2020 US Election (Part One)

[Berzerker]

Thats too bad, I was hoping for a ticket with him and Warren, but one of them needs to drop. That will probably leave Warren to face Biden by herself. The worst scenario is Biden sliding by as Warren and Sanders split the anti-establishment vote. She's not much better than Hillary when it comes to personality but she doesn't have her baggage either. Her only sin was playing an Indian which Trump has and will exploit, but anti-war, anti-corruption people can vote for her.

 

[Kyriakos]

Yeah, that's a heart attack 100%. They're trying to avoid saying it but that's absolutely what it was. It was cringeworthy listening to Sanjay Gupta trying to talk circles around it, especially with his campaign claiming that he might only be sidelined for "a few days", but he finally had to come out and say that "if it was a heart attack" he would have to be "out longer". The reality is that he really should be off the campaign trail for at least 3 to 6 weeks and after that he is also is going to need to do cardiac rehab for several months. It will be interesting to see how they try to keep this all quiet.

And yeah this does indeed suck, because this is just the thing his enemies need to legit come down hard on him about his age.

You should be reminded of how you reacted to web diagnosis of Hillary's collapse and head wobbling. Double standard gonna double standard? :/

If Bernie ends up having heart attacks, though, then US lost. He clearly was by far the best candidate. I am liking Warren less by the day, and Biden is just ridiculously bad.

 

[Sommerswerd]

You should be reminded of how you reacted to web diagnosis of Hillary's collapse and head wobbling. Double standard gonna double standard? :/

If Bernie ends up having heart attacks, though, then US lost. He clearly was by far the best candidate. I am liking Warren less by the day, and Biden is just ridiculously bad.

I'm not reacting based on "web diagnosis" Kyr. I'm reacting based on firsthand personal experience with the exact same thing Bernie just experienced.

I know you really, really, like Bernie... he just had a heart attack. That's all there is to it. It sucks, I know.

 

[Lexicus]

Yeah, that's a heart attack 100%.

It it was a heart attack it seems likely to have been a pretty minor one, anyway.

 

[Kyriakos]

It it was a heart attack it seems likely to have been a pretty minor one, anyway.

Dr. AntiBernieBros says otherwise

 

[Lexicus]

Dr. AntiBernieBros says otherwise

There's no need to engage in this passive-aggressive BS Kyr. None of us are rabidly anti-Bernie.

 

[Kyriakos]

There's no need to engage in this passive-aggressive BS Kyr.

It expresses me I am full on passive/progressive.

 

[Socrates99]

Hes not dropping out, both Clinton and Bush had the same procedure in their 60s.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

He has to stay in if for nothing else if he drops now, Biden's odds go up pretty substantially.

 

[Lexicus]

He has to stay in if for nothing else if he drops now, Biden's odds go up pretty substantially.

You think more of his supporters would migrate to Biden than to Warren?

 

[Kyriakos]

You think more of his supporters would migrate to Biden than to Warren?

I think it is very likely that if Bernie drops out, Trump will get re-elected. Unless, of course, Bernie becomes VP. Hillary would also have won had Bernie been VP (not that I am sure he would have agreed to play that role, if no substantial concessions were made).

Anyway, let's wait and see. Hopefully Bern will continue.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

You think more of his supporters would migrate to Biden than to Warren?

Yeah, I think so. I think there's time for that to change, but for all the leftists and students who support him, there are waaaaay more white midwesterners/black voters/etc. who make up his base. The last data I've seen from The Hill, CNN, 538, etc., has Biden as the most popular 2nd choice for Bernie voters by 10-15% over the next person, and Bernie as most popular 2nd choice for Biden voters. Warren is 2nd for Bernie voters and given her rapidly expanding name brand, it might just be a matter of needing still to build her popularity (she's actually improved even more as a "I would vote for her/2nd choice" than as a "she's my favorite"), but I also think there's something to be said for the demographic overlap between Bernie and Biden - it's more working class white and has more black voters than other candidates.

 

[Lexicus]

Yeah, I think so. I think there's time for that to change, but for all the leftists and students who support him, there are waaaaay more white midwesterners/similar people who make up his base. The last data I've seen from The Hill, CNN, 538, etc., has Biden as the most popular 2nd choice for Bernie voters by 10-15% over the next person, and Bernie as most popular 2nd choice for Biden voters. Warren is 2nd for Bernie voters and given her rapidly expanding name brand, it might just be a matter of needing still to build her popularity (she's actually improved even more as a "I would vote for her/2nd choice" than as a "she's my favorite"), but I also think there's something to be said for the demographic overlap between Bernie and Biden - it's more working class white and has more black voters than other candidates.

Any Bernie voter who has Biden as choice #2 is a full-on moron. I never thought I would say it but in light of this, that MSNBC woman was probably right that sexism is motivating many Bernie supporters.

 

[Kyriakos]

Any Bernie voter who has Biden as choice #2 is a full-on moron. I never thought I would say it but in light of this, that MSNBC woman was probably right that sexism is motivating many Bernie supporters.

Good, good, embrace the MSNBC program; let the bait flow through you.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Any Bernie voter who has Biden as choice #2 is a full-on moron

Yeah, it's ideologically wild, but it gets to the fact that identity > policy for politics. Biden is seen as electable, able to beat Trump, etc., and they're both older white dudes. They both do better with men than Warren or Harris (who do better with women obviously), etc., etc. They share a lot of base overlap.

A Bernie drop for whatever reason is a gain for Biden, while Warren dropping for whatever reason is a Harris/Pete gain.

Edit: Someone (Jamelle Bouie?) had a tweet about the fact that 2020 feels like a 2x2 grid where it's like

Gov change (Bernie and Warren) vs as-is (most everyone else, big time Biden) and then demographic change (Warren, Harris, Pete), vs. demo stability (Biden, Bernie, etc.) and the latter 2 squares are showing up to be way more important to voters than the former two.

 

[Kyriakos]

while Warren dropping for whatever reason is a Harris/Pete gain.

Those two don't matter anyway. Warren won't drop out, obviously, but if she would I'd expect it to give most of the voters to Bernie cause Warren tried to present herself as near Bernie, not Biden.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Those two don't matter anyway. Warren won't drop out, obviously, but if she would I'd expect it to give most of the voters to Bernie cause Warren tried to present herself as near Bernie, not Biden.

Well, maybe! I think Warren and Bernie's handshake agreement to buddy up will help bring their voters closer. But as of right now that would not happen. Warren and Bernie have very different bases. Warren voter's most popular 2nd choice is Harris.

People need to get beyond the "fact" that Bernie and Warren being relatively similar mean their voters are too. They're not! Policy truly doesn't matter much!

 

[Kyriakos]

Well, maybe! I think Warren and Bernie's handshake agreement to buddy up will help bring their voters closer. But as of right now that would not happen. Warren and Bernie have very different bases. Warren voter's most popular 2nd choice is Harris.

People need to get beyond the "fact" that Bernie and Warren being relatively similar mean their voters are too. They're not! Policy truly doesn't matter much!

So her voters are Wall Street and Washington Post ^_^

 

[Lexicus]

Gov change (Bernie and Warren) vs as-is (most everyone else, big time Biden) and then demographic change (Warren, Harris, Pete), vs. demo stability (Biden, Bernie, etc.) and the latter 2 squares are showing up to be way more important to voters than the former two.

Bernie would be the first Jewish President. Is it a form of soft antisemitism to ignore this?

Warren voter's most popular 2nd choice is Harris.

Just....wow. y r ppl like this

 

[DJNotNice]

Warren has seemed like the sensible choice for a long time considering we know the DNC won't let Bernie run. However this is 2019 and "sensible" is a thing of the past.
I think the whole Native American DNA thing is like...really, really bad. The right wing media will have an absolute field day with that, it's exactly the kind of ridiculous, self-serving identity politics that's turned so many people away from the Democrats in recent years. It seems a bit silly, but I actually think this single little issue can completely tank her campaign