2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Sommerswerd]

Biden is up 10 points on RCP. No recent poll has him less than +6. Multiple polls have him up by 14.

Obviously the numbers will change over the course of the next 4 months but Obama won by 7 points and got 365 electoral college votes. Daddy Bush won by 8 points and got 426 electoral college votes.

I admit it would be fascinating to see the Democrats win by 10 points and still only manage to win in about half of the states... would be pretty damning evidence against the electoral college.

 

[Imaus]

Biden is up 10 points on RCP. No recent poll has him less than +6. Multiple polls have him up by 14.

Obviously the numbers will change over the course of the next 4 months but Obama won by 7 points and got 365 electoral college votes. Daddy Bush won by 8 points and got 426 electoral college votes.

I admit it would be fascinating to see the Democrats win by 10 points and still only manage to win in about half of the states... would be pretty damning evidence against the electoral college.

Evidence, hrm. The winning party has no stomach to change the EC if they win by it. What good would the 'evidence' be then? Not like Blue America will secede over it.

 

[Patine]

Evidence, hrm. The winning party has no stomach to change the EC if they win by it. What good would the 'evidence' be then? Not like Blue America will secede over it.

The corrupt Duopoly and their plutocratic masters are the biggest threat to anything good ever coming of American politics. If any true advancement, improvement, and needed reform is EVER to be had, BOTH Duopoly Parties must meet their long-deserved political demise and be called out - BOTH of them - as the Post-Soviet-style Parties of Power they are, and big money must be divorced from political campaigning, and bribery and graft actually punished as the high crimes they are.

 

[caketastydelish]

Biden is up 10 points on RCP. No recent poll has him less than +6. Multiple polls have him up by 14.

Obviously the numbers will change over the course of the next 4 months but Obama won by 7 points and got 365 electoral college votes. Daddy Bush won by 8 points and got 426 electoral college votes.

I admit it would be fascinating to see the Democrats win by 10 points and still only manage to win in about half of the states... would be pretty damning evidence against the electoral college.

Yep. And that doesn't even include the following:

1) People in jail, other than Florida I believe, can't vote. Why is that? Almost all of them would vote democrat.
2) Besides them, there have been voter suppression laws specifically designed to make it harder (if not impossible) for disenfranchised people to vote. Nearly all of which would vote democrat.
3) Polling stations flat out being closed, or a lack of them being available. Almost all of which happens in areas where people would predominantly vote democrat.

If those 3 variables were corrected, in conjunction with the one that you mentioned, the Republicans would be toast at the Federal level, generally speaking.

edit: that said, if the Democrats end up controlling the house, the senate, and the executive branch after November's voting, and the Dems fail to fix this while they hold all the cards, then I will consider that to be a massive failure on their part.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

edit: that said, if the Democrats end up controlling the house, the senate, and the executive branch after November's voting, and the Dems fail to fix this while they hold all the cards, then I will consider that to be a massive failure on their part.

Considering that it has taken forty years of destruction by Republicans with very scant interruption that's a pretty big ask.

 

[cardgame]

The corrupt Duopoly and their plutocratic masters are the biggest threat to anything good ever coming of American politics. If any true advancement, improvement, and needed reform is EVER to be had, BOTH Duopoly Parties must meet their long-deserved political demise and be called out - BOTH of them - as the Post-Soviet-style Parties of Power they are, and big money must be divorced from political campaigning, and bribery and graft actually punished as the high crimes they are.

This won't happen without a violent revolution but you deplore violence and even nonviolent political extremism

 

[Patine]

This won't happen without a violent revolution but you deplore violence and even nonviolent political extremism

Monolithic corrupt party systems HAVE been toppled without bloody revolutions in the past. It just takes people who CARE about their nation and it's advancement and betterment to act in large numbers, not just constantly gripe and bellyache about the issue and keep voting in corrupt criminals and traitors who sell out to their nation to wealthy plutocrats and don't give a damn about the common people. But the Establishment would LIKE you to believe that the only way it's even possible they'll lose their grip on the engines of tyranny is a bloody revolution, and NOTHING else, to frighten you out of even seriously thinking to bring down this Two-Family Mafia at the ballot box...

 

[Ferocitus]

(Australian super-group) The Wiggles played BOK Center, Tusla on 2 August, 2009 to a packed house. Trump’s rally on Saturday was two thirds empty with just under 6,2000 entering the 19,000 capacity venue.

 

[Samson]

Biden is up 10 points on RCP. No recent poll has him less than +6. Multiple polls have him up by 14.

Obviously the numbers will change over the course of the next 4 months but Obama won by 7 points and got 365 electoral college votes. Daddy Bush won by 8 points and got 426 electoral college votes.

I admit it would be fascinating to see the Democrats win by 10 points and still only manage to win in about half of the states... would be pretty damning evidence against the electoral college.

538 has a nice graphic of this

 

[Sommerswerd]

538 has a nice graphic of this

Ironically, Biden's best bet is probably to just STFU and let President Ding Dong keep sinking himself. The current downward spiral the country is trapped in speaks volumes more about his malfeasance and incompetence than any speech by Biden ever could.

 

[Narz]

Seems like that's what he's doing.

The democrats who wanted "any competent adult" got half their wish anyway

 

[Gorbles]

Monolithic corrupt party systems HAVE been toppled without bloody revolutions in the past. It just takes people who CARE about their nation and it's advancement and betterment to act in large numbers, not just constantly gripe and bellyache about the issue and keep voting in corrupt criminals and traitors who sell out to their nation to wealthy plutocrats and don't give a damn about the common people. But the Establishment would LIKE you to believe that the only way it's even possible they'll lose their grip on the engines of tyranny is a bloody revolution, and NOTHING else, to frighten you out of even seriously thinking to bring down this Two-Family Mafia at the ballot box...

What monolithic corrupt party systems have been toppled without bloody revolutions? Do you have any examples?

 

[Samson]

What monolithic corrupt party systems have been toppled without bloody revolutions? Do you have any examples?

There are few examples, depending on how bloody you are allowed:

• The obvious ones are the fall of the eastern block.
• Tunisia is probably the best recent example
• If < 1000 deaths is not too bloody Egypt did it twice in 2.5 years. Is it a revolution if only one side has guns?
• The downfall of the Marcos in the Philippines
• Rose Revolution in Georgia
  
• Sudan and Algeria last year

Remember, nonviolent protests are twice as likely to succeed as armed conflicts – and those engaging a threshold of 3.5% of the population have never failed to bring about change.

 

[Lexicus]

Bad news out of KY as McGrath beats Booker (I'm sure the closure of all those polling places has nothing to do with that result...)

As of this moment Booker is up by 3.5%, a little under 3,000 votes. Really amazing stuff.

 

[Gorbles]

@Samson

al-Bashir was ousted with military support, in effect, described as a coup d'état. The Rose Revolution also featured military forces refusing to uphold the ongoing dictatorship (dictatorship? Possibly not, unsure. An instrument of Soviet interests in the region, anyhow).

I'm not saying this as a gotcha at all. I'm trying to explain that even those that are marked as bloodless (specifically bloodless) need to be examined as to the circumstances that made them possible. I certainly do not believe in Patine's claims about the general body of people (say, Americans in this case) that apparently aren't motivated in the same way. Look at the ongoing protests. Look at how the conservative-lead media has taken any chance possible to demonise the protestors, and how hard it has been for literal evidence of police violence to be even admitted (despite being internationally-recognised).

Add to this the current setup in the US, with a solid decade of rising far-right and alt-right influence on both the media and mainstream culture (to whatever arguable extent) - it polarises the status quo in a way that can't be compared to say, Georgia (in my opinion).

This is why I understand when people tell others to vote (in context of the elections). But it's also why I understand that people see the only other reckoning as a violent one.

 

[Samson]

@Samson

al-Bashir was ousted with military support, in effect, described as a coup d'état. The Rose Revolution also featured military forces refusing to uphold the ongoing dictatorship (dictatorship? Possibly not, unsure. An instrument of Soviet interests in the region, anyhow).

I'm not saying this as a gotcha at all. I'm trying to explain that even those that are marked as bloodless (specifically bloodless) need to be examined as to the circumstances that made them possible. I certainly do not believe in Patine's claims about the general body of people (say, Americans in this case) that apparently aren't motivated in the same way. Look at the ongoing protests. Look at how the conservative-lead media has taken any chance possible to demonise the protestors, and how hard it has been for literal evidence of police violence to be even admitted (despite being internationally-recognised).

Add to this the current setup in the US, with a solid decade of rising far-right and alt-right influence on both the media and mainstream culture (to whatever arguable extent) - it polarises the status quo in a way that can't be compared to say, Georgia (in my opinion).

This is why I understand when people tell others to vote (in context of the elections). But it's also why I understand that people see the only other reckoning as a violent one.

I basically agree with you. I was advocating for americans to buy guns and learn how to make burning tire barricades a few weeks before this whole thing kicked off. However it is worth emphasising how powerful non-violent protest can be. I cannot find estimates for the total number of protestors in the US, but surely it cannot be far off the magic 3.5% that has never been denied.

 

[Sommerswerd]

As of this moment Booker is up by 3.5%, a little under 3,000 votes. Really amazing stuff.

dafuc? I thought he already lost? Yesterday the vote totals had him down by 4000 votes.

 

[Patine]

What monolithic corrupt party systems have been toppled without bloody revolutions? Do you have any examples?

Poland 1989, East Germany 1989, Czechoslovakia 1990, Hungary 1990, Bulgaria 1990 (admittedly, Romania was a bit bloodier), Mongolia 1991, Tunisia 2011 (Egypt was not AS bloodless that year, but didn't lead to civil war). There's some examples. Ones I thought you'd know well, there...

 

[Patine]

@Samson

al-Bashir was ousted with military support, in effect, described as a coup d'état. The Rose Revolution also featured military forces refusing to uphold the ongoing dictatorship (dictatorship? Possibly not, unsure. An instrument of Soviet interests in the region, anyhow).

I'm not saying this as a gotcha at all. I'm trying to explain that even those that are marked as bloodless (specifically bloodless) need to be examined as to the circumstances that made them possible. I certainly do not believe in Patine's claims about the general body of people (say, Americans in this case) that apparently aren't motivated in the same way. Look at the ongoing protests. Look at how the conservative-lead media has taken any chance possible to demonise the protestors, and how hard it has been for literal evidence of police violence to be even admitted (despite being internationally-recognised).

Add to this the current setup in the US, with a solid decade of rising far-right and alt-right influence on both the media and mainstream culture (to whatever arguable extent) - it polarises the status quo in a way that can't be compared to say, Georgia (in my opinion).

This is why I understand when people tell others to vote (in context of the elections). But it's also why I understand that people see the only other reckoning as a violent one.

I think a problem in the U.S., I admit, is the divide and conquer principle. When Obama was President, it was the Tea Party and related groups who were spouting revolutionary-worded rhetoric. Now that Trump is President it's Social Progressive groups who are. Americans REALLY have to realize, and come to terms, with the fact, that BOTH major parties are crummy, corrupt, and full of criminals, have betrayed, utterly, their mandates of office and public service, keep malicious secrets from their own people, commit high state crimes of awe-inspiring magnitude - embezzling taxpayers' to do so - and kowtow to plutocratic oligarchs over their own constituents, and that NO real needed betterment, reform, improvement, integrity, or accountability for the vast majority of Americans will EVER come of ticking a Democratic OR a Republican candidate's name on an electoral ballot.

 

[Samson]

I think a problem in the U.S., I admit, is the divide and conquer principle. When Obama was President, it was the Tea Party and related groups who were spouting revolutionary-worded rhetoric. Now that Trump is President it's Social Progressive groups who are. Americans REALLY have to realize, and come to terms, with the fact, that BOTH major parties are crummy, corrupt, and full of criminals, have betrayed, utterly, their mandates of office and public service, keep malicious secrets from their own people, commit high state crimes of awe-inspiring magnitude - embezzling taxpayers' to do so - and kowtow to plutocratic oligarchs over their own constituents, and that NO real needed betterment, reform, improvement, integrity, or accountability for the vast majority of Americans will EVER come of ticking a Democratic OR a Republican candidate's name on an electoral ballot.

I think you are right. You have less chance of needing that gun if you vote for Biden though.