Will there be a new great Depression?
- Thread starter Kyriakos
- Start date
Archbob
Ancient CFC Guardian
2012 is the end anyways. If there is one, the corporate fatcats will triumph in the end.
Integral
Can't you hear it?
No.
Defining a "Depression" as a drop in demand (PQ) by one-third or U3 unemployment rising beyond 15%...the Fed simply wouldn't let that happen. We'd be on QE20.
And I do claim to be 100% sure.
(EDIT: more conventionally, "Depression" is a drop in output of 10%, though there's no hard definition. I use one-third because that's how large the drop was in the 1930s.)
Defining a "Depression" as a drop in demand (PQ) by one-third or U3 unemployment rising beyond 15%...the Fed simply wouldn't let that happen. We'd be on QE20.
And I do claim to be 100% sure.
(EDIT: more conventionally, "Depression" is a drop in output of 10%, though there's no hard definition. I use one-third because that's how large the drop was in the 1930s.)
Narz
keeping it real
Probably. It appears we're already pushing upon limits to growth.
So worst case scenario is a painfully long extended recession?
Integral
Can't you hear it?
Short of an asteroid strike, yes.
Bernanke has shown that there's a floor on inflation around 1%. If inflation dips below that level, he starts stimulating. That basically puts a floor on how bad things can get.
He shows no urgency in getting the economy back to its pre-recession growth path, and the fiscal side is pretty useless with a dysfunctional Congress.
So we muddle along on a growth path that's entirely consistent with 10% unemployment.
GenMarshall
High Elven ISB Capt & Ghost Agent
Were already IN a depression!!
)katipunero
Prince
not in the next 5 years, nope. well, hopefully.
Ayatollah So
the spoof'll set you free
No, but I think our US recession will deepen, and much of the world take a hit, when the Euro goes kablooey.
Quackers
The Frog
I have faith in policymakers not to get it that wrong 
_random_
Jewel Runner
No we're not. As Integral explained, these words have specific meanings, and you can't just throw them around because they sound bad.
GenMarshall
High Elven ISB Capt & Ghost Agent
I don't know, with the lack of hiring, no wage increases, and a sour consumer confidence, It feels were entering a depression and the recession never ended.
I don't think depression actually does have a specific meaning. Paul krugman calls this a depression, even though it's not as bad as the great depression.
amadeus
Bishop of Bio-Dome
I think somewhere down the line, we are going to be in big trouble. I think we'll escape the recession, but I think they'll do it by inflating another bubble the consequences of which are going to leave a lot of people in dire straits. Worse yet, there is bailout mania and the mindset of many Americans is that when things get realy bad, the govenment—the same one that creates the bubbles, the same group of oligarchs that profit from it—will in its benevolence bail out the American people, and will enslace them in the process.
Ron Paul is really our only hope. Why? Well, it isn't tied to the man itself, though still a great champion of liberty. Rather, it would be a signal that the American people understand what's going on and want real change.
Ron Paul is really our only hope. Why? Well, it isn't tied to the man itself, though still a great champion of liberty. Rather, it would be a signal that the American people understand what's going on and want real change.
