2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Zardnaar]

If the ocean totally acidifies and some kind of positive feedback loops causes temps to rise 15 degrees its probably fully lights out for us

Will that poison the atmosphere?

Not being able to breathe would be the only Extinction level event I can think of.

 

[stinkubus]

Nah, Biden has way more signs in the upper blue rural corridor than in 2016. I think Iowa might be in play. I'd still lean Trump on calling that state, but ehhh. I wouldn't take any bets. Trump has signs up too. I'll be wrong if I'm wrong, but Biden is a better candidate than Clinton was. By a lot. We'll see how much voting being a dangerous pita holds back the less likely to use their time on the social obligation.

Using my highly scientific straw polling of rural, western PA yard signs I'd say Trump is drawing dead here.

 

[stinkubus]

Will that poison the atmosphere?

Not being able to breathe would be the only Extinction level event I can think of.

We aren't going to be able to sustain agriculture for very much longer at the rate we are going.

 

[Zardnaar]

We aren't going to be able to sustain agriculture for very much longer at the rate we are going.

Ah my country could lose 90% capacity and still feed itself.

Mass starvation is nature saying F you.

 

[AmazonQueen]

Ah my country could lose 90% capacity and still feed itself.

Mass starvation is nature saying F you.

And NZ is probably isolated enough to escape the hordes of refugees from countries where extensive desertification occurs.
Boat people from various islands that disappear due to rising sea levels might reach you.

Europe and the US will face a lot more refugees.

 

[Zardnaar]

And NZ is probably isolated enough to escape the hordes of refugees from countries where extensive desertification occurs.
Boat people from various islands that disappear due to rising sea levels might reach you.

Europe and the US will face a lot more refugees.

We had stuff here survive the dino killer asteroid.

One of them still going now.

 

[KaibaCorp]

@Ajidica

Whether it’s civilians or industry and business polluting, doesn’t matter in the context of the Paris Agreement. Rationalize it however you want, China is by far the worst offender, and their economy is benefitting for it. The US economy has been excellent and we still managed to decrease total carbon emissions. Most countries were failing to meet their goals before the US ever left. China can say whatever they want, I hope they follow through we will see. So again, who cares about the Paris Agreement.


Lifting 1-2 hundred billion dollars worth of sanctions on the biggest funder of terrorism in the world.? What can go wrong? Cue the Curb music.

The deal had a bunch of obviously dumb ideas in it about Iran approving and having time to approve inspections. Seems like a lot of operating room for not abiding to nuclear dearmament. Plus they were still able to make weapons deals with Russia and China. Sanctions are a much more powerful deterrent for a violent state like Iran instead of some flimsy “deal”.


Soleimani broke international law left and right. He was in Iraq, doing what? Murdering throughout the country and Syria. It was the Obama administration who (rightfully so) first sanctioned him as a terrorist after they thwarted an attack in DC he plotted and I’m sure the Drone God himself would’ve taken him out too if presented with the opportunity Trump got. No one seemed to care Soleimani was running around unlawfully (he had internationally-imposed traveling bans, seemed effective lol) murdering and plotting. Still no dumpster fire here.

If WHO gets a pass for “screwing up the response to the virus, who didn’t?” then it would seem logical to say Trump does, if one thinks he needs a pass, which I don’t.

I do think you make a good point about NATO being more valuable as a self-distancing body from China (however security is undoubtedly a chief purpose of the alliance), if it actually works that way. Who knows, I certainly don’t. I wouldn’t doubt there are NATO members with deep connections with China (long before Trump). I know Turkey and Russia have been flirting for a while.


Are we seriously mad about less war? The troops in Syria were pulled when Turkey decided to attack. The troops were there to fight the IS not the Turks (a NATO member btw, are we supposed to fight them?)

Alliances in the Middle East get complicated. The less violent and participated-in for the US, the better. Troops are still in eastern Syria where intelligence and training can be conducted.


It’s fine and logical to be cynical about recent Afghanistan and North Korea communications. I get it. The move in Afghanistan is absolutely noteworthy and somewhat historic and any president that is attempting to lower the number of conflicts the nation is involved with gets a thumbs up for me for that.

 

[KaibaCorp]

“As a nation, we began by declaring that 'all men are created equal.' We now practically read it 'all men are created equal, except negroes.' When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”
-Abe, 1855

The bestest part of that quote is that the Know-Nothings mostly become Republicans(and elect him president) within four years.

Lincoln quotes just hit different.

 

[El_Machinae]

There is no good metric by which China is bad on global warming. We know this, because if the Chinese mimic North America's behavior over the last two decades, the world is doomed. Luckily, they already emit less per household and also invest more into the pivot than North Americans do.

There are strong odds that you've known about this problem over your entire adult life, the "poor should remain poor" cannot be the solution when wealthy households are consuming the remaining slack we have in the system.

I can only emphasize again and again that the Chinese are spending a greater portion of their budget on the pivot than Americans are. This is partially due to the fact that there is a very large denier base in the American democracy.

 

[Farm Boy]

Lincoln quotes just hit different.

Best writer of the English language I've found yet.

 

[Ajidica]

@Ajidica

Whether it’s civilians or industry and business polluting, doesn’t matter in the context of the Paris Agreement. Rationalize it however you want, China is by far the worst offender, and their economy is benefitting for it. The US economy has been excellent and we still managed to decrease total carbon emissions. Most countries were failing to meet their goals before the US ever left. China can say whatever they want, I hope they follow through we will see. So again, who cares about the Paris Agreement.

In the future, I would prefer you quote my post instead of @ me. Makes it easier to follow what exactly you are responding to.
With regards to US action, I genuinely don't care what China is doing. We are facing a crisis that threatens to unleash more suffering than both world wars, and here are people saying that Chinese bad action absolves us of any need to act seriously. Although US emissions have been declining slightly, the rate of decrease flatlined after Trump took office and began rolling back most (if not all) Obama-era emission regulations. We are nowhere near meeting out Paris goals, nor are a lot of other countries. But again, given the importance of keeping temperature rise under 2F, what ever happened to the America of "We do things not because they are easy, but because they are hard"?

Lifting 1-2 hundred billion dollars worth of sanctions on the biggest funder of terrorism in the world.? What can go wrong? Cue the Curb music.

The deal had a bunch of obviously dumb ideas in it about Iran approving and having time to approve inspections. Seems like a lot of operating room for not abiding to nuclear dearmament. Plus they were still able to make weapons deals with Russia and China. Sanctions are a much more powerful deterrent for a violent state like Iran instead of some flimsy “deal”.

When the United States imposes sanctions, they are intended to deter a country from a course of action by imposing financial penalties. Indeed, sanctions imposed by the executive branch have to be in direct response to an action under statute. Many of those sanctions were tied to the Iranian nuclear program. Lifting those sanctions as part of the JCPOA, when Iran gave up its military nuclear program subject to IAEA inspection, meant that sanctions related to Iran's nuclear program should be lifted. Many other sanctions tied Iran's other actions, such as their ballistic missile program or sponsor of foreign militants, ensure that many other sanctions remained. Indeed, a massive sticking point in the JCPOA negotiations was how many sanctions should be lifted, with Iran getting grumpy more sanctions weren't being lifted.
The JCPOA was not perfect, but it acknowledged Iran's right as a sovereign country to have a civilian nuclear program while balancing legitimate security concerns. The P5+1 in the JCPOA all noted that the JCPOA was intended to deal solely with Iran's nuclear actions and not other potentially concerning Iranian policy. (Further, focusing on small areas of common ground has been the traditional US approach to foreign issues, in opposition to the Soviet/Russian/European preferences for grand bargains covering an entire region.)
Lastly, as the decade prior to the JCPOA demonstrated, sanctions didn't work. Upon lifting of the JCPOA, US intelligence was certifying to Congress Iran was by and large complying with the JCPOA.

Soleimani broke international law left and right. He was in Iraq, doing what? Murdering throughout the country and Syria. It was the Obama administration who (rightfully so) first sanctioned him as a terrorist after they thwarted an attack in DC he plotted and I’m sure the Drone God himself would’ve taken him out too if presented with the opportunity Trump got. No one seemed to care Soleimani was running around unlawfully (he had internationally-imposed traveling bans, seemed effective lol) murdering and plotting. Still no dumpster fire here.

So, no response to the fact the killing of Soleimani was almost certainly illegal under both US law and international law?
Plus, what if another country were to use the precedent set by the United States here? Suppose Ukraine were to engage in a targeted killing of a uniformed Russian officer in Mink because the Russian officer was involved in organizing hostile actions with Ukrainian rebels against Ukrainian government forces. Is that something we should normalize?
In the fall of 1990, when the United States was openly calling for military action against Iraq, should Iraq have been permitted under international law to assassinate US generals involved in that planning because it posed a direct threat to Iraqi troops?

If WHO gets a pass for “screwing up the response to the virus, who didn’t?” then it would seem logical to say Trump does, if one thinks he needs a pass, which I don’t.

The WHO screwed up its response in the early days. As I've noted to people on and off this forum - you can ask Lexicus - I was moderately positive toward Trump's response toward Covid in the early days as it wasn't clear what else he could do and it apparently took everyone around the world by surprise. Since the early days, Trump's response has been abysmal and more information has come out that the the CDC was subject to political pressure to play down the seriousness of Covid and the White House knew it was very serious back in early/mid February and did nothing.
Regardless, pulling out of the WHO is a blatant loss in American influence. The WHO does a lot of work in developing countries, especially in Africa, where we are losing the influence war to China.

I do think you make a good point about NATO being more valuable as a self-distancing body from China (however security is undoubtedly a chief purpose of the alliance), if it actually works that way. Who knows, I certainly don’t. I wouldn’t doubt there are NATO members with deep connections with China (long before Trump). I know Turkey and Russia have been flirting for a while.

Russia isn't a member of NATO, and the whole reason Turkey hasn't been kicked out of NATO is because being able to kick people out of NATO would make the idea of collective defense farcical. Plus, Turkey has more been flirting with Russia than China.
Though if you are concerned about Chinese influence in NATO, take a look at the UK.

Are we seriously mad about less war? The troops in Syria were pulled when Turkey decided to attack. The troops were there to fight the IS not the Turks (a NATO member btw, are we supposed to fight them?)

Turkish forces went in when American forces left, because Turkey is hostile to anything that might contribute to a Kurdish state or autonomy given their long running fight against Kurdish independence or autonomy in Turkey.
Regardless of whether we should have been fighting alongside the Kurds, the way we treated them was abysmal. They fought and died alongside US forces against ISIS, and then we threw them under the bus. That is going to make any other non-state force very suspicious of working alongside us in the future.

Alliances in the Middle East get complicated. The less violent and participated-in for the US, the better. Troops are still in eastern Syria where intelligence and training can be conducted.

Given we were reinforcing US forces in Syria with armored vehicles and artillery back in September, I think we are doing a little more than intelligence and training.

It’s fine and logical to be cynical about recent Afghanistan and North Korea communications. I get it. The move in Afghanistan is absolutely noteworthy and somewhat historic and any president that is attempting to lower the number of conflicts the nation is involved with gets a thumbs up for me for that.

Remember that nothing has actually happened in Afghanistan. We have a ceasefire, which is good, but it is axiomatic ceasefires are just breathing space for rearmament unless meaningful action is taken. Some sort of unity government, like Zimbabwe-Rhodesia, will certainly be needed. Though that is likely an impossible to get American public backing for without a "Only Nixon can go to China" effect.

In other words, despite some potential in North Korea and Afghanistan, Donald Trump's foreign policy with regards to China and the transatlantic alliance ranges from ineffectual to self defeating.

 

[Drakle]

Not to be outdone by Loeffler boasting the support of an incoming Qanon Congresswomen, Doug Collins boasts the support of Micheal Flynn, who following his incompetent corruption working as an agent of Turkey and the Gulf States, has become a Qanon celebrity.

It's kinda funny how far right they are driving each other. Warnock might have pretty good odds in the runoff with how extreme they are acting, and their extremity, and Georgia's pivotal Senate status driving donations and attention.

In 538, he is up to 53/100 in the deluxe model, and 69/100 in a polls-only mode.

The economist model is a bit less favourable, at only 46%. But still in tossup range.


Also, McConnell looks even more like a ghoul than normal.

https://www.thelist.com/265634/heres-why-everyone-is-talking-about-mitch-mcconnells-hands/

It would be fitting if Mitch ended his 6 year Senate majority by being forced to step down/die and the Democratic Governor of Kentucky then appoints a Democrat to the spot to help unravel the system Mitch created. Not wishing he dies, but it would be poetic.

 

[Sommerswerd]

"Excited" to vote? Are they offering happy endings at the polling spots?

Well that greatly depends on what you mean by "happy" doesn't it? I certainly felt very happy when I mailed my ballot in, not so much (or at all) happy with Biden, as happy to finally be finished with the act of voting Trump out. Like a great weight was lifted off my shoulders.

Avec is a culinary and cultural affectation of France. It grows wild in the Loire Valley and along the Mediterranean. In the old Las Halles it would be free with avec every purchase.

FTFY

It is a feature of their queasine's.

Les poissons, les poissons, hmm, hmm, hmm, haw, haw, haw.

 

[Sommerswerd]

“As a nation, we began by declaring that 'all men are created equal.' We now practically read it 'all men are created equal, except negroes.' When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”
-Abe, 1855 The bestest part of that quote is that the Know-Nothings mostly become Republicans(and elect him president) within four years.

Ah, the... I'm leaving the country if I don't get what I want routine. Never gets old. So Abe's the same as President Ding-Dong?

I think the bestest, most ironic part is that it wouldn't be too long before the Confederates, may they burn in hell, along with their infernal battle flag, would be calling him all kinds of despot practicing it pure, but with that base alloy of hypocrisy.

Intelligence is probably an evolutionary dead end. On a geological timescale, it probably leads to a sudden explosion in the species' population followed by a sudden disappearance.

Or to interstellar travel... which is the only permanent-ish solution to extinction, ultimately... cause no matter how nice we treat the planet... we can't do jack-squat about the star.​

 

[Farm Boy]

I figured the lesson of redemption and unity was stronger than division in this one. The Know-Nothing's chose labor and abolition over Nativism and put Lincoln in play. Have a war? We're still fighting over a rag instead of looking up interesting and forgotten political unity footnotes.

 

[Sommerswerd]

And NZ is probably isolated enough to escape the hordes of refugees from countries where extensive desertification occurs.
Boat people from various islands that disappear due to rising sea levels might reach you.

Europe and the US will face a lot more refugees.

Well if the agriculture gives out we can always switch to cannibalism and see how that plays out. Come one... come all... welcome soylent-gr... er, I mean refugees!

As an aside... If we're going that route I think India should be in charge of cooking... we're gonna need those curries.​

 

[Sommerswerd]

I figured the lesson of redemption and unity was stronger than division in this one. The Know-Nothing's chose labor and abolition over Nativism and put Lincoln in play. Have a war? We're still fighting over a rag instead of looking up interesting and forgotten political unity footnotes.

Just checking... I gotta keep you on your toes

 

[Farm Boy]

Well if the agriculture gives out we can always switch to cannibalism and see how that plays out. Come one... come all... welcome soylent-gr... er, I mean refugees!

As an aside... If we're going that route I think India should be in charge of cooking... we're gonna need those curries.​

Oh man I hope that doesn't get combined. Indian veggies are amazing, but the meats and cheeses...

>.>
<.<
>.>

 

[Sommerswerd]

Oh man I hope that doesn't get combined. Indian veggies are amazing, but the meats and cheeses...

>.>
<.<
>.>

Well usually you want to take a fresh piece of meat, cook it simply, and let the flavor speak for itself... but in the case being discussed... ... I think you're gonna want those spices, and sauces and lots of them

You remember the Island of Albatross story don't you?

 

[Farm Boy]

...if I do, active memory is failing me.

But yar. I'm from non-metro Midwest. Our traditional spices are salt, black pepper, butter, and cheese. Easy on the first two. If I'm masking flavors, I want Chinese spicing, I think. They're probably at least as good as anyone at making you able to pretend you aren't eating something semi-likely to roto-root you. Hispanic would do, too.