2020 US Election (Part Two)

[Sommerswerd]

I for one welcome our new Italian overlords.

Bah... any Caribbean, any South American, Thai, Vietnamese, Indian... all much better choices for our new rulers.

 

[Farm Boy]

Poor French. Not even mentioned.

Vietnamese that I've had has all been pretty good, now that you mention it...

 

[innonimatu]

Hm, any new polls of note?
And any estimate on what percentage (roughly, of course) of the expected voters already voted by mail?

Not many more than in 2016. The difference is only noticeable among the older, 50+ and especially 70+ voters. And the cause is the virus, not any eagerness to participate in the election. Neither candidate will cause any unusual enthusiasm. The younger ones will mostly not vote again. It's looking like a repeat of 2016...

There's no reason for Puerto Rico to not be a state.

There is one simple reason: independence.
DC is constitutionally barred from being a state, I doubt those talking about it take the idea seriously. In fact this looks like an election where the result will be rather irrelevant for internal policy. Foreign policy, that's different.

 

[Farm Boy]

Nah, Biden has way more signs in the upper blue rural corridor than in 2016. I think Iowa might be in play. I'd still lean Trump on calling that state, but ehhh. I wouldn't take any bets. Trump has signs up too. I'll be wrong if I'm wrong, but Biden is a better candidate than Clinton was. By a lot. We'll see how much voting being a dangerous pita holds back the less likely to use their time on the social obligation.

 

[Drakle]

Not many more than in 2016. The difference is only noticeable among the older, 50+ and especially 70+ voters. And the cause is the virus, not any eagerness to participate in the election. Neither candidate will cause any unusual enthusiasm. The younger ones will mostly not vote again. It's looking like a repeat of 2016...

Why would you just go and lie?

There have already been 41.5 million votes cast, and a lot of them are early votes, aka standing in line, not mail-in ballots. That is 30% of 2016 total turnout, and there is still a lot of early votes to go. And it includes a ton of voters who hadn't voted in 2016.

And a few states have already passed 50% of 2016 total turnout.

 

[innonimatu]

I think the election outcome will depend very much on how Trump's (mis)handling of the coronavirus crisis is felt by those older generations. There is evidence that many are worried - the rise in distance voting concentrated in those age groups.

@Farm Boy that area you know as an older or younger population overall?

 

[AdrienIer]

There is one simple reason: independence.
DC is constitutionally barred from being a state, I doubt those talking about it take the idea seriously. In fact this looks like an election where the result will be rather irrelevant for internal policy. Foreign policy, that's different.

Well sure but a ranked choice referendum on independence, status quo or statehood would probably end up in statehood wouldn't it ?

Some parts of DC are barred from being a state, but not most of it.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Poor French. Not even mentioned.

French cuisine is way too pretentious. Its good, sure, but to quote Peter Griffin... "It insists upon itself."

Nah, Biden has way more signs in the upper blue rural corridor than in 2016. I think Iowa might be in play. I'd still lean Trump on calling that state, but ehhh. I wouldn't take any bets. Trump has signs up too. I'll be wrong if I'm wrong, but Biden is a better candidate than Clinton was. By a lot. We'll see how much voting being a dangerous pita holds back the less likely to use their time on the social obligation.

This is a perfect example of what I said earlier. If you personally were declaring voting for Biden, I'd bet the house on Biden winning Iowa, because that would be a strong indicator that Trump had completely hemorrhaged support among a significant portion of a constituency that would ordinarily be a layup for a normal, competent Republican candidate. But the fact that you are still saying "Biden? Nope" tells me Trump still has a glimmer of hope in Iowa, regardless of how its polling.

 

[Farm Boy]

I think the election outcome will depend very much on how Trump's (mis)handling of the coronavirus crisis is felt by those older generations. There is evidence that many are worried - the rise in distance voting concentrated in those age groups.

@Farm Boy that area you know as an older or younger population overall?

They inform me that small towns and the country are old, on average. Our first outbreaks were in the biggest cities. Our COVID numbers rights now are getting driven by small towns, regional cities, and prisons in those places. The medical care downstate isn't big city. I think they're right when they say this is going to hurt pretty bad, right at home, real fast.

Ahhh, but Sommer... they have cheese. Some good stinky ones too!

 

[AdrienIer]

French cuisine is way too pretentious. Its good, sure, but to quote Peter Griffin... "It insists upon itself."

I cannot let this pass

 

[caketastydelish]

I did early voting today and voted for Biden. I'm hardly enthusiastic about the man but we need an administration change.

 

[Farm Boy]

I cannot let this pass

Spoiler :

... I actually agree with Peter Griffin about The Godfather. It's a good flick, very good. But ew.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Spoiler :

... I actually agree with Peter Griffin about The Godfather. It's a good flick, very good. But ew.

Peter said he didn't care for it. So you can't think its good and agree with Peter at the same time... unless you want to tear a hole in the space-time continuum.

I think Braveheart and Titanic fall into that category as well, BTW. I still like them, but...

 

[Farm Boy]

The movie is both good and I loathe it. But it's a movie, I don't need to watch it. It can be good without me.

 

[innonimatu]

Why would you just go and lie?

A pool on excitement shows I've lied about what, exactly? Have you any statistics to report on early votes received by age cohort? Which was the data I specifically talked about? No? Then go look for them because they've been published already. And then tell us whether I've said any lie or not.

Wishful thinking was prevalent among Clinton's fans in 2016. Yes I do see the past repeating itself in several things, that is one.

They inform me that small towns and the country are old, on average. Our first outbreaks were in the biggest cities. Our COVID numbers rights now are getting driven by small towns, regional cities, and prisons in those places. The medical care downstate isn't big city. I think they're right when they say this is going to hurt pretty bad, right at home, real fast.

So it's striking now among the people who mostly voted for Trump. I guess it will be a reminded that he did not do a good job of organizing an effective response, encouraging people to protect themselves, or improving the provision of healthcare. Even if that also depends on states, the federal government has real power and influence and failed or cared little about that.

Well sure but a ranked choice referendum on independence, status quo or statehood would probably end up in statehood wouldn't it ?

I have no idea what is the popular feeling there about it.

 

[Narz]

"Excited" to vote? Are they offering happy endings at the polling spots?

 

[Farm Boy]

Can I reconsider my mail in ballot? Heck, I might be up for a little bit of Chicago. Vote every day from here on til the election.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I did early voting today and voted for Biden. I'm hardly enthusiastic about the man but we need an administration change.

I plan on unenthusiastically voting for Biden as well, in the election I'm most motivated about in my lifetime.

 

[Takhisis]

There's no reason for Puerto Rico to not be a state, but for the other US territories, incorporations into Hawaii (for the pacific territories) and Maryland (which makes a lot more sense geographically than Virginia) for DC is probably a better sell than individual states. You get rid of the taxation without representation problem all at once and make it a lot harder for the GOP and its friends like Manchin to disagree.

Dude, the blacks and injuns and his/herspanics and students and what-not pay taxes and still don't vote.

Not exactly a dumpster fire backing out of this agreement almost none of the world is even abiding by. Not a very effective agreement to care strongly about.

Well, the whole point of the agreements was that the USA was on board, not that the USA would be turning to subsidise the exact opposite of the Paris Accords.

“Turning in your allies” is pretty aggressive. If that’s what asking another party to hold up their end of an agreement is, then Biden will probably be turning on his allies a lot too if he wins.

Just hamfistedly seizing the presidency of the IDB for the US shows how much the US is willing to both injure and insult those who still view themselves as its allies.

 

[Takhisis]

French cuisine is way too pretentious. Its good, sure, but to quote Peter Griffin... "It insists upon itself."

It uses too much avec.