Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
Tims, the fatcat overlord Donald, the Amazing Trump, laughs at your 35% predictions as he breaks the 40% mark:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-polling/
[RD] The Republican nomination
- Thread starter onejayhawk
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Tims, the fatcat overlord Donald, the Amazing Trump, laughs at your 35% predictions as he breaks the 40% mark:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/26/politics/donald-trump-ted-cruz-polling/
I used to look at these votes the same way but as I've seen elections pass and witnessed different candidates fail my perspectives changed. I don't think it's a fair representation.
It's more about voting for a platform rather than a candidate, and you want a candidate with the skills to advance the platform. Candidates who can't gather popular support (demonstrated by votes and poll results) haven't shown the ability to influence others and gain consensus in a republican democracy.
For example, I fully support Rand Paul, there is not another candidate who's positions more closely align with what I consider to be right. However, as much as I like his policies, he's a failure. He can't campaign, he can't convince others, in short he can't lead. It's a little bit of a hit to my ego honestly because we are so alike on matters of opinion that I sympathize with him.
So my vote is going to go to someone else ultimately, who shares some of my viewpoints (and not others) but also shows the ability to gain consensus and lead powerful people in a unified direction. In other words, I'm going to vote for a winner. Not necessarily the winner, but I think it's right to choose someone who can win.
Rubio is riding the botched, illegal, Planned Parenthood sting, boondoggle right down the drain... anointing the criminals who perpetrated it as heroes... I don't get his strategy... Is he trying to carve out a role as the new evangelical candidate, ala Huckabee & Santorum? Why
I think Tim is also talking about delegate count as opposed to polling results.
Timsup2nothin
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Rubio is riding the botched, illegal, Planned Parenthood sting, boondoggle right down the drain... anointing the criminals who perpetrated it as heroes... I don't get his strategy... Is he trying to carve out a role as the new evangelical candidate, ala Huckabee & Santorum? Why
I think Tim is also talking about delegate count as opposed to polling results.
Yes, Tim is talking about delegate counts.
As to Rubio, this is an all in move. He needs to draw some evangelical support from Cruz, who has been cultivating it all along, to put more distance between himself and the other potential third options. Even if it hurts him in the long run, he has no choice.
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
If he has a huge lead coming into the convention, they have to nominate him or it'll completely split the party and screw them even more than nominating him. The Donald looks like he's going to run the table in the primaries.
The thing is, if not for his asinine immigration policy and his stance on the environment, I might actually consider voting for this guy because
He actually wanted tax increases on the wealthy and single payer healthcare.
Which are critically important issues to me.
Timsup2nothin
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There isn't even any polling for most of the primaries, and you are predicting a "run the table"? C'mon man.
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
There isn't even any polling for most of the primaries, and you are predicting a "run the table"? C'mon man.
It looks like right now he'll sweep the 5 earliest states. Has there ever been a candidate to Sweep IA, NH, SC, and Nevada and has a +20 in national polls and not get a party nomination? I don't think so.
Timsup2nothin
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Has there ever been anyone so focused on being "+20 in the polls" while still getting far less than half of the vote because they are still in a double digit field? I don't think so.
You say "sweep five" and then list four. I'm guessing that's because those four are the only ones with polling data, and in fact they are the only ones where there can even BE polling data because beyond them there isn't any clarity about who will even be running. Even Nevada is edgy on that score, and SC might be.
Trump's campaign style is totally geared to being in a large field. Until we see how he adapts to a three man field it's hard to guess how things turn out. I'm willing to say that if he adapts really well he may do much better than I expect, but I see no reason to think that he is going to adapt well. It's also poorly suited for super Tuesday, and I don't see any reason to think he will make that adjustment well either.
You say "sweep five" and then list four. I'm guessing that's because those four are the only ones with polling data, and in fact they are the only ones where there can even BE polling data because beyond them there isn't any clarity about who will even be running. Even Nevada is edgy on that score, and SC might be.
Trump's campaign style is totally geared to being in a large field. Until we see how he adapts to a three man field it's hard to guess how things turn out. I'm willing to say that if he adapts really well he may do much better than I expect, but I see no reason to think that he is going to adapt well. It's also poorly suited for super Tuesday, and I don't see any reason to think he will make that adjustment well either.
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
Florida as well, but florida is winner-take-all super Tuesday and he's like +20 there as well. He's at 40% already. He'd still be ahead in a 3-man field.
LOLs at swami Natesilvestro... Sometimes I feel like he really does just read our CFC threads and copycat what we say.
I agree with these points. Tims brokered convention prediction is an intriguing possibility, but I am a little skeptical that they would blow up their party like that.
Timsup2nothin
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A brokered convention blows up the party no matter how it pans out. If Trump comes in with 40% of the delegates and they give him the nomination over someone with 30% of the delegates you still have more than half of the party who didn't vote for the nominee, and that nominee being an immense polarizer means they not only didn't vote for him but in many cases will be absolutely locked in opposition.
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
Its much worse if you don't nominate the leader though. I don't think it'll be 40 to 30 to 30 though, I think Trump will have a much larger lead and the only reason he won't have the nomination is because of the delegates that aren't pledged or "superdelegates".
Timsup2nothin
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Cruz will be a distant third, but the top two will be close enough that "being in the lead" won't make much difference. If the decision is clearly made by super delegates there will be a lot of problems, which is why the question of who can buy Cruz is really the issue.
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
Your assuming that all the voters for the establishment candidates will band together. In that case, you might get someone like 40 to 28 or so with trump in the lead, but I don't think that will happen. Some of those voters will defect to trump. He's gained voters every time someone drops out. I predict that trump will be at least 2:1 on the next guy.
Oerdin
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Rubio is riding the botched, illegal, Planned Parenthood sting, boondoggle right down the drain... anointing the criminals who perpetrated it as heroes... I don't get his strategy... Is he trying to carve out a role as the new evangelical candidate, ala Huckabee & Santorum? Why
I think Tim is also talking about delegate count as opposed to polling results.
My guess is Rubio is trying to pander to evangelicals so when Santorum and the others drop out he can be their next candidate of choice.
Timsup2nothin
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Specify. Who has dropped out that dumped voters to Trump? I submit that they were running in the same groove. Trump has taken that groove for himself, but when candidates from a different groove drop out their voters will go to someone else running in that groove, not jump to Trump.
Are evangelicals going to see their guys drop and say "oh well, Trump the irreligious"? Why?
Are hard core conservatives going to see their guys drop and say "oh well, Trump the New York Liberal"? Why?
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
The main one is Carson, he's gotten most of Carson's former followers and he keeps steadily rising in the polls, topping 40% now. I just don't see a low ceiling for him in the GOP.
Timsup2nothin
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Like I said, the same groove. Carson's supporters are all about the "outsider" and obviously not concerned about lack of qualifications. How does that project into support jumping from Rubio, Kasich, Bush, or Christie to Trump? Those four are going to narrow into one fairly soon, and that one is the one Trump will be running against in all but the first handful of primaries.
