You are the President on March 4, 1861...

[Gucumatz]

Maybe he could have prevented the North from starting the war with an unprovoked attack on Fort Sumter.

...it was the North, wasn't it?

If we are going to be calling it the war of "Northern Aggression", then shouldn't we blame Buchanan? After all when most of the forts in the South were being abandoned by the Union - Buchanan gave orders (that were leaked to the Southern Press) to double down with fort Sumter and send more troops.

Buchanan didn't have the guts to make a decision once he sent extra troops to Fort Sumter though and left them in limbo for over a month and leaving them desperately surrounded rationing what little food they had left.

Robert Anderson, the guy in charge of defending Fort Sumter was friends and actually a former teacher and a key mentor to several of the south's most important Generals, including Beauregard. Anderson knowing that his men couldn't go on starving and thinking neither Buchanan nor Lincoln would support them, actually sent Beauregard a letter telling him that if the Blockade was kept up for another week - Anderson and the union, would have to surrender the fort without a single shot.

The Confederacy knew this (that Fort Sumter would have surrendered in a week regardless) - but instead of waiting a week, the Confederates ordered Beauregard to start firing on the fort, because the Confederacy wanted the war. Not unlike how when Germany attacked Poland, the main goal was getting the war started

 

[bugwar]

The Confederacy knew this (that Fort Sumter would have surrendered in a week regardless) - but instead of waiting a week, the Confederates ordered Beauregard to start firing on the fort, because the Confederacy wanted the war.

That is an interesting viewpoint on what happened at Fort Sumter.

From what I have read about the battle, if the CSA had waited, the U.S. would have succeeded in resupplying the fort, as well as bolstering its defenses with warships and additional manpower.


From the article:

On April 4, as the supply situation on Sumter became critical, President Lincoln ordered a relief expedition, to be commanded by former naval captain (and future Assistant Secretary of the Navy) Gustavus V. Fox, who had proposed a plan for nighttime landings of smaller vessels than the Star of the West.
Fox's orders were to land at Sumter with supplies only, and if he was opposed by the Confederates, to respond with the U.S. Navy vessels following and to then land both supplies and men.
This time, Maj. Anderson was informed of the impending expedition, although the arrival date was not revealed to him.
On April 6, Lincoln notified Governor Pickens that "an attempt will be made to supply Fort Sumter with provisions only, and that if such attempt be not resisted, no effort to throw in men, arms, or ammunition will be made without further notice, [except] in case of an attack on the fort."

...
At 4:30 a.m. on April 12, Lt. Henry S. Farley, acting upon the command of Capt. George S. James, fired a single 10-inch mortar round from Fort Johnson.
(James had offered the first shot to Roger Pryor, a noted Virginia secessionist, who declined, saying, "I could not fire the first gun of the war.")
The shell exploded over Fort Sumter as a signal to open the general bombardment...
...
Ships from Fox's relief expedition began to arrive on April 12.
Although Fox himself arrived at 3 a.m. on his steamer Baltic, most of the rest of his fleet was delayed until 6 p.m., and one of the two warships, USS Powhatan, never did arrive.
...
As landing craft were sent toward the fort with supplies, the artillery fire deterred them and they pulled back.
Fox decided to wait until after dark and for the arrival of his warships.
The next day, heavy seas made it difficult to load the small boats with men and supplies and Fox was left with the hope that Anderson and his men could hold out until dark on April 13.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Sumter

 

[Gucumatz]

Except the CSA had a blockade around the fort. The relief expedition didn't have permission to go forward if the CSA didn't allow it to, which it didn't. This wasn't an armed expedition either [No amount of arms, soldiers, etc.] just a ship with food, water, and other necessity supplies. Lincoln didn't want to provoke anything just yet. Again - all the CSA had to do was basically wait (considering the ship of supplies wouldn't be able to reach Sumter) and the fort would have been theirs. Beyond that fact, any tactician would have told you the fort had no real strategic military value for either the union or the south, but was merely a symbolic action from Buchanan that was as we all see now... poorly planned

 

[Gucumatz]

Here is Beauregard acknowledging both the military intelligence that Sumter would have to surrender within a week and acknowledging Anderson's earlier comment:

Charleston, S.C., April 11, 1861.
MAJOR: In consequence of the verbal observation made by you to my aides, Messrs. Chesnut and Lee, in relation to the condition of your supplies, and that you would in a few days be starved out if our guns did not batter you to pieces, or words to that effect, and desiring no useless effusion of blood, I communicated both the verbal observations and your written answer to my communications to my Government.
If you will state the time at which you will evacuate Fort Sumter, and agree that in the mean time you will not use your guns against us unless ours shall be employed against Fort Sumter, we will abstain from opening fire upon you. Colonel Chesnut and Captain Lee are authorized by me to enter into such an agreement with you. You are, therefore, requested to communicate to them an open answer.
I remain, major, very respectfully, your obedient servant,


G. T. BEAUREGARD,
Brigadier-General, Commanding.
Maj. ROBERT ANDERSON,
Commanding Fort Sumter, Charleston Harbor, S.C.
=========

The Confederate Government KNEW that Fort Sumter would surrender within a week, but despite this Jefferson Davis ordered Beauregard to fire on Sumter anyways

 

[Commodore]

Beyond that fact, any tactician would have told you the fort had no real strategic military value for either the union or the south, but was merely a symbolic action from Buchanan that was as we all see now... poorly planned

Why would a tactician comment on the strategic value of anything?

 

[Gucumatz]

My bad. I use those two interchangeably too often in english. I was trying to say useless for the broader strategic view (although from a tactical outlook the fort was sort of useless anyways in regards to the harbor)

 

[Commodore]

My bad. I use those two interchangeably too often in english. I was trying to say useless for the broader strategic view (although from a tactical outlook the fort was sort of useless anyways in regards to the harbor)

And you are completely correct in your assessment of the fort's tactical and strategic worth.

I didn't mean to imply you don't know the difference between strategy and tactics; it's just a little pet peeve of mine when tactics and strategy are talked about like they are the same thing.

 

[bugwar]

This wasn't an armed expedition either [No amount of arms, soldiers, etc.] just a ship with food, water, and other necessity supplies.

Once again, another interesting opinion from you.
No 'arms or soldiers' eh?

Please note the following: (bold type added by me)

On April 4, President Lincoln sent word to Major Anderson that an attempt would be made to supply Fort Sumter with provisions "and, in case the effort is resisted . . . to reenforce you."
Convinced from "on the spot" reports that such an expedition was feasible, and that there was no Union sentiment in South Carolina to which to appeal, Lincoln had decided upon the nearest thing to preserving the status quo.
Merchant steamers under cover of ships of war would carry "subsistence and other supplies" to Anderson; the ships of war (with troop reenforcements) would be used only if a peaceable landing were opposed."

Source: http://www.cr.nps.gov/history/online_books/hh/12/hh12e.htm

Beyond that fact, any tactician would have told you the fort had no real strategic military value for either the union or the south, but was merely a symbolic action from Buchanan that was as we all see now... poorly planned

The worth of the fort was not so much its military value, though it would be an obstacle to Southern blockade-runners while it was held by the Union.
Its true worth was political.
An 1861 version of the Alamo.

The Confederate Government KNEW that Fort Sumter would surrender within a week, but despite this Jefferson Davis ordered Beauregard to fire on Sumter anyways

Nope.
The best you can state with any relation to reality is that Sumter would probably fall within the week, PROVIDED no resupply reached the fort.
Once resupplied, the clock is running again.
The South also knew that resupply and reinforcements were on the way, and would arrive shortly.


On April 6, Lincoln notified Governor Pickens that "an attempt will be made to supply Fort Sumter with provisions only, and that if such attempt be not resisted, no effort to throw in men, arms, or ammunition will be made without further notice, [except] in case of an attack on the fort.

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Sumter#Bombardment

Note that the message Lincoln provided the Confederate Governor stated that the resupply would be of provisions only, provided such attempt be NOT Resisted.
ANY resistance and the gloves come off.

So the South was on the horns of a dilemma again.
Allow the resupply and continue suffering from a Federal fortress sitting in the middle of a Confederate major seaport, or stop the resupply by firing on the arriving ships.

As it turns out, Major Anderson's (conditional) response to the Rebel surrender ultimatum told the Confederates that the fort might hold out for the indefinite future, unless forced to yield.
They chose to fire on the fort rather than hope that the resupply would be late, or that Anderson would not receive new orders.

 

[Tee Kay]

Allow the resupply and continue suffering from a Federal fortress sitting in the middle of a Confederate major seaport, or stop the resupply by firing on the arriving ships.

I don't know what you expect if you launch a rebellion.

 

[Gucumatz]

And here is Anderson saying he would surrender the fort by April 15th...

GENERAL: I have the honor to acknowledge the receipt by Colonel Chesnut of your second communication of the 11th instant, and to state in reply that, cordially uniting with you in the desire to avoid the useless effusion of blood, I will, if provided with the proper and necessary means of transportation, evacuate Fort Sumter by noon on the 15th instant, and that I will not in the mean time open my fires upon your forces unless compelled to do so by some hostile act against this fort or the flag of my Government by the forces under your command, or by some portion of them, or by the perpetration of some act showing a hostile intention on your part against this fort or the flag it bears, should I not receive prior to that time controlling instructions from my Government or additional supplies.
I am, general, very respectfully, your obedient servant,


ROBERT ANDERSON,
Major, First Artillery, Commanding.
Brig. Gen. BEAUREGARD,
Commanding.
========

From you source:

" Meanwhile, in the face of local preparations, an estimated force of 20,000 men would now be needed to reenforce and supply Fort Sumter. It was clear that if Anderson's local "fresh food" supply were cut off, he would soon be in a desperate state. At the same time it seemed almost equally clear that a relief expedition would be an impossibility. The entire Army of the United States numbered less than 16,000 men. "Evacuation seems almost inevitable," wrote General Scott"

Buchanan sent a disguised ship of war and it was beat back easily - this was before partial mobilization as well. The fact that it was estimated it would take more troops than the US Army had active at the time to re-enforce the fort and the already active movement of hostile CSA troops in SC meant an attack was never an option

The relief expedition outside of Fort Sumter never moved in when Fort Sumter was attacked, did it not? In Lincoln's case the ships remained outside the harbor before, during, and after the firing on the fort - Even though the expedition was within range to move in to assist the fort.

 

[bugwar]

And here is Anderson saying he would surrender the fort by April 15th...

GENERAL: I have the honor to acknowledge the receipt by Colonel Chesnut of your second communication of the 11th instant, and to state in reply that, cordially uniting with you in the desire to avoid the useless effusion of blood, I will, if provided with the proper and necessary means of transportation, evacuate Fort Sumter by noon on the 15th instant, and that I will not in the mean time open my fires upon your forces unless compelled to do so by some hostile act against this fort or the flag of my Government by the forces under your command, or by some portion of them, or by the perpetration of some act showing a hostile intention on your part against this fort or the flag it bears, should I not receive prior to that time controlling instructions from my Government or additional supplies.
I am, general, very respectfully, your obedient servant,


ROBERT ANDERSON,
Major, First Artillery, Commanding.
Brig. Gen. BEAUREGARD,
Commanding.
========

From you source:

Please pay attention to the part of your above post I put in bold.


As I noted in my response, (and you were so kind as to repeat in yours)
Anderson wrote he would surrender IF and ONLY IF he was neither resupplied or received controlling instructions.

That is not a surrender agreement, that is a stall.

It was nicely done if I might add.
It was good enough to mislead you, if not the actual Confederate leadership.

Lincoln had set up the situation nicely for the South to take the fall.
If the Confederates did nothing till the 15th, then Anderson gets his supplies and keeps his word.
Now the siege clock starts again.

If the Confederates decide that a Federal fort in the middle of the harbor of Charleston
must be taken out before it is resupplied, then they get painted as the bad guys for firing first
(either on the resupply ships, or by attacking the fort itself.)

 

[Gucumatz]

Except as I pointed out - There was no way to get to the fort. The threat of force was at best a bluff. Remember the ships were outside of the harbor the entire time Fort Sumter was being fired on. Remember Buchanan had already sent an expedition, which was fired upon and forced to retreat and this was before Charleston was properly armed. Buchanan's expedition didn't start a war either, because the expedition was commanded to retreat if fired upon not unlike Lincoln's expedition. There was 0 chance of re-enforcement. The fact is that Lincoln was advised it would take more than the entire Army of the US at the time to be able re-enforce Fort Sumter, meant it was not a matter of "when" the fort would be re-enforced, but that it was impossible to do so.

If the Confederates did nothing - The fort would have fallen on the 15th. The ships were already outside of the harbor and had been refused access... yet despite the refusal of access they didn't move in, did they? Instead - knowing that the ships weren't moving in, Davis still ordered the firing.

 

[MagisterCultuum]

I'd raise some questions about the legitimacy of state legislatures voting for independence with a simple majority, without even calling on referenda. I'd encourage them to refer the issue to their people, and to allow any counties that wish to stay in the union to do so.

I'd encourage the Congress to pass a constitutional amendment clarifying a legal process whereby any future state or region could be permitted to leave the union peacefully. It should have to be at least as difficult as it would be for the state to ratify a new constitution, and should requiring the seceding party assuming its share of the national debt as well as paying fair market value for any Federal property that cannot be easily relocated.

If that passed, then I would insist that the seceding states meet the new Constitutional criteria in order to have their independence recognized. If I could not get it to pass, then I would still send diplomats to demand payment for Federal property located in the Southern states, and the safe return of any troops stationed there.


I'd take advantage of secession and work to pass many laws which the South would certainly have blocked if they still had the right to vote in Congress.

I'd remind people that by leaving the Union, the now Confederate States had lost any right to demand the extradition of any runaway slaves. I'd point out that laws already in place forbid the importation of slaves from outside of the United States, now that the Confederate states were not part of the US that a lot of troublesome Supreme Court cases could no longer be used by the slavers' side.

I'd take advantage of the lack of representatives from the Confederacy to quickly abolish the Fugitive Slaves Acts once and for all, so that not even runaway slaves from slave states that did not rebel could be returned to their masters. I would push forward laws that automatically free any slave who sets foot in any Free soil (which should include all the Federal properties such as military bases in the South for which the Confederacy had not yet fully paid), and which treat returning a runaway slave as just as serious a felony as abducting a free born person. (I'd remind people that the bible called for the decapitation of those who return runaway slaves to their masters.) I'd then work towards a constitutional amendment to end slavery altogether.

I'd pass a special tariff on all goods imported from counties where slave labor is legal, and earmark the revenue thus gained to be put towards the purchase and manumission of slaves.

I'd personally write to all the Confederate leaders thanking them for permitting me to do so much to free the slaves that would have been impossible had they been smart enough not to secede. I might even erect some monuments honoring how stupid they were.

 

[Gucumatz]

All of that sounds relatively well, but it sounds like you would piss off all of the border states with the tariffs, removing the Fugitive Slave Act, and the letters. You might have even lost several border states who didn't leave the union - Lincoln constantly reminded the states still in the Union he was in favor of maintaining the Fugitive Slave Act, which was key in maintaining Maryland from leaving the union and surrounding D.C.

 

[MagisterCultuum]

Eh, D.C. was a terrible location for a capitol anyway. It never made any sense to have the center of the government in the middle of a swamp during the summer. We'd be better of moving it back to Philadelphia even if none of the states wanted to secede. Let the Confederacy buy Washington too. We might as well put them in as much debt as possible.

 

[Cutlass]

Yeah, DC is a terrible location. But it was probably a necessary political compromise. So we're stuck with it.

 

[Gucumatz]

Maybe once a terrible decision building it on a swamp - but losing D.C. - even if it was a voluntary move, would have been a bigger political loss to Lincoln and the Republicans, not to mention morale loss than probably any battle in the actual war. And if Maryland rose up, there was the chance it could capture/seize any number of important members of the government. Lincoln had to smuggle himself into D.C. because of threats of assassination in Maryland and although Federal troops were huge in keeping the state at ease - the trio of your proposals would have changed that quickly imo

 

[Cutlass]

Yeah, once the war started, keeping DC had to be a primary objective. Politically as well as militarily.

 

[bugwar]

Except as I pointed out - There was no way to get to the fort.
The threat of force was at best a bluff.
Remember the ships were outside of the harbor the entire time Fort Sumter was being fired on.
Remember Buchanan had already sent an expedition, which was fired upon and forced to retreat and this was before Charleston was properly armed.
Buchanan's expedition didn't start a war either, because the expedition was commanded to retreat if fired upon not unlike Lincoln's expedition.
There was 0 chance of re-enforcement.
The fact is that Lincoln was advised it would take more than the entire Army of the US at the time to be able re-enforce Fort Sumter, meant it was not a matter of "when" the fort would be re-enforced, but that it was impossible to do so.

If the Confederates did nothing - The fort would have fallen on the 15th.
The ships were already outside of the harbor and had been refused access... yet despite the refusal of access they didn't move in, did they?
Instead - knowing that the ships weren't moving in, Davis still ordered the firing.

Okay, lets recap.


Lincoln, as near as I can tell, is NOT Buchanan.
Buchanan is out of office, his failed policies quickly making him the 1861 version of Chamberlain.

Abraham means to keep the Union intact, by diplomacy if possible, by force if necessary.

Lincoln, for political reasons, wants the South to fire the first shot during his administration if there is to be conflict.
He sets that up by sending a task force to resupply and or reinforce Ft. Sumter.
He uses civilian ships to transport the non-military supplies, confining the military forces and goods to the escorting U.S. Navy warships.

He sends a message to the South that Ft Sumter WILL be resupplied.
He goes on to let them know that if there is NO resistance to the mission, then only non-military supplies will be unloaded.
If however, the Confederacy shows ANY sign of resistance, then the force will unload troops and their gear in addition to the foodstuffs.

So either way, Lincoln wins.

If the South does nothing (as I understand you think they should) then Major Anderson will continue to hold out with the fresh supplies
(remember, he promises to surrender ONLY if he is not resupplied), AND keep his word on the conditional surrender agreement.
He doesn't have to surrender because he got his supplies.
Lincoln can loudly proclaim that he maintained the outpost in the face of a Rebel bluff.
He gets the points, the South gets egg on its face.

If the South interferes with the resupply, either by firing on the ships or the fort itself, Lincoln gains major face in the North.
He can rally the northern states to defend the Republic in the face of Rebel aggression. Another win for the Republican president.

Except as I pointed out - There was no way to get to the fort.

Um, if we follow your advice, and the South does nothing till the 15th, then the resupply ships just sail in and unload.
Not difficult to do while you are doing nothing to oppose the landing.

The threat of force was at best a bluff.

Nope. It was essential to convincing the South that doing nothing (as you counsel) was even worse than using force.

Remember the ships were outside of the harbor the entire time Fort Sumter was being fired on.

Nope. They tried to resupply the fort even as it was being attacked, but were driven off by artillery fire from the shore batteries.
At the moment the Confederates started shooting, the outpost and fleet had accomplished it's primary goal, that of making the South the bad guys.

Remember Buchanan had already sent an expedition, which was fired upon and forced to retreat and this was before Charleston was properly armed.
Buchanan's expedition didn't start a war either, because the expedition was commanded to retreat if fired upon not unlike Lincoln's expedition.

As I mentioned earlier, Buchanan is not germane (other than as an example of what not to do).
Lincoln is not interested in letting the South leave, and set up the operation to further his goals of preserving the Union no matter which way the South responded.

There was 0 chance of re-enforcement.

Why?
Because the Confederacy was bombarding the fort?
That is a win for Lincoln, who now has a rally cry for the North to punish the South for starting the fight.

The fact is that Lincoln was advised it would take more than the entire Army of the US at the time to be able re-enforce Fort Sumter, meant it was not a matter of "when" the fort would be re-enforced, but that it was impossible to do so.

That bears on this discussion how?
The goal of the Federal mission was to get the South to commit to either allowing the fort to be resupplied (your decision),
or respond with force (historical option).
If you are going to lose a fort, might as well gain a major domestic political victory in the process.

If the Confederates did nothing - The fort would have fallen on the 15th.

Nope.
As pointed out in this post and earlier ones.
Doing nothing allows the resupply fleet to unload, and resets the clock on the siege.

The ships were already outside of the harbor and had been refused access... yet despite the refusal of access they didn't move in, did they?
Instead - knowing that the ships weren't moving in, Davis still ordered the firing.

I am not sure where you got this opinion. The closest reference I can find is:

Although Fox himself arrived at 3 a.m. on his steamer Baltic, most of the rest of his fleet was delayed until 6 p.m., and one of the two warships, USS Powhatan, never did arrive.
Unbeknownst to Fox, it had been ordered to the relief of Fort Pickens in Florida.
As landing craft were sent toward the fort with supplies, the artillery fire deterred them and they pulled back.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Fort_Sumter

So the fleet did attempt to conduct the resupply, though once they were fired upon, Lincoln accomplished his political goal.

 

[Core Imposter]

If you send a hostile fleet into another country's port then you are the aggressor.

The entire war was simply an effort to conquer a free people. It has been temporarily successful.

But it ain't over.