The state of Russian "democracy"

[Winner]

It's almost like they are culturally or ethnically unable to handle democracy, isnt it?

Nah, if the Koreans or Japanese managed to create their own brand of democracy, there is no reason why the Russians shouldn't be able to do that too. God knows they have many skilled and responsible people, and they're much closer to the West culturally than the Asian nations.

Unfortunately, the tradition of a strong authoritarian leader is obviously deeply ingrained in the Russian psyche.

 

[aronnax]

Pff.. All wraped in Red, I prefer the fair-bosom, bare-breasted Marianne!



And with good reason.

 

[Lone Wolf]

I prefer the fair-bosom, bare-breasted Marianne!

See, that clearly demonstrates the difference between moral Russia and the decadent West. Even the Western "patriotic" symbols are, in the end, are nothing but pornographical stuff. We don't need that "democracy of bare breasts" in Russia, thank you very much.

 

[aronnax]

See, that clearly demonstrates the difference between moral Russia and the decadent West. Even the Western "patriotic" symbols are, in the end, are nothing but pornographical stuff. We don't need that "democracy of bare breasts" in Russia, thank you very much.

Not according to Google Fight!

 

[Lone Wolf]

All that stuff about "Russian sin" on Google, is, obviously, Western propaganda.

 

[aronnax]

Russian are also more evil too.


But seriously, Democracy is itself a clause in the Human Universal Declaration of Rights and you would rather just throw it away due to strong nationalism and a bit of bad luck with democracy?
Democracy had failed Japan which after they adopted Fascism which ended in the Total defeat of their nation. But they tried again and now have the worlds second largest economy! And... And... I make no sense and sound like im trying to sell you something.

 

[Lone Wolf]

Western "democracy" is a sham, everyone knows that secret Masonic orders really rule the Western word, and the so-called "elected officials" are merely their puppets.

I don't really think so. But that was fun to type.

 

[Snorrius]

Not exactly what I asked and still pretty obscure, but all right, divination isn't maths.
Latvia is indeed already waist deep in shait, so I won't pick on what you mean by "crumble",

In short - economy crash: rapid devaluation of lat and impoverishment of people, mass migration of workforce to Europe and Russia, failed social and healthcare systems.

IMF loans, though, should help them to endure little more but it just small delay.

but would you care to specify what do you mean by "keeping currency board"? Do you mean totally giving up currency board and letting EEK on free float? Or do you mean EEK will be strongly devalued in 2010 the latest?

Personally I think that totally giving up currency board and allowing EEK to free fall is most probable outcome. Estonia has about 6 billions in FX reserves, but external debt (public and corporate) is four times bigger. As soon as Bank of Estonia will not be able to provide FX coverage for outflowing capitals, they will have to discard currency board and allow kroon to free float (fall). Trade deficit do not help either.

Considering that Russia is already weekly devaluating ruble bit by bit, this would not say much, but still I accept the bet. Neither scenario is going to happen. EEK will keep its fixed exchange rate at 15.6466 per €1 at least until 2011, or until Estonia switches to euro, whichever happens sooner. What do you want to bet on?

To keep currency stable against other currencies one need to have enough FX reserves which Estonia do not have. Though, adopting of euro unofficially is possible - Montenegro did it.

 

[Godwynn]

Pff.. All wraped in Red, I prefer the fair-bosom, bare-breasted Marianne!

I prefer Germania and Italia... together.



Marianne, Mother Russia, and Britannia just don't seem to like that sort of action...

 

[Yeekim]

Personally I think that totally giving up currency board and allowing EEK to free fall is most probable outcome. Estonia has about 6 billions in FX reserves, but external debt (public and corporate) is four times bigger. As soon as Bank of Estonia will not be able to provide FX coverage for outflowing capitals, they will have to discard currency board and allow kroon to free float (fall). Trade deficit do not help either.

Thanks for a healthy laugh. Sorry, mate, but you have absolutely NO idea what you are talking about. Given that you take your data from Russian sources which are little more than wishful thinking on the matter (or possibly Western sources, which can hardly tell Baltics from Balcans, this is not really surprising).

Firstly: Estonian kroon (cash in circulation, currency in current accounts and in accounts of a fixed date) is issued fully secured by the gold and convertible foreign exchange reserve of Bank of Estonia. Bank of Estonia has the right to change the amount of EEK in circulation only according to a change of its gold and foreign exchange reserve. For dummies: this means that for every 15.6466 EEK out there, Bank of Estonia has exactly €1 in its foreign exchange reserve(plus small additional buffer ofc). So the only possibility for there not being enough FX coverage would be if this security reserve somehow disappeared. Well, we did not keep it in Lehman Brothers. Actually, latest news were its value has grown about 1 billion USD during the last year.

Secondly: Estonian Bank has no right to devalue Estonian kroon. This requires a law passed by parliament. Now, theoretically, parliament could of course pass this law in hopes of bringing the economy out of crisis (it should be a hell of a lot deeper crisis than it currently is, however). But this would not work, since most of the loans taken by both companies and private citizens are in euros, not in kroons. That would actually make things worse for everybody, so this is just not going to happen. Besides it being a major hit for country's reliability rating for investors and extremely masochistic political suicide for no gain.

So, again, you and the analysts you may have been reading do not know the first things they speak about.

EDIT 2: Foreign exchange reserves backing the kroon (USD/USD m*)
http://www.eestipank.info/dynamic/i...K,615:USD,616:DEM,617:EUR&lang=en&submit=SHOW
Law of the Republic of Estonia on the security for Estonian Kroon
http://www.eestipank.info/pub/en/dokumendid/dokumendid/oigusaktid/seadused/_5.html

 

[plarq]

In short - economy crash: rapid devaluation of lat and impoverishment of people, mass migration of workforce to Europe and Russia, failed social and healthcare systems.

IMF loans, though, should help them to endure little more but it just small delay.


Personally I think that totally giving up currency board and allowing EEK to free fall is most probable outcome. Estonia has about 6 billions in FX reserves, but external debt (public and corporate) is four times bigger. As soon as Bank of Estonia will not be able to provide FX coverage for outflowing capitals, they will have to discard currency board and allow kroon to free float (fall). Trade deficit do not help either.


To keep currency stable against other currencies one need to have enough FX reserves which Estonia do not have. Though, adopting of euro unofficially is possible - Montenegro did it.

The real question is, what did you bet on?

 

[Bllasae]

The Russian government are just going to go into another communist government because apparently "capitalism is dead" in Russia.

 

[plarq]

The Russian government are just going to go into another communist government because apparently "capitalism is dead" in Russia.

Communist Party is the opposition party in Russia. And there's nothing Russian authority glorifies in USSR except Russian nationalism.

 

[red_elk]

So the Russian People are absolutely fine with forgoing the right to be represented, noticed and heard as long as there is bread on their table and a roof above their heads?

No, they are fine with living under the bridge with no food, as long as they are "represented".

 

[plarq]

No, they are fine with living under the bridge with no food, as long as they are "represented".

Like they're well off now...

 

[Winner]

No, they are fine with living under the bridge with no food, as long as they are "represented".

This must be the greatest success of Putin's propaganda machine: he actually managed to make the ordinary Russians believe that democracy = chaos and poverty, while authoritarianism = rising living standard.

Well, sorry to tell you that since it will surely shatter your world, but it's not like that.

 

[plarq]

This must be the greatest success of Putin's propaganda machine: he actually managed to make the ordinary Russians believe that democracy = chaos and poverty, while authoritarianism = rising living standard.

Well, sorry to tell you that since it will surely shatter your world, but it's not like that.

The real thing is, Yeltsin's regime cannot be correctly labeled as democracy, after all, his chosen successor is Putin. Yet Putin and Co. distorted that fact and make himself looks like a miracle who saved Russia from Yeltsin's disaster.

 

[Winner]

The real thing is, Yeltsin's regime cannot be correctly labeled as democracy, after all, his chosen successor is Putin. Yet Putin and Co. distorted that fact and make himself looks like a miracle who saved Russia from Yeltsin's disaster.

Yeltsin hardly knew what he was doing the last few years of his rule. But you're right - Putin's clique managed to equate Yeltsin years with democracy and thus discredited it in the eyes of most of Russians.

As I said, the greatest propaganda success in post-Soviet Russia.

 

[holy king]

isnt he also linking it to unregulated capitalism? (which would in fact be true...)

 

[red_elk]

Like they're well off now...

This guy has written stupid thing (about bread and freedom).
Has he ever been in the situation when he has nothing to eat or to feed family?
May be he knows what does it mean to lose home?
Or to be afraid to go out in the evening, because he can be killed?

Ask people who fled from Chechnya, what they think about Yeltsin's "democracy".

This must be the greatest success of Putin's propaganda machine: he actually managed to make the ordinary Russians believe that democracy = chaos and poverty, while authoritarianism = rising living standard.

Well, sorry to tell you that since it will surely shatter your world, but it's not like that.

All Russians are idiots, they don't understand how to make their life better. If they overthrow evil dictator Putin and elect democratic president, they will quickly become rich and prosperous. But agents of bloody KGB brainwashed all Russian people, this is the only reason why Putin is still so popular there.
We, guys from Europe, understand everything what is happening in Russia. It doesn't matter that we have never been there, the main thing is we are not brainwashed and can teach stupid Russians how to live in their country.