2020 US Election (Part One)

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Lets start with the premise that Bernie can't get the nomination. Who do folks feel the best about in that case?

I'm hearing that folks don't like Warren, don't like Harris, don't like Newsom, don't like Gabbard,... I think I'd been fine with any of those... I'm also seeing that folks don't like Biden,don't like Castro, don't like Booker, either of whom seem better than Trump to me... although I admit that I do worry that Biden is a sure recipe for a repeat of 2004.

Is it Beto that folks want? Are we waiting for someone better and as-yet unknown to emerge? Or is it Bernie-or-Bust again?

I could probably be convinced to vote for Warren, Harris, Booker, Beto, or Klobuchar of current definitely or probably running candidates, at least against Trump. There might be more that I am forgetting. All have significant warts but some positives going for them (Warren is generally economically more progressive than most, and has one of the more progressive/humanist foreign policy desires, but the DNA test was insulting and she's honestly not great in the spotlight, Harris has a terrible history as a prosecutor but appears to realize she needs to brush up on her progressive bonafides, Booker is much more progressive than THE LEFT yells about if you look at his voting record and policy proposals and speeches, but his ties to big pharma are also disgusting, same with Beto for the most part, just sub out pharma for energy companies, Klobuchar is probably the least progressive of these 5 but still much more so than you'd expect given her geography and she continually outperforms in elections what she also 'should' be getting).

I'd not vote for Gabbard or Bloomberg or Biden or Ojeda, and probably not for Gillibrand or De Blasio but I wouldn't say the latter two would be impossible.

 

[Lexicus]

Lets start with the premise that Bernie can't get the nomination. Who do folks feel the best about in that case?

I'm hearing that folks don't like Warren, don't like Harris, don't like Newsom, don't like Gabbard,... I think I'd been fine with any of those... I'm also seeing that folks don't like Biden,don't like Castro, don't like Booker, either of whom seem better than Trump to me... although I admit that I do worry that Biden is a sure recipe for a repeat of 2004.

Is it Beto that folks want? Are we waiting for someone better and as-yet unknown to emerge? Or is it Bernie-or-Bust again?

If Bernie's off the table then it's Warren a long way ahead of anyone else.

Ultimately I will vote for the Democratic nominee as it will be a choice between them and Trump and they are all a lot better than Trump. Gabbard would probably be the most difficult Democratic candidate for me to support but I would still hold my nose and vote for her. I don't think she has any shot at winning the nomination though.

 

[Takhisis]

Would Beto O'Rourke have better chance if he had won the election in Texas a couple months ago?

 

[Lexicus]

Would Beto O'Rourke have better chance if he had won the election in Texas a couple months ago?

Doubtful. And I think there's at least a reasonable chance that had he won he wouldn't want to run for President in 2020 anyway.

 

[Takhisis]

Maybe he's a rara avis: a consistent politician.

 

[Kyriakos]

I still do not identify why any actual dem (not dino) voters would have an issue with bernie. The establishment, sure; bloomberg had announced last time that he would run as an indie (lol) if Bern got the nomination.
Oh well, i guess it is better to have garbage nominations instead of one who would defeat trump; got to know one's priorities.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Most of the criticisms I have seen with Bernie are:

He's really old, he ran already, he's still a bit wishy-washy on race at the expense of class. Same with abortion, where he has spoken of and endorsed anti-choice Dems who are progressive economically.

 

[Takhisis]

If he were more definite he could make the argument that improvements in the economic structure might diminish the need for abortions. Nobody argues that an abortion is a ‘good’ thing, it's just a solution to a problem that can be prevented, thereby eliminating the need for such a solution.

Something along those lines.

 

[sophie]

Most of the criticisms I have seen with Bernie are:

He's really old, he ran already, he's still a bit wishy-washy on race at the expense of class. Same with abortion, where he has spoken of and endorsed anti-choice Dems who are progressive economically.

He's also not leftist enough. And there's the whole thing with allegations of sexual harassment against his staffers/aides.

 

[Lexicus]

He's also not leftist enough.

He's left-er than any of the others, unless you want to vote for *ominous music* a third-party candidate

And there's the whole thing with allegations of sexual harassment against his staffers/aides.

fwiw the person who was the initial subject of that story already said publicly that she didn't mean to imply Sanders was uniquely culpable or that his campaign was uniquely problematic.

 

[onejayhawk]

I stand corrected about the 2020 Senate map at 270towin. It isn't the default yet, but it is on the menu.

Would Beto O'Rourke have better chance if he had won the election in Texas a couple months ago?

Almost certainly. That said, he was not that close especially considering the amount of money he spent.

J

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Yeah the campaign stuff is bad, but the same thing has happened to Hillary and Harris so unless the candidate in question is crappy about it, the reality is every campaign staff has dudes and in turn assaulters on it I am sure.

 

[JollyRoger]

Almost certainly. That said, he was not that close especially considering the amount of money he spent.

J

He got much closer than Trump did against Cruz in Texas in 2016.

 

[Zkribbler]

I still do not identify why any actual dem (not dino) voters would have an issue with bernie.

Not an issue. Just age.

If Julian Castro is elected, he can institute a Scottish ban and outlaw golf.

 

[metalhead]

I still do not identify why any actual dem (not dino) voters would have an issue with bernie.

The most loyal and frequent Democratic voters are Black Gen Xers and Boomers. And specifically, Black women over the age of 40. It angers me that people think "actual dem voters" encompasses only people whose priorities are left-leaning economic policies.

Actual "Dem voters" are not who you think they are. Bernie does not speak for their interests, nor does he pretend to speak for their interests. His color-blind approach to inequality misses the interests of a huge portion of who actually encompasses "Dem voters." Blame him for having a huge blind spot with regards to inequality, not the people he misses on account of that blind spot.

 

[Lexicus]

Actual "Dem voters" are not who you think they are. Bernie does not speak for their interests, nor does he pretend to speak for their interests.

Odd then that he is more popular with black people than with white people, and more popular with women than with men. Indeed his least favorable demographic is white men.

His color-blind approach to inequality misses the interests of a huge portion of who actually encompasses "Dem voters."

And your identity-fundamentalist view of inequality misses the interests of pretty much everyone who isn't upper-middle-class or above. *shrugs* see look how easy it is to do that!

 

[onejayhawk]

He got much closer than Trump did against Cruz in Texas in 2016.

Your oneliners are slipping. I didn't get the punchline on that one.

There are a lot of reasons why a moderate Democratic voter would not go for Bernie. Start with the math. He could strip every dime made by the top 10% and not pay for his programs. This is one reason why there are a lot of former Democratic voters, such as Union workers. The party has forgotten their needs. In this instance, Bernie is talking about taking money out of their paychecks and giving back nothing.

J

 

[Sommerswerd]

Your oneliners are slipping. I didn't get the punchline on that one.

There are a lot of reasons why a moderate Democratic voter would not go for Bernie. Start with the math. He could strip every dime made by the top 10% and not pay for his programs. This is one reason why there are a lot of former Democratic voters, such as Union workers. The party has forgotten their needs. In this instance, Bernie is talking about taking money out of their paychecks and giving back nothing.

J

What potential Presidential candidates would you support/vote for?

 

[metalhead]

Odd then that he is more popular with black people than with white people, and more popular with women than with men. Indeed his least favorable demographic is white men.

Come on now, you know better than this. He is more popular among Black people generally because most Black people are Democrats, and most white people are Republicans. This would hold true for any high-profile Democrat.

How did he do among those groups in the Democratic primaries? I seem to recall him getting absolutely swamped in the South, and being rather bitter about his performance there and that Southern Black votes actually counted.

He can be viewed favorably by people who nevertheless prefer another candidate, too. It's not like there is massive opposition to Bernie Sanders among Democrats. But, you know, he did run for president recently and there was a clear preference for the other Democratic candidate. Yet somehow we're supposed to think they aren't "real Dem voters" or some nonsense like that *shrugs*

And your identity-fundamentalist view of inequality misses the interests of pretty much everyone who isn't upper-middle-class or above. *shrugs* see look how easy it is to do that!

What, trolling? Yeah, that is easy. What would be constructive, though, would be less defensiveness over critiques of Bernie Sanders.

 

[Lexicus]

Come on now, you know better than this.

If he did not speak, or even pretend to speak, to the interests of black people at all, as you claimed, I would expect his favorability among them to be lower than among white people. He is obviously speaking to the interests of at least some black people.

But, you know, he did run for president recently and there was a clear preference for the other candidate *shrugs*

Considering that the other candidate then proceeded to lose the Presidency to Donald Trump, do you really want to go there?

What, trolling? Yeah, that is easy. What would be constructive, though, would be less defensiveness over critiques of Bernie Sanders.

I only get defensive when you indulge your hate-boner for the guy to the point that you (unintentionally, I am sure) boost the narrative that racial justice and economic justice are somehow in tension.