizing Assad? He won't take kindly to one of "his" regions becoming a hotbed of dissent. In the long run, this means that either the Rojavan cantons forbid criticism of the government or allow government police to arrest critics in their territory and drag them off to the torture chambers, or Assad tolerates criticism (unlikely), or Rojava rebels. Unless, of course, Assad is left permanently weakened to the point that he can't do anything about it.
 
So what happens when some people in the cantons start criticizing Assad?
Nobody will care.
Even assuming that Assad will be able to
- Defeat ISIS and Al-Nusra insurgency completely (which is not a given)
- After that, stay in power (which is not a given, either)
To provoke military response, Kurds will have to start their own insurgency. If it will be just some 'criticism', which doesn't threaten Assad positions or country's integrity, he will not risk confrontation with USA. Russia won't approve action against Kurds either. I would say that the Kurds are more threatened from Turkey side, than from Syria.

And judging from recent diplomatic negotiations, if everything goes smoothly Syria will have coalition government with presence of all major ethno-religious groups. The only disagreement is the fate of Assad - USA and Saudi Arabia demand that he must leave, Russia insists that his position must be decided by Syrian people.
 
Nobody will care.
Even assuming that Assad will be able to
- Defeat ISIS and Al-Nusra insurgency completely (which is not a given)
- After that, stay in power (which is not a given, either)
To provoke military response, Kurds will have to start their own insurgency. If it will be just some 'criticism', which doesn't threaten Assad positions or country's integrity, he will not risk confrontation with USA. Russia won't approve action against Kurds either. I would say that the Kurds are more threatened from Turkey side, than from Syria.
Turkey is definitely a threat as long as Erdogan is in power--but I wouldn't discount Assad. He's making a comeback, and I have my doubts that the US or Russia would seriously try to stop him in the event that he decided to put down a Rojavan rebellion. If critics of the regime flocked to Rojava for safety, and if Assad wins the civil war and retakes most of Syria, I don't see why he would allow his opponents to spread dissent in safety. He's never done that.

And judging from recent diplomatic negotiations, if everything goes smoothly Syria will have coalition government with presence of all major ethno-religious groups. The only disagreement is the fate of Assad - USA and Saudi Arabia demand that he must leave, Russia insists that his position must be decided by Syrian people.
His position is being decided by the Syrian people! That's what this civil war is all about! It's just that the Russian government doesn't like a lot of Syrians' answers of "we don't want Assad." And, in a country where politically opposing the leader can get you beaten, jailed, or killed, and where the leader cannot be replaced peacefully, violent revolution, leaving the country, or submission are the only options.
 
His position is being decided by the Syrian people! That's what this civil war is all about!
I though it was about his neighbors, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and to some extent, Turkey, who decided to overthrow inconvenient Alawi rule and sending arms and jihadists, to support Sunni rebellion. But may be I was wrong and those guys cut heads and burn people alive for the sake of Human Rights and Freedom. In any case, civil war is not a proper way to decide country's fate. The fact of civil war in the country doesn't necessary indicates that its government is not supported by majority of people and must be replaced.
 
ok , let's be the first with the conspiracy stuff . The plane [that crashed] of course belongs a company where some Turkish individual is the major shareholder . The guy's Turkish company has been taken to court by Iran , with claims that the funds were stolen from the Iranian oil sales by Iranian co-owners and the company should be turned over to Iran . An Egyptian Goverment Minister has supposedly declared the plane crashed after entering Turkish airspace . ı don't think we are supposed to own Sinai , nor aware of any Air Defence Identication Zone . And just do not let the smarties hear this , for they are sure to claim claims and demand an invasion of Egypt to save our land and save some Sunni Brothers while at it , you know to rule Egypt (under our enlightened guidance) as a colony .

a concerted effort of some size convinces me to believe this would happen . From yesterday's newspaper ı learn the entire human race was cloned by aliens to dig gold in South Africa . Really , the aliens can travel all that emptiness between stars and they need monkeys on the trees altered to have a brain to use the shovel and the pick-axe . Just as an entry to the delight of the week ... The Men in Black are active in Turkey ! We learn 5 to 6 years ago an UFO crashed in a village in the West , the frightened family called the Jandarma , the Military branch the carries the policing of the rural areas and in just 20 minutes they arrived . You see , the glorious New Turkey can actually track UFOs , so unlike the idiotic Uncle Sam and be ready to act immediately ! The alien was taken away with all the wreckage ... Then , let's see , everything was turned over to US , to be taken to Area 51 ... A big one as far as PR gaffes go . If they are Americans to take stuff to America , how they can operate in the New Turkey which is so heroically patriotic ? If they are Turkish dudes clad Black , isn't it high treason ? You of course never heard this before now that the family was threatened . That they should never say a word to anyone and the guy who tells this on TV wows he will keep their identities safe . After identifiying them living in a lonely village near a small town with their houses 6 to 700 meters away from the nearest house ? Of course no pen size lights to make you forget , people are all barbarians in Turkey . They threaten to come back and cut throats if anything happenz ... ı was all primed up for the glorious declaration that this new brave Nation had shot it down with F-16s but the guy on TV is an UFOlogist , the glory of untouchable aliens is how he makes a living .

he rounded it up with the reminder that CIA asked for all the UFO files in Turkey some years back . Related to yours idiotly of course and an event back in 2001 when there was this airshow in Izmir and ı was there and asked an officer where the planes were and he laughed at me . Why , did you expect that he wouldn't ? Sure enough the newspapers next month had it that an instructor pilot in a T-37 had a dogfight for minutes and minutes with an object . T-37 is of course a poor thing , called a dog-whistle in USAF service ; the dastardly UFO ran away when F-16s were scrambled ... Didn't happen of course . If it had , the Air Force would remember it at the height of that Ergenekon sillyness when yours idiotly had regular overflights by F-16s dipping the wingtip to make sure that ı would see they were seeing me . For -you know- Lord Vader and stuff taking a care for me and to make me feel less miserable in that litany of failures which is my life , ı went to a strategy site and said all those coup-plotters were leaving all those incredible documents to take the reputation of this country down and down were doing that only because they were guaranteed a jail-free card by the US . This country had the Counter-revolution 'cause every smart person in the country knew there were idiots who would oppose the stealing of the Iraqi oil by "brothership" with the Kurds , on grounds of principle or mere hate or whatever . Which was a full scale co-operation , soon modified to destruction of neighbours as Nation States , because it's soooooooooooooooooooo scary to face America . Who schemes and plots to destroy us because they want to establish 'stan to steal some more oil and whatever . No , ı did not send a dogfight cylinder to dogfight a T-37 , just a coincidence , just a thing ı made up , establishing a connection between a real thing that happened and a newspaper article that came up inside the regular parameters of a long running American conspiracy that aims to weaken moral conceptions that might oppose amoral notions . Like destroying whole cities in a pre-emptive nuclear strike ; and everybody copies whatever America does anyhow . Though do not expect probes into nether areas in Turkey , we are famous all over the world for once our villagers threw rocks at this alien which was going around and forced him go away ...

all happening only because post # 3000 lacked a bit of strenght here or there . Must be why we also see the only kozmonaut of Syria on Turkish TVs , declaring he couldn't stand the tyranny of Esad Regime either . He's even ready to talk of his days in space to a younger audience . So , here it is :

ho ho ho hell no
we won't go




somebody really owes the Saudis one .
 
Not to mention he is hypocritically ...

the US State Department does not react my regular reference to the President of the United States as a spineless jerk only because he is heroically fighting evilocity . His legacy in history will more along the lines of the Arabic term that means Father of Hearteaters ; as mentioned ı don't myself speak the language .
 
For now. I have my doubts that it will last. The Rojavan charter enshrines freedom of speech, and the Kurds seem to take it seriously. At the same time, they insist that they're still a part of Syria and have no intention of seceding. So what happens when some people in the cantons start criticizing Assad? He won't take kindly to one of "his" regions becoming a hotbed of dissent. In the long run, this means that either the Rojavan cantons forbid criticism of the government or allow government police to arrest critics in their territory and drag them off to the torture chambers, or Assad tolerates criticism (unlikely), or Rojava rebels. Unless, of course, Assad is left permanently weakened to the point that he can't do anything about it.

Assad is left permanently weakened. Even if Assad wins, things are unlikely to return to the status quo. In fact, to some extent, Assad already caved in to many of the demands of the moderate rebels so the very nature of the Syrian state has already changed. Upon winning, he may as well go Pinochet by giving himself legal immunity, then step down and hold elections.
 
Hope you are right. Russia may even beef up air support to some extent, but there are also limits to the amount of resources it will invest in Syria. And Russians are sensitive to casualties abroad, more than Americans are.

oh , no doubt about that . The war with Russia simply means the assets available for immediate strikes on the US increases 35% , due to lack of a need for respecting sovereignity . Thank you America , will you please bring in the Chinese as well ?

meanwhile after the lack of change in Turkey after the elections , where , say , a 38% might have meant Turkish intervention in Syria to get those pockets and Esad , will Moscow please save the Syrians it has put into a cauldron ?
 
The Rojavan charter enshrines freedom of speech, and the Kurds seem to take it seriously.

the strategy sites do not even try hide that the seperatists first shut up or shot anybody that didn't share their vision as the fighting was raging elsewhere in Syria . The Freedom of Speech is so true , now that there's only one voice speaking .
 
You are ruining the image of Freedom-Loving Moderate Opposition, which struggle for Human Rights and Democracy.
 
and Russia would be doin' far more humanity if they were to crush this "moderates" beckoning for Turkish entry instead of talkin' of armin' the said "Freedom-Loving Moderate Opposition, which struggle for Human Rights and Democracy" ... But then it's surely my thing about Kurds establishing a state on everybody elses bones . For the promise of one day fighting us ...
 
...... So this would explain the deployment of US special forces.
Kinda a lost cause right now, would rather exit and leave it to the Russian to clean up this mess

New U.S.-Backed Alliance in Syria Exists in Name Only

EIN EISSA, Syria — After abandoning its last effort to train and arm Syrian rebels to fight the Islamic State, the Obama administration has turned to a newly announced alliance, the Syrian Democratic Forces, to beat the jihadists in northern Syria.

But 10 days of interviews and front-line visits across northern Syria with many of the forces in the alliance made clear that so far it exists in name only, and that the political and logistical challenges it faces are daunting.

Though it is intended to begin clawing back territory from the Islamic State in mostly Arab areas, nearly all of the group’s fighting power comes from ethnic Kurdish militias. The Kurdish military strength in the area means that Kurds set the agenda, and many clearly look down on their Arab partners.

While world attention since the Syria conflict began has focused on fighting between the forces of President Bashar al-Assad, Sunni rebels and the Islamic State, the Kurds have taken advantage of the chaos to carve out an autonomous zone.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/w...column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news
 
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