While We Wait: Writer's Block & Other Lame Excuses

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Apologies. As debt increases, those willing to lend money to an increasingly-indebted organization decreases. This is particularly the case as the organization makes no action to repay the debt, and simply pays ever-larger interest - both in hard numbers and in percentages.

I do not have actual numbers and stuff.
 
Apologies. As debt increases, those willing to lend money to an increasingly-indebted organization decreases. This is particularly the case as the organization makes no action to repay the debt, and simply pays ever-larger interest - both in hard numbers and in percentages.

I do not have actual numbers and stuff.

See my post (and/or wikipedia) for said actual numbers.
 
Right now, the US certainly can continue increasing its debt burden as long as the market sees no problem with it, (or rather sees no economic alternative to US of A as perpetual global seller's market) so the main objections to increasing our national debt are moral in nature.

Now we're getting somewhere. Can you elucidate?
 
Japan's level of debt is nominally quite high, over 200% of GDP, but there's no threat of a Japanese default in the near-term since this level is roughly stable.
Hahaha what no. Japan's debt is a product of the last 20 years, and could hit 700% by 2050 if polices aren't adjusted. I don't know what kind of "near-term" you're using but it must be "1 year" to "5 years." The reason this doesn't matter isn't because it's stable, it's because Japan is huge on exports and has a unique economic situation. Or see here.

That said, for the benefit of others, America is not anomalous:

gross_government_debt_percent_gdp_1990-2009.png


And America is not in the same situation as Greece and won't be. As Crezth said:

so the main objections to increasing our national debt are moral in nature.
This is where the real argument lies. Debt makes the world run. Alexander Hamilton liked it for a reason.
 
I haveMinecraft for the iPad (PC when I decide to stop being cheap), and I have EUIII up to In Nomine (I will get up to DW when I decide to get Minecraft for the PC :p).
 
FIFA? Get PES. :p
 
My Grandmother sent me this today. It's a letter she found, which was sent by her father and mother to his sister. She translated it and transcribed it from Hungarian, and I thought it might interest some of you. Anyway, here, it is:

Zurich, 1949 III

[Father’s handwriting:]

My Dear Mici and Bandi,

You have no doubt received my telegram in which I told you that we have arrived. Thank God, we successfully left “our liberators” behind on the 25th, these “liberators”, who are no better than the Nazi hordes. We had one more very anxious moment at the very last minute, just before the British airport, because the Russians stopped the bus, but fortunately ID’s were not checked. The flight was uneventful; only Bábi disgraced me... [I threw up as we were coming in to land].

I am going to Bern tomorrow to see the Canadians, and hope that there will be no problem with getting visas. If everything goes smoothly, we board the ship in Le Havre on April 23rd, straight to Quebec.

We got two-week residency permits for Switzerland and our main headquarters will be here in Zurich at the Touring Hotel.

I sent three suitcases out here in December so that both Laci’s family and we have basic underwear, bed-linen, coats, etc. We don’t care at all about what was left back home; the main thing is that we have gotten this far. The fear and trembling with which we lived is almost unimaginable. I believe that you know that I was put under police surveillance. I had to report three times a week, I couldn’t use the phone, I couldn’t leave the house between 7 p.m. and 7 a.m., etc., etc. It is also quite certain that I would have been taken away soon to a concentration camp. I was constantly trying all kinds of ways to get a passport but nothing worked. The reason eventually became clear, namely that the political police wanted to extort money from me. They demanded 1,100,000 forints (even at black-market rates, that is $25,000), for the exit permit. First,

[Mummy’s handwriting — apparently written some days/weeks later:]


two women turned up with the letter from S. Szabolcs and a plan using a rail-car. Gyuri got very excited right away and said that he would just as soon leave right away. I said yes after thinking for a day. Laci and family hesitated for a week and decided not to. From then until the end of January, these touts turned up every 10 days, on the average, and sometimes they gave a different date, sometimes we said 6, 12 or 13 people. Szabolcs put an end to this splendid parlour-game when two beefy young men — whom I did not dare to let in, taking them to be police[...] and showing the fear natural to former capitalists — turned up at noon on Sunday, January 31 [error — Sunday was the 30th], with his [signature/code] and photo, saying that the departure was at 5 p.m. Laci happened to be there and after a brief mental struggle, he also agreed to the plan. We left in three taxis, from three different parts of town and were supposed to transfer to the truck outside town. After a wait of 1½ hours, the truck arrived, with of course Russian papers and escorts and when they found out that it involved eight children, they wanted nothing to do with helping with this escape. After a brief debate, they drove off and there we were, at 8:30 p.m., 25 km from Budapest and with at least partly burned bridges behind us because no matter how careful one is, organizing such a departure with this many children cannot be done inconspicuously, especially if there is also some simple baggage, such as shopping bags, briefcase ... Back to the cold house, Bábi is crying, Dedette gossiping to the caretaker in the building that we went far away. I didn’t know whose mouth or whose ear to bandage, should I serve food or turn on the heating. Meanwhile, Gyuri is running around the house, saying that along the way he had lost the couple of diamonds that he wanted to bring along and which he most definitely had in the pocket of his winter coat and which, after he had even searched for up and down the street, he found in the inside pocket of his jacket. This was at our house.

At Laci’s: Laci decided that he didn’t like this, that his inclination was to do something else, not escape and then, to the astonishment of the whole family, it was Mimi who was again willing to embark on the escape, stating that there was no other way, and that this was the last chance because if we escaped and they stayed behind, there would be no other opportunity for them and there might even be unpleasantness.


Another week of phone calls and anxiety went by when we finally left on Saturday, February 7 [error - Saturday was actually the 6th], again in three taxis, for a small village along the border where the above-mentioned truck was supposed to come for us at 7 p.m. We arrived there at the exact time, but the partner did not come. We listened for the noise of the car from the small room of the farmhouse until midnight, when we came to the reluctant conclusion that [...] something must have come up or they were caught — the more frightening thought — so we should lie down on the beds of uncertain cleanliness or on the ground, since the floor was earth. Our hosts sometimes comforted us by saying that the fellow was a very correct, reputable smuggler, that he can be counted on, that he will definitely come for us; sometimes they terrified us by saying that some people waited for two weeks. This went on for two days. Our poor children were not allowed to step outside the door or speak out loud so that no one would notice and tattle to the border guards. By Monday morning we were very desperate. There was no way back to Pest and even the men could not escape on foot because no one would be willing to serve as guides, which had been a flourishing cottage industry along the border until the beginning of December. — Finally, a telegram arrived around noon, that they were coming at night. [The telegram said something to the effect that “We are coming for the pigs”].

Once it turned dark, we listened with renewed anxiety for the noise of the car until it finally arrived around 10 o’clock. We dressed the children and ourselves hastily, the Russians hurrying us along, ‘davaj, davaj’. The scene was very evocative: the moon shining brightly, the dogs barking, the Russians, with their light machine-guns, urging us to hurry and to be quiet. Only one remarked when he saw the many children, that this was not a family, it was a ‘skola’, a school. In fact, our escort and driver was a very decent Hungarian tough; there was no way that he could get Russians if he told them that it involved eight children because they all became terrified. He eventually convinced them by saying that there were two families, with perhaps a child or two. — They pitched our children and small parcels up, pulled the canvas up, threw boards and tires, etc. over it all, so that it would not seem possible that there were living people underneath. This took less than two minutes and then we were driven like mad over hedge and ditch, on side-roads and, knocking down the barrier at the Hungarian border, we arrived at the Russian check-point, where we waited [for] 3 [hours]. Our children made not a sound, not even when a half hour later our escort pulled everything off our heads and told us that we could go ahead and whistle without a care since we were in Austria. We arrived in a small Austrian city at 11:45 and spent the night there. — There was only a single injury: the canvas rubbed the skin off Laci’s nose.


Looking back on it seven weeks later, we can say that it all went off very smoothly. God was with us. One dangerous part was from Budapest to the border on the highway toward Györ. We were ready to be stopped along there to have our papers checked and we did indeed meet a police car but perhaps they let us go on because of the bad weather — there was a horribly cold wind-storm — and they did not pull over to check our papers. After that, the Russian highway police could also check cars with Russian plates. Our escort told us later that he was a bit nervous too, not for himself, because he had strong knuckles, and the Russians also had the “davaj-guitar”, the machine-guns hanging from their necks, but for us and the children because it would not have been pleasant to have shots fired. Well, no... Our children behaved most irreproachably but [...] medication [was useless]. On Saturday, when it seemed that we would reach the border around 8 o’clock, around 6 o’clock I started giving them chloral-hydrate in the car so that they would fall asleep by then, at least the two little ones. The effect was the complete opposite, they became cheerful, lively and unmanageable as never before + they fell down three times a minute.

This is how our escape happened. Given my matchless cowardice, it really counts as heroism. We carried it off, no fainting-spell, no nervous breakdown, and it was only once [or twice] that I whispered into Gyuri’s ear asking if he really needed a tannery in Hungary in 1948, and I didn’t [beat him up] even once. So it was with understandable anger that I heard a few days later in Vienna that the rumour that was spread about us officially was that we had paid the 1,[0]00,000 forints and left with passports, thereby casting a shadow over the brilliance of our heroic deed and covering up the disgrace of the national security authorities for the fact that 13 of us escaped a police state at the same time.

We did not say goodbye to our parents or brothers and sisters. It seemed so unlikely beforehand that it would succeed and the departure was so nerve-racking that I couldn’t really say goodbye. The thought was always in the back of my mind that we would arrive back the next day under police escort and also that my parents were so old and so sickly that the goodbyes themselves would not be good for them. And it was also better that they be completely innocent in case there was an interrogation. That is why we left everything in the house and did not take anything to the relatives so that if the police came, they would find it all together, pictures, carpets, clothes or [...] so that the relatives would not be harassed. — The child of a real people’s democracy is very cautious and has many fears, which we still have not discarded, as you can see, since I still haven’t put people’s or place names down on paper.

I hope that you can form a small picture of our escape and that the writer and the reader can rest.

Many kisses,

Stefi.
 
Hah. Silly Americans with your basketball NESes.

Someday I shall start a cricketNES. It will go for six years and in that time it will have three updates. Mostly one person will just run back and forth while everybody else on their team watches. That'll be 90% of everybody's turns.

I read this and at first thought about an NES about crickets. Where all of your orders would be, "Chirp three times, then hop, then chirp five times and annoy the hell out of anyone trying to sleep."

EDIT: And I too have Minecraft. For both PC and X360.
 
Daftpanzer said:
Thankyou Masada for your reply, I actually do hope you are right about all this ^^. I'm not an economics student, and I'm sure there is a lot of scaremongering going on. On the other hand, I'm aware that not a lot of people saw the 2008 crisis coming and when they did, they were ridiculed.

Additional thoughts:

  • US debt isn't unsustainable, nor is it an economic problem, instead it's a political problem: one which a functioning legislature would have long ago resolved. The blame for this one is almost wholly and solely Republican. The Democrats at worst contributed a little bit through counter-cyclical spending (which sane Republicans would have done anyway) and an ambitious health reform package (which they would not have).
  • Us debt doesn't give leverage to foreigners over the American economy (most holdings are by friendly countries anyway: Japan, Switzerland, the UK etc) which also suggests that they aren't dependent on American bond coupons for economic survival. Personally, a better mechanism for ECONOMIC ARMAGEDDON would be a slow-down in China. Even that would be pushing it though. Another possible mechanism is the bankruptcy of say, Italy and Spain. The window for that, I think, is closing rapidly.
  • Most of the people who claim to have called the Global Financial Crisis didn't. They called a down-turn, usually lots of times, and happened to get their timing correct. Peter and the Wolf is instructive on this issue. They usually put the 'cause' down to other issues too. Having said that, a handful of people seem to have identified the 'cause' of the Global Financial Crisis and called it more or less correctly. You can literally count on one hands the number of people who did it, and at least one of them made billions of dollars doing it.

Thlayli said:
Debt service is a pretty easy thing to do. Once it rises (in 20-30 years) to an unenviable proportion of government spending you'll see a similar combination of reductions in defense and welfare spending that Europe has taken as its primary focus. Taken together, our entitlement and defense spending assumes roughly three quarters of the budget on any given year. Depending on which party controls Congress at the time of serious structural reform, one or the other will be cut in greater proportion.

Nobody in Europe has made significant structural adjustments? And debt servicing isn't even the issue. Negative economic growth and over-leveraged housing are. If growth returned to trend in PIGs, the debt issue would go back to what it was beforehand a non-issue. Ireland is a point in case. (America would as well :3).

Thlayli said:
Demographic and geopolitical changes will both force a variety of changes in the budget (the end of Medicare "as we know it," closing of US military bases abroad, etc.) that both sides of the political spectrum will dislike, but in no way is our debt situation untenable; it becomes tenable with a variety of politically ugly solutions (Bowles-Simpson et al) that nobody is as of yet willing to endorse.

None of this is required. A return to trend growth and a consequent reduction in unemployment would fix a significant portion of the current Federal deficit. Most of the growth in the deficit is attributable to counter-cyclical spending and automatic stabilizers. Remove the impetus for both and the problem goes away. What little structural deficit there is can be fixed by repealing the Bush Tax Cuts.

Thlayli said:
The obvious answer is that historically, exponentially increasing debt levels do result in default. The economic consensus is that an American default would result in a global recession. Of course, the nominal level of debt that one maintains is irrelevant; as anyone can tell you, the only thing that matters is whether the market (and presumably, math) sees the debt level as tenable. Japan's level of debt is nominally quite high, over 200% of GDP, but there's no threat of a Japanese default in the near-term since this level is roughly stable. Greece's nominal debt is lower, at 136% of GDP after the recent restructuring, but uncertainty on Greece's ability to prevent this from increasing ad infinitum is what causes international bond market pressure and the threat of default.

America doesn't have exponentially increasing debt, so I guess it's safe.

talonschild said:
Apologies. As debt increases, those willing to lend money to an increasingly-indebted organization decreases. This is particularly the case as the organization makes no action to repay the debt, and simply pays ever-larger interest - both in hard numbers and in percentages.
False. Reserve currency.
 
@Samsniped: They must have updated it.

@Herobrine: I guessed from the name. And we should play sometime.

@Tom: Cool letter. Make you think.

@All: Thoight provoking discussion. Thanks for substantially increasing my economic knowledge.
 
Hey guys. Just back from my Daylong NESing recess (yesterday). It was hard, bloody effort, but I felt it was worth it as I dealt a significant dent in my real life commitments.

Next NESing Vacation is schedueled to be this Monday.
 

Link to video.

Some food for thought... Tell who you thought about.

@Arrow Gamer: Sure, I just haven't played it in a while.
 
My Grandmother sent me this today. It's a letter she found, which was sent by her father and mother to his sister. She translated it and transcribed it from Hungarian, and I thought it might interest some of you. Anyway, here, it is:
What a great story! Thanks.
 
I have sampled LeBoshWade NES: Bringing the Heat.

It is an abomination in the face of all that is good. It goes against everything NESing ought to stand for. Nuke should be embarrassed for what he has created, and everyone in it should be ashamed at its very existence in our subforum.

I totally joined it.
 
Burn the heretic! :deadhorse:
 
LeBoshWadeNES is like an IOT, but is much more difficult, and filled with much more capable players.
 
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