Use of Chemical Weapons in Syria

[bhsup]

I think we need to invade just to protect the 2nd amendment rights of that lady sniper. That's just me, though...

 

[ReindeerThistle]

@Hobbs: I agree, Syria has much more to LOSE via US attack than Russian sanctions, which, as you point out, they would not do if for only onecreadin: losing its onky Mediterranian port. They are opportunists, not ideologues.

I also agree that this was quite a credible threat of force. The POTUSA can do this: Bush 41; Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama have proven this.

One, Assad is a smart guy.
Two, as single-focused US foreign policy is on ME meddling, Obama us a smart guy, too.

But I think this only delays things.

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[hobbsyoyo]

Yeah, I'm not convinced Assad is actually going to go along with this, I have a suspicion that he's stalling for time to protect his assets. At which point we're back to the sub-optimal option of bombing.

I don't think Obama quite had this all in mind (Assad handing over his weapons and avoiding bombing), simply because Assad has been so recalcitrant over everything in the past. I do think Putin talked some since into Assad though. It was looking terrible for him because he'd get attacked by the US, then to show how strong and potent he is, he would retaliate by...bombing Israel, which would then hammer him worse.

Instead, he seems to have come to his senses and now we can get chemical weapons out of his hands (and hopefully off the battlefield for good) without having to use force. So diplomacy, which everyone agrees is best, but we got it through the threat of force, which everyone discounted completely.

Speak softly and carry a really big tomahawk.

 

[BSmith1068]

Russia will do no such thing and has not eveb threatened to in the event Assad doesnt hand over his weapons. The only thing stopping him from reneging on the deal is the spectre of attacks he can't stop.

Yeah yeah yeah King Obam, got you. Of course even though the evidence supports the fact that we now have potential diplomatic solution because of the threat of force, it doesn't count because reasons. Since america and obama suck so bad and the strike was such a stupid idea, we can't go and give it any credit for opening up a potential non-violent solution because reasons and tyrantface Barack Hussein Obama.

Thats how stupid this conversation has gotten, facts don't matter, reason and logic are useless for your greater goal. All that matters is FORUM RAGE - we hate drone stikes, we hate NSA, we hate Dictator Extradinaire Dear Leader Obama's plan to bomb Assad and help Al Qaeda! HE DOES NOTHING
GOOD

Eh, he doesn't actually need the vote and all the talk on CSpan has been about how they think Obama would do the strike anyways. But either way, that's beside the point I was making. The threat of force opened this possibility - up until Sunday Assad was denying even having chemical weapons. He has been warned off using them in the past and that didn't work. He has been sanctioned to hell and back and that didn't work. But then the US Navy starts identifying targets and positioning for ab attack he can't stop or respond to and suddenly he's willing to admit they exist AND hand them over. But then again I must be totally crazy to think that cuz forum consensus says Obama loves Al Qaeda.

Oh, and if Assad backs out of this deal - that would make Congress far more likely to back an attack. In fact the leaders of the house and senate are already working language to that affect into the force authorization bill and I think that will likely pass even if a straight force authorization won't.

If this were the org I would have thanked this post... But alas I am relegated to making my own post, so....

Spot On.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Thanks. I've been trying to avoid these threads because my trolltillery needs a break. It's just galling some of the stuff I've read here...and when I call out people on the insane logic they are using, they turn around and spam out more nonsense. But I've made my points now and I'll just let it continue unabated from here on out.

 

[red_elk]

So diplomacy, which everyone agrees is best, but we got it through the threat of force, which everyone discounted completely.

Except US (as well as Saudis and Turkey) objective there has always been deposing Assad and diplomatic solution would help them only in saving face after "thin red line" president comments. Now everything depends on who exactly will represent the "international community".

 

[ReindeerThistle]

Your trolltillery made a friend out of an old Red. Can't be all bad.


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[Formaldehyde]

It turns out the US isn't the only one which has spies in the area:

Report Claims Syrian Troops Used Chemical Weapons Without Assad’s Approval

German surveillance suggests chemical attack unauthorized, Assad also tells PBS's Charlie Rose that he did not gas his own people, as White House continues to press claim

Government forces in Syria may have launched the chemical weapons attack that reportedly killed more than a thousand civilians last month before receiving a go-ahead from President Bashar Assad.

According to an article published on Sunday in the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag, a German spy ship intercepted repeated communications from forces loyal to Assad asking for permission to use chemical weapons; however, their requests were consistently denied.

This latest report comes as the Oval Office unleashed an all-out public relations offensive over the weekend in order to convince a deeply skeptical Congress to approve a resolution that would allow for the use of military strikes to both punish and degrade the capabilities of Assad’s forces after they allegedly deployed chemical weapons against civilians in the suburbs of Damascus on Aug. 21.

On Sunday, President Obama’s Chief of Staff Denis McDonough conceded that the White House did not have “irrefutable, beyond-a-reasonable-doubt evidence” connecting Assad to the use of chemical weapons. He appeared to be contradicted on Monday by Secretary of State John Kerry, who insisted that the evidence against Assad was compelling according to an AP report.

 

[Gucumatz]

Ja und? Its the bild first of all - but that said, if true, if it was an unauthorized strike by a rogue military leader, why hasn't Assad publicly reprimanded him if he truly understood the consequences of potential US involvement?

Either way - so what do you all think the odds are that this Russian solution pans out? I saw a poll on CBS the other day that about 60% of Americans don't trust this Russian proposal - but as we all know people can be fickle about things they don't trust (Potential wars and Russians ie.)

 

[Formaldehyde]

It is also Der Spiegel which is making similar comments.

German Spy Ship "Oker" Heard Some Things ...

I am far more concerned that this wasn't mentioned by Obama. Why that very same German spy ship is apparently helping the rebels:

German spy ship aiding Syrian rebels: report

A German newspaper has reported that a spy ship from the German intelligence agency is helping Syrian rebels.

According to a report on Sunday in the paper Bild am Sonntag, the ship is equipped to detect troop movements as far as 600 kilometers (372.8 miles) inland.

The paper says the information thus obtained is being passed by the German foreign intelligence agency BND to United States and British intelligence services. These in their turn are handing it on to Syrian rebels, the report says.

The "Bild am Sonntag" also says that BND agents stationed at the Turkish NATO base in Adana are listening in to telephone and radio conversations within Syria. In addition, the paper says, agents are maintaining informal contact with sources directly linked with the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad.

Proud of contribution'

The report quotes a US intelligence agent as saying: "No Western intelligence service has as good sources in Syria as the BND does."

A member of the BND told the newspaper that the intelligence service was "proud of the important contribution [it] is making to the overthrow of the Assad regime." The official was not named in the report.

A British newspaper has also revealed that British intelligence, too, is providing Syrian rebels with information on government troop movements to help them plan attacks.
The Sunday Times weekly cited an opposition official as saying that British authorities "know about and approve 100 percent" the fact that intelligence from their Cyprus military bases is being passed on to rebel troops of the Free Syrian Army (FSA).

 

[capslock]

Yeah yeah yeah King Obam, got you. Of course even though the evidence supports the fact that we now have potential diplomatic solution because of the threat of force, it doesn't count because reasons. Since america and obama suck so bad and the strike was such a stupid idea, we can't go and give it any credit for opening up a potential non-violent solution because reasons and tyrantface Barack Hussein Obama.

Thats how stupid this conversation has gotten, facts don't matter, reason and logic are useless for your greater goal. All that matters is FORUM RAGE - we hate drone stikes, we hate NSA, we hate Dictator Extradinaire Dear Leader Obama's plan to bomb Assad and help Al Qaeda! HE DOES NOTHING
GOOD

This is about as coherent as the Obama admins stance on Syria. Drone strikes, NSA, what? You are the one ranting here.


The world was scared when we WTFPWND Saddam. No one is scared about threats of unbelievably small attacks that will force Assad to eat his cheerios with a fork. They just laugh. Drawing red lines, making threats, ordering strikes, then reneging. Not the actions of a confident (or competent) world leader.

Russia picked up our fumble as took in for 6. And it wasn't a pretty fumble. It was like Mark Sanchez's butt fumble. Humiliating. The "I meant to do that" excuse makes it even worse. Especially since the diplomatic solution is terrible and completely unenforceable. We lost this one bad, only the most delusional fanboys can rationalize these events into a positive.

 

[JollyRoger]

After Iraq, the only thing the world fears from the U.S. is an incompetent ground invasion and drawn out occupation of the wrong country.

 

[Antilogic]

Yeah yeah yeah King Obam, got you. Of course even though the evidence supports the fact that we now have potential diplomatic solution because of the threat of force, it doesn't count because reasons. Since america and obama suck so bad and the strike was such a stupid idea, we can't go and give it any credit for opening up a potential non-violent solution because reasons and tyrantface Barack Hussein Obama.

Thats how stupid this conversation has gotten, facts don't matter, reason and logic are useless for your greater goal. All that matters is FORUM RAGE - we hate drone stikes, we hate NSA, we hate Dictator Extradinaire Dear Leader Obama's plan to bomb Assad and help Al Qaeda! HE DOES NOTHING
GOOD

Eh, he doesn't actually need the vote and all the talk on CSpan has been about how they think Obama would do the strike anyways. But either way, that's beside the point I was making. The threat of force opened this possibility - up until Sunday Assad was denying even having chemical weapons. He has been warned off using them in the past and that didn't work. He has been sanctioned to hell and back and that didn't work. But then the US Navy starts identifying targets and positioning for ab attack he can't stop or respond to and suddenly he's willing to admit they exist AND hand them over. But then again I must be totally crazy to think that cuz forum consensus says Obama loves Al Qaeda.

Oh, and if Assad backs out of this deal - that would make Congress far more likely to back an attack. In fact the leaders of the house and senate are already working language to that affect into the force authorization bill and I think that will likely pass even if a straight force authorization won't.

I'm not sure the evidence unequivocally supports your interpretation of the chain of events--as you point out in a subsequent post, it could be a ploy for time on the other side of the negotiating table. and it kind of looks like we stumbled into it. And I have yet to see an expert talk on any network about a credible plan for securing the chemical weapons in the middle of a war zone.

If he asks Congress for a vote, Congress says no, and then he strikes anyway, Obama will be guaranteeing a backlash and probably lame duckitude for the rest of his administration.

It's also a case of the enemy of my enemy not being my friend, which makes any action taken even more difficult.

 

[r16]

the entry of Germans into the picture is based solely on the quite general feeling among the Irresuction that the West is kinda selling them for the duration .

 

[Formaldehyde]

After Iraq, the only thing the world fears from the U.S. is an incompetent ground invasion and drawn out occupation of the wrong country.

Or even more football metaphors.

 

[ReindeerThistle]

After Iraq, the only thing the world fears from the U.S. is an incompetent ground invasion and drawn out occupation of the wrong country.

Or even more football metaphors.

As I wrote in the Chamber thread, building failed states seems to be a US specialty.
I keep waiting to hear the next round.


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[Borachio]

I must say it's all taken a rather interesting turn. Russia, and Putin, rather seem to have taken the initiative, somehow. Though I doubt this has been planned out.

It remains to be seen how far Putin can take this. But it would certainly lend him some kudos if he succeeds in getting Assad to surrender his stockpile of chemical weapons (and indeed how is that to be implemented?) and sign up to the Convention.

And, indeed, the threat of US military intervention may well be a factor. Though I suggest that the US would be rather relieved not to have to launch missile attacks - with the inevitable civilian casualties and bad publicity that follows. I doubt very much that the US would be willing to do anything more than token attacks.

Still, I'd favour diplomatic solutions every time. If you can get them, of course.

 

[Antilogic]

Putin really seems to be putting himself out front on this issue. If he plays his cards right, his ally Assad stays in power no matter what and it's a Russian diplomatic victory. However, if he stays out front on the issue and Assad manages to keep some of his chemical weapons, this might be seen as a failure of Russian diplomacy in the international community (or a joint American-Russian failure).

 

[Borachio]

But in any case he ups Russia's profile on the international stage.

 

[Antilogic]

I have no argument there.