The problem is that if you join up against Austria, you're sacrificing the long-term game on the altar of mid-term expansion. Killing Austria requires armies, and armies don't get Turkey past the stalemate lines, only fleets do. But allying with Austria against Russia is foolhardy as well, since Russia is a dead end for your fleets - but you must build fleets to make any progress across the Black Sea. The best direction for Turkish expansion is clearly westward, across the Mediterranean, but Turkey has problems maintaining an alliance with Austria even in that scenario; the only way I've been able to successfully keep the peace there is by having both Austria and Turkey maintain a large number of effectively useless armies as a deterrent. That's how I eventually won: pushing west, while suboptimally wasting many armies juggling Austria and Russia - with the aid of the English, who invaded Scandinavia and northern Russia, virtually crippling the Russians - and even then, when Austria bit the dust and I tried to surge to the eighteenth supply center, I only made it because of an epic choke by the defending coalition.
Things I disagree with:
- "allying with Austria against Russia is foolhardy": you don't ally with Austria against Russia, you ally with Austria against Turkey. Russia has a pretty hard time in the Black Sea area; they can't allow you to take the Black Sea, and they can't afford to bounce you indefinitely there (while you can). With a Southern Hedgehog (F Tri->Ven included), Russia can't get any builds in the south, and an RI can't make any progress, meaning Russia will eventually lose interest. Furthermore, Russia is vulnerable to both Germany and England in the north if they go all-out in the south, meaning you have a whopping 2 chances to butter up someone to distract Russia. Only in worst-case scenarios would you have to worry about Russia.
- "Killing Austria requires armies": stalemating Austria and locking them out of southern Italy and the Med requires no more than your 2 initial armies (Gre + Bul) and some fleets. The burden of killing Austria per se can be shifted on the frustrated Russia that's been locked out of the south (I personally stab a season after I secure the Ionian, by supporting Russia into Rumania and if I'm lucky getting Serbia in the same swoop). If Austria accidentally managed to kill Russia (can't see that happening against a competent Ruskie), you're in the perfect position to cry to the other players about how Austria is about to win the game and needs a 4-man alliance to take down. If that doesn't work, or if Russia decides to support Austria's stab on you rather than the other way around, well yes in that case you're right, Turkey is screwed. Fortunately Austria will take a while to navigate fleets over to Anatolia, so Turkey can get its "I told you so"s in as Austria methodically takes over the world.
But yes, teaming up on Austria usually leads to very bad things; if Austria is allowed to actually die, you're crushed between two large neighbors with little prospect of expansion on either side.
And if you decide to abuse Stockholm Syndrome and prop up a rump Austrian state, you're not much better off. I once did that in a high-ranked game online, and even though my stab worked beautifully and I got up to both Naples and Sevastopol, I overestimated Stockholm Syndrome and the tiny 4-SC Austria stabbed the giant 9-SC Turkey and went on to solo win the game. Bad Austrian ports ensured my survival though

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Mhm. The centerpiece of the Octopus has few drawbacks, if any. It means that the English don't have any guaranteed builds in W01 unless they go all-out and deploy fleets to the Norwegian and North Seas - and by doing that, they've successfully mired themselves in the Scandinavian dead end, with no hope of cracking the stalemate line or of defending effectively against France, England's real enemy.
What I really love about the Octopus is that it turns Russia from the West's b**ch into a valuable resource for any of the 3 Westerns. With two units in Scandinavia that early, you'll have England, Germany, and France all contacting you on the first turn to beg for an alliance, and I like that kind of attention.
Edit: So much censoring on CFC D: