Tech Balance 1.18

Is that runaway China here with us in room? Actually i saw it only once, since 1.18. Now more where no China at all, and in my games constant pressure on China leave thier cities (building) more un development, compare other world
As for Persia - it's more how Rome doing. If it collapse too early and there will be no Byzantine - so yes, Persia could runaway.
 
I haven't seen a runaway China in 1.18 recently either, they always collapse over and over again.

In 3000 BC, I do see super Persias and super Kushans, but they never last long. In 1700 AD, runaway France, Britain, and the Netherlands are also things (though the Netherlands is doomed to collapse to core because French and German culture always overpowers their tiles).
 
Can you point me to suitable dates where I would see runaway Persia or Kushans before they collapse?
 
Can you point me to suitable dates where I would see runaway Persia or Kushans before they collapse?
In my experience, if Kushans and Persia survive past 200 AD they're likely to start their runway tech acceleration. However, the spawn of the Arabs almost always does them in. I don't have any saves to prove it yet though.
 
I rolled up 5 Prussia starts on the 600 AD scenario. As instructed, they're all normal difficulty, normal speed. The scoreboards and saves are attached if you just want to see those, game-specific observations are in the spoiler tags. The paterns I noticed will follow.

The general patterns I noticed:
  • France and the Netherlands are the typical European tech leaders, being a row or two ahead of the rest
  • Portugal, Italy, England, Poland, and the HRE are a bit behind the curve but not painfully so, Spain is either a global power (2/5 games) or laughing stock (3/5 games), there's no in-between (look how they massacred my boy)
  • Amsterdam was the Protestant holy city in every single game, because...
  • Europeans in general ignore the "peaceful" techs like Academia and Heritage until they're forced to research them, the Islamic and Asian civilizations are the opposite, which I suppose makes sense for gameplay
  • Ottomans and Mughals are generally beasts by score, military size, population, and wealth, but are starting to fall behind in techs by 1700, I think they're in a good place
  • Moors are crazy strong in all regards if they keep Cordoba, which they often do, typically being in the "second rank" of techers like Portugal and Italy
  • Japan is just starting to catch up to the Euros in 1700, maybe a little too soon, because in my later-era games they're often snatching secular wonders by the 1700s and 1800s, being a row or two of techs ahead
  • Russia has a tendency towards being backwards (even for Russia) in 1700
  • Not a tech but the Mughals resistance towards being Muslim is notable.
Going all the way back to my Prussia survey on page 1, I've got 5 more Prussia games that incorporate the git updates through December 17th. I rolled these before the latest patch, but I don't think the latest patch has anything to do with tech rate. These were all regent/normal on the 600 AD start, of course.

Spoiler Prussia 6 :

Prussia 6.png
  • Ottomans are top dogs by score, and keeping up in tech. They were first to Combined Arms in 1615 and are working on Geography. They've got Civil Liberties and Horticulture too. They never conquered Jerusalem, let alone the Hejaz, Mesopotamia, or Egypt. Instead they went north into Poland.
  • Mongolia was first to Logistics (1360) and Exploration (1380). Lol.
  • Sweden was first to Firearms in 1450.
  • France looks like it's doing well by score, but lost Lyon and Marseille to Spain (I see them losing these two cities a lot to Spain or HRE, does Spain's war map even reach into southern France?). Tech wise, they're keeping up, with all of the first tier of Renaissance and most of the second tier researched. They've got Rome, and colonies in North America and the Caribbean (there's a poor Spanish settler that arrived on San Juan the same turn French culture arrived there, oof), and a very rare Ivory Coast colony! The loss of Lyon and Marseille doesn't seem to have slowed them down. (Marseille sucks anyway, until you get that aluminum mine next to it. And then it's just mid.)
  • Russia made it past Kazan and into Siberia! I don't see the AI settle Omsk and Novonikolayevsk often, usually it stops at Tyumen. Sweden's constant founding of Viborg will block them out of St. Petersburg unfortunately, and Portugal of all civs owns Kiev and Kharabali/Sarai - repeating once again that I think Kharabali/Sarai should be autorazed when Mongols collapse.
  • Spain isn't doing so well. They haven't finished the first row of Renaissance techs, and despite having Cordoba, they've focused more on European wars with France than colonialism. Havana is their only colony.
  • England has most of the second row of techs and is just behind France in the race to Replaceable Parts. They've settled the American east coast from South Carolina to Nova Scotia.
  • HRE got Academia in 1510, within a decade of the real Reformation. You love to see it.
  • Portugal's adventures on the steppe have already been mentioned. This has pushed them into overextension. They lost northern Brazil to the French and the Dutch, but got the southern part. They don't have Printing but have made deep inroads to the Renaissance techs. Portugal is starting to fall behind, right on schedule.
  • Netherlands is doing great, they made it first to Economics (1630) and Hydraulics (1968). They have not built their trading company national wonder nor do I see any sign of their company conquerors in the East Indies.
  • Italy was the first to Cartography (1345), Optics (1540), Scientific Method (1585) and Geology (1635), they're aiming for Hydraulics. Italy got Conqs on both the Aztecs and Inca, and proceeded to do nothing but conquer a handful of their cities and let the rest collapse into a grey blob of natives that no other civ has touched. Snoozefest! They're overextended because they lost a core city to Austria and are holding onto those Aztec and Inca cities.
  • China is collapsed.
  • Celts are alive! I've never seen them live so long before.


Spoiler Prussia 7 :

Prussia 7.png
  • England number 1??? Yes, because they got conqs on both the Aztecs and Inca. They finished off the Aztecs but only took Ecuador from the Incas, who they didn't vassalize. They founded Washington as their only American colony, which I've never seen before, and they have two Indian cities thanks to their trading company conqs. They were first to Optics (1495), Geography (1530), Economics (1585), Horticulture (1620), and Civil Liberties (1645). They've got Geology and Replaceable Parts too, once they research Urban Planning they'll only have the third row techs left. Unfortunately their adventures in Mexico and Ecuador have greatly overextended them.
  • The Ottomans are number 2, despite not owning anything in Europe past Constantinople, or Baghdad, or Mecca, or Egypt. At least they got Jerusalem. They were first to Combined Arms (1610) and Social Contract (1683). They've got most of the second Renaissance row and are going for Replaceable Parts.
  • Mongolia was first to Logistics (1340) and Exploration (1400). Again.
  • Russia's a little bit backwards, missing Exploration and Academia, and working on Combined Arms. They haven't gotten deeper into Siberia than Tyumen, but they've got Kiev, Riga, and Kharabali/Sarai (for once!). Viborg is blocking St. Petersburg, and the AI will never raze it in order to get one more core city. Sad!
  • France has all their mainland cities and is conquering southern India with trading company conqs, you love to see it. Their colonies are New Orleans, Speightstown, and Cayenne. No one's touched Hispaniola, sadly. Tech wise, they were first to Firearms (1410!!!), Academia (1535), Scientific Method (1600), Physics (1625!!!), and Urban Planning (1662). France being first to these vital military techs makes a lot of sense. They were the big blue blob of Europe until 1815 after all, barring some temporary embarrassments at the hands of the Plantagenets and Hapsburgs. For some reason they're building cottages on hills?
  • Spain is a disappointment. My initial judgments about the update might have been premature. They've failed to take Cordoba and the Philippines, Havana, and San Antonio are their only colonies in 1700. The Spanish Empire should be at its height! They were first to Replaceable Parts (1668) at least. Otherwise they're beginning to struggle in the tech race. I'm starting to think their lack of productive Atlantic ports may be a large part of their problem to expand - Moorish culture blocks the Straits of Gibraltar essentially forever unless they collapse or get vassalized.
  • The Netherlands has New York, Concord, northern Brazil, and Cape Town. Pretty good showing so far. But once again there's no sign of their trading company conqs, despite having Economics researched. They were first to Hydraulics in 1698.
  • Portugal has their usual Brazilian colonies and Ceylon, they're getting kicked out of Malaya by Britain. They've researched all the way up to Geology but are lacking in the second row of techs.
  • Italy is still bottled up in Lombardy in the peninsula, but they have Split and Epidamnos (!). Looks like Pella/Thessalonika got razed by barbs. Italy has Physics and Geology but none of the second row techs that aren't prerequisites for those.
  • Japan is building the Louvre. Has anyone ever seen France build that wonder?
  • China is collapsed.


Spoiler Prussia 8 :

Prussia 8.png
  • This world has something remarkable going on - every third row Renaissance tech except Measurement and Hydraulics has been discovered somewhere in the world!
  • Ottomans back on top. This time they've got Egypt, Hejaz, and Yemen! They've got Azov and Kiev too. No Hesperides though lmao, no one wants that worthless city, not even the AI. (Is there a worse canon city in DoC? Even Chichen Itza has a bit of production now thanks to that rubber.) Back to Turkey: they were first to Statecraft (1540) and Combined Arms (1595). They're more than halfway through their second row of techs, and have Replaceable Parts. No sick man of Europe here yet. Amazingly, the AI switched out of Fanaticism (to Syncretism) before they totally cleansed their empire of other religions. I wonder if the AI will ever use their UP?
  • The Mughals are actually blazing ahead in techs too. Heritage (1485), Civil Liberties (1595), Urban Planning (1640), Sociology (1662), they were the first to these. Pretty good showing for an empire usually in decline by 1700.
  • Mongolia got Logistics (1355) and Exploration (1380) first.
  • Russia has Yekaterinburg but go no further into Siberia. They also have Crimea, culturally surrounded by Ottomans on all sides (Iran owns Kharabali/Sarai). Viborg continues to block St. Petersburg. They're almost done with the first row of techs and have Combined Arms too.
  • France put a cottage on their wheat and is building a cottage on their cows. Why is the AI like this? For some reason Portugal has ignored Brazil, leaving it entirely to France, and France also owns almost all of the Caribbean. They're conquering southern India too. They were first to Scientific Method (1635) and Physics (1653). Metallurgy is an available tech to research, as they just got Geology too.
  • Netherlands has not done anything exceptional this game, no first techs anywhere. They have some American colonies, Suriname, and Elmina. Once again, they have Economics, but there's no sign of Trading Company conquerors. Does the AI for Netherlands actually have to build the national wonder to get those guys?
  • Spain not only failed to take Cordoba, they lost Alicante (it has European building art) to the Moors! They managed to found Havana, Jacksonville, and Montevideo, plus the Philippines trading company colony, which is somehow more than they did in the last two games. They haven't even finished the Medieval techs in 1700, they're still missing Humanities, Printing, and Judiciary. I don't even know what to say.
  • England is once again surging more than Jeb Bush in the tech tree. They were first to Economics (1470!!!), Optics (1520), Geography (1550), Replaceable Parts (1653), and Geology (1677). Like France, the way is open to Metallurgy, but they've gone back for Horticulture. I think they collapsed to core, because their only cities are London and York, and there's indies and barbs in Ireland, Scotland, India, and formerly Singapore according to their world map. How did England collapse to core before 1700?
  • Portugal has ignored Brazil in favor of Newfoundland. Other than that they have the usual colonies in Angola, Ceylon, and Malaya. They're missing large chunks of the first and second tech rows but are going for Geology.
  • Italy once again got the New World conqs. They've got Guatemala, Ecuador, and northern Peru. They also took Rome and held Split against the Ottomans. They don't lead the tech race like England and France, but they've got Geology and are aiming for Replaceable parts.
  • China's alive!!! They're unstable, but at +8, so they'll get a boost in the next check. I'm not sure what made them unstable to start with. They've got a handful of Renaissance techs, Horticulture looks like it was a priority for them. They eschewed Statecraft in favor of Economics though. They haven't built the Porcelain Tower either, sad.


Spoiler Prussia 9 :

Prussia 9.png
  • Ottomans on top, as usual. This time they've got almost their historic empire, except for Mecca and North Africa (Ethiopia took Hesperides, this might be the first time I've seen a civ take that city). They haven't been first to a tech since Firearms in 1485 though. They've got Combined Arms and Horticulture in the second row and are missing Academia from the first. Unfortunately they didn't drop Fanaticism soon enough and lost Orthodoxy in Constantinople, blocking them from Topkapi Palace and the Blue Mosque.
  • Mongolia got Logistics in 1355, but not Exploration...
  • Russia made it as far as Omsk in Siberia, and took Kharabali/Sarai. Azov is in Turkish hand and Kiev belongs to France, which I know I've seen several times before. They're keeping up in the tech race and aiming for Replaceable Parts.
  • France is a tech giant, they're nearly done with the Renaissance (only missing Civil Liberties in the second row) and are gunning for Thermodynamics. They were first to Combined Arms (1620), Replaceable Parts (1656), Measurement (1692), and Hydraulics (1698), with Physics in 4 turns.
  • England is about to collapse. Maybe it's their huge cities in Ireland and Scotland (33 pop combined) versus their 22 core pop. Maybe they need to get Scotland as core back after a certain point? They were doing very well in techs too, Cartography (1360), Economics (1490), Optics (1530), and Geography (1555), but have slowed down since.
  • Netherlands is not remarkable in this game, they're working on Hydraulics though. Where are those trading company conquerors?
  • Spain managed to take Cordoba, and even settled Havana, Santo Domingo, Panama, and Montevideo (plus Philippines colonies). They were first to Exploration (1435!) and later Horticulture (1620). Still, a lackluster global performance.
  • Italy got Aztec conquerors, and Inca appear to have collapse on their own without losing any cities to Euros. They were first to Scientific Method (1630), and Geology (1650).
  • Portugal is showing a strong game, with Brazil and Angola, and keeping up in the tech race. They're racing France for Physics.
  • China is alive! For some reason they're the Song, despite having their capital in Beijing and owning more or less the same cities as the Ming last game. Tibet never seems to have spawned. They've got Logistics and Exploration and are working on Economics.


Spoiler Prussia 10 :

Prussia 10.png
  • England number 1 again, but collapsing, again. 20 core pop versus 43 periphery pop in the British Isles alone. That's not counting the Canadian Maritime colonies, the Bahamas, Ghana, most of India, and Malaya. They got Exploration (1440), Optics (1525), Geography (1550), Economics (1575), Combined Arms (1630), and Replaceable Parts (1645) first.
  • Ottomans have most of their historical empire, except North Africa (they still don't want Hesperides), Yemen, and Mesopotamia. They were first to Firearms in 1440 but that was it.
  • Mongolia got Logistics in 1400.
  • Despite a respectable tech showing (first to Urban Planning and Civil Liberties) the Mughals are collapsing under the equally collapsing Englishmen's onslaught.
  • HRE got Academia in 1560, Scientific Method in 1840, and Geology in 1698. Not bad for an empire about to become a one city civ.
  • France has the Caribbean besides the Bahamas and New Orleans, but is behind on tech compared to the above games. They're in a tough war with the HRE and much of eastern France shows signs of extreme pillaging. They're working on Physics but haven't been first to a tech besides Horticulture in 1668.
  • Spain is a mess, once again it's failed to take Cordoba and has only the Philippines and Montevideo for colonies. They do not have Judiciary and are working on Geography.
  • Portugal is having a better game, they got the Aztec conquerors, have most of Brazil, and colonies in Angola and Ceylon. They also have Kiev (again) and Minsk of all cities. They're gunning for Geology but are missing Statecraft and many second row techs. England collapsed to core when I switched to Portugal to see their techs, lol.
  • Netherlands isn't doing anything remarkable again, they've got some colonies in North America and Cape Town, they got Hydraulics in 1698 (again). Really, where are those conquerors of theirs?
  • Italy got Inca conquerors and has Rome. Nothing remarkable besides.
  • China is collapsed.


What trends have I noticed?
  • Once again, France and the Netherlands are frequently tech leaders, but surpassed by England now. The lead isn't as extreme as it used to be, though.
  • Portugal, Italy, HRE, and Sweden are the middle tier European techers, sometimes joined by Russia.
  • Russia is doing a little better with expansion now, but still struggling. Random Europeans love to grab Kiev and Kharabalia. I maintain Kharabali/Sarai should be autorazed on the Mongol collapse, freeing up space for Astrakhan (Russia can found it, or it can be a barbarian spawn to encourage Russia to attack it, like Kazan).
  • Spain and Norse are the sick men of Europe. This is appropriate for the Norse, but 1500-1700 should be Spain's age of utmost relevance. Instead we're seeing the opposite in the majority of games I've run. The additional core area for Spain post-Cordoba conquest is a huge boon to the player, but the AI seems unable to use it. Spain struggles to build a fleet, as they have no good Atlantic ports, and their Mediterranean ports are blocked by Moorish culture in almost all games. Therefore Spain's colonial empire is meager and I haven't seen them get conquerors without player help in quite some time. My suggestion for a potential fix: If Spain owns Cordoba by 1500, I think it should the city should automatically move to Sevilla's tile to represent the shift in economic relevance from Cordoba to Sevilla in the age of exploration. This would give Spain a good city with Atlantic access and maybe prompt them to do more on the colonial scene. That is, IF Spain manages to take Cordoba. As we see above, this is not guaranteed like it was in 1.17.
  • Europeans are no longer ignoring peaceful techs. In fact they love Horticulture. I'm happy to see this.
  • Japan is no longer tech leader, they're definitely a little behind.
  • China is still MIA in most games. Something is making them very unstable in the 1500s and 1600s, but I don't know what. The expanded core on respawn should be keeping them alive, right?
  • Hindu/Buddhist Mughals is much rarer than in the past, and by 1700 they're usually on their way out, which they should be
  • Ottomans are reluctant to conquer past Antioch/Mosul in many games, leaving Egypt and Arabia full of indies. I wonder why? They're also keep abreast in the tech race, which I think is good, because the Ottomans didn't become the sick man of Europe until the 1800s.
  • Where are the Dutch conquerors? The VOC should be spreading like a cancer across Indonesia, massacring and enslaving the native peoples everywhere it goes in the name of trade monopoly. There's not a peep of them in 1700, though. Do they need to build the trading company national wonder like the player now?
  • England's got their 1.17 tech rate back, but they don't have the core to support the empire they make. It doesn't help the Celts spam up to four cities in Ireland when only one can cover every resource on it. This is leading to a regular and very premature collapse of the English colonial empire by 1700. If England's core got expanded to include Scotland, I wouldn't mind if they got a tech rate nerf.
  • Overall, Western Europe minus Iberia is on the verge of the industrial revolution by 1700. There's still time for the civs to fill in missing late Renaissance techs before moving onto the Industrial era, which in DOC seems to cover the American Revolution through, roughly, WWI (the 1930s Empire State Building is behind an industrial tech but 1910s biplanes are behind a global tech, it's not a clean fit). With this in mind, I think the global tech rates are in a very good place. It's individual civs failing to perform to their historical standards like England and Spain that need further adjustment.
 
Helping England with their core is definitely on the agenda, but assuming that they do not collapse, isn't there a problem with their tech rate?

About Spain, I have considered before to move Cordoba to the west to give them another coastal city. Regardless, I am not sure we understand what their actual problem is. We know they seem to do quite well at discovering Exploration (outcomes where they lose to the Moors notwithstanding) and I looked at them building/upgrading caravels before and they manage to achieve that as well. Building their global empire is mostly based on getting the Aztec and Inca conquerors, so the number of port cities should not be that determinative. So what is the actual issue? Do they fail to explore west?

I am also wondering about those frequent Spanish/French wars. Do we know who instigates them? It's not what Spain should get up to, at least not until they have their global empire.

About the Dutch conquerors: the AI conquerors get triggered with both Economics and Replacement Parts.
 
Helping England with their core is definitely on the agenda, but assuming that they do not collapse, isn't there a problem with their tech rate?
Buffing England's core would be very helpful to them, to the extent I think they need a tech rate nerf. Stronger core = more enduring empire = more :science: over time.
About Spain, I have considered before to move Cordoba to the west to give them another coastal city. Regardless, I am not sure we understand what their actual problem is. We know they seem to do quite well at discovering Exploration (outcomes where they lose to the Moors notwithstanding) and I looked at them building/upgrading caravels before and they manage to achieve that as well. Building their global empire is mostly based on getting the Aztec and Inca conquerors, so the number of port cities should not be that determinative. So what is the actual issue? Do they fail to explore west?
I have noticed Spain fails to explore west in my casual games. I don't see them build caravels as regularly as Italy, France, England, or Portugal, but that could just be my own experiences. I can give them a handful of caravels and they'll either sit near Spain (guarding against Barbary pirates? guarding against Moors? the French?) or they'll wander off into the South Atlantic, going anywhere but to Mexico or Peru.
I am also wondering about those frequent Spanish/French wars. Do we know who instigates them? It's not what Spain should get up to, at least not until they have their global empire.
I have a hunch it might have to do with Italy. In some of my France games, if I own Milan or Rome, Spain will often declare war and demand the Italian city if I try to make peace. Spain will sometimes declare war if I don't give them open borders to go to Italy (HRE will sometimes do this too). In 1.18, Spain is much more interested in their historical territories in Sicily and Naples than it was in prior versions. Perhaps if France won't open borders (as Charlemagne is reluctant to do), then the Spanish AI decides to secure a passage through the French Riviera so it can send troops to Italy. This is just a hunch though, it'll require more careful observations of autoplay.
About the Dutch conquerors: the AI conquerors get triggered with both Economics and Replacement Parts.
I have a feeling I should have known this, but this makes a lot of sense. Netherlands AI is more interested in Hydraulics, presumable for the Polder, than Replaceable Parts.
 
I don't think the AI is capable of figuring out missing land connections, but Italy being on the Spanish war map might play a role.
 
Re: Spain not sailing west

I ran a random game to see how Spain performed against Cordoba (it didn't) and then watched the caravel go literally anywhere but Mexico or Peru. Maybe they're afraid of the hostile natives in Yucatan?
 

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On the exploration subject, in my many attempts at Inca I was never discovered by Spain. Before I figured out how to send a scout across the rest of South America I turtled in, so basically played like the AI. I was contacted by Italy, Malaya, Java, Korea, and Portugal. They always came from the west, not through the Strait of Magellan, so they spawned on Tucume. Most of the time I wasn't discovered until late 1500's - 1600's. I believe one game went as late as ~1670 without contact. Can weight be given to exploration values? Would changing the war map help this, e.g., can the AI put value on land it hasn't discovered yet?
 
There is no AI scripting for where they go to explore at all. To be honest, I don't know how its logic works at all. Perhaps war map values can be leveraged to direct the AI.
 
I took a brief look at the exploration logic. The first thing I noticed is that there is no dedicated exploration algorithm for sea units, and instead land and sea units share the same algorithm with only a few special cases for sea units included. There is not much intelligence in the algorithm and instead it is simply picking an arbitrary tile in the surrounding, with a bias for goody huts, sight increasing tiles (hills) and defense bonuses (e.g. forests) in that order. That works well enough for land exploration which is okay to be a little random anyway.

But for sea units that basically means a lot of random movement because there are no distinguishing features on water. I assume this is because sea exploration rarely matters in your typical BtS game, which is usually set up so that there is no new world. It also fits with my experience that it is easy to get circumnavigation first even if the AI beats you to caravels.

So I think for DoC we need a dedicated sea exploration algorithm. It does not need to be smart but should have the following basic properties:
  1. if surrounded by water, it should attempt to keep pushing into the same direction
  2. if on a coast, it should follow to coast and explore nearby unrevealed coastal tiles
  3. revealed sea tiles that are close but require a long path to be reached should be heavily prioritised
The third condition should ensure that the AI tries to circumnavigate peninsulas/subcontinents. In particular it should push the AI to try to circumnavigate South America, which it currently does poorly at.

I am also considering to give the first condition a westwards bias so that Europeans have a much higher propensity to discover the Americas via the Atlantic than anyone would have from the Pacific direction. Let's see how it goes. I never implemented a full unit AI routine myself but it should not be too hard to outdo something as simple as the current state.
 
Not expressly related to unit AI but on the topic of Exploration broadly:

One thing I've been keeping an eye on is Unit Mission Roles, and in the course a common sight is several caravels bearing the ATTACK_SEA tag. In recent memory a scan of Spain's unit roster showed something like 1 out of 5-6 total caravels assigned to EXPLORE_SEA. Ya know now that I mention this I'm reminded that I'd intended to investigate a suspicion of if and how this could relate to Upgrades; that is, for example, if roles change or is the previous retained. It stuck out to me that Caravels present a case of being the upgrade for two different unit types.

EDIT: Ran a super-crude quick test. Loaded rando Portugal game from 1520. WB'd a Cog, Heavy Galley, and Carrack. Unit roles in order were ASSAULT_SEA, ATTACK_SEA, and EXPLORE SEA. Upgrading both the Cog and Heavy Galley to Carrack retained the original roles. Played with Galleons on a whim, expecting SETTLER_SEA, but each one spawned with ASSAULT_SEA.

I withhold intent to seek insights or draw conclusions from this information alone as, beyond this, I know that there would exist more that contributes to how roles are assigned. Otherwise I hope my teaspoon of a contribution finds some use.

EDIT - Quick Note: spotted a Spanish Caravel with SETTLER_SEA. It seems there's more to this indeed?
 
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Yes, the issue is that a unit that is being upgraded retains its unit AI. Upgrading existing ships to Caravels is a common (and imo encouraged) way to get them quickly.

I don't think the game really expects there to be an upgrade path with different preferred unit AIs. On my local copy I already implemented a very targeted fix that made sure that if the upgraded unit as EXPLORE_SEA as its default AI, it switches to that unit AI instead of keeping the previous one. Not sure if a more general fix is needed.
 
Yes, the issue is that a unit that is being upgraded retains its unit AI. Upgrading existing ships to Caravels is a common (and imo encouraged) way to get them quickly.

I don't think the game really expects there to be an upgrade path with different preferred unit AIs. On my local copy I already implemented a very targeted fix that made sure that if the upgraded unit as EXPLORE_SEA as its default AI, it switches to that unit AI instead of keeping the previous one. 👍
Darn it, that was easily settled. Still I say Prost to thee 🍻

Not sure if a more general fix is needed.
My gut has been rumbling "Probably Maybe". Over the past few hours I've been focused only on this topic to shore up existing thoughts, suspicions, and actual insights. I may now capitulate that a simple outcome of all these various ins-and-outs is a deficiency of exploring units. As an illustration, it is typical for a given Colonialist civ to be glutted with Galleons and Settlers but severely lacking map knowledge of their would-be targets. While Derpy Explorers certainly share the account for this obscurity, it is perhaps a far greater factor that the typical maximum active at a given point for a civ is a mere handful. This paltry set further dwindles as Frigate upgrades become available (OMG SUDDEN IDEA!!!: Don't let Caravels upgrade to Frigates anymore. Or, if that's too severe, perhaps jack the price up to gouge levels? Sumtin?) I'd also presume tinkering with Build priorities would be a preferred means to address the job to building an entire AI Program if then desired result could be reached thus, nay? As always treat this brief as a mere placeholder for a detailed report to follow with haste.
 
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Report on Exploration Experiment: I lent the AI civs a gentle nudging hand in Caravel production to see what the results of a simple increase in exploring ships would have on the Colonial dimension of the game. This consisted of no more than overriding current build selections in the City Data screen in order to assure the constructed Caravels would leave the shipyard with the EXPLORE_SEA role. I ceased intervention once each had reached FOUR and let the turns click by. Bad News: I didn't carefully keep track of saves. Good News: the outcome witnessed doesn't warrant that level of detail anyway. With respect to this running discussion, the outstanding issue was completely addressed and resolved, at least under prevailing conditions of this game. The madlads embarked on a cartographical spree and followed this W up with enthusiastic settlement. In a stunning First, Portugal established three settlements in the Moluccas entirely without TC help. Otherwise, and to much relief against fears of a runaway monster, the trend settled to a reasonable equilibrium following this initial outburst.

A key factor conspicuously absent from the run was a widespread Reformation war (IIRC none of the hostilities took place among the Colonialists), which has traditionally operated as the other primary obstruction, or at least complication, to settlement alongside the Lost Sailor phenomenon we set to addressing here. I'm still inclined to hold that the outcomes related to Map Vision obtained here would at least hold to a fractional degree, as many or most of the dedicated exploring ships would *probably* have had time to knock out most of the Atlantic mapping and possibly rode out the duration of hostilities on the far side. The matter of Settlement still remains, well, unsettled hehehehehe.

PLUS ULTRA!
 
There is progress on the sea exploration AI front: I added some explicit AI routines to 1) if at a coast, continue exploring along the coast and 2) if the map has not been circumnavigated yet and the ship is oceangoing, explore towards some tile west of your explored territory.

This has a westward bias baked in which works well historically, it should make Europeans gravitate towards America across the Atlantic and then continue exploring across the Pacific from there. Asian civs should be less inclined to explore across the Pacific, but it's still possible using the previous exploration routines, which are still in place.

This was very effective, you can now load a 1500 AD save and usually find not only Aztec and Incan conquerors already on the map, but also see that the civs in question have mapped the entire (eastern) American coastline. That was previously not the case and often prevented them from going far enough along into the Gulf of Mexico or to the Atlantic side of the continent. It is currently most frequently Portugal instead of Spain, but that is more a problem of the balance of these two civs. Who makes it to Caravels first now has a good chance to also get the conquerors.


This also exposes new issues. The AI now reaches the Americas before gunpowder. Firearms is a bit too far off in the tech tree but them having bombards would be nice. I think this is mostly a consequence of how strongly everyone is encouraged to get Cartography and Exploration, which causes a beeline that neglects military techs. Now that the ships themselves are more effective at exploration it is less necessary to push the exploration techs. But maybe it is also a good idea to make Caravels require Gunpowder?

The other issue is another unit AI problem. AI conquerors often capture their first city and then get stuck inside it. This often leads to the Inca surviving with merely one city under European control, or only Mexico city conquered but the surroundings staying under Native control, in both cases despite the stack being substantial enough to easily capture them. My current understanding is that this is a consequence of cities being so close to each other: if cities are only two tiles apart, the AI considers the enemy defensive stack to be a threat to its city and refuses to move out. Since both AIs make this judgment, things get stuck in a standoff and nothing happens. I am not quite sure what the cause of this is, but the AI seems to be unable to split off a few defenders and move out with the rest, or realise in general that offense is a form of defense.

This is actually a problem that seems to me not just to be related to conquerors but to occur frequently across the whole game. I hope that finding a fix or improved AI that avoids this problem might make AI expansion more nimble overall.
 
Shouldn't that lead to ships never leaving the coast? They start there after all.
No, what this means is just that the ship considers tiles in its immediate vicinity (iirc 3 tiles radius) that are unexplored and picks one to explore it. Eventually you run out of surrounding coast tiles to explore and this should be the case e.g. for a newly built ship.
 
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