Brexit Thread IV - They're laughing with us, not at us

[Hrothbern]

Here an article suggesting that it seems unlikely that the UK would or could go for the Norway model.
https://esharp.eu/debates/the-uk-an...-eea-member-after-brexit#.W44uwwjj_Nl.twitter

Most of what is reported in the newsmedia is about the disadvantages for the UK.
But those other EEA members have a voice as well. To be more precise they have each a veto voice.

In order to get there the UK has to become member of the EEA (Norway, Iceland, Liechtenstein) and the EFTA (the EEA + Switzerland), which needs the green light of each of these countries and each EU-member.
Once a member of the EEA, that Norway model, the UK is in at an equal footing with Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein.
When for example new EU legislation is to be implemented in any of these 4 countries, any of these 4 countries can veto the quick implementation of any other country, while it is itself still aiming at negotiating the exact implementation or slight amendments of new EU legislation for the EEA.

This means that those three existing EEA members must feel really confident that the UK is not going to be a risk for smooth cooperation and implementation.
And the EU will not like it when a backlog of the EEA would become too big, because in that case the EEA members do have the trading benefits, but become less compliant to for example health, environmental, etc, etc standards.

 

[Arakhor]

I can't imagine why the EEA would be nervous at including us as a member...

 

[Cheetah]

We already hinted that we would block a UK EEA membership as far back as the Brexit campaign... It simply won't happen.

The UK could get their very own EEA though, or?

 

[dutchfire]

Panasonic will move its European headquarters from the UK to Amsterdam in October as Brexit approaches.

The aim is to avoid potential tax issues linked to the UK's decision to leave the EU, said Panasonic Europe's chief executive Laurent Abadie.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45351288

More overcrowding in Amsterdam!

 

[Arakhor]

Even Lord Mervyn King is now criticising the Government for being roundly incompetent. He's a former Governor of the Bank of England and a Brexit supporter, so it's not as if he's a "Project Fearist", "Remainiac" or any other silly term.

 

[Silurian]

I am sure we will see much more of this.
They have to save themselves.

 

[innonimatu]

Even Lord Mervyn King is now criticising the Government for being roundly incompetent. He's a former Governor of the Bank of England and a Brexit supporter, so it's not as if he's a "Project Fearist", "Remainiac" or any other silly term.

Mervyn King did knew about banking, and has been a (relatively) sane voice in the UK. In any case many people who favor brexit have been decrying the total incompetence of the government for months now.

 

[Arakhor]

Well, it is about the one thing we can still agree upon. That said, Lord King is one of the most high-profile Brexiters to express such thoughts.

 

[brennan]

This means that those three existing EEA members must feel really confident that the UK is not going to be a risk for smooth cooperation and implementation.

With our record?

 

[FriendlyFire]

We already hinted that we would block a UK EEA membership as far back as the Brexit campaign... It simply won't happen.
The UK could get their very own EEA though, or?

Norway dosnt have VETO power ?
Norway isnt really even suppose to be able to have a say within the EU but it did get its way with the ten year fishing qouta freeze.
But if there is a Hard brexit it will be harder for the UK to get back into the EEA as each country can veto new members

 

[Takhisis]

With our record?

The broken one?

 

[Cheetah]

Norway dosnt have VETO power ?
Norway isnt really even suppose to be able to have a say within the EU but it did get its way with the ten year fishing qouta freeze.
But if there is a Hard brexit it will be harder for the UK to get back into the EEA as each country can veto new members

we have veto powers over new EEA members, yes.

 

[Arakhor]

Here's another entrant in the field of "that's no surprise, guv'nor". What's May going to do now?

 

[brennan]

She was talking about not letting the EU bully her the other day, so I guess the next play is to complain that Barnier isn't being reasonable and should make more concessions to make Brexit work (i.e. to stop bullying her).

 

[Arakhor]

As far as public statements go, it was very reasonable. It's just a shame, apparently, that only sitting Tory MPs are allowed to set red lines.

 

[Hrothbern]

A new poll by YouGov among Union members shows that a clear majority wants to stay in the EU.
The poll found that members of Unite, the country’s biggest union, and Labour’s largest financial backer, now support staying in the EU by 61% to 35%. GMB’s members want the UK to stay in the EU by 55% to 37%. Unison members would opt to stay in the EU by 61% to 35%.
There is a similar support for a new referendum.

Union members think that standards of living, job opportunities and National Health Service will worsen with Brexit and want to prioritise trade over a self determined control of immigration.

Union members think standards of living will deteriorate as a result of Brexit by a margin of around four to one (Unite members by 55% to 11%, Unison members by 61% to 16%, and GMB members by 49% to 11%).
They also believe Brexit will worsen, not improve, job opportunities (Unite members by 57% to 16%, Unison members by 52% to 27%, and GMB members by 43% to 18%).
Despite claims that workers are overwhelmingly against immigration, members of all three unions want to prioritise trade over controlling immigration (Unison members by 68% to 22%, Unite members by 65% to 27%, and GMB members by 58% to 32%).
https://www.theguardian.com/politic...l-massive-backing-second-eu-brexit-referendum

The poll comes just before the annual Union Conference on Monday and two weeks before the annual Labour Conference.
The shadow chancellor John MacDonnell said (before the results of that poll) that if Labour would not be able to force new general elections in the coming months, he wanted to keep all options open including a referendum.

It looks to me that Corbyn aims to maximise electoral benefits to get in charge of the UK, but that his base does not want to risk a Brexit anymore, and justs wants to stay in the EU.
If the rank and file of the Labour party are going to support the rank and file of the Unions, Corbyn will be able to make the shift of position as well to accept staying in the EU.

IDK in how far Corbyn will follow the tradition to always want to renegotiate something special with the EU when opting to just stay in the EU if new general elections would put him in the PM seat. And IDK in how far May, if a new referendum would say "remain" will nevertheless try to improve on the Cameron negotiations.
The most stupid thing that could happen is that a new referendum would again leave too much open on what is voted for.

 

[uppi]

IDK in how far Corbyn will follow the tradition to always want to renegotiate something special with the EU when opting to just stay in the EU if new general elections would put him in the PM seat. And IDK in how far May, if a new referendum would say "remain" will nevertheless try to improve on the Cameron negotiations.

May or Corbyn might try, but at this point they'd be lucky if they got what Cameron would have gotten.

 

[Hrothbern]

May or Corbyn might try, but at this point they'd be lucky if they got what Cameron would have gotten.

My guess as well.

But since those Cameron negotiations I think two things have changed within the EU.

The first one on immigrants is a bit speculative from me: I think there is between Merkel, Macron and other leaders of EU members meanwhile an understanding on the immigrant-refugee issue that the EU should close the door with only a few exceptions. I think mainly because it gives to much fuel to "not in my backyard" populist sentiments, that undermine the trust and governmentability of members and the EU as a whole. Existing empathy within the EU population has to be massaged and channeled towards financial support in the countries where the immigrants and refugees are coming from. And ofc for various reasons this is executed as low profile as possible. This means that the immigrant issue of the UK reduces to a domestic EU immigrant issue (in so far that that is really an important issue anymore).

The second one is on the EU contribution of the UK. The contribution for members is currently roughly 1% of GDP of which 75% is used for projects all over the EU and the weaker countries benefitting more, to develop them to a higher level of economy.
The richer countries pay more than they get back, but they have more benefits from the bigger market. A rebate exists as a quick fix for a better balance.
With the Brexit, and missing the UK contribution, there is internally in the EU a felt need to use a new set of criteria resulting in another contribution and distribution of net funding, to get a better more fair balance between cost and benefits for both the richer countries (net cost vs more market) and the weaker countries (net funding vs being a market). It is already in the time of Thatcher that Thatcher critisized the UK companies for not better utilising the market potentials opened up by membership of the EU. In a perfect administration of the benefits per country of the open EU market, the EU contribution should be a tax on that benefit. But this is not feasible (yet). But I do think that the EU, in an overhaul of that system, would be able to come to a lower contribution for the UK without disruptive precedents: the whole system is reviewed for everybody.

But both possible changes cannot be negotiated openly during the Brexit process, nor do I have any confidence that anything negotiated with UK PM's, whoever that may be, is really confidential. => The UK is left in a position that it can only trust the EU that "something is likely to improve". Such uncertainties are in my view of diplomatic exchanges between mature and responsible leaders of countries quite normal, but with the increased level of populism today, undermining the representative democracies.... people like Boris Johnson..... IDK if the UK can handle that. It would mean public loss of face for the people in charge now, and a free of charge success for some PM after the current government.

 

[AmazonQueen]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/brex...be-just-weeks-away/ar-BBN8fXt?ocid=spartanntp

If its true that a deal is now reachable it will be interesting to see what it consists of. Fudge I suspect.

 

[Arakhor]

Meanwhile, Tory backbenchers are still threatening that they have the votes to destroy the Chequers plan in Parliament, whilst also insisting that they have no wish to bring down the Govt. Make up your mind, dears!