2020 US Election (Part Two)
- Thread starter Lexicus
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Get a room
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Are the newer polls showing Biden increasing his lead? One would expect this, with all the crap Trump says and does.
amadeus
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The ship has long sailed for some folks. What’chu gon’ do? I’ll have a glass of milk and relax for a while.
Take it easy too, dude!
Trump arrives at his Michigan rally to the sound of Fortunate Son, a song about a draft-dodging millionaires son.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertain...g-in-michigan-rally/ar-BB18VNLg?ocid=msedgdhp
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/entertain...g-in-michigan-rally/ar-BB18VNLg?ocid=msedgdhp
Its specifically about fortunate sons being able to avoid the draft.
Its more specific than just being a general anti-Vietnam song, although that's how it is used in pop culture. The first verse calls out people who are so "patriotic" that they then sacrifice their fellow Americans, rather than themselves in the name of that patriotism, without seeing the irony. The chorus then laments that he can't take advantage of that dodge, because he's not politically well connected. The second verse calls out rich people who gladly suck up all that America has to offer, but then ironically refuse to pay their taxes back into the system they are benefitting from. The chorus then complains that he can't take that kind of advantage of the system because he wasn't born rich. The last verse complains about military worshipers who think everyone should be willing to fight and die in the endless war the country is involved in. The chorus then says that he doesn't agree with that line of thinking because he isn't one of them.
So I'd agree that the song is implicitly criticizing draft-dodging, but the draft dodging thing is more implied than explicitly stated.
It's hard, we can't figure out what the policy is or its goals because his words so often don't match reality. Or, his popularization efforts seem to be lies.
He went full-partisan on Mitch's highjacking of the Supreme Court nomination, and became complicit.
With healthcare, despite promises, he just backed the OG Republican play.
"AGW is a lie" seems to be something he sticks with, and some of the policies make sense from that lens. I thought his efforts to increase LNG sales to Germany made good sense, but was surrounded by so much lying that the good points got missed.
"We're treating China as a competitor" would be coherent if he wasn't lying about tariffs or conducting trade wars with allies at the same time. And his "victories" aren't sold well, either.
Lowering top-tier taxes and then pushing for QE is a policy choice worth discussing, but really wasn't.
I think his criminal justice reform is only talked about in right wing circles.
Timsup2nothin
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No. Biden's lead in the polls has been basically constant. I read somewhere that (probably hyperbolically) his lead is the "most stable in the history of polling." Basically, the people who are for Trump are never going to change based on anything he says or does, and the people who pay attention to what he says and does have been waiting for the chance to vote him out for at least a couple years, so the polls really can't be expected to change at this point.
The important thing is that Biden stays very close to, and above, if possible, 50%. Trump got 46.1% in the last election and its unlikely that he will be able to top that. Right now he is polling at 43%, but I maintain that there is at least a percentage point or two of folks who know full well that they are voting for Trump and are just too ashamed or whatever to admit it.
I'm pretty confident at this point that Biden will get more raw votes than Trump. The real drama that will unfold is where the votes will be and how that will move the Electoral College, coupled with how much of the vote Trump can throw into question over the mail-in voting thing and the delayed results.
Or lie to the pollsters. I've been called once for a poll and I didn't give a single honest answer. I can't imagine I'm the only one who got the bright idea to manipulate the polls like that.
From the Democratic perspective, the optimal, albeit less likely scenario, is Biden gets a couple "must-win" Republican states called for him on election night, like say North Carolina and/or Ohio. If that happens, all the networks except for FOX News will start saying Trump has no chance, regardless of what the counts say on election night... so all Trump's wailing and protesting will be for naught, everyone will be hearing all week that its over and Trump lost. So the end result when all the counting is done is that people will just be hearing what they already know.
The election will be won or lost at the state level. National polls don't matter at all.
Timsup2nothin
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It is very unlikely that any states other than the total blowout states will be legitimately callable on election night. In all probability the only network that is going to make an election night call is Fox, and their "call" will be extensively covering Trump declaring himself the winner without bothering to say that there are no official results to support that.
Timsup2nothin
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This is true, and the lesson has been learned. State level polling has been far more extensive this year than it was in 2016.
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