Alternate History Thread IV: The Sequel

228 C.E.

A Sassanid invasion of the Roman satellite, Armenia, was highly successful, effectively putting the entire nation under Sassanid control.

How? The Armenians by themselves (see Dio Cassius LXXX.3, “Here [Armenia] he suffered a reverse at the hands of the natives, some Medes and the children of Medes, and the children of Artabanus”) utterly routed him when he attacked. And yet here, they also have the support of Rome (at least enough that Rome later recognizes the defeat of Armenia as their own defeat), and yet fail. Edit: If I remember correctly, it took the assasination of the king of Armenia and the resultant chaos for the Sassanids to finally defeat Armenia

229 C.E.

Roman diplomacy with the Sassanids over their invasion of Armenia has achieved its goal: Armenia becomes an official part of the Roman Empire, and the Roman Empire is to pay tribute to the Sassanids.

1. Why would Sassanids give back Armenia after taking it? Herodian VI, 4-6 states that the Sassanid demands during the “negotiations” were that the Romans had to withdraw from all Syria, and from that part of Asia opposite Europe; they were to permit the Sassands to rule as far as Ionia and Caria and to govern all the nations separated by the Aegean Sea and the Propontic Guf “inasmuch as these were the Persians’ by right of inheritance.” Dio Cassius collaborates this as he remarks that Ardashir I wanted to recreate the ancient Persian Empire.

2. Assuming that Rome did pay tribute, the military would not allow it. In a similar situation in the reign of the very same Emperor, Emperor Alexander Severus, when he attempted to pay tribute to the Germans, the military rebelled, killing him, for (to quote Herodian) “in their (the armies’) opinion Alexander showed no honourable intention to persue the war and preferred a life of ease, when he should have marched out to punish the Germans for their previous insolence.”

230 C.E.

This date is most important for what did not happen. The Sassanids did not invade the Roman province of Mesopotamia, instead focusing on expansion through the Arabian Penninsula, waging a successful war on the Lakhmids, and other Arabic nations, and central Asia, where they meet minimal resistance to their expansion efforts.

If the Sassanids had already beat the Romans once, why wouldn’t they try again, especially since they believed that they had historic claims on Roman territories in Asia?
 
How? The Armenians by themselves (see Dio Cassius LXXX.3, “Here [Armenia] he suffered a reverse at the hands of the natives, some Medes and the children of Medes, and the children of Artabanus”) utterly routed him when he attacked. And yet here, they also have the support of Rome (at least enough that Rome later recognizes the defeat of Armenia as their own defeat), and yet fail. Edit: If I remember correctly, it took the assasination of the king of Armenia and the resultant chaos for the Sassanids to finally defeat Armenia

He tried harder, obviously. Just because one lost a war does not mean that a few decisions could not be changed that would reverse the course of the war. Not that I know what these decisions would be...

1. Why would Sassanids give back Armenia after taking it? Herodian VI, 4-6 states that the Sassanid demands during the “negotiations” were that the Romans had to withdraw from all Syria, and from that part of Asia opposite Europe; they were to permit the Sassands to rule as far as Ionia and Caria and to govern all the nations separated by the Aegean Sea and the Propontic Guf “inasmuch as these were the Persians’ by right of inheritance.” Dio Cassius collaborates this as he remarks that Ardashir I wanted to recreate the ancient Persian Empire.

Because this Ardashir is not the historical Ardashir. He has much more sense than the actual Ardashir, and is not going to make unreasonable demands. The general diplomatic agreement was for the return of Armenia, which the Sassanids could not hold, in return for tribute and ignoring Sassanid expansion in other areas.

2. Assuming that Rome did pay tribute, the military would not allow it. In a similar situation in the reign of the very same Emperor, Emperor Alexander Severus, when he attempted to pay tribute to the Germans, the military rebelled, killing him, for (to quote Herodian) “in their (the armies’) opinion Alexander showed no honourable intention to persue the war and preferred a life of ease, when he should have marched out to punish the Germans for their previous insolence.”

Something to research a little better for me, I suppose. Missing things tends to be the greatest hallmark of anything I come up with.

If the Sassanids had already beat the Romans once, why wouldn’t they try again, especially since they believed that they had historic claims on Roman territories in Asia?

Because it is both simpler to expand in other directions, and safer. As I stated in response to NK's projection remark, the military power the Romans could bring to bear against the Sassanids would become greater the further they got into the Empire, making it effectively impossible to make progress after a certain point. Besides which, they would have to leave soldiers behind to quell resistance, further weakening their army. Just because you win in one scenario does not mean you can win in all scenarios.

Hopefully I'm not sounding exceptionally defensive. I really do appreciate the criticism! :goodjob:
 
Hmm, nothing much to add yet, though I'm not sure if Persian expansion into Arabia would have much actual effect on either Islam or Zoroastrianism (something pretty similar to the former might actually easily arise as the ideology of an anti-Persian rebellion, if need be; although the idea of a militantly "nationalistic" Islam variant contained to Arabia is interesting in its own right).

ANYWAY! :p

I was wondering if people would be interested in the following: someone decides a PoD and a year to carry the althist to, and anyone who wanted would make a map based on that PoD, without consulting anyone else participating. Then, at a certain date, we all post maps and compare the results.

Will anyone please step forward with a PoD and a date? I'd do so myself, but it will probably be more entertaining to let someone else do it for a change, and seriously, how hard could it be?
 
Hmm, nothing much to add yet, though I'm not sure if Persian expansion into Arabia would have much actual effect on either Islam or Zoroastrianism (something pretty similar to the former might actually easily arise as the ideology of an anti-Persian rebellion, if need be; although the idea of a militantly "nationalistic" Islam variant contained to Arabia is interesting in its own right).

Well, the Sassanid Empire's official religion was Zoroastrianism, and Ardashir I specifically oriented the Empire around strong support of Zoroastrianism. As such, if it did not fall to Islamic military expansion, it would probably stay Zoroastrian, as would much of the population within its original borders.
 
He tried harder, obviously. Just because one lost a war does not mean that a few decisions could not be changed that would reverse the course of the war. Not that I know what these decisions would be...

I didn't realize that all it took to win wars was to "try harder." :p.


Because this Ardashir is not the historical Ardashir. He has much more sense than the actual Ardashir, and is not going to make unreasonable demands. The general diplomatic agreement was for the return of Armenia, which the Sassanids could not hold, in return for tribute and ignoring Sassanid expansion in other areas.

The Sassanids later held Armenia for 35 years (from 252-287), so they could hold it. More importantly, both the Parthians and Sassanids thought they could hold it. If they didn’t think they could hold it, what would be the point in invading it?

As for Ardashir, that is fine that he is alt-hisorical, but what reasons would he have for being different? You don’t make unreasonable demands just because you wake up one day and feel like it. In this case, Ardashir’s demands were to cement his own domestic position. The best way for a new dynasty to cement its position is to recapture the glory years of the past. What is Ardashir’s reasons for rejecting this common strategy in this history, and what kind of domestic changes will he make to mollify the old guard?


Because it is both simpler to expand in other directions, and safer. As I stated in response to NK's projection remark, the military power the Romans could bring to bear against the Sassanids would become greater the further they got into the Empire, making it effectively impossible to make progress after a certain point. Besides which, they would have to leave soldiers behind to quell resistance, further weakening their army. Just because you win in one scenario does not mean you can win in all scenarios.

But that is thinking as a twenty-first century person, not an ancient Sassanid king. At the time, Rome seemed to be an excellent target, the provinces were rich, the Sassanids had a historic claim to the regions, and the Romans were suffering from widespread mutinies and military disorganization. It is kind of like Hitler and Russia, the ideological enmity was so strong, that it was only a matter of time, Hitler didn’t think “Oh, Russia is so large that I would never effectively control all of it.”


Will anyone please step forward with a PoD and a date? I'd do so myself, but it will probably be more entertaining to let someone else do it for a change, and seriously, how hard could it be?

I'd do it if I knew what people were expecting/wanting. Do people want an obvious one that would require less research (an example off the top of my head, Napolean doesn't sell N.A. territories to US) or a more obscure one that would require research and thought? Do people want a more modern one where the PoD isn't relatively far removed from the map or a more ancient one where there is hundred and hundreds of years between the PoD and the map?

If it was all up to me, I might consider suggesting the PoD being Gustavus Adolphus dying in his Polish war since I have fond memories of arguing with das about that event.
 
Well, the Sassanid Empire's official religion was Zoroastrianism, and Ardashir I specifically oriented the Empire around strong support of Zoroastrianism. As such, if it did not fall to Islamic military expansion, it would probably stay Zoroastrian, as would much of the population within its original borders.

Well, aside from that, obviously. ;)

It is kind of like Hitler and Russia, the ideological enmity was so strong, that it was only a matter of time, Hitler didn’t think “Oh, Russia is so large that I would never effectively control all of it.”

It really had less to do with ideological enmity and more with erratic grand strategy and/or the fact that Hitler (perhaps quite correctly) had judged that it was the easiest large area he could secure for colonisation, frontier action, exiles and all the other fun stuff you could do with an absurdly large area.

That said, the Sassanids, though they had other designs, probably would indeed have preferred to conquer those areas. The returns would have been far greater, and had they actually secured the area it might actually have been easier to defend there (unlike nomadic Arabs, Romans can only attack from the west and the north, going by fairly predictable paths; and the cities are nice and fortified...).

I'd do it if I knew what people were expecting/wanting. Do people want an obvious one that would require less research (an example off the top of my head, Napolean doesn't sell N.A. territories to US) or a more obscure one that would require research and thought?

I'd prefer the latter. Not only is it more interesting that way, but the obvious PoDs are often not quite as good for serious changes as they might seem. In the given example, the Americans could've simply seized Louisiana by force a bit later, and I doubt that the $8 million Napoleon ended up getting had much impact on the war effort (although there probably could have been some other, less obvious repercussions...).

Do people want a more modern one where the PoD isn't relatively far removed from the map or a more ancient one where there is hundred and hundreds of years between the PoD and the map?

Either would be good, actually.
 
I didn't realize that all it took to win wars was to "try harder." .

Well, if I am to understand correctly, the purpose of an alternate history is that different things happened. As such, making the argument that the Kingdom of Armenia won the war in actual history does not, necessarily, apply to an alternate history.

That being said, any battles between Armenia and the Sassanid Empire are poorly documented. This means that it is fairly difficult to point out why they lost, or what they could have done differently to avoid the loss. You will just have to accept that they won for now. Unless you can show me something else. An actual record would be much appreciated!

The Sassanids later held Armenia for 35 years (from 252-287), so they could hold it. More importantly, both the Parthians and Sassani ds thought they could hold it. If they didn’t think they could hold it, what would be the point in invading it?

No, they could hold it for 35 years. There is a difference, and anyone who thought it out properly might see that difference. As for the question of "why invade it," that is answered by a section of your own reply, just below here.

As for Ardashir, that is fine that he is alt-hisorical, but what reasons would he have for being different? You don’t make unreasonable demands just because you wake up one day and feel like it. In this case, Ardashir’s demands were to cement his own domestic position. The best way for a new dynasty to cement its position is to recapture the glory years of the past. What is Ardashir’s reasons for rejecting this common strategy in this history, and what kind of domestic changes will he make to mollify the old guard?

But that is thinking as a twenty-first century person, not an ancient Sassanid king. At the time, Rome seemed to be an excellent target, the provinces were rich, the Sassanids had a historic claim to the regions, and the Romans were suffering from widespread mutinies and military disorganization. It is kind of like Hitler and Russia, the ideological enmity was so strong, that it was only a matter of time, Hitler didn’t think “Oh, Russia is so large that I would never effectively control all of it.”

As you said, the "ideological enmity" and the need for the "new dynasty to cement its position" were the reasons for invading Armenia. It was a satellite of Rome and the Sassanids had historical claims over it; however, it had been shown several times that the Romans would be slow to respond to an invasion of Armenia, and would probably respond first with diplomacy rather than military action.

This was what Ardashir wanted: a quick military victory that would cement his position as the new leader of the Persians. He also did not want to butt heads with the Romans, mostly because he knew it would generally be ineffective. As such, he was hoping for a favorable treaty resulting from his victory in Armenia that would carry his support as long as its effects lasted.

Ardashir is different in this history mostly because he seeks diplomatic and long-term solutions rather than military or short-term ones. He tends to think everything he does through very thoroughly, leading him to make decisions similar to ones that might be done with hind-sight.

Still, I need to check on the validity of Rome paying a paltry tribute to the Sassanids before I move on with this set of events, so keep criticizing, I obviously need more of it. ;)

That said, the Sassanids, though they had other designs, probably would indeed have preferred to conquer those areas. The returns would have been far greater, and had they actually secured the area it might actually have been easier to defend there (unlike nomadic Arabs, Romans can only attack from the west and the north, going by fairly predictable paths; and the cities are nice and fortified...).

And the last part says it all: the cities are nice and fortified. While they may have preferred to conquer those areas because of greater returns, that does not mean they will. It is a risk/benefit analysis, and while the areas might be easier to defend once secured and the return be greater, the risk of not securing those territories is high enough that it is much safer to move in other directions.
 
Will anyone please step forward with a PoD and a date? I'd do so myself, but it will probably be more entertaining to let someone else do it for a change, and seriously, how hard could it be?

It depends if we have to provide a map or not ;)? And what region the PoD would occur in, and the time period (I imagine europe, and later would probably be more popular).

Anyway, here is a subtle one if you want das - 1571 in the Battle of Lepanto, Don Juan manages to stop his underlings from killing, beheading and stringing up Müezzenzade Ali Pasha (which allegedly was greatly damaging to Turkish morale). Thus the turks manage to escape in roughly good order under Uluç Ali Reis and 90 turkish ships survive the battle (3 times as many as the OTL). Thus no crushing victory (though there is a victory), and Turkish naval power is much stronger (particularly as they have a larger core to rebuild around).

And lets have the maps from 1800.

If people want this I could whip up a base map in the next few days...
 
No, they could hold it for 35 years. There is a difference, and anyone who thought it out properly might see that difference. As for the question of "why invade it," that is answered by a section of your own reply, just below here.

35 years is literaly a lifetime for kings. If a territory can be held over multiple rulers, then there is nothing so hard about holding it that it will prevoke a victorious king to give it away.


And the last part says it all: the cities are nice and fortified. While they may have preferred to conquer those areas because of greater returns, that does not mean they will. It is a risk/benefit analysis, and while the areas might be easier to defend once secured and the return be greater, the risk of not securing those territories is high enough that it is much safer to move in other directions.

A conqueror who has overthrown his dynastic lords and has expanded in all directions is unlikely to have a cautious personality.
 
35 years is literaly a lifetime for kings. If a territory can be held over multiple rulers, then there is nothing so hard about holding it that it will prevoke a victorious king to give it away.

I can think of several historical precedents off the top of my head, the first of which would be how the Romans handled the Carthaginians after the first Punic War. Their are many reasons to give away control of a conquered kingdom or allow it to go back to its previous government, generally revolving around the cost of keeping it under control.

For instance, if Ardashir had kept control of the Kingdom of Armenia, its status as a client state of Rome would guarantee war with Rome, and civil unrest in Armenia itself would require him to keep troops stationed there or lose his new territory; he would then have to contend with the Romans, who would move to crush their old enemies, as their is nothing to unite a nation like external invasion by a favored, long-standing enemy.

A conqueror who has overthrown his dynastic lords and has expanded in all directions is unlikely to have a cautious personality.

This is not necessarily true. Besides, I did not say he was cautious, I implied that he thought everything out thoroughly and took risks only to an acceptable degree; you may call that caution, I call it cunning, which is something one would expect of a man who had overthrown his dynastic lords.

As for the expansion, this is both a calculated risk to expand his power and the power of the Sassanids as well as a method of placating those who would believe him weak if he behaved otherwise. By your own admission, the easiest way to unite an empire under a new lord is to expand.
 
Thus no crushing victory (though there is a victory), and Turkish naval power is much stronger (particularly as they have a larger core to rebuild around).
I don't think that changes things. A large Turkish fleet was cruising unmolested in the Ionian Islands the next year, and a huge fleet retook Tunis just three years after the battle anyway. And Tunis was the last real accomplishment of a galley fleet; thereafter they're strategically impotent, and Ottoman naval strength becomes essentially irrelevant. All it does is save the Porte a bit of money, which doesn't really change anything in the long run. Also, I seem to remember that Uluc Reis did get most of his ninety odd out.
 
I don't think that changes things. A large Turkish fleet was cruising unmolested in the Ionian Islands the next year, and a huge fleet retook Tunis just three years after the battle anyway. And Tunis was the last real accomplishment of a galley fleet; thereafter they're strategically impotent, and Ottoman naval strength becomes essentially irrelevant. All it does is save the Porte a bit of money, which doesn't really change anything in the long run. Also, I seem to remember that Uluc Reis did get most of his ninety odd out.

Really? Sources i've read say 30 maximum escaped, plus 1) its more of a relative gain for the ottomans as most of their lost ships OTL were captured by the Christains, making away with more weakens the Christain hand, 2) The rebuilt fleet had much less experience and was much less willing to tangle with its foes.

Anyway the effect is very much for the map-maker to determine; you can think it would have little effect, I can think the lack of the psycological boost to the christains, and the swell of experienced seamen will have longer effects - the Holy league maintained for a few more years, and more powerful Ottoman influence in North Africa? Or does the reduced fleet provide less incentive for the Ottomans to build big captial ships and they get pwned at a later date seeing Venice hold on to Cyprus? We'd probably have quite different maps ;).
 
Really? Sources i've read say 30 maximum escaped
Uluc Reis took thirty with him when he bugged out, true, but I thought that most of the rest of his wing got out in various smaller groups, and so did a few of the galiots. It's been a while, so I'm probably wrong.

I can think the lack of the psycological boost to the christains, and the swell of experienced seamen will have longer effects
Having more seamen doesn't matter because galley fleets were no longer capable of significant strategic action. The Turks can't do anything substantive, and they certainly aren't going to win some sort of Mahanian decisive battle that will turn the Mediterranean into a Turkish lake.

Incidentally, I don't really see that your method helps the Turks get more ships out. If you keep the center fighting longer, Uluc certainly won't leave sooner, and will probably become more heavily engaged, which will get him trapped by Gian Andrea Doria and Bazan, and nobody will get out. Galley fights, once they break in a direction, tend to break hard, and Lepanto was deceptively close-run. I can't think of any way to get more Turks out without turning the outcome entirely. The center can't escape without going through Don Juan, the right can't escape without going through Barbarigo, the left can't get more out without crushing Doria and Bazan, and if anyone pulls up on shore they'll be no match for superior Spanish infantry.

Anyway, from the same period an idea I've been kicking around a bit: Phillip takes Requesens' nuclear option in 1574, and floods Zeeland and Holland. The organized revolt would have ended right then, and once he got things back under control Phillip could have kept the lid on long enough to work on other things, with all sorts of interesting possibilities.
 
It seems unlikely to me that the revolt would have ended with the flooding of Zeeland and Holland. In fact, I can think of very little else that would so utterly unite a population against the Spanish than that; it would remove all internal dissension.

Granted, I know nothing of this plan, having never heard about it until ten minutes ago.
 
If someone provides the base map, I'll do any PoD. The Dachs one sounds cool.

If there is need of another PoD, what about Harrison doesn't listen to Blaine and goes to war with Chile in 1891, successfully?
 
The Romans may well have been of moderately greater power than the Sassinids during their wars (well, except the last war, where it was only Heraclius who saved the Romans)
Disagree, primarily because of pedantry; at the outset of the war, the Romans were much more powerful than Khosrau II's Sassanids, due to the victories of Maurice (who put Khosrau on the throne after all). It was only because of Narses' "revolt" against Phocas that the Sassanids got anywhere, and having basically the entire Army of the Orient stand down sort of prevents the Romans from doing much of anything successful against the Persians. Without that mutiny, the Romans would have easily repulsed the invasion.

...of course, if the Roman Army wasn't in a condition to mutiny, that means that Phocas didn't manage to kill off Maurice, which means that Khosrau doesn't get to invade anyway. :p
It depends if we have to provide a map or not ;)? And what region the PoD would occur in, and the time period (I imagine europe, and later would probably be more popular).
Europe would probably be most popular because people here know more about it, certain forum members who have once looked like clone pilots notwithstanding.
If someone provides the base map, I'll do any PoD. The Dachs one sounds cool.
Huh? I'm writing a TL, not putting up PoDs for consideration. You might be confusing me with das again.

Speaking of that TL, installment 2 was done on Saturday, but unfortunately I had computer problems and have lost the last little bit (the one about China, not that there is much divergence there anyway). I'll try to reconstitute it over the next few days.
 
The Gothic Wars, 553-560.

Following the victories in Mesopotamia and in southern Francia, the Ostrogothic King Athalaric and the Roman Emperor Justinian finally decided to take the plunge and officially reestablish the Western Empire under Gothic rule in 553. Immediately, everything went to pieces all over the "Western Empire". Theudis, in Visigothic Hispania, flatly refused to recognize his former colleague, who had decided to abandon Arianism to make the new Emperor more appealing to the Italian masses. The Vandals, under the extremely anti-Chalcedonian Gelimer stepped up their raids, landing a significant force on Sicily. Francia, under the dual rule of the two Merovingian brothers Childebert and Chlothar, renewed the Aquitanian War, with Chlothar personally leading an army deep into Ostrogothic Burgundy. And finally, all over the Western Empire, Arian Gothic revolts broke out. The Burgundian field army, under the command of Eraric, joined with the Franks and marched south, while in Pannonia, Teia led troops in another revolt and joined with the Gepid King Thurisind to attack Dalmatia and Illyricum.

To oppose this informal coalition, the new Western Emperor had a small core of loyal Goths who had converted with him, the support of the majority of the Italian population, and the support of the Eastern Empire, his ace in the hole. Justinian had already begun to send troops into Italy by the time the series of revolts broke out; Belisarius himself, hero of the Mesopotamian campaign, was in charge of twenty thousand soldiers bound for Sicily, while Narses took charge of the Thracian field army to repel the Gepids and strike at Teia's support base. The Eastern Emperor was extremely interested in turning the Mediterranean once more into a Roman lake, and this entire incident offered an extremely good chance of doing it in a situation where Constantinople was supreme.

In the fall of 553, Belisarius' force made landfall on Sicily at Catania. The people of the island itself were generally supportive of the whole Imperial effort, but the Vandals had already landed a 35,000 strong field army at Panormus on the other side of the island. The Vandal commander, Ammatas, turned the western tip of the island into a fortress and then began to extend his control eastward, seizing Agrigentum and Enna before winter set in and operations were made more difficult. Meanwhile, to the north, Emperor Athalaric's situation had not improved. Before the Alpine passes had frozen up and before he had managed to get troops north to block off the invasion routes, Eraric and Chlothar had made their way through the Maritimes and were besieging Augusta Taurinorum. Athalaric, occupied with crushing pro-Arian Ostrogothic revolts south of the Po, was unable to do much before winter set in. Meanwhile, to the northeast, Teia had crossed through the Aemona Gap and was at Aquileia already. The Gepids, for their part, had seized Sirmium as their own and were sparring inconclusively with Narses in Moesia as reinforcements slowly trickled in to assist the eunuch commander.

In the spring of 554, Belisarius renewed his Sicilian campaign and marched on Enna, capturing it before Ammatas could respond with the main Vandal field army from Panormus. The Roman army went south, to besiege Agrigentum, but the wily imperial commander knew that Ammatas was onto him and deliberately dragged out operations to lure the Vandals in. When Ammatas reached Agrigentum, Belisarius was ready for him, and had largely abandoned the siege works in order to take up a position on the high ground inland from the city. As the Vandals prepared to deploy from marching order, the cavalry was sent out as a screen; after a few devastating Roman volleys, Ammatas' horse were depleted enough for the Roman clibanarii to charge down from the hill and rout them. The Vandal cavalry, fleeing into the midst of their army, confused the infantry and disorganized their formation, at which point they were hit by the Roman cavalry vanguard. Ammatas' army disintegrated, and lost nearly half of its strength on the disastrous retreat from the battlefield. Belisarius was thus free to resume the siege of Agrigentum, which fell to the imperials a few weeks later. Further Sicilian operations in that year were taken up by steady Roman progress and the fall of most of the Vandalic fortresses; by winter, Ammatas was reduced to Panormus and Drepanum, both of which were wracked by pro-Chalcedonian revolts. Unfortunately, the naval campaign had come to naught, and the Romans' navy was unable to prevent the Vandals (who, after all, had superior numbers) from resupplying and reinforcing Ammatas' garrison troops.

In northern Italy, though, the Roman imperials were hit by defeat after defeat. After the fall of Augusta Taurinorum and, a month later, the capital of the north, Mediolanum, Athalaric hurried northwards to perhaps try to prevent the union of Teia and the Franks. Forced to deal with revolting Gothic nobles in Etruria and Umbria, though, the Emperor was unable to keep the rebels apart, and was forced to deal with a united coalition army of nearly fifty thousand soldiers at the Pons Secico. Athalaric, with 25,000 men, tried to force a crossing of the bridge with his personal bodyguard cavalry in the lead, but was turned back with disastrous losses by the steady Frankish infantry and scattered by a cavalry counterattack led by the usurper Teia himself. The Ostrogothic Emperor, wounded but still alive, managed to rally his broken army and withdraw south in fairly good order but with almost no troops left. An abortive attempt to hold the Apennine passes against the rebels failed when the outnumbered imperials were unable to hold all of the passes and were nearly surrounded by enemy soldiers filtering through the rest of the mountains; Etruria was nearly lost by the end of the year, though the Emperor was able to fortify Arretium and prevent the loss of much of the south. To the west, the Franks were able to drive the last Ostrogothic garrisons out of Septimania and the Province, securing their rear. Fortunately for the imperial forces, Moesia turned out not to be a total loss; King Thurisind walked straight into a massive ambush at Naissus, where he lost much of his cavalry in a desperate attempt to hold off Narses' advancing troops. An attempt to withdraw northwards to the safety of Sirmium turned into a rout, where most of the Gepid army was wiped out. King Thurisind managed to hold onto Sirmium, but elsewhere in Moesia, the Gepids had been smashed. Narses now turned to a siege of Sirmium, to secure his flank for a projected invasion of Illyricum and Pannonia.

To sum up, during 554 the Roman imperials had managed to gain in most pf the peripheral theaters somewhat, but in the main, most critical theater, Italy, they had suffered a disastrous defeat and were in danger of losing Rome itself. Justinian, to rescue the situation, had John (who was referred to by some as "the Sanguinary") relieve Belisarius in Sicily, which was beginning to quiet down, while Belisarius himself took charge of a third field army, much of which was taken from the Mesopotamian army, that was already massing at Dyrrhachium, to sail across the Straits of Hydruntum and land in southern Italy to bolster Emperor Athalaric. Meanwhile, Narses was reinforced as well, and peace feelers were sent out to the Vandals to try to get them to withdraw from Sicily without further fighting. (These came to nothing.)

The Frankish and rebel army renewed its push not long after the snow melted, bypassing Arretium entirely by moving through the passes at Clusium and using Eraric's army to mask Athalaric's troops. The Emperor pulled most of his tiny army out of that city, recrossed the Apennines, and force-marched down the road to Picenum, where he tried to recross the mountains to hopefully save Rome in time. He was assisted in this delaying action by anti-Arian riots and revolts as the rebel army moved closer to Rome, where the Pope was personally organizing the city's defense against the "heathen" troops. Teia and Chlothar were forced to slow down to deal with the uprisings, and this allowed Athalaric to make his way into Rome with 3,000 men, enough to organize a defense of the city. With ten times the imperial troops, the rebels and Franks began to organize a siege of the city, but they didn't have enough men to mount a blockade. With the assistance of citizen volunteers, the Emperor was able to drive back the first two attempts on the wall and even improve the Eternal City's defenses, all the while securing supplies from the countryside and calling for aid from the Eastern Emperor. Belisarius, in the meantime, was just beginning to make his way into Tarentum with twenty-five thousand men, and upon landing immediately began a forced march northwards. Realizing their peril, the Gothic rebels and the Franks mounted a third attempt on the walls, and managed to break in, engaging in a desperate struggle just inside the Flaminian Gate. Finally, coalition numbers prevailed, and the allies managed to swarm in. Athalaric with a thousand troops broke out of the city and escaped just ahead of the Franks, but Pope Vigilius wasn't so lucky, and despite Chlothar's halfhearted efforts to prevent disorder was killed in the ensuing seven day sack. The last semblance of order in Rome was destroyed as looting began, especially by the Ostrogothic rebels; eventually, the Franks joined in as well despite their adherence to Chalcedonianism. After the first day, most of the city was on fire, though Chlothar himself managed to save the Lateran and most of the imperial residences. After a week, the Franks and Goths finally stopped the pillage and began to resume normal military activity, they began to rebuild the walls in preparation for the imminent Roman counterattack, and also started to call in the detachments scattered along the road through Etruria from the north. By then, though, they were too late, for the day after the siege had begun, Belisarius and Athalaric arrived, with thirty thousand soldiers. The second battle for Rome began the very next day.

Belisarius still didn't have enough men to mount a blockade, and an assault was still risky due to the close parity of the opposing sides. On the other hand, the Franks and Goths were deep in a peninsula, far from most reinforcements, surrounded (and in control of) a large group of anti-Arian partisans, and in control of a city whose defenses had been badly undermined and whose supplies had been exhausted or destroyed by the events of the past month. Chlothar decided stop even trying to hold Latium; the way to do so was either to win a battle against a numerically superior (if barely so) Belisarius or to repel all Roman assaults. Neither of these seemed terribly likely, so the Franks dismantled what defenses were left to the Eternal City, gathered up all the loot they could get and moved back north, adding the detachments left to crush uprisings in Etruria to the main force as they went. Teia, attempting to persuade his erstwhile Frankish allies to try to hold on to Rome and crush the usurper once and for all, was rebuffed. After a exchange that nearly came to blows, the two armies parted ways: the Franks left to secure Burgundy and the Province, while Teia and Eraric moved back south into the valley at Clusium to establish a blocking position. To the south, Belisarius spent the remainder of the summer crushing the last vestiges of Ostrogothic nobel rebellion (those that didn't flee to fight with Teia and Eraric), and then moved back north into Etruria in late August. By feinting towards Clusium with his cavalry, under Bessas, and then switching the main direction of his army around the eastern side of Lake Trasimene, making an end run around the crest of the Apennines before recrossing at Faesulae and moving south again. The Ostrogoths nearly were forced to confront the Roman army as Teia attempted to flee the jaws of Belisarius' envelopment, but after a bit of subterfuge and significant confusion during a brief nighttime confrontation, the Goths got away across the Apennines and fled towards Ravenna, their key bastion south of the Po (which had been yielded to them nearly without a fight by the imperial troops earlier in the year). Further maneuvering by the Romans around Mutina failed to cut Teia's lines to Pannonia and the north, due primarily to vigorous action and sallying from the Ravenna citadel. In the end, Belisarius wintered at Arretium with the Eastern troops, while the Western Emperor rushed back to Rome with a rebuilt and somewhat ramshackle Western Imperial force of 10,000 men to keep order and look good.

In Sicily, Belisarius' absence had proved disastrous. John's troops, so close to victory, were almost immediately wrong-footed at the siege of Panormus, when Ammatas' reinforced army sallied and attacked the Roman besieging army. John, having failed to construct lines of circumvallation, was routed, his troops fleeing in disarray back towards Enna. Meanwhile, on the southern coast, a second army under the command of Tzazo reached Agrigentum, dispersed the small Roman garrison, and advanced purposefully on Enna in conjunction with Ammatas. John elected to abandon Enna without a fight, instead moving back to Catania. During the autumn, some minor counteroffensives prevented the Romans from losing the eastern coast of Sicily, but Tzazo and Ammatas, with their numerical superiority, had ground down the remaining Roman garrisons on the island and confined them to Syracuse, Catania, and Messana. Upon word of this, the praetorian prefect Liberius was ordered to replace John, although he brought scanty reinforcements and was unable to improve the imperial position much by the end of the year.

In the Balkans, Narses had renewed his offensive as soon as he could, pressing the Gepids hard inside the fortifications of Sirmium. Thurisind commanded the besieged Gepid army with energy, repelling several assaults through the spring months, but by June was forced to stage a fighting retreat, breaking out across the river with several thousand of his tribesmen. Narses, after ensuring that the imperial navy could prevent the Gepids from recrossing, then moved into Illyricum. After a crossing of the Naro, which was hardly contested by the Goths left in the province (under the command of Ulithus), Narses reached Spalatum and besieged it for two weeks, capturing it with relatively little effort. With help from the navy, he advanced further along the Dalmatian coast, destroying the few rebel garrisons south of the Savus and finally reaching Tarsaricum as winter set in.

Neither side had achieved much in 555; the Romans' brief loss of Rome had somewhat decreased the enthusiasm of the general populace for the war, but war weariness was not even close to setting in, while the Ostrogothic rebels still had many cards left to play. The tables had completely turned in Sicily while in Italy itself the imperials had lost a lot of ground, not all of which was recovered, and in Illyricum the Gepids had been shunted aside and the Goths had lost a significant chunk of territory. Justinian planned, for the upcoming year, to have Belisarius continue his push through Italy and link up with Narses in the Gap of Aemona, then advance on Pannonia and smash the last vestiges of Ostrogothic revolters. In Sicily, all Liberius had to do was hold on to what he currently had and prevent the Vandals from making that secondary theater any more of a drain on imperial resources. Meanwhile, Athalaric, who had been slowly rebuilding his army after the disaster at the Secican Bridge, would try to recover the remainder of northern Italy and cross the Alps to repel the Franks and Visigoths in the Province. The Coalition, with much less central planning, thus had divergent plans. Visigothic plans were further confused by plots to murder Theudis, which had thus been defeated but which were coming closer and closer to the mark. The Merovingians merely wished to stay in control of their new Mediterranean coastline, consolidating their gains there. Teia and his underlings wanted to keep the Romans on the wrong side of the Po if possible, but recognized that Narses' advance had greatly endangered his rear and thus resolved to fight a campaign on interior lines if necessary. The Gepids were to attempt to recross the Danuvius in the face of the imperial navy, and the Vandals needed to clear Sicily in order to deliver the knockout blow against the Romans in southern Italy and the Balkans. Teia and his rebels recognized that the prospects for victory were rapidly dwindling, but also knew that Athalaric's hold on Italy, let alone the "Western Roman Empire", was extremely tenuous, and would probably shatter if pushed hard enough.

Teia managed to steal a march on Belisarius when he broke out of Ravenna and drove north to cross the Po; the somewhat disadvantageous camp that the imperials were using at Arretium prevented them from effectively interfering with the crossing. By the time the imperial troops reached the Hostilia crossing, the bridge had been destroyed and Belisarius was forced to search for an alternative crossing. Teia, in the meantime, secure in the knowledge that the Romans wouldn't be attacking anytime soon, left Eraric north of the Po with a detachment of troops hopefully sufficient to hold the bridges and with the majority of his army drove towards eastern Venetia, where Narses was in the middle of a siege of Tergeste, aided by the navy. Teia managed to reach the besieging lines before the city fell and organized a coordinated sally while attacking the Romans' contravallation lines to try to break through and disperse Narses' troops. The Romans were somewhat prepared for this, but Narses was outnumbered nearly two-to-one. Despite responding with skill to the sally from Tergeste itself, which was dispersed rather handily, Teia's army made a much bigger dent in the Roman army, continuing to drag out the fight as the day wore on. Eventually, Narses was forced to attempt to withdraw, moving back into Istria and leaving about a fifth of his army dead on the battlefield. Teia, who had suffered approximately equal losses, was too tired and too busy to pursue; instead, he force-marched back west to the Po Valley.

Even further to the west, Athalaric with twenty thousand men marched into Liguria and scattered the few Ostrogothic garrisons that had been placed there. At Placentia, his troops crossed the Po and then reached Mediolanum, where a Frankish outpost had been established under the control of their vassals the Alamanni. Magnachar, the Alamannic general in charge, marched out much of the garrison to Laus Pompeia, where Athalaric led a decisive flanking charge in a relatively straightforward battle. The Alamanni were scattered, and Athalaric seized Mediolanum and Augusta Taurinorum relatively easily. After spending the summer months consolidating control of the Cisalpina, Athalaric was unable to make his way through the passes through the Maritime Alps, instead continuing to build up his forces and making a trip back south to Rome to make sure that the populace didn't get restive. Events were more interesting in Venetia. Belisarius had managed to cross the Po at the same place as had Athalaric, and he moved east from there rapidly. While Teia and Narses were slugging it out at Tergeste, Belisarius' army broke the defenses of Mantua and forced a crossing of the Mincius. By the time Teia was able to turn his army around, the Romans were in Patavium and continuing east. At Opitergium, the numerically superior but exhausted Goths were sent into battle against the Romans practically from marching order, forced to engage separate wings of a converging Roman army. Belisarius nearly managed to envelop the Gothic army, but Teia's cavalry staged a fighting retreat, holding off the jaws of the envelopment long enough for the rebels to escape to Aquileia. Refusing to launch a pursuit, Belisarius instead fortified Patavium and then concentrated on consolidation in the Po Valley for the remainder of the year.

Meanwhile, Justinian's diplomacy was bringing new groups into the fight. North of Pannonia and the Gepids, the tribe of the Lombards was assiduously courted by both sides for the first years of the conflict. In 556 King Audoin finally made his decision, coming down on the side of the clearly ascendant (and much richer) Romans. In late summer his troops launched an assault on the Gepid Kingdom, already seriously damaged by the failed expedition to Sirmium and Moesia. King Thurisind, rallying what troops he had left to try to recross the Danuvius, was suddenly set upon from the rear and disastrously defeated. Gepid power was utterly smashed, and the Lombards seized Dacia as Justinian's foederati. A secondary attack on Aquincum was repulsed, but only barely, a discouraging thought given that that had only been an extemporized force, and a weak one at that.

Finally, things were going poorly for the imperials on Sicily. The Vandals were able to lure Liberius out of his cantonments and deal a disastrous defeat to the Roman army at Morgantina in September after months of skirmishing and positional warfare. Liberius' death during the rout further disorganized the Romans and allowed Syracuse and Catania to fall into Vandalic hands. As the sad remnants of the Roman army cowered in Messana, a cash-strapped Justinian, seriously weakened on two fronts, decided to concentrate on the Balkans and only provide perfunctory reinforcements to the Sicilian front, a few thousand men under the command of his nephew Germanus.

All in all, 556 had been a somewhat disappointing year for both sides yet again, with the accompanying slow gains; the Po Valley had fallen, and the Gepids were basically gone, but the Sicilian front was still weakening, as was Narses in Illyricum. The Roman Empires clearly had the upper hand, but the Gothic rebels obstinately refused to die, and their Vandal allies were still going strong. Athalaric and Justinian were both running short of resources, and needed to finish the war quickly. For his own part, Teia was forced to renew his interior-lines strategy that had sort of worked last year, and to continue harassing his Frankish and Visigothic nominal allies for aid.

In the end, though, 557 ended up being sort of anticlimactic. Teia fought a highly respectable campaign against the encircling Romans and Lombards, but with each victory he secured over Audoin, his troop strength dropped, and against Belisarius he could only draw. An attempt to hold the Aemona Gap failed when he was drawn away to protect Aquincum from the Lombards, and the Romans spilled through. Teia was finally defeated for good at the Battle of Sabaria, where Belisarius and Narses, with united forces, basically overran and enveloped the vastly outnumbered rebels. Teia managed to escape and tried to raise a new army, but was caught by a group of Lombards and executed. With Pannonia cleared, the other areas of fighting slowly began to die down. The Vandals failed to break the defenses of Messana in Sicily, despite vigorous coordinated land and sea assaults on the walls. Germanus was even reinforced somewhat after Belisarius' and Narses' victory. Athalaric, in the Alps, waited to receive reinforcements from the victorious Eastern Roman armies in Pannonia, and when he did (in the form of Bessas and about fifteen thousand men) he forced the Maritime Alps against some perfunctory Frankish resistance and spilled onto the Provincial coast. Childebert led a numerically superior army against him after most of Narbonensis fell into Roman hands, but on the way he inconveniently died, and his lieutenants were insufficient to provide victory at the Battle of Valentia three days later, where Bessas' cavalry provided a critical advantage, first seizing a hill overlooking the battlefield and then charging at exactly the right moment to not only help win the battle but also to catch the attention of future playwrights who would exaggerate that very action.

The rest of the war proved to be an uninspiring affair. In Francia, Athalaric slowly retook the Province from the Visigoths and Franks, both of whom had lost the stomach for further war, mostly because the Visigoths never got much out of it anyway and the Franks had just lost a major field army and were unable after three years of trying to break out of Burgundy. Theudis' assassination in 559 provided the impetus for peace; the following year the Franks were recognized in their control of Burgundy, and Chlothar as sole king of the Franks, while the new Visigothic King, Athanagild, was denied any gains, but got recognition from the Romans (and began to plan for a further scheme in conjunction with Athalaric). In Sicily, the grinding war slowly began to turn more in the Roman favor after Germanus was reinforced, but Tzazo managed to keep control of most of the island anyway, despite losing Catania. In the peace agreement (or series thereof, as the various "treaties" were agreed to only bilaterally), the Western Roman Empire was confirmed in its control of Messana, Catania, and received Syracuse back, but most of the rest of the island's coasts and the hinterland went to the Vandals, who had a major staging point for further raids to threaten Italy. In Pannonia, the Lombards basically got everything on the north side of the Danuvius, while the Western Romans kept Pannonia, and the Eastern Romans got Sirmium and a little extra territory in Illyricum - a pittance for their troubles, or so it would seem at first, but for the fact that they now had an ally to their west that had survived the worst that rebels, Franks, Visigoths, Vandals, and Gepids could throw at it, plus the kitchen sink. And of course, western Europe now had to deal with a nascent powerhouse in the Italian peninsula. The Roman world had been restored, to some extent, and the Mediterranean was in an interesting fix...
 
Keep What You Steal, 549-615.

But, of course, we wouldn't be anywhere without examining the events in Persia after the disaster of the Great Persian War. Khosrau Anushirvan had suffered a major defeat here, clearly; losing all of Mesopotamia to the Romans turned the Sassanid dynasty from a Great Power to a rump state in the course of less than a decade. Almost immediately after returning to the new capital, Aspandana (Tauris was larger, but was also much too close to the currently-invincible Romans; Aspandana was at least a military stronghold), Khosrau had to crush two insurrections from inside his court. More dangerous, though, was the open revolt of the dehgans of Xurasan, who in confederation under the overall leadership of the Suren family declared independence. Khosrau dispatched Chorianes to crush the insurrection in 551, but the general suffered a major setback when the Suren called in the Hephthalite Huns to assist them. The Huns were too weak to work by themselves and too weak to subject the Xurasanian rebels to their control, but strong enough to repel the Sassanids, and that's what they did at Abarshahr, dealing Chorianes sufficient casualties to force the royal troops to withdraw, though not enough to destroy the army or even weaken it to any real extent.

This soon became a signal for a greater insurrection all across Persia. Chorianes decided to go rogue and took Khosrau's army to personally carve out a kingdom in Atropatene, where he received clandestine help from the Lazicans and Iberians, who were interested in destabilizing Persia as much as possible. Meanwhile, the Xurasanian revolt grew in scope, managing to sweep into Drangiana and compelling further revolts all along the frontier. After five years of ferocious fighting against these usurpers, Khosrau was still in control of Aspandana and Media (including southern Atropatene), but very little else. The Axumite Emperor Abraha, partly worried about his concessions in southern Persia and partly to carve out a greater sphere of influence, landed troops at Hormirzad under his personal command, and by year's end had seized a large chunk of Carmania and Persis. Chorianes' miniature kingdom was surviving well despite assaults by Khosrau and the Mihran family, which had control of Hyrcania and Patishkhwagar. By far, though, the most powerful of the various blocs was the Xurasanian faction, which with the help of the Hephthalites controlled nearly all of the eastern half of the former Sassanid Empire, centered around Merv.

Foreign interventions began to pick up in 555. Khosrau attempted to get Abraha to aid him in exchange for major concessions along the coast, but the Axumite Emperor wasn't really interested in that, instead beginning to formulate plans for a south Persian colony to take advantage of the trade now flowing from Roman Charax. So the Axumite forces in Carmania were boosted by another few thousand marines, and continued to put pressure on Khosrau from the south. The Great King was increasingly squished between them and Chorianes from the north; his extremely low manpower reserves, not to mention the copious amounts of gold he had in his stash at Aspandana, were dwindling more and more as the years dragged on. Pretty much all of the sides were exhausted by the brutal positional fighting, along with extremely destructive suicide charges that, if nothing else, at least eliminated some of the feudal dehgan lords. In 557 Khosrau, nearly on the ropes, got lucky when he persuaded Justinian, who needed to worry significantly less than previously about the Western situation, to put pressure on his Lazic and Iberian vassals to end their support for Chorianes. He appealed to Justinian's need for a stable, but not particularly strong state to the east, which would go away if the Hephthalites and the feudal Xurasanians took over. The Roman Emperor acquiesced, and Khosrau was able to, by focusing on Atropatene, smash Chorianes in a series of systematic attacks and force his former general to come to terms by winter.

The next few years saw a surprising royal resurgence; in 559 Khosrau and Chorianes beat back the Xurasanians from a major attack on Aspandana, saving the critical gold supply. Next year, the Mihrans accepted Khosrau's suzerainty in exchange for significant autonomy, and joined in a concerted attack on Abarshahr, besieging that critical stronghold and finally capturing it in 562. Meanwhile, to the south, after several failed attacks, Khosrau finally accepted an Axumite colony around Hormirzad and including a significant portion of Persis, seeing as a large proportion of the population there were Axumite or Arabian merchants anyway. In Xurasan, the Suren were steadily losing manpower; devastating losses to their dehgan manpower base had been dealt at disastrous battles like Rhagae (558), Carmania (561), and then at the siege of Abarshahr, attacking the admittedly primitive royal lines of contravallation and suffering tremendous casualties to the still-loyal daylami spearmen. The Hephthalites took an increasingly greater role in the fighting, and as further losses were suffered they, too, began to become less interested in conquest and more so in saving their skins. However, their Khagan remained in the fight, and this had a disastrous effect in 563 when the main royal Sassanid army caught up with most of the Hephthalites at Bamiyan and annihilated them after the daylami turned back - nay, smashed - a desperate cavalry charge to try to keep the Sassanid wings from closing on the rear of the escaping Huns. In any event, the revolt was crushed by 566, with the Hephthalites swearing fealty to the Great King as foederati and the various feudals generally crushed. It was the dawn of a new era; he of the Immortal Soul had a chance to strengthen royal power, with the feudals in disarray or slaughtered by their own tactical stupidity. During the next few years, Khosrau attempted to centralize somewhat, which was made sort of difficult by the fact that he himself was quite weak too.

Those plans would be ruined by a disaster from the north. During the 550s the Rouran Khanate, the hegemon state of the Central Asian steppes, came under savage attack from their former vassals and slaves, who would be known as the Gokturks. Under the chief Bumin Khan, the Gokturks began their revolt in the iron mines of the Altai Mountains and after five years of constant Rouran defeats managed to take over the old empire with the assistance of the Western Wei. The Rouran were smashed; most of them were forced south, towards a land of opportunity - weakened Persia. Under the great khagan Bayan, the Rouran - now dubbed the "Avars" - began to infiltrate Xurasan by 570; in 572 they launched an all out attack. The Sassanid general Tamkhosrau led an army of Hephthalites and royal troops to destroy the invaders but was completely overwhelmed at Margiana. The Avars swept through regions just being restored from the ravages of the fifteen-year civil war; all Sassanid attempts at beating them back were smashed utterly. Khosrau, having died of a heart attack upon hearing the news of Margiana, was succeeded by Hormizd IV, who made a last stand at Aspandana itself in 575, but of course the last brave attempt failed, and the Sassanid army was cut down to a man by overwhelming force. Bayan quickly claimed the title of Shahanshah and established a new Avar Persian empire.

Well, that was certainly a disaster, wasn't it? The Eastern Roman Emperor, Justin II, was naturally extremely worried about the whole thing; the old situation of weakened, Sassanid Persia was replaced by a strong, barbarian-dominated Avar one. Axum was worried as well; Emperor Abraha, even in his twilight years, believed that the Hormirzad colony and perhaps all of the Mare Persicum trade were in serious danger from the Avars, who were already infringing on the Axumite colony. And, of course, the Caucasian kingdoms were terrified, clinging closer to the Romans for fear of Avar conquest.

Of course, examining the situation before the Avars did the inevitable requires a discussion of Eastern Rome in the years since the conclusion of the Gothic conflict. Justinian, at the finish of that particular affair, had seen his star rise meteorically. Rome was threatened by no one; the Western Empire was rebuilding behind the wall of the Alps and the bristling fortifications of Sicily, the impact of barbarian invasions was largely absorbed by the Lombards (whose king Alboin brilliantly repelled a major barbarian and Slavic invasion during the years of the 560s, briefly halting the onslaught of the Bulgars), Persia was in utter chaos, and the Ghassanid Kingdom under Al-Harith ibn Jabalah was expanding throughout inner Arabia, seizing the old Lakhmid territory and scattering their former rivals with ease, while making contact with Axumite expansion in the Hejaz to the south. The Emperor spent much of his later reign somewhat paranoid, afraid of enemies from multiple directions, a danger, of course, of being at the top, but fortunately did not have to persist long in this state, dying in 563 to be followed in a few months by his wife Theodora. Justinian's successor ended up being his nephew Germanus, who took the regnal name Justin II; Germanus, a practiced military man, quickly defeated another Bulgar incursion north of the Danuvius and generally spent more money on the army. Mesopotamian integration continued apace, and aid was lent to the vital ally in the Western Empire, now under Emperor Valentinian IV (as Athalaric had named his son). However, Justin II wasn't so all-around great as his predecessor had been. Justinian had had to spend much of Anastasius' surplus on his Persian and Italian campaigns, and by the time he died the treasury had dwindled significantly. Justin II, nearly as paranoid as Justinian had been and more of a military man already, massively overspent on the navy and army, beefing up defenses in Mesopotamia and creating a large battle fleet to combat the Vandal one. By 570 the state was almost flat broke, and the Senate (powerless as it was) began to clamor for fiscal responsibility. Justin, infuriated that anyone dare question his imperial prerogative, had the ranks of the Senate thinned somewhat - by violent means, of course - and thus terrified everyone into doing as they were told. Further fears of plots intensified as the years went on, and by 575 Justin was probably the most hated man in the Empire, with scant few on whom to rely and slowly descending into insanity into the bargain. The Empire would have made a dandy target in these years for the Avars, had they not been absorbed in making sure of their control of Persia; stimulated by this threat, an army commander named Tiberius Constantine, a friend of Justin II's brother, who was actually named Justin, organized a conspiracy in 578 and had the Emperor deposed in favor of his brother. Justin III quickly had the former Emperor blinded and sent off to a fortress to linger in the dungeons for the next year, until he was secretly assassinated.

Justin III and Tiberius Constantine formed a duumvirate early on and had some success shoring up the Lombards in Dacia. In 581, though, the old Lombard king Alboin was defeated and killed by a Bulgar army under the command of the chieftain Zabergan. The Lombards' short-lived empire virtually disintegrated within a few months, with a weakened nucleus moving west to smash into eastern Francia, causing the Merovingian monarch Sigebert I no small amount of pain and suffering, as will be detailed later. Other elements of the Lombard tribes fled south, into Pannonia and Moesia, and were generally either defeated by the Roman imperial troops or resettled along the Danuvius to help protect the Empire. In any event, this Bulgar threat grew larger as it reached Roman borders on the Danuvius; with no shield left, the imperials were forced to deal with the problem on their own. Tiberius Constantine and his protege, a promising young general named Priscus crossed the Danuvius several times and dealt serious blows to the Bulgars in several victorious battles during the early 580s, preventing Zabergan and his successor, Organa, from mounting an attack on the Empire. In the meantime, though, they were forced to deal with dwindling amounts of men as Justin III, wisened by his predecessor's fall, began to be much more of a tightwad, decreasing the size of the army and navy to build up a viable treasury once more. He was also unable to heed Juvenal's famous advice about "bread and circuses", or at least the latter part; he curtailed Hippodrome races, causing some murmurs of dissent in Constantinople itself.

Justin's penurious policy brought benefits when the Avars finally did strike at Mesopotamia in 587, still under the aging Khagan and Shahanshah Bayan, who had spent his time crushing Zoroastrian rebellions and uprisings of the major noble families that were left standing after Khosrau's civil war in the 550s and 560s. The Avars, being nomadic, had been forced to look for appropriate grazing for their horses, and found significant amounts of it in Paradene and in the Indus Valley, which was easily conquered from the various petty states that had sprung up in the wake of the fall of the Sassanid Empire. After that little expedition in 582-3, they were ready to take on the Eastern Empire; Bayan himself led an army through the Zagros towards the obscenely rich port of Charax, clearly intending to seize its riches and use it as a base to strike north. He was soon confronted by Priscus, who had collected the Syrian legions as well as reinforcements from the Ghassanid Kingdom, commanded by King al-Numan VII himself. While slightly outnumbered, the Romans managed to land an early victory at Orchoe, near the ruins of the ancient Ur of the Chaldeans. Bayan drew back and struck south again, besieging Charax itself, and Priscus pursued him south along the Euphrates. In a sharp, short action at Teredon, the Avars managed to force back their antagonists, lulled into a false sense of security by the victory further north. Charax was besieged during the winter and spring of 587-8, despite attempts by the Romans to relieve the city. When it fell in June 588, the Avar army stormed in and massacred most of the populace, including many foreign merchants, then was immediately forced to turn around and fight against Priscus' army, which began a new siege. With depleted supplies, the Avars were forced to break out; carrying significant amounts of loot and burning the rest, Bayan managed to escape with most of his army and the assorted plunder right under Priscus' nose, and even evaded the only other Roman field army, led by Tiberius Constantine and consisting of garrisons and troops stripped from the European portion of the empire. The Avars managed to escape back through the Zagros passes, and relegated the war in 590 and 591 to raids and counter-raids while the Avar army was built up, while the Roman treasury began to dwindle again. Justin III began to push for peace, boosted by the hawkish Tiberius' death in a cavalry battle in 591. Peace calls were stifled when the Avars attacked again in 592, again with Bayan at the head and driving for Ctesiphon this time. Priscus, with the combined forces of both field armies, dealt a major blow to Bayan's troops when he drove in the Avar flanks at Sumera and chased the enemy army up the Arba River, harassing the retreating Avars all the way. From here, the brushfire war died down again, briefly reigniting when the Axumite colony around Hormirzad was attacked in an effort to secure more plunder; the city's defenses, which by now were even greater than those of Charax, proved impregnable, and after repeated failures to breach the walls in 594 and 595, the Avars agreed to a peace, bought off by the Romans and Axum for a considerable sum. Justin III would doubtless have vetoed that decision had he still been alive, but a bout of illness had claimed him in 594, and Priscus, securing the allegiance of the field armies in Mesopotamia, was able to march back west and assert his claim to the throne.

The Romans may have temporarily managed to restabilize their political situation, but Axum, in the south, was still in some trouble in that regard. After Abraha's 578 death, he had left his empire to his son Masruq, who immediately had to fight a civil war with a native Axumite noble faction under one Saifu. Masruq had reasonable success, crushing the uprising after six years of fighting, despite being initially forced to flee Adulis, the great port city to which Abraha had switched the seat of government. While in Yemen and the Hejaz, which his father had pacified a few years earlier, Masruq raised a large force of Arabs, Yemeni, and loyal Axumites, and launched a daring counterattack that ended in brilliant success. In any event, Masruq was fairly secure upon his throne, but only two years after winning his little civil war died of unknown causes (probably not foul play, though). Having had no children, the negusa negast was succeeded by a native Axumite, formerly a member of one of the many conspiracies against him, one Wazena, in 585. Wazena managed to keep things going relatively smoothly, and it was he who dispatched troops to hold Hormirzad against the Avar attacks in the mid 590s. However, he had increasing problems holding on to southern Arabia, Yemen, and the Hejaz. In 597 he tried to forestall these problems by marrying into a major Arabian tribe, the Quraysh, specifically the clan of the Banu Hashim, which had fallen on somewhat hard times after the conquest of the Hejaz but which was beginning to somewhat revive and which proved to be an excellent ally for the Axumites in this case. With Quraysh support, further uprisings in the Hejaz were crushed in the years following the abortive Avar war, and Wazena was able to die in 599 with Axum itself in fairly good condition. The succession was for once relatively quiet, with Wazena's young son Ezana taking power as the fifth of that name. However, as the new negusa nagast was somewhat young yet, the queen mother, the Arab Khadijah, became a regent, ruling with a few minor revolts but generally maintaining order towards 615.
 
Eurasia to 615.

Actually, 615 is a fantastic year to snapshot Eurasia, so it will be duly taken. To start, the Britannic Isles were, thus far, still torn apart with deadly conflict. The pagan king Aethelfrith, lord of Bernicia and Deira, was tearing up central Britannia; he had smashed most of his rivals thus far, and was as of 615 busy preparing for further campaigns in the south, having driven away his rival Edwin, contestant for the throne of Deira, and also having scored an impressive victory over the Dál Riatans at Degsastan in 603. Edwin, however, had taken refuge with King Cearl of Mercia, who in an effort to break the increasingly strong hold of the Bernician king had not only married Edwin to his daughter but also come to ask Raedwald of the East Angles for aid. Raedwald, indeed, had his eye on the position of bretwalda, or lord of the isle (albeit a largely useless position, it was somewhat prestigious), and saw a chance in opposing the designs of the aging Aethelfrith to secure that power for himself. In the south of the isles, Jutish Cantware was entering the twilight of its golden age as the great king Aethelbert, the current bretwalda, slipped closer towards death. Elsewhere in the island, the Anglo-Saxon invaders continued to fight against the Romano-British and Celts with great success there as well; Wessex continued to grow stronger under Cynegils, while Sussex was generally beaten up by its larger neighbors, and Essex was undergoing something of a weak Christianization by the king, Saebert, who while converting to the rite of the Cross retained many pagan practices, and indeed stood idly by while his sons forced the Bishop of Londinium out of his see. While the Germanic invaders were strengthening, though, the Brythonic kingdoms of the west were not idle; despite the loss of Atrebatia and Elmet to the Germans, the King of Powys, Selyf ap Cynan, was marshaling a coalition to defend the western coast from the still power-hungry Aethelfrith.

Gaul and Germania had seen much turmoil in the last three decades, and things were finally beginning to settle down in 615. Following the extremely mediocre Frankish performance in the Gothic civil war of the 550s, Chlothar, sole Merovingian king, was at least able to consolidate his power over Aquitania, Burgundia, Austrasia, and Neustria, along with his vassals in Germania, namely the Thuringii and Alamanni; when he died (561) his lands were divided amongst his sons, namely Chram, Chilperic, Guntram, Sigebert, and Charibert, who quickly fell to civil war. Internal conflict dominated the 560s, and it was only in 568 with the deaths of Guntram and Chilperic (the former due to assassination by agents of Charibert, and the latter falling in battle to Chram's army at Lutetia) that things settled down somewhat; Sigebert was left with Austrasia and the vassal kingdoms of Thuringia and Alemannia, while his ally Charibert received Aquitania and Burgundia and Chram established suzerainty over Neustria. While the fiction of a united Frankish kingdom remained, after 568 the three portions of the country were increasingly divided; this was exacerbated, of course, by the crisis of the early eighties. After the disastrous defeat of 581, the Lombard tribes were forced to flee their former lands north of the Danuvius by the Bulgar Khagan Zabergan. After about two years the disparate clans coalesced again under the leadership of the young chief Authari, and moved west, into the lands of the Austrasian vassals. After smashing an Alamannic army in 584 at Rhedintovinum, the Lombards swept into Austrasia proper, and met up against Sigebert himself at the head of a Thuringian and Frankish army. Initially, the experienced Sigebert had the better of the Lombards, and landed defeats on them at Galaegia and Calancorum in 585. However, at Stragona the next year, deep within the wilds beyond the Austrasian frontier, Sigebert's army was unexpectedly smashed by Authari, who led a forlorn hope charge down from the ridgetop where the Lombards were camped. This took the Franks by surprise; Sigebert survived and rallied pieces of his army, but the irresistible Lombard charge had shattered most of the Merovingian force and separated Sigebert from his vassals. In 587, the Thuringian chieftain Gozbert switched sides and allied with Authari's Lombards, and the end became nigh. Sigebert was barely able to put up any resistance at all at the Battle of the Adrana River, where his scanty forces were swept up by the Lombard and Thuringian hordes. With the destruction of the Austrasian army, Sigebert's lands rapidly fell under Lombard control, and in 591 the siege of his capital, Divodurum, ended in his suicide and a Lombard victory.

Neustria was not idle, however. In fact, Chram saw an excellent opportunity for the aggrandizement of his own little kingdom; Sigebert, his late, unlamented brother, had been allying with Charibert to restrain Neustrian power since the end of the civil war, and with this restriction gone the king at Lutetia decided to take this unexpected opportunity and gain not only an ally but also hegemony in Francia itself. The short-lived kingdom of Aquitaine, now ruled by Charibert's illegitimate son Clovis II, was smashed by a series of vicious attacks from not only Chram's kingdom of Neustria and the Visigothic kingdom of Hispania, joined by an expeditionary force sent by the Western Emperor. Chram split Aquitaine with the Visigoths, seizing the northern half (i.e. everything north of the Carantomus River) and yielding the south to the Visigothic king Liuva III; he did the same thing with his nephew's Burgundian claims, awarding the southern portion to the Western Empire and taking everything north of the fortress of Bibracte. Thus, by 615 the Frankish lands were reunited under Chram's branch of the Merovingian dynasty, which was still torn apart by civil war between his sons Childeric and Dagobert; Childeric managed to win fairly quickly, though, and was duly crowned sole king as Childeric II. Childeric II, while somewhat less energetic than his father, did conduct campaigns against the Lombards, who had largely colonized Austrasia and were in the process of being converted to Christianity. The short, sharp wars he fought were largely inconclusive, and by 615 a rivalry was definitely developing between the two countries. Meanwhile, on their lonely peninsula, Britannic Armorica was still sticking it out, and developing their own little variant of the Romano-Celtic tongue out of range of Neustrian attack.

Visigothic Hispania had somewhat revived since its fall from the height of power it had once held during the reign of Clovis II. Athanagild, surprisingly enough, managed to maintain a semblance of peace and order, using the Chalcedonian Suevi (who had only recently converted en masse) as a common enemy around which to rally the Visigoths. By 580 he and his successor Liuva had crushed the little Gallaecian kingdom and consolidated their rule; by 600 the Visigoths had successfully intervened in the mess that was Gaul, seizing much of their former holdings in Aquitania. Good relations were hard to maintain with the Western Empire in the wake of the 550s civil war, though, until King Liuva II converted to Chalcedonian Christianity in 586 and thus allowed a significant measure of rapport with the similarly-Chalcedonian Goths in Italy. Arian holdouts did exist, as they had in Italy, but Liuva was able to crush these uprisings better than Athalaric, and they barely were able to make a move at all during the brief Aquitanian intervention. By 615, King Gundobar was able to rule a relatively peaceful, somewhat powerful kingdom with internal and religious tranquility, especially as the Visigothic ruling class slowly was subsumed by the native Ibero-Romans, although this process, which had been going since the fifth century, was extremely slow.

The Vandal Kingdom of North Africa was still alive, though its list of allies was growing thin. While still a preeminent sea power in the Mediterranean, it was only able to crush one of its opponents (Visigoths, Western Empire, or Eastern Empire), not two or three at once. The staunch Arianism of the ruling Vandals, who refused to intermix with the native Romano-Africans, made internal peace impossible as well, and frequently Vandal kings were absorbed in crushing revolts. The excellent agricultural production of Byzacena and Africa Proconsularis continued, though, and the Vandals were at least relatively self-sufficient. Vandal Kings relied primarily on piracy to gain wealth, as they were somewhat leery of risking open conflict; this gained them further enemies, although until 615 they were distracted by other foreign policy directions. King Suintila feared a crushing alliance of the Roman Empires and the Visigoths, which while still not official was increasingly apparent. As of 615, Vandal Africa may not have a very long time to live.

The Western Roman Empire had developed admirably since its bloody beginning during the Gothic civil war. Athalaric had had his son baptized as "Claudius", and he took the throne as the Third of that name upon his father's peaceful death in 567. Claudius III, surnamed "Gothicus" as had been the second (somewhat ironically, for they were for opposite reasons), continued to assert the imperial prerogative over the former Gothic nobles, most of whom had been slaughtered as Arians during the civil war (making the job significantly easier). Many of the old imperial positions were restored, whether they had any real significance or not; therefore, the Italians were given a Senate, to which both Goths and native Romans belonged, as well as a slowly developing bureaucratic system which with the support of the imperial army took over many of the functions that the former imperial bureaucracy had held. His army, modeled after that of the Eastern Empire, performed admirably in repulsing Bulgar invasions after the collapse of the Lombard state (albeit much of the work had been done by the Eastern navy, which secured the Danuvius easily). Claudius III continued the tradition of Latin names when when he had his son christened Tiberius II, who ascended to the purple in 589 and who was almost immediately forced to intervene in the Gallic mess. Fortunately, due primarily to his able magister militum Ildibad, who personally led the imperial army to victory over the already overwhelmed Aquitanian army at Ariolica. In any event, Tiberius was free to rot away of boredom and booze while his ministers ran things, although after Ildibad's death in 602 Bulgar raids began to worsen, some getting significant distances through Pannonia, even burning Aquincum on one occasion (in 607). Meanwhile, to deal with the Vandals, a medium-sized but respectable navy had been developed, along typical lines, but without the harpaces in order to avoid the very formidable danger of fireships (of which the Vandals were quite fond).

And, of course, the Church was resubordinated to imperial rule; after the death of the Bishop of Rome during the civil war, Athalaric and his predecessors had begun to reassert the imperial supremacy in that arena as well, forcing the Bishop to be approved by the Emperor upon the death of a prior one. Indeed, in 611, Tiberius presided over an ecumenical council at Aquileia, also called the Quinisext Council, that declared Rome, Jerusalem, Alexandria, Antioch, and Constantinople to be equal patriarchal sees, creating the pentarchical system. This pentarchy was to preside at ecumenical councils, and given the odd number of Patriarchs would be able to, by a vote amongst themselves, solve any particular crisis. In reality, though, the Constantinopolitan Patriarch often got his way, for the Western Empire had but one Patriarch and the Eastern had four, which often voted in a bloc, although sometimes the Patriarchs of Jerusalem and Alexandria would disrupt the status quo, especially in the earlier days, when the monophysite heresy was still strong in those parts (causing cooperation between the Chalcedonian Patriarchs, i.e. those of Constantinople, Rome, and Antioch...but that, and the later fate of the pentarchy, is another story.

The Bulgar Khaganate consolidated and managed to survive as a non-transient state during this period, and while achieving nothing close to the success of the Avars of Persia, it still retained significant power along the eastern Danuvius and frequently raided across that river into Western and Eastern Roman territory, especially as the imperial navies declined early in the seventh century. Much intermixing took place between the Bulgars and the Slavs, who were once again free to spread out throughout Eastern Europe, although no large-scale migration was able to occur beyond the Danuvius due to the still extant and still significant imperial power.

Priscus' rule in Eastern Rome had not been a particularly happy one; his continuing penury brought him hatred from the people of the capital, while his staunch Chalcedonianism and monophysite persecution caused revolts in the Levant and Egypt, which he spent much of his reign trying to quell with significant success (although of course hatred all around). A compromise with the monophysites became increasingly distant, while the imperial power itself was somewhat compromised. However, fortunately the Avars were involved in their own troubles to the east, and so the fortification of Mesopotamia was sufficient to hold them at bay, while barbarian migrations through the Caucasus failed due to the power of Lazica and Iberia, which were dynastically united by Dachi III. Doubtless the united Caucasian state (named Colchis) would have still succumbed to a migration of more than a few tribes, but the latent energy of the steppe was still held in check by the Gokturk Empire, which was undergoing its own interesting little crisis. In any event, upon Priscus' death by assassination in 604 his successor had few external problems to deal with, but the domestic situation was frightful. That Emperor, Anastasius II, had been the ringleader of the conspiracy that had not only unseated his predecessor, and within the next year worked to clean out the highest offices of Priscus supporters, including the Patriarch of Constantinople, the diehard Chalcedonian Maximianus II, and the magister militum per Orientem John of Paphlagonia. This bloodletting paved the way for the installation of moderates, such as the Patriarch Anatolius II of Constantinople and Flavian IV of Antioch. However, the current Roman Patriarch, Honorius, refused to even consider any sort of reconciliation with the Monophysitic Patriarchs, and a three-way quasi-schism ensued, which was not really solved as of 615. In the meantime, Anastasius remained at peace, and his reign to 615 was largely uneventful, save for the attempts to limit military actions against monophysite rebels in the southern Levant.

Axum having already been examined, we can skip over to the Avar Persian empire. While Bayan was Khagan, the Avars had become somewhat integrated with the Persian populace at large. The fact that there weren't actually all that many Persians themselves to control didn't hurt; the loss of most of the critical Mesopotamia population centers had, as mentioned, turned any possible Persian state into a rump one. In any event, under Bayan's rule the Avars had established themselves as a significant demographical element of the Persian society, and strife was largely prevented by the Avars' decision to yield on some critical domestic issues, such as religion (had the followers of Zarathustra been persecuted, the whole country would have risen up en masse). By and large, the Avar state, with the Khagan/Shahanshah at its head, consolidated during these years, although repeated raids on Roman territory and Axumite Hormirzad (increasingly becoming unprofitable and pointless, as any trade with Avar Persia was outweighed by the horrendous costs in defending the outpost) did occur. After Bayan's death a year after the conclusion of the Mesopotamian conflict (596, for those who don't pay attention), the Avars began embarking on policies clearly aimed at war with the Romans…were it not for the Gokturk Khaganate, which nearly imploded . To that point, there had been a clear succession of Gokturk khagans, beginning with their original leader Istämi and his son Tardu. Tardu's death, though, nearly precipitated a dynastic crisis, for he had no children but many cousins, all of whom wanted the throne. The next few years were dominated by major struggles between the various claimants, sending the khaganate careering into civil war and allowing interventions from numerous outside powers, including the Chinese and the Avars. Eventually, Shelun, the contestant who had control of the capital, Ötüken, secured the allegiance of one of the Chinese armies and annihilated all of his opponents in the east, though he could not destroy his brother's forces, supported by the Avars, in the west. That brother, Viro, met with Shelun after over a decade of conflict and in 608 confirmed the Gokturks' split into eastern and western khaganates, aligned generally with the Avars and the Chinese respectively. Relative peace returned to the steppes, though constant low-level warfare between the two brothers continued.

That, of course, brings us to the Chinese themselves. The existence of the Gokturk khaganate had somewhat halted the constant barbarian attacks on China's periphery, allowing the southern and northern halves of the empire to savagely attack each other once more. The period of southern and northern dynasties was beginning to come to an end, though, as the southern dynasty of Liang was seriously weakened and eventually succumbed to a generals' revolt that established the Chen dynasty. In the meantime, to the north, the Western Wei, having smashed the Rouran with Gokturk assistance, were also destroyed from the inside out, with another army coup resulting in the creation of the northern Zhou dynasty. These Northern Zhou, while not the most powerful of the Chinese states, were ruled (at least at first) by capable emperors. After one of the legitimate emperors, Wu, crushed the power behind the throne, one Yuwen Hu, in 572, he began to build up an impressive military. He was greatly aided in his aim of reuniting China by the death of the great Northern Qi general Hulü Guang, who perished as a victim of court intrigue. Wu's attacks on Qi, which had earlier been stymied by his able opponent, finally broke the back of enemy resistance at the Alesia-like Battle of Pingyang, where the Qi army under Emperor Gao Wei himself was disastrously defeated. After Pingyang, the remaining years of Emperor Wu's life were taken up by crushing the last vestiges of Qi resistance and ensuring stable Zhou control over the entire north. Within two years, though, he was embroiled in a two-front war with the Chen in the south and the Gokturks to the north, and upon his death not long afterward yielded an increasingly dangerous situation to his son, Emperor Xuan, who during his own brief reign was embroiled in court intrigue and who died of a mysterious illness in 580. The stage was now set for the competent general Yang Jian to walk on; he assumed the position of regent for Xuan's successor Jing, but within a year discarded that arrangement in favor of Jing's abdication to the post of duke of Jie, and his own ascension to the throne as Emperor Wen of Sui. After wiping out every last vestige of the royal family of Northern Zhou (originally confined to just the Duke of Jie's relatives, but eventually the former emperor himself was slaughtered), Wen was secure enough to finally reunite China.

Of course, no new dynasty would be complete without some reforms at the beginning, and Wen duly enacted them: Zhou's "six departments" bureaucracy was discarded and a new one, the "five bureaus" system, replaced it. He also improved central authority by another mean, that is to say he allowed his immediate subordinates, the imperial princes, greater authority and eliminated much of the army's former autonomy. The remainder of that autonomy was taken away when he "discovered treachery" by several key military commanders and had this "Three Dukes" conspiracy crushed with their execution. Wen turned even more away from the old Legalist punishments by altering the penal code and decreasing its severity. He improved the capital, as well, enlarging Chang'an by building a vast new suburb, Daxing, and moving the instruments of State there. Of course, public works of a more practical nature weren't neglected either, because the new emperor decided to build a new canal to bypass the treacherous Wei River to improve trade.

In foreign relations, too, Emperor Wen showed no small acumen. The Gokturks had been fighting an endemic war with the Zhou and Sui both, although its intensity was extremely low, much lower than had been the Rouran norm. However, that threatened to change when the Gokturk Khagan, Tardu, was angered by the destruction of Zhou's royal family, mostly because his daughter was among the dead. He threatened to escalate the usual raiding warfare into an all out campaign against the Sui, but Wen preempted him by first stirring up some dynastic problems with his many cousins (this of course led to the later civil war upon Tardu's death fifteen years later) and then launching his own attack, briefly establishing an ascendancy over the confused Gokturks and forcing Tardu to submit and end the raids. With the north secure from the Gokturks, Wen was free to dabble in the south, preparatory to a campaign to shatter the Chen; he freed up an army by ensuring that his vassal, the Western Liang emperor Jing, wouldn't support any of the military and noble conspiracies currently going around and instead would dispatch an army to aid in the destruction of Chen. In 589, within a few months, four Sui armies crossed the Yangtze and attacked the capital Jiankang. The Chen emperor Shubao, degenerate as he was, had let the army slip into a dangerously weak state, and only token resistance was put up to the Sui reconquest of the entire country. The following year, all resistance ceased, and the Middle Kingdom was once more one under the Sui aegis.

The next decade was largely taken up by consolidation of Sui's new southern lands; the application of the Sui legal and governmental systems to former Chen territory didn't go over well and a revolt nearly had to be crushed, but the people were generally fobbed off later on by public works and conciliatory programs such as tax reduction for the famine-stricken south. However, in his later days, he relegated much war-making power to the imperial princes, the scions of the central government (which held more and more power as private citizens were forbidden from carrying any weapons), briefly intervening in the steppes in support of his ally/vassal (the relationship changed frequently) Khagan Tardu, and later, when the Gokturk Khaganate imploded, Sui armies were sent into the steppes to assist Shelun's claim to the throne. The resulting split between the two Gokturk khaganates left the Eastern one largely an ally and near-vassal of the Sui. The Eastern Gokturks greatly assisted in the crisis that came a few years later, in the late 590s, when the irksome Goguryeo king Yeongyang, after refusing to recognize the Sui emperor as his overlord, sent emissaries to the tribes along the Sui northern frontier. Old Tardu had the emissaries slain and ended the possibility of any attacks on the Sui northern frontier, while forcing the tribes of the Mohe to ignore Goguryeo emissaries as well; the Goguryeo continued to refuse to submit until 602, when Emperor Wen, near death, sent a missive demanding that the Goguryeo stop the border raids and acknowledge the Sui as overlords, although in reality it would be purely nominal. With threats from Baekje, one of the other three kingdoms of the Korean peninsula, to help him along, Yeongyang grudgingly submitted to nominal authority. With no foreign threats and a relatively stable internal situation, Wen's son Yang was able to ascend to the throne with little fuss in 603 and continue the public works system. By 615, Sui's rule seemed fairly firmly established, although of course there were domestic issues, primarily dealing with dissent at having to do all this bloody work and still some complaints from the army about it being firmly under the imperial thumb.

Finally, we turn to India, which after the destruction of the Gupta Empire and the Hephthalite kingdoms that succeeded it, was balkanized into several small republics and kingdoms. Easily the most powerful of these were the two great Deccan empires, those of the Chalukya and the Pallavas. The former was larger and somewhat more militarily powerful, but the Pallavas, despite generally being blocked off by Chalukya expansion and also being somewhat more decentralized, were able to stave off any invasions of their territory with reasonable success, while being somewhat more accomplished in the non-military spheres, such as that of architecture. The petty republics and kingdoms that ruled the north, including Malwa, Thanesar, Kalinga, and Magadha, were absolutely terrified of the southerners' power, and it would take only a slight change in the balance of power to push them into each others' hands and create a grand alliance. India, too, looked sure to blow up as 615 approached.

In any event, the world system that had to some extent been damaged in the past century was beginning to restabilize again, and a chance of recovering former glories in both East and West was glimpsed by great leaders on both sides. All it would take for all these dreams to come crashing down was one small push, in the form of one man. In 615 this one man would make his appearance on the world stage; Eurasia would never be the same.

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I realize that it's certainly not proven that the Rouran and the Avars were one and the same; however, it's used in most of the books I have (admittedly, none are Chinese in authorship), and it sort of works for what I have in mind, much better than them being different anyway. After all, a large chunk of this period is unsourced or very cursorily so.

I also realize that some of the names may seem...ahistorical or at least early. This is not a mistake; Dis' complaints about the same people being rather unlikely this far down the line have not fallen on deaf ears. If they were born after the PoD, then they probably don't exist. In this earlier period, I was sort of generous about historical personages remaining in this time flow, but later will be a lot different.
 
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