2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Commodore]

Here's my first prediction map for the 2020 presidential election. I have my own method I use to make my predictions. It's nothing complicated, but it did predict a Trump win in 2016 when pretty much every other "official" model predicted a Clinton win.

So yeah, my prediction is a Biden win.

 

[cardgame]

oh, post it to the Predictions thread maybe

otherwise nobody is going to remember page 242 of this humongous serial thread

 

[Kyriakos]

Hm, what would happen if in the above MI goes to Trump?
Isn't that 269-269?

 

[Farm Boy]

Not sure about iowa there.

 

[EgonSpengler]

So I'm reading about this "open letter" that a number of African-American celebrities have endorsed, demanding that Joe Biden name a Black running mate. The implication of the letter seemed to be that, if he doesn't choose a Black woman, they won't vote for him. fwiw, they didn't say they'd vote for Trump - I think there was a line in the letter about not wanting to vote for the lesser of two evils - the implication was that they wouldn't vote at all. Of course I have no idea how many people this letter speaks for.

I do understand the position of not being enthusiastic about Joe Biden. I'm not, and I don't think I know a single person who is. Still, I feel like anyone who could have voted but didn't always bears a "½ share" of the responsibility for whoever the winner eventually is. If the person they would've voted for gets elected anyway, then great; if not...

But this year, I feel like it's important to have as big a margin of victory as possible. I worry that a "squeaker" in this election might be a worst-case scenario.

I also wonder if people realize that 1/3rd of Senate seats are on the block, as well as the entire House of Representatives. If the folks who're tired of choosing the lesser of two evils simply decide not to show up on election day, they're throwing a lot more than just the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[AdrienIer]

Hm, what would happen if in the above MI goes to Trump?
Isn't that 269-269?

The newly elected house of representatives votes for the president (it's a state by state vote so republicans have an advantage even if democrats have a majority there) and the senate votes for the VP.

 

[Commodore]

oh, post it to the Predictions thread maybe

otherwise nobody is going to remember page 242 of this humongous serial thread

I just figured since this thread is about the election, it would be more appropriate here.

Not sure about iowa there.

It was a close call in my method, but ultimately it leaned towards Democrats.

 

[Farm Boy]

Maybe. Trump and pandemic might do it, but its economics have been trending away from the coasts for a while. I guess we'll see if trade is refreshable with tomorrow's 800 lb authoritarian monster on whether that's reversible? Or if the Trew Blews change tac with power?

 

[EgonSpengler]

270towin keeps an electoral map based on current polling that already shows Biden at 272 electoral votes, to Trump's 107. The obvious caveat is, "hey, polling *shrug*", so big grain of salt and all that.

 

[Kyriakos]

Shouldn't Biden reveal who the VP would be?
Let's hope that, unless it is something absolutely abysmal, it will be impossible for Biden to lose.

 

[Commodore]

Shouldn't Biden reveal who the VP would be?
Let's hope that, unless it is something absolutely abysmal, it will be impossible for Biden to lose.

Maybe he hasn't revealed it yet because he doesn't have one. Maybe everyone he asks keeps turning him down.

 

[Kyriakos]

Maybe he hasn't revealed it yet because he doesn't have one. Maybe everyone he asks keeps turning him down.

I hope so, cause that would have meant he actually tried to ask decent people. Cause we all know the usual suspects would never say no.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Shouldn't Biden reveal who the VP would be?
Let's hope that, unless it is something absolutely abysmal, it will be impossible for Biden to lose.

He will. Maybe today; certainly this week. Once he does the drama fades and the attacks begin.

 

[EgonSpengler]

The running-mate stakes might have more weight than they usually do, because some are thinking that if Biden wins he may not run for re-election. So his VP would be the front-runner for the 2024 Democratic nomination. There's also the worry that our next President, whoever he is, will be our oldest President ever. This in the age of COVID-19. A serving President needn't die in office for the VP to have to take the Captain's Chair for a bit. If he goes into hospital for a week or two, with the flu or COVID-19 or a heart procedure like Bernie Sanders had last Fall, the VP would be President for a week or two. Hello, North Korea. Hello, Iran.

 

[Birdjaguar]

The running-mate stakes might have more weight than they usually do, because some are thinking that if Biden wins he may not run for re-election. So his VP would be the front-runner for the 2024 Democratic nomination. There's also the worry that our next President, whoever he is, will be our oldest President ever. This in the age of COVID-19. A serving President needn't die in office for the VP to have to take the Captain's Chair for a bit. If he goes into hospital for a week or two, with the flu or COVID-19 or a heart procedure like Bernie Sanders had last Fall, the VP would be President for a week or two. Hello, North Korea. Hello, Iran.

Biden is unlikely to run again. If he is smart, he will step down after two years and let his VP take over and be an incumbent in 2024.

 

[Farm Boy]

Hello, North Korea. Hello, Iran.

Given the hyper focus on melanin and genitals...Condi?

 

[EgonSpengler]

Biden is unlikely to run again. If he is smart, he will step down after two years and let his VP take over and be an incumbent in 2024.

Yeah, I'd be surprised if he ran for a 2nd term. I guess I'd also be surprised if he stepped down before his first was over, but the aforementioned health issues that could face someone approaching 80.

Given the hyper focus on melanin and genitals...Condi?

A friend of mine is putting his imaginary money on Susan Rice, but I could certainly imagine a future Republican candidate bringing up Condoleeza Rice or Nikki Haley. I think there are a number of conservatives who have been conspicuous in their absence lately, who don't want to be seen either supporting or criticizing Trump and are just keeping their heads down until 2024. I could see Mitt Romney name-dropping C. Rice and/or Haley on Meet the Press or State of the Union or whatever (that's if they don't run for the nomination themselves).

 

[Kyriakos]

C.Rice? Doesn't your country ever stop electing warmongering lunatics?
Who is next? Dick Cheney? ^_^

 

[Commodore]

C.Rice? Doesn't your country ever stop electing warmongering lunatics?

Our nation was born from and built on war. So no, we are quite fond of our warmongering lunatics thank you very much.

 

[Naskra]

Biden is unlikely to run again.

Biden has always been true to his one ruling political principle - "Joe for President". I can't see him changing.