Zack
99% hot gas
If you exclude d1 it goes down to 2.88
http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=551669
read day 1, he'll pop up soon enough
Aspiring Rapper's MAFIA- Game Thread
- Thread starter Askthepizzaguy
- Start date
read day 1, he'll pop up soon enough
Legato Endless
Prince
Live mafia favors the town though to an extent. There's that famous quote about how town will always win armed with a notebook. You also have lying decay in real life, which online activity doesn't replicate.
I'll sample some games though at some point.
I'll sample some games though at some point.
Zack
99% hot gas
Live mafia is a totally different game. I'm not really a fan honestly.
Lohrenswald
世界的 bottom ranked physicist
wow what an unpleasant person
Legato Endless
Prince
It's not tactical enough for me, but I've only played thrice. The seven games at my local con were not interesting. After a bumbling start, I straight shot the mafia by lynch two games in a row. Then I got night 1 killed twice. Figures. Game 6 I was scum and l had a town lover. >_< There was also a super wolf hunting the scum team. Who was part of the scum team. Game 7 everyone around me was so drunk we were doomed.
Blah .
*kenning
I beg your bloody pardon? I restrained the cat memes to changing my avatar to a cat every Friday night and restoring it to normal every Sunday.
Also, it was really fun playing with y'all!
If anyone wants to hit me up on Skype, shoot me a PM
Ditto this!!
Thanks all and GG Scum!
I'm not scary, you're scary!!!
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
Okay I'll get into posting the role PMs and clarifying the setup n stuff today.
Mmmmm sleepy times. Still waking up.
Mmmmm sleepy times. Still waking up.
Zack
99% hot gas
What were the two methods? Or will you get to that later?
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
Method 1:
If they are under vote pressure and are forced to claim, should they mention bulletproof or commuter, you will know the method required to kill them straight out. If they mention they have a resistance of some kind and don't specify, then you know it's one or the other, and can wait until you kill others or lynch others or others claim to narrow it down.
Method 2:
If the 2 commuters are already dead, for example, by the lynch
the remaining resistant people will be bulletproof. And this is true, vice-versa. While you didn't know for sure at the start of the game how many of each there were, if a bulletproof person dies, the odds are better that any other resistant person will be a commuter. If two bulletproof persons die, it's essentially a lock that anyone else with natural resistance will be a commuter or they just happened to be protected by a doctor that night. And since the doctors are almost always vulnerable to your regular shots, sweeping with the vanilla shots might eliminate them from the game early. Doctors who are forced to claim might also reveal who they protected on a night that there was a missing kill, and you'll know if they were even protecting the person who didn't die, usually revealing a commuter or bulletproof in that slot.
-----------------other thoughts-
If you simply guess, you have a 50/50 chance of being correct anyway. Guessing when you have only encountered one person with resistance is probably a waste of time, it's better to use the normal kills to locate murder-resistant people, like an investigation.
If you only have one known resistant, it's better to keep sweeping. But, suppose there are 3 known people with resistances to your normal kills, and they haven't revealed which resistance it is. Even with no additional knowledge:
The game started off with dead commuter d1, which meant that the odds were pretty good anyone who was resistant thereafter was a bulletproof.
Example, when you hit Cass that one night early on, you found a bulletproof.
So suppose you took a night at shot at Cass with an anti-bulletproof shot. She would have died outright, or, she would have been very likely to be commuter. Then you would have knowledge of who both of the commuters were, one dead, and one alive but found out. And then, any other persons who had resistances would be easy to assume are all bulletproof, or the informant.
Those assumptions are easy enough to make that the addition of limited doctors and a murder-resistant member of your team was intentional, so as to still make it a bit of a guessing game.
Doctors are unlikely to be the reason why someone is resistant to death, because those passive resistances are effective every single night for that target, and a doctor has a chance of protecting a mafioso and thus not influencing the game at all, or has a chance of protecting the other doctor, which does absolutely nothing, or might be protecting someone you're not murdering.
They become powerful if they're still alive in the late game and the odds are higher they're protecting a vanilla townie that you're shooting. But in the early game, they had almost no influence on the game and could only get extremely lucky.
The bulletproofs and the commuters (2 each) were the most likely reason why someone didn't die if you shot them, and as they died, claimed, or were revealed by some method (random vanilla shot sweeps, or a concerted 50/50 shot, you shoot them and they live or die, gains some information that way)
It's especially solving if there is one dead commuter or bulletproof already. Then almost anything you do to try to take down a resistant person tells you valuable information. If you try to aim for the other remaining example of that power, and they don't die, you've narrowed it down to them being very likely to be one of the examples of the other power. If they do die, you basically have it locked that the other two resistant people are both the other kind of resistant power, or you've located your informant which is very helpful to you.
You probably won't try very hard to lynch someone who you have determined is either one kind of resistant power or the informant.
A lot of the approach above relies a bit on playing the waiting game.
The vanilla shots being deflected tells you something, that they hit a protected person or a resistant person, and it will usually be a resistant person.
Flips and claims should give you enough additional information that even one 50/50 shot at a resistant person has a decent chance of murdering one, and completely solving the rest.
It's not 100%, but there are processes of elimination and deduction, the advantage of knowing a lot about these powers because you were provided with their role information at game start, and claims and lynches to help you narrow it down.
If you decided to chance things early and use one of your special kills on someone you know to be resistant to murder, it's still in the early stages where the odds are lower that the town can guess who you are with the lynch vote, so a missed kill at that stage of the game is less threatening to your odds of winning.
If you hit the target and kill them, you reveal one of the resistant townies and make it very simple to solve the others. So even if one of them didn't die early by the lynch, it's relatively easy to find a resistant person and try to take them out with a 50/50 shot very early with very little risk if the result ends up being no murder that night.
That's what I thought about when designing the game, and although you didn't know the exact setup, you began with enough information I feel to be able to come up with a strategy of tackling this problem which would be better than blind guesses, and can probably solve it with a likely maximum of one incorrect guess.
With the slight additional variables of the informant and a weak doctor you didn't know about with a one-shot super protection, it meant there was a slight chance that you could make all the right assumptions and still miss more than once, but I felt the odds were low enough that it doesn't undercut the general utility of those assumptions.
If they are under vote pressure and are forced to claim, should they mention bulletproof or commuter, you will know the method required to kill them straight out. If they mention they have a resistance of some kind and don't specify, then you know it's one or the other, and can wait until you kill others or lynch others or others claim to narrow it down.
Method 2:
If the 2 commuters are already dead, for example, by the lynch
the remaining resistant people will be bulletproof. And this is true, vice-versa. While you didn't know for sure at the start of the game how many of each there were, if a bulletproof person dies, the odds are better that any other resistant person will be a commuter. If two bulletproof persons die, it's essentially a lock that anyone else with natural resistance will be a commuter or they just happened to be protected by a doctor that night. And since the doctors are almost always vulnerable to your regular shots, sweeping with the vanilla shots might eliminate them from the game early. Doctors who are forced to claim might also reveal who they protected on a night that there was a missing kill, and you'll know if they were even protecting the person who didn't die, usually revealing a commuter or bulletproof in that slot.-----------------other thoughts-
If you simply guess, you have a 50/50 chance of being correct anyway. Guessing when you have only encountered one person with resistance is probably a waste of time, it's better to use the normal kills to locate murder-resistant people, like an investigation.
If you only have one known resistant, it's better to keep sweeping. But, suppose there are 3 known people with resistances to your normal kills, and they haven't revealed which resistance it is. Even with no additional knowledge:
The game started off with dead commuter d1, which meant that the odds were pretty good anyone who was resistant thereafter was a bulletproof.
Example, when you hit Cass that one night early on, you found a bulletproof.
So suppose you took a night at shot at Cass with an anti-bulletproof shot. She would have died outright, or, she would have been very likely to be commuter. Then you would have knowledge of who both of the commuters were, one dead, and one alive but found out. And then, any other persons who had resistances would be easy to assume are all bulletproof, or the informant.
Those assumptions are easy enough to make that the addition of limited doctors and a murder-resistant member of your team was intentional, so as to still make it a bit of a guessing game.
Doctors are unlikely to be the reason why someone is resistant to death, because those passive resistances are effective every single night for that target, and a doctor has a chance of protecting a mafioso and thus not influencing the game at all, or has a chance of protecting the other doctor, which does absolutely nothing, or might be protecting someone you're not murdering.
They become powerful if they're still alive in the late game and the odds are higher they're protecting a vanilla townie that you're shooting. But in the early game, they had almost no influence on the game and could only get extremely lucky.
The bulletproofs and the commuters (2 each) were the most likely reason why someone didn't die if you shot them, and as they died, claimed, or were revealed by some method (random vanilla shot sweeps, or a concerted 50/50 shot, you shoot them and they live or die, gains some information that way)
It's especially solving if there is one dead commuter or bulletproof already. Then almost anything you do to try to take down a resistant person tells you valuable information. If you try to aim for the other remaining example of that power, and they don't die, you've narrowed it down to them being very likely to be one of the examples of the other power. If they do die, you basically have it locked that the other two resistant people are both the other kind of resistant power, or you've located your informant which is very helpful to you.
You probably won't try very hard to lynch someone who you have determined is either one kind of resistant power or the informant.
A lot of the approach above relies a bit on playing the waiting game.
The vanilla shots being deflected tells you something, that they hit a protected person or a resistant person, and it will usually be a resistant person.
Flips and claims should give you enough additional information that even one 50/50 shot at a resistant person has a decent chance of murdering one, and completely solving the rest.
It's not 100%, but there are processes of elimination and deduction, the advantage of knowing a lot about these powers because you were provided with their role information at game start, and claims and lynches to help you narrow it down.
If you decided to chance things early and use one of your special kills on someone you know to be resistant to murder, it's still in the early stages where the odds are lower that the town can guess who you are with the lynch vote, so a missed kill at that stage of the game is less threatening to your odds of winning.
If you hit the target and kill them, you reveal one of the resistant townies and make it very simple to solve the others. So even if one of them didn't die early by the lynch, it's relatively easy to find a resistant person and try to take them out with a 50/50 shot very early with very little risk if the result ends up being no murder that night.
That's what I thought about when designing the game, and although you didn't know the exact setup, you began with enough information I feel to be able to come up with a strategy of tackling this problem which would be better than blind guesses, and can probably solve it with a likely maximum of one incorrect guess.
With the slight additional variables of the informant and a weak doctor you didn't know about with a one-shot super protection, it meant there was a slight chance that you could make all the right assumptions and still miss more than once, but I felt the odds were low enough that it doesn't undercut the general utility of those assumptions.
Zack
99% hot gas
First method doesn't count because that is out of our control. It's not really even a method, that's not something we can do to seek out specific roles, it just happens (and actually it doesn't happen because everyone is too scared of their power being countered - see Arakhor d1).
Second method requires a lot of potentially wasted nightkills. How do we know Cass isn't the informant? How do we know Cass wasn't a vanilla protected by doctor? If she's not bulletproof, that's two nights with a grand total of zero (or one) kills between them, in a game where we have a smaller-than-expected scum team for the game's size.
I don't see those methods as practical. If we don't luck into lynching a bunch of power roles, if even one of us dies, the game can spiral out of our control really fast. If no one's dying at night, eventually town will start lynching scum.
I enjoyed the game, I really did, and I know we swept, so this might seem petty. But I question the game's balance nonetheless.
Second method requires a lot of potentially wasted nightkills. How do we know Cass isn't the informant? How do we know Cass wasn't a vanilla protected by doctor? If she's not bulletproof, that's two nights with a grand total of zero (or one) kills between them, in a game where we have a smaller-than-expected scum team for the game's size.
I don't see those methods as practical. If we don't luck into lynching a bunch of power roles, if even one of us dies, the game can spiral out of our control really fast. If no one's dying at night, eventually town will start lynching scum.
I enjoyed the game, I really did, and I know we swept, so this might seem petty. But I question the game's balance nonetheless.
Zack
99% hot gas
And I know it's worse because my current avatar makes me look like a smug little jackass.
Visorslash
Deity
tldr.
Zack
99% hot gas
the australian educational system at work
Visorslash
Deity
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
I think I left some sentences unfinished up there. LOL
Just waking up. Trying to make me articulate things = bad XD
Just waking up. Trying to make me articulate things = bad XD
Mat93
Emperor
- Joined
- Mar 6, 2012
- Messages
- 1,104
It was enjoyable, no worries on that front. Frustratingly so. It was also a fine performance by the scum team, so cudos
Having seen most of the setup, I'd of expected it to be a lot closer, possibly town winning 60% of the time.10/10, would get annoyed and get lynched in my absence again.
@content, I agree with Zack, lower than especially D1 in this game, but higher than normal is about right. I think it got to that point later on. D1 though...and it being the same players all the time. Probably didn't help.
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
I would be willing to put the game balance to the test in a rematch, with the setup identical and the roles and limitations being known.
In theory, that should give the town even more of an advantage. I actually strongly believe in the balance of this game and think the red crew has a decent chance of winning twice in a row.
Zack
99% hot gas
I mean 2 games is a terrible sample size 
Askthepizzaguy
Know the Dark Side
Bah, reasoned criticisms and disagreement over the game balance won't offend me.
The kind of whining it takes to offend my sensibilities falls under the category of "look at how awesome I am, how bad everyone else is, even though I did poorly myself".
Feel free to offer feedback. You don't have to lose a game to think it's balanced against your team.
