Analysis of the coming Israel, Iran tiff.

[otago]

Now this is an interesting analysis of the upcoming tiff between Israel and Iran.
Would Israel be prepared to pay the diplomatic price to use nukes on a strike on Iran ?

Would they bomb that Russian staffed nuclear reactor ?

And Vlad the impalers response to a hundred odd Russians being killed would be what ?

Yet it seems that Israel cannot stop Iran getting nukes in the end unless the USA is prepared to invade for regime change which would cost what in casualties ?

http://wartard.blogspot.co.nz/2010/11/my-favourite-war-that-hasnt-happened_08.html

 

[CELTICEMPIRE]

Israel would pwn some Iranian newbs

 

[Joecoolyo]

No one's going to use nukes.

Don't be ridiculous.

 

[Silurian]

Israel cannot use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive strike and hope to survive in its current form.

Israel would be the new Gaza

 

[Dreadnought]

I didn't know of the Millennium war games. That section was pretty fascinating.

 

[Winner]

Israel cannot use nuclear weapons in a pre-emptive strike and hope to survive in its current form.

Israel would be the new Gaza

Hardly so. It all depends on the context - the US nuked Japan, and most Americans on this forum see it favourably, not as a monstrous war crime on the scale of what Nazi Germany had done.

 

[Silurian]

Hardly so. It all depends on the context - the US nuked Japan, and most Americans on this forum see it favourably, not as a monstrous war crime on the scale of what Nazi Germany had done.

That’s a different to Israel launching a Pearl Harbour attack with nuclear weapons against Iran.

 

[GamezRule]

To be fair, nuking Japan was a monstrous war crime.

 

[Cutlass]

Hardly so. It all depends on the context - the US nuked Japan, and most Americans on this forum see it favourably, not as a monstrous war crime on the scale of what Nazi Germany had done.

The 2 situations cannot in any way, shape, or form, be compared.....

 

[Lord of Elves]

To be fair, nuking Japan was a monstrous war crime.

Not this debate again.

 

[kramerfan86]

My main concern is the US getting dragged into this mess. I hope if Obama is president he tells Israel they are on their own but I am afraid the iranians will be stupid and do something that forces Obama's hand like a blockade of the straits.

 

[rugbyLEAGUEfan]

Not this debate again.

I'm surprised it's debated ?? It wasn't

 

[Tahuti]

Hardly so. It all depends on the context - the US nuked Japan, and most Americans on this forum see it favourably, not as a monstrous war crime on the scale of what Nazi Germany had done.

Israel nuking Iran would be more justified than Hiroshima and Nagasaki, considering the US basically was bound to win, while the situation of Israel's people is more perilous still.

Nevertheless, nuking Iran would be insane, and Israel knows that.

 

[Leoreth]

Problem is, Israel doesn't have the capability to delay the Iranian nuclear program with aerial strikes alone. They lack bases close to Iran or proper refueling planes to sustain the continuous bombardment that would be necessary for that.

And Iran has the capabilities to strike back, plus Hizbollah in Israel's backyard who have no problems with targeting urban areas.

Without the US lifting a finger, it looks bad on the conventional front for Israel. Of course they won't use nuclear weapons ("Having nuclear weapons is evil and dangerous and therefore we must nuke you!"), but continue to let the Mossad handle things.

 

[holy king]

Israel would pwn some Iranian newbs

pictured: how those iranian newbs might look like after being pwned:



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[Tahuti]

Problem is, Israel doesn't have the capability to delay the Iranian nuclear program with aerial strikes alone. They lack bases close to Iran or proper refueling planes to sustain the continuous bombardment that would be necessary for that.

Secret aid from Saudi-Arabia isn't an unlikely scenario, considering they hate Iran too. They're just not so public about it, which may work well against Iran.

And Iran has the capabilities to strike back, plus Hizbollah in Israel's backyard who have no problems with targeting urban areas.

I can imagine Israel having some nuclear subs ready to strike, should Israel itself get blown to cinders. So whoever comes with the idea of nuking Israel, retaliation or no, is an idiot.

Without the US lifting a finger, it looks bad on the conventional front for Israel. Of course they won't use nuclear weapons ("Having nuclear weapons is evil and dangerous and therefore we must nuke you!"), but continue to let the Mossad handle things.

There won't be an Israeli-Iranian war. What would either gain? Nothing. It's just rethoric, designed to appease the common folk in the respective countries. This is especially important in Iran, where Anti-Israel red-herring is a relatively easy and common trick to avoid having to share the same fate as Mubarak did.

If Iran is to fight a conventional war, it will be a war against the USA since (only) the USA plenty of good reasons to see the Iranian regime collapse and - unlike Israel and Saudi-Arabia - has the power to make it happen without risking total doom. Israel and Saudi-Arabia will undoubtedly come to America's aid, but neither will think of even slighting Iran without the US' say-so.

 

[NickyJ]

Israel would pwn some Iranian newbs

This.

No one's going to use nukes.

Don't be ridiculous.

This.

To be fair, nuking Japan was a monstrous war crime.

Not this debate again.

This.

I'm surprised it's debated ?? It wasn't

This.

SThere won't be an Israeli-Iranian war. What would either gain? Nothing. It's just rethoric, designed to appease the common folk in the respective countries. This is especially important in Iran, where Anti-Israel red-herring is a relatively easy and common trick to avoid having to share the same fate as Mubarak did.

If Iran is to fight a conventional war, it will be a war against the USA since (only) the USA plenty of good reasons to see the Iranian regime collapse and - unlike Israel and Saudi-Arabia - has the power to make it happen without risking total doom. Israel and Saudi-Arabia will undoubtedly come to America's aid, but neither will think of even slighting Iran without the US' say-so.

Eh, I think Israel would go it alone if they absolutely had to. From what I've seen, Israel sees Iran as a clear threat, so I don't think they'd wait for Iran to build their military.

No nukes will be used, and I really don't know whether war will be break out. On the one hand, I just can't see a war with Iran. On the other hand, Iran is crazy. If war does indeed break out, I see a 90% chance the U.S. will get involved. I would expect Obama's approval rating to rise if he did, and I think he'd use that chance. And, since I believe we should help Israel against Iran, I would approve.

 

[Takhisis]

I don't think Israel could take on the entire Middle East on its own, not if they used nuclear bombs which are sure to cause a crapload of civilian casualties and I don't see how the US could weasel out of preventing the UN from sanctioning them as well. I don't think a blockade of the Gulf would force the US to use nuclear weapons, and as it's shared by Iran with the Saudis, Iraq and the other oil-producers I'm not sure they want to go head-to-head with them, not like this.

 

[kramerfan86]

How in the world would starting another war after our last two are finally winding down get him an approval boost? if anything it will damage his standing amongst his base. Another brutal ground war when our budget is in shambles would be ridiculous. Plus it would cause oil to spike which would brutalize the fragile economy recovery.

 

[Ayn Rand]

The article is awful. It mistakenly labels Hizbollah geurillas as "heavy infantry" and says that sitting in bunkers waiting to die is "the new blitzkrieg".

As if that's not bad enough, the author claims that "asymetric speedboats" would give Iran a fleet strike capability equal to an American carrier fleet - when every analyst knows that small missile boats are hopelessly vulnerable to naval aviation.

It really reinforces the idea that Iran can do just about nothing if US-Israel decide to take out their nuclear facilities. Israel and America might not be able to decisively win, but Iran will lose, lose or lose.