[RD] Abortion, once again

After typing this, I was thinking that this sounds like a classic, conservative-with-a-small-c position. Conservatives ought to be the ones saying, "hang on, this is getting bumpy; we should slow down and figure this out before putting our foot on the gas."

Here's another conservative idea: Unfunded mandate

According to the US Dept. of Agriculture (don't ask me why it was the USDA that undertook this project, but whatever), the projected average cost of raising a child born in 2015 to the age of 17 in the US was $233,610. Adjust for inflation, and maybe aim for the low end of the average... Every pregnant woman who wants an abortion should get either (a) an abortion, or (b) $250,000. Ballpark. I used an online inflation calculator: $233,610 in 2015 is $281,268 in 2022, I just thought an even quarter-million sounded nicer. Some committee can figure out what the final number should be, and since we're talking state laws here, the cost of raising a child surely varies a lot by state. If a given state wants to force women to have children they don't want, they should just go ahead and cough up the money. And it might make more sense to amortize the costs rather than hand out a lump sum upon birth: It would be $16,500 to each woman in 2022, rising with inflation over the 17 years.
Pregnancy/child-rearing as an "unfunded mandate" in states where abortion is banned... The mandatory $250k payout (amortized, adjusted for inflation, etc) to subsidize the state-mandated child was an interesting take...

I thought about it for about a minute before the obvious counterpoint that would be raised occurred to me. If the state has to give the unwilling mother a payout/subsidy, then wouldn't that create the argument that the state is entitled to some sort of oversight to make sure that she is actually the one raising the child rather than say, the grandparents or other relatives? Also, if the state is completely covering the costs, doesn't that create the argument that forcing the father to also pay child support is giving the mother a windfall?

The last argument that would definitely be raised, is that what you are suggesting (entitlement to payout, amortized, adjusted for inflation, etc) sounds a little similar to the "welfare/food-stamps/section 8 housing/medicaid, etc" (in addition to child-support entitlement), that already exists... I'm completely speculating on how close the actual monetary figures are, but you can certainly anticipate that this would be the first argument raised in response to a suggestion of a $250k payout.
 
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Pregnancy/child-rearing as an "unfunded mandate" in states where abortion is banned... The mandatory $250k payout (amortized, adjusted for inflation, etc) to subsidize the state-mandated child was an interesting take...

I thought about it for about a minute before the obvious counterpoint that would be raised occurred to me. If the state has to give the unwilling mother a payout/subsidy, then wouldn't that create the argument that the state is entitled to some sort of oversight to make sure that she is actually the one raising the child rather than say, the grandparents or other relatives? Also, if the state is completely covering the costs, doesn't that create the argument that forcing the father to also pay child support is giving the mother a windfall?

The last argument that would definitely be raised, is that what you are suggesting (entitlement to payout, amortized, adjusted for inflation, etc) sounds a little similar to the "welfare/food-stamps/section 8 housing/medicaid, etc" (in addition to child-support entitlement), that already exists... I'm completely speculating on how close the actual monetary figures are, but you can certainly anticipate that this would be the first argument raised in response to a suggestion of a $250k payout.
Well, it was far from a well-thought-out idea. :lol: It wasn't meant to be an argument for paying money to women who don't want a baby, it was an argument against forcing women to have babies they don't want. I wouldn't want to figure out how to make this idea work, in the real world.

But if we want to explore the idea, just as a thought exercise: The first thing I thought of was, "How would we know which women would have gotten an abortion if they'd been able to?" In practice, you would have to make these payments to every woman who has a baby, whether she would have had one anyway or not. It's essentially a Universal Basic Income for families with children (which might be a good idea in addition to keeping abortion legal, not instead of). Andrew Yang's proposal was $12,000/year to every adult; this would effectively be a variation on that. Another problem: The negative effects of forcing women to have babies they don't want aren't solely financial. There are medical complications short of death: Some percentage of women who get gestational diabetes get Type 2 diabetes, which I think is permanent; a not-insignificant percentage of women develop depression during or after pregnancy. And then there's the disruption of people's lives and plans. There's not really any amount of money that is just compensation for deliberately and capriciously derailing a woman's life. Imagine if the military had a peacetime draft for men, and the term of mandatory service was 17-20 years (although some parents might say parenthood is a lifetime 'hitch', not just until the kids move out).
 
But if we want to explore the idea
My first thought about the idea is that it is subsidising the thing that most people do that has the largest global warming footprint.
 
Well, it was far from a well-thought-out idea. :lol: It wasn't meant to be an argument for paying money to women who don't want a baby, it was an argument against forcing women to have babies they don't want. I wouldn't want to figure out how to make this idea work, in the real world.

But if we want to explore the idea, just as a thought exercise: The first thing I thought of was, "How would we know which women would have gotten an abortion if they'd been able to?" In practice, you would have to make these payments to every woman who has a baby, whether she would have had one anyway or not. It's essentially a Universal Basic Income for families with children (which might be a good idea in addition to keeping abortion legal, not instead of). Andrew Yang's proposal was $12,000/year to every adult; this would effectively be a variation on that. Another problem: The negative effects of forcing women to have babies they don't want aren't solely financial. There are medical complications short of death: Some percentage of women who get gestational diabetes get Type 2 diabetes, which I think is permanent; a not-insignificant percentage of women develop depression during or after pregnancy. And then there's the disruption of people's lives and plans. There's not really any amount of money that is just compensation for deliberately and capriciously derailing a woman's life. Imagine if the military had a peacetime draft for men, and the term of mandatory service was 17-20 years (although some parents might say parenthood is a lifetime 'hitch', not just until the kids move out).
One of the ideas raised in the article the OP linked, was the justification for putting the theoretical rights of the developing fetus over the rights of the woman carrying it. It's difficult to conceptualize an abortion ban without ultimately having to do that, put the fetus' rights over the woman's, so then the justification for that valuation comes into question.
 
One of the ideas raised in the article the OP linked, was the justification for putting the theoretical rights of the developing fetus over the rights of the woman carrying it. It's difficult to conceptualize an abortion ban without ultimately having to do that, put the fetus' rights over the woman's, so then the justification for that valuation comes into question.
Yes, I assume that's why the pro-life side has to peg "personhood" as early as they can, so they can lean on the idea that a fetus is a person. I think they've wised up to the idea that they can't talk openly about a fetus having a soul in the context of abortion policy - or at least, I haven't head that in the conversation lately - so we get things like the Heartbeat Act instead.
 
..."has to" makes no sense.
 
Yes, I assume that's why the pro-life side has to peg "personhood" as early as they can, so they can lean on the idea that a fetus is a person. I think they've wised up to the idea that they can't talk openly about a fetus having a soul in the context of abortion policy - or at least, I haven't head that in the conversation lately - so we get things like the Heartbeat Act instead.
I don't see the concept of a soul being precluded/abandoned. The notion of life beginning at conception and the identical refrain as a slogan is at least partially another way of appealing to the notion of a soul that needs to be preserved/protected from being aborted.

The viewpoint regarding abortion that I think folks are more likely to dance around, be evasive, or otherwise less willing to be upfront about, has more to do with moral judgments on women having sex. That is to say that there is a non-insignificant number of folks who regard unwanted pregnancy as a desirable deterrent against disapproved conduct. Remember the Republican who was on the news quipping that (paraphrasing) the correct way to use a birth-control pill was for girls to put the pill "between their knees" and hold it in place?

EDIT: I looked it up. It was Foster Friess, a major Republican Donor, appearing on the Andrea Mitchell show.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/foster-friess-in-my-day-women-used-bayer-aspirin-for-contraceptives/
 
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That is to say that there is a non-insignificant number of folks who regard unwanted pregnancy as a desirable deterrent against disapproved conduct. Remember the Republican who was on the news quipping that (paraphrasing) the correct way to use a birth-control pill was for girls to put the pill "between their knees" and hold it in place?

Check post #1033 in this very thread!
 
..."has to" makes no sense.
It's because they're trying to avoid coming right out and saying that an adult woman is worth less, ethically, than the potential-baby she's carrying. For a woman who wants to carry the child to term, it doesn't really matter when it becomes a person. But for the purpose of the government telling a woman she can't have an abortion the pro-life side needs the embryo or fetus to have the same ethical value as the woman. Basically, it has to be a baby and not just a potential-baby. And because they want to limit abortions as early in the pregnancy as they can get away with, they need to find a way to label the embryo or fetus a baby as early as possible. Viability isn't enough, that's ~24 weeks. Periviability isn't enough, that's ~22 weeks. The development of the prefrontal cortex isn't enough, that's ~20 weeks. I imagine they'd love to roll it all the way back to conception, if they could, but I think they've figured out that they can't rest their argument on when they think the embryo has a soul. (I haven't heard anyone say that contraception should be outlawed. I suppose I wouldn't be shocked if there are still some out on the fringe who hold that view, but that seems to be far from the mainstream today.)

Anyway, as @Sommerswerd said, in order to place any limit on abortion - whether at viability or at conception, or anywhere in between - we have to regard the needs of the developing embryo or fetus as at least morally equal to the needs of the adult woman carrying it. If there were some way to make the case that a mere potential-baby is the moral equal of an adult woman, maybe the pro-life side would try to make it, but I don't think there is one and I don't think they do either. If you've seen Children of Men, you can imagine a scenario in which the developing fetus has more value than the woman carrying it, regardless of how far along she is. You kind of have to stretch your mind to a literally existential, apocalyptic crisis, though.
 
I imagine they'd love to roll it all the way back to conception, if they could, but I think they've figured out that they can't rest their argument on when they think the embryo has a soul.
That is pretty much what oklahoma has done isn't it? The morning after pill is still legal, but anything else is not.
 
I don't know if "worth more" and "worth less" are really the correct words, because the stakes aren't the same. There are definitely a set of cases where that's the literal decision being made, but these cases are (thankfully) a minority of total abortions. If people are carving a legal moat around those cases, that's one thing. But the legal moat isn't the same as the philosophical moat.

If I were on a road trip to Vegas and discovered that someone had placed a baby in the trunk when it finally woke, then I'd have to listen to it scream until I finished driving to a safe location. The fact that I'd have to change my plans doesn't mean that I am 'worth less' than the fetus because we're not measuring equal things. The baby's life is worth more than my plans, but that's all you could really say.

Also note: people would be remarkably unsympathetic to whatever excuse I gave for when I tossed the screaming irritant onto the desert highway.


This is why I focus so much on the personhood of the early fetus. I acknowledge that the discussion around later timepoints is going to include a heavy component of 'legal moat'.
 
Check post #1033 in this very thread!

Friess can be one of many. Doesn't excuse for being that way anyone being that way.

It's because they're trying to avoid coming right out and saying that an adult woman is worth less, ethically, than the potential-baby she's carrying. For a woman who wants to carry the child to term, it doesn't really matter when it becomes a person. But for the purpose of the government telling a woman she can't have an abortion the pro-life side needs the embryo or fetus to have the same ethical value as the woman. Basically, it has to be a baby and not just a potential-baby. And because they want to limit abortions as early in the pregnancy as they can get away with, they need to find a way to label the embryo or fetus a baby as early as possible. Viability isn't enough, that's ~24 weeks. Periviability isn't enough, that's ~22 weeks. The development of the prefrontal cortex isn't enough, that's ~20 weeks. I imagine they'd love to roll it all the way back to conception, if they could, but I think they've figured out that they can't rest their argument on when they think the embryo has a soul. (I haven't heard anyone say that contraception should be outlawed. I suppose I wouldn't be shocked if there are still some out on the fringe who hold that view, but that seems to be far from the mainstream today.)

Anyway, as @Sommerswerd said, in order to place any limit on abortion - whether at viability or at conception, or anywhere in between - we have to regard the needs of the developing embryo or fetus as at least morally equal to the needs of the adult woman carrying it. If there were some way to make the case that a mere potential-baby is the moral equal of an adult woman, maybe the pro-life side would try to make it, but I don't think there is one and I don't think they do either. If you've seen Children of Men, you can imagine a scenario in which the developing fetus has more value than the woman carrying it, regardless of how far along she is. You kind of have to stretch your mind to a literally existential, apocalyptic crisis, though.

Got one sentence in before the accord broke down.
 
And like all things American, the worst outcomes involved women of color.

again, quoted is objectively false.

we only observe this in particular minority groups, not "women of color" generally. some "women of color" have better outcomes than white women, on average. thus, using "minority group" or "women of color" in a general sense does not predict the results we observe and we should not use that to describe what's happening.

Yeah, there will usually be extra $$$$$ associated with making sure a building is disabled-accessible, so it's best to do it from the get-go, rather than find out later when the building is triumphantly opened to the public and then OOPS! It's discovered that there are segments of the public for whom it is either inaccessible or unsafe.

there are costs associated with everything. people choose whether it's worth paying them vs not. that's up to the shop to decide in this hypothetical, which depends on a number of factors.

don't know what you're on about wrt moving goalposts or w/e. you claimed i'm doing bigoted opinions and other random ad hominems and argued against things i didn't write. don't know what you expect me to say in response other than that doing that is silly.

You've written here a nice summation of why I think intention isn't super-important when looking at policies that have outcomes with racial disparities.

however, neither are the "racial disparities", necessarily. it depends to what extent the policy causes the disparity, rather than produces a result that reflects that they exist without meaningfully altering them. it's not "intention" that matters. what matters is "does this thing actually cause the observed disparity or not". when it's tidal forces, everyone says no. when it's jim crow, everyone says yes (because disparity *was* the policy, directly). usually, it's not that obvious. but you still need something better than picking at random or using explanations that work equally well for jim crow vs tidal forces. those were different things.

It's the pro-life side who want to throw people in jail and file lawsuits against people

throwing in jail, yes. but make no mistake, we'll be seeing plenty of lawsuits of all varieties and varying abuses of judicial power along the way. i'd bet on that.

Also, I'm thinking more about whether I agree that a causal link is strictly necessary to demand more sensible behavior, or if an as-yet-mysterious correlation is enough.

if the correlation is enough by itself, you're stuck concluding the moon is innately racist. i'm not comfortable with that conclusion, and i suspect you're not either. the same rationale doesn't become good/useful/predictive when you pick something other than "moon".

It depends what you mean by testable.

earlier in thread i clarified that i was looking for a mechanistic explanation that at least (in principle) could be tested, even if that test is impractical or difficult to parse out. at least something we can work with.

that serves two purposes: 1) it gives at least some credibility that altering the policy based on the observation is useful and 2) if you can test it even somewhat it will get you closer to directly sourcing which factors most contribute to the observed disparity. by narrowing the possibilities, if nothing else.

If we required an experiment in this case, I would think that supports the pro-choice position

if you are talking about constraining abortion, the burden of evidence is on the "pro-life" position, which seeks to constrain the freedoms of others based on an assertion that is difficult to prove/demonstrate.

if you are talking about claiming abortion policy is "innately racist", then the burden of evidence shifts to providing causal factors that support the assertion, independent of whether such a policy is justifiable generally.

my default position based on what we have in this thread is that the pro-life position has not given useful evidence to support blocking abortion before 3rd trimester (after which abortions are very rare and usually have health reasons anyway), but that we have no evidence to support the the policy itself is racist. just that randomly constraining abortions w/o a sound basis for the cutoff point is bad process/bad for everyone.

So if there's something going on that seems to result in the proposed restrictions being even more onerous for Black and indigenous people

of course something is wrong, that's undeniable. the problem is attributing cause to this particular policy:
  • maternal deaths are a problem regardless of abortion policy
  • maternal deaths demonstrate a similar rate disparity regardless of abortion policy, from what i can tell
  • the solution to higher rate of maternal deaths involves better processes to find and address life-threatening problems before they kill mothers
    • this is being done less reliably for black and native americans. why? answering that lets us actually decrease maternal death rate for these groups. our approach can and should change depending on whether they're visiting hospitals less frequently vs they're further from hospitals vs they have more comorbidities vs other potential causes. this is hard to pin down but if you actually want to get better you need to do it
    • a useful place to start would be to see if this disparity holds consistently across all local regions of the country. because if it does not, you can look at what is being done differently locally.
    • for example, maternal death rate for black americans does not appear to be a significant issue in vermont or delaware, where maternal death rate is close to 0 per 100,000 for the entire states. california has 4 per 100k, while on the opposite end states like louisiana, georgia, and new jersey are all over 38 per 100k. louisiana is more than 10x worse than california in this statistic. these places are clearly doing things differently with very different standards of care.
  • what reasons do we predict for different levels of care for black americans in states like louisiana? i suspect that they're being outright underserved in urban areas that don't have capacity or staff up to standards elsewhere right now as a leading factor, plus that black women are also being hit with disproportionate amounts of the overdosing/violence subset of maternal deaths there. but i might be wrong about that.
This is why I focus so much on the personhood of the early fetus. I acknowledge that the discussion around later timepoints is going to include a heavy component of 'legal moat'.

unless we get new information i don't expect in the near-future, we're stuck guessing a heck of a lot of things before the fetus is viable. i don't like to restrict people's rights, especially fundamental ones, on a guess. that counts for the "maybe child" too, but not as much as for the mother, unless i see evidence otherwise.

what we're stuck with, and probably a big reason this is so contentious, is that we more or less have to pick where to put the legal moat regardless of the fact that doing so requires at least some guesses/assumptions.

the closest thing we have right now is "can it survive without the mother", because at least that's something we can answer with some degree of confidence. you can answer "yes" or "no" or give a probability estimate based on empirical data. it doesn't answer everything, but it's something to work with, and conveniently consistent with a cutoff point nearly everyone (including the mothers) make willingly anyway. we can probably deal with the extremely small subset of 3rd trimester abortions that aren't being done for exceptional reasons like "this will kill the mother" or "the fetus is already dead" or "the fetus will die horribly after being born within 2 years" or similar. they just aren't that common otherwise.
 
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again, quoted is objectively false.

we only observe this in particular minority groups, not "women of color" generally. some "women of color" have better outcomes than white women, on average. thus, using "minority group" or "women of color" in a general sense does not predict the results we observe and we should not use that to describe what's happening.

Very nitpicky.
Technically correct, but ignores the actual point: On average the outcome is worse.
 
earlier in thread i clarified that i was looking for a mechanistic explanation that at least (in principle) could be tested, even if that test is impractical or difficult to parse out. at least something we can work with.

that serves two purposes: 1) it gives at least some credibility that altering the policy based on the observation is useful and 2) if you can test it even somewhat it will get you closer to directly sourcing which factors most contribute to the observed disparity. by narrowing the possibilities, if nothing else.
What does this mean? If one was the dictator of the world and could do randomised controlled testing on cities you could test just about any explanation. None could you practically prove with any hard rigour.
 
Very nitpicky.
Technically correct, but ignores the actual point: On average the outcome is worse.

it's not *that* nitpicky. it rules out some explanations to use the correct representation (that black/native americans specifically have worse outcomes), but does not rule out others.

since knowledge of this constrains anticipation of what we expect to see vs not, it is useful information. for example, it all but rules out net worth/money as a strong predictor for this observed disparity. hispanic and black americans are very close by that metric, yet hispanic americans frequently outperform both black and white americans in maternal death rate. even if we separately care about net worth disparity, we should probably look elsewhere to explain maternal death rates.

None could you practically prove with any hard rigour.

i'm not convinced this is true. especially in the hypothetical you give.
 
i'm not convinced this is true. especially in the hypothetical you give.
What hypothetical? I said you COULD prove most/all if you were dictator of the world, but assumed that is impractical.
 
What hypothetical? I said you COULD prove most/all if you were dictator of the world, but assumed that is impractical.

oh okay. actually that's not true, you can't prove any assertion even with infinite political power (i mean actually prove, not falsely claim and disappear dissenters). the explanation does have to be testable. "something outside the universe caused this to happen" or "god did it" are examples of things that won't work/can't actually be tested. i'm also not sure how one would go about testing whether tidal forces are a functional explanation for racial disparity as an example, if for some reason that society didn't reject it as absurd on its face. dictator blows up the moon as an experiment?

we have demonstrated causal relations with less absolute powers than that many times over. even mucked about through the weeds with much difficulty in some cases, such as some medical treatments/procedures or a distribution of causes from climate change. we have varying degrees of certainty depending on exact action in question, but these are things where we managed to demonstrate some causal relations.

i suspect that if we do this for observed racial disparities (good luck, but hypothetically), we will find some legitimate causal relations and others that are not, with many of the former cases also influencing our observations regarding the latter.

that distinction actually *matters* though, because changing the latter stuff is useless, while changing the former could be massively beneficial (depending on the degree to which it is a cause).
 
there are costs associated with everything. people choose whether it's worth paying them vs not. that's up to the shop to decide in this hypothetical, which depends on a number of factors.
Actually, it isn't anymore, as far as publicly-accessible buildings are concerned. It's legally required for new buildings to ensure that they're accessible.

Of course what the builder considers accessible and what actually is accessible can be insanely different things. But that's a topic for a different thread.
 
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