2012 Republican Nominee Poll II

[NickyJ]

As the new year begins, the Republican Presidential landscape has changed much since the last poll. Herman Cain suspended his campaign, Newt Gingrich rose and has begun to fall, Ron Paul rose and is starting to slide, and now Rick Santorum has begun to climb. And now, there are two days left until the Iowa Caucuses.

Not to brag, but I called it on Gingrich and Santorum last November:

Nobody said he [Santorum] would win the presidency. To a question about that, I would swiftly respond with "Hell, no." What I was saying was that Johnson or Santorum would surge, much like Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and now Gingrich. Like all the others, Gingrich will collapse in a month, up comes another person (I think it will be Johnson or Santorum), and then that person will collapse, continuing on in like fashion.

How did I come to the conclusion of Johnson/Santorum? Look at the string we've had so far: Bachmann (a nobody, collapsed), Perry (a notable person, however, he collapsed), Cain (a nobody, collapsed), and now Gingrich (relative nobody windbag). I expect history to repeat itself, so expect a nobody to come up who can probably regarded as not being serious. Johnson may simply be another Huntsman, but Santorum.... A nobody who isn't really viewed as being serious.

Having looked at that, I revise my statement to say that it will be Santorum who rises, and not Johnson.

Anyway, as it stands now, here are the results of recent polls in Iowa, courtesy of the Desmoine Register:

Spoiler :

So, the basic question is: Of the candidates in the poll, who do you think will win the party nomination? (The small-time, nobody candidates such as Jimmy McMillan and Fred Karger have been left out because they will not be able to win. However, Jon Huntsman has been left on for being a somewhat big name. Additionally, there shall be no alternative options.)

Finally, please keep the thread civil and serious.

 

[Ajidica]

Finally, please keep the thread civil and serious.

Why should we at CFC hold ourselves to a higher standard then the people desiring to be the leader of the free world and most powerful person on the planet?

 

[Kraznaya]

the frothy mix of lube and fecal matter that is sometimes the byproduct of anal sex fighting!

 

[Integral]

Bachmann
Perry
Cain
Newt

This is the most awkward way to nominate Mitt Romney imaginable.

 

[NickyJ]

Why should we at CFC hold ourselves to a higher standard then the people desiring to be the leader of the free world and most powerful person on the planet?

Because I should hope that CFC isn't a site solely devoted to politics.

 

[Save_Ferris]

We'll choose Mitt, but it will be awkward since he knows we've loved other candidates...

 

[Floating Pants]

That graph really shows steadiness in Paul's support, unlike Cain and Gingrich. I don't think he'll be dwindling like the others. But Santorum? Yeah, he will.

Mitt Romney has been the most likely candidate since the start, but Ron Paul's nomination wouldn't surprise me too much.

 

[Thedrin]

Romney.

Paul winning Iowa wouldn't surprise me too much. Paul winning overall would.

I voted for Perry in the last poll, back when he hadn't yet entered and there was a very scary possibility that he could become Bush III.

 

[Quackers]

Bush III!

EDIT: Can we have a go-to thread for the nominees, there are hundreds of'em floating around =O

 

[Ayatollah So]

I think it's more likely that social conservatives will pick one of {Newt, Santorum} and rally around him. Or just maybe Perry or Bachmann. As the field narrows, it might just happen by default. And then Mitt can be beat.

Around this time of the last prez election cycle, everyone had Hillary pegged as the Dem nominee. Maybe the electorate just doesn't like it when you tell them what they're gonna do

 

[bhsup]

Proudly standing with Mitt since 2007.

 

[NickyJ]

Can we have a go-to thread for the nominees, there are hundreds of'em floating around =O

What do you mean?

I think it's more likely that social conservatives will pick one of {Newt, Santorum} and rally around him. Or just maybe Perry or Bachmann. As the field narrows, it might just happen by default. And then Mitt can be beat.

Around this time of the last prez election cycle, everyone had Hillary pegged as the Dem nominee. Maybe the electorate just doesn't like it when you tell them what they're gonna do

Eh, I don't see them solidifying around anybody. Newt and his three marriages are kind of hard for social conservatives to rally behind, ans Santorum....... He's Santorum, so it ain't gonna happen. I expect the anti-Romney vote to be warring among themselves for which candidate to follow. By the time they're done, Romney should be doing pretty well.

Also take into account the undecided vote. I think that most of them are going to stand behind the most stable candidate: Romney.

 

[Traitorfish]

We'll choose Mitt, but it will be awkward since he knows we've loved other candidates...

"Gingrich was taking your Harley out for a weekend, nothing more"

 

[GoodSarmatian]

Why should we at CFC hold ourselves to a higher standard then the people desiring to be the leader of the free world and most powerful person on the planet?

You guys are still using this expression ?

 

[Ajidica]

Not really, but it is a useful USA#1! phrase.

 

[Quackers]

Nononono Adjiicia it's Herman Van Rompuy whose leader of the free world

 

[Oruc]

I'm hoping it will be Ron Paul

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Americans can be pretty whacky God love 'em , but I'm confident that sanity would be a pre requisite for who gets the vote when push comes to shove . Bachman , Gingrich and Perry therefore out , Paul struggling .

Really leaves Romney on account of relative normality and jawline.

 

[GamezRule]

It will still be Mitt.

 

[Tenochtitlan]

Hopefully Ron Paul