Will the 2010's be the new 1930's?

Marla_Singer

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If we look back at History, it's kind of weird how the 1930's started in a similar fashion as the 2010's.

We all know there was the 1929 financial crisis which turned into an economical crisis, and then a social crisis, and eventually a political crisis.

During the 1930's the world balance of power was clearly destabilized, and a bit as in tectonics with earthquakes, it suddenly accelerated. When we look at what happened in the Arab world with the Arab spring, and how China is quickly becoming the last resort creditor of the Western world, such an acceleration of History seems to happen again.

There's a power shift... a new world order is rising. We don't clearly know which one, but we do know it will be different from what we've known so far.

If we look back at History, such situations of power shifts have always lead to a war. However, such power shifts never occured since nuclear weapons exist. What was the most similar to that was the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, and it ended pacifically. However, the world leadership hasn't changed then. The US and Western Europe have always dominated the Eastern block.

Of course, we hardly see how we could end with an open conflict considering there are nukes around, but how would react the Western world if its middle class is getting destroyed by a globalization which considers it as expensive and unproductive? Of course, we aren't there yet and fortunately. But would the US and Europe accept to renounce to their way of life without violence?
 
My pessimistic/worst case scenario:

The US and european political elites will continue to screw their own people without a second thought, until they have an actual revolution brewing at their doors. Then they'll suddenly put forward some "saviours" who'll dish out some social democracy and fix their international economic problems by starting a few more wars for resources, by 2015/16.

A lot more arabs will get killed, along with iranians, and we may see a couple of the smaller and resource-rich south american countries "liberated" also. Just to drive home the point to all the others. Nothing world shattering...

Oh, and the EU will be long gone before we reach that point, of course. NATO, tough, will be more active than ever. And Russia may be tossed Ukraine and Belarus and the Caucasus back as bones to chew on and keep it happy. Central Asia is anyone's guess.
 
If we look back at History, such situations of power shifts have always lead to a war. However, such power shifts never occured since nuclear weapons exist. What was the most similar to that was the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, and it ended pacifically. However, the world leadership hasn't changed then. The US and Western Europe have always dominated the Eastern block.

Of course, we hardly see how we could end with an open conflict considering there are nukes around, but how would react the Western world if its middle class is getting destroyed by a globalization which considers it as expensive and unproductive? Of course, we aren't there yet and fortunately. But would the US and Europe accept to renounce to their way of life without violence?

What if history does repeat itself in cycles but globalization intertwines the economies of the world so much that the probability of worldwide war goes way down? And the only wars fought are unexpected regional conflicts and civil wars?

The corporations that rule the world don't want the money to stop flowing! The world economy must remain stable.. The spice must flow.

Greed will save the human race.
 
The world has gotten a lot more complicated since the 1930's. I don't think it's practical to draw parallel's.

The issues of the day back then were the issues of the day. The issues now (energy, climate change, etc.) are not going to go away until they are solved. Right now is the most piviotal time in history (thusfar).

What are we gonna call the 2010's BTW? What do people call the last decade?
 
The Great Depression was far worsen by the effects of protectionist policies adopted by a number of countries. Seeing that we are still trading all the way, this depression, although bad, will not result in the poverty shocking, angry voter fuel that will vote in any extremist parties, who I believe have more sense now than before, regardless of what Polish Youths do in Warsaw.
 
Global prediction: Western and other nations get more and more in debt. Corporations and banks step in to "bail-out" them but with a couple of conditions. We officially unofficially begin to be run by transnationals and metanationals.
 
No.

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Unless somebody constructs someone starts constructing some radical mass-parties in a hurry, it'll be a pretty poor re-enactment.
 
Helloooo eeeverybody, I'm doctor Nick! I still believe in capitalism, hugglebugz!!!!

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Probably it'll become even worse,because the jobs that automation and chinese overseas factories got from western works won't be compensated and the public debt of western countries will affect global economic stability for the next 20 years . If there will be uprisings or military conspiracies to take the governement,I can't answer .
 
Only if Germany goes crazy in the next few years.

I do think the EU is headed to collapse, though.
 
I don't see any massive change in the political side.
Unless..a Nick Clegg government gives away Gibralter to Spain or something /dystopia :P
 
Or Portugal and Spain unite under a Big Brother dictatorship. :p
 
Portugal is a fruit loop and Spain is a bowl of milk. Go get some breakfast club!
 
The US and european political elites will continue to screw their own people without a second thought, until they have an actual revolution brewing at their doors.

That's assuming that the people are actually being screwed. Are the people of Europe and the US being screwed? The people who make over $40,000 a year and have relatively low crime in comparison to every other place on earth and any time in history? They definitely have some serious stuff to revolt about.
 
It won't be as bad as the 1930's. It was so much more horrible back then that we can't even imagine. I mean, I support a strong safety net, but our current poor people do have cell phones, tv's, & PlayStations. They are nowhere near as bad off as the '30's poor people, who were, like, dying & stuff. It's terrible to be poor now. It was deadly then.

What are we gonna call the 2010's BTW? What do people call the last decade?
The aught's, of course, just like they called 1900-1909. Why, I remember back in aught-eight, when the economy collapsed & I first began to tell those kids to get off my lawn, for example.
 
That's assuming that the people are actually being screwed. Are the people of Europe and the US being screwed? The people who make over $40,000 a year and have relatively low crime in comparison to every other place on earth and any time in history? They definitely have some serious stuff to revolt about.
The French peasantry c.1789 were probably the most prosperous peasantry in Europe. So there's that. :mischief:
 
It's already looking like 1930. :(
 
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