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Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Hrothbern, Mar 22, 2019.

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  1. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    I’m so sick and tired of this BS. What the heck kind of progressive princess on the pea types are you Corbyn bashers? Corbyn has a party split right down the middle on the issue of Brexit. He has been the only mature in the room for the entire damn debacle. He is not in power, he is in opposition. It’s not his damn job to come up with deals he is not even invited to negotiate on.

    Jeremy Corbyn, unlike the centrist laughing stock of the Labour Party has a background in proper social democratic endeavours. He has worked as a trade union organiser. In 1983 He became MP and the same year he fought an uphill battle for gay, bisexual and transgender rights and liberation. He campaigned against an apartheid and was arrested while demonstrating outside the high commission of South Africa in London. He supported the Miners’ strike. He worked for an independent Ireland and Palestinian rights in Israel. He worked against involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and later Syria. He saw right through the New Labour neoliberal farce defying the whip more than 400 times. He’s an actual and active member of like ten trade unions. He won the leadership elections of the LP by an overwhelming majority and then a second time again with an even larger margin. Meanwhile studies and analysis showed at least 75% of articles in common British media wilfully distorted and failed to represent the actual views of Corbyn on subjects. He has been continuously stabbed in the back at every possible turn by a party full of career MPs who rightfully fear for their cushy seats should actual labour policy be in demand again. He has been bullied, betrayed and ridiculed, and yet he carries on with the same grace and care he always shows to others.

    Now you tell us in some detail where Corbyn is so damn useless.
     
  2. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    It could end up anywhere between 30% and 40%, and I guess more closely to 40%. It will depend very much on the turnout per political segment of voters. The "why bother" with this EU hassle sentiment.

    The high Farage % will mainly be a problem for the Tories.
    A continuous sword of Damocles.

    As long as May was there as PM both the Tories and Labour incurred damages from internal divides.
    With May removed as PM (no cross-party talks or Parliament votes anymore), Labour is again in the leeway position and needs only to repeat "we need new elections to clear this mess up".
    The LibDems, Greens, SNP, etc all the time in the leeway position with repeating "we need a confirmatory referendum".

    => only the Tories are incurring further damage.
     
  3. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Well, one has to suppose that 40% Brexit party needs only 10% other pro-brexit parties/votes to be at 50% of the voters. Somehow it doesn't look like those for brexit are less than the 52% which set this procedure going.
     
  4. Hrothbern

    Hrothbern Warlord

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    Polls asking specifically about "what would you vote in a new referendum" say otherwise.

    But even then... it is and stays indeed a close call !!!

    (with anti-Brexit (and pro-Labour !) slowly growing, mainly because of demographical reasons: younger people have other opinions than older people).

    One way to look at this whole Brexit affair is that Party Politicians "just use" this Brexit referendum for their own political agendas.
    In order of priority: 1. their political careers, 2. their political factions, 3. their political party, 4. the country and people as they see it.
    "normally" this order of priority is less brutal and less visible.

    My take on the affair is extremely simple:
    The Britannia Unchained philosophy is in the process of taking over the Tory party since the GFC.
    In that process they unleashed a genius bigger than they could handle, and if everybody else plays his cards well, they end up with a fringe Tory party they can lead from the opposition benches.
    Will be a big blow for the Rupert Murdoch empire :king:
     
  5. mitsho

    mitsho Chieftain

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    Interesting (the rest of your post as well). If Labour is truly split, then it probably should be two parties. Are there official intra-Labour groups to determine how big the two sides are?

    I've seen a study about a comparison of party attitudes all over Europe, and Labour has been the most sceptic of the socialdemocratic group. Might post that later in the Europe thread in preparation of the results tonight. :)

    Careful, percentages rely heavily on turn-out. A single data point may not mean anything really. Additionally, European elections have always tended more to the extreme, as "they matter less than my national ones, so I can protest vote" further increased in the UK as they're not Majoritarian (FPTP). That is why it is important to have other avenues for getting the will of the public in-between elections. I wouldn't fear for 50+ % here, that's clearly a protest vote coming over from the tories.

    But let's first wait for the Europe-wide results tonight.
     
  6. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I think the blairites should just f off and go be part of the joke party known as the liberal democrats (which was instrumental in getting Cameron to be prime minister in the first place).
    I don't think they will, cause they know perfectly well they have no voting base to speak of and will be relegated (if even elected) to third rate mouthpieces.
     
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  7. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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  8. Ajidica

    Ajidica High Quality Person

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    Well, that escalated quickly!
    As much as I like Corbyn as a person and sympathize with many of his policies, he has not acquitted himself well as Leader of the Opposition. Apart from a flirtation with a Customs Union, Labour's entire Brexit plan has been one gigantic question mark. From my position across the Atlantic, it seems like just about all of the Tory's Brexit humiliations have been self-inflicted, ranging from Failing Grayling somehow managing to remain in office to the Maybot deciding to completely ignore Parliament when drafting the Withdrawal Agreement. Further, I was under the impression that one area UK opposition parties differed from US opposition is that in the UK, they put out well thought out 'alternative legislation' to give voters a clear example of how the opposition would do things 'better' than the current government. Unless the two primary UK news sources I look at (BBC and Guardian) are flat out ignoring Labour's policy proposals, it seems they are effectively nonexistent.
    As far as the Brexit 'adults in the room' go, it seems the only ones on Labour's side who are the 'adults in the room' are people like Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper, who Corbyn seems to be trying to keep away from actual policymaking because it would involve taking a stand on something. (In the words of Yes Minister: Controversial policies lose votes, courageous policies lose elections.) Simply waiting for the Tory scum to self-destruct in the hopes you get a General Election out of the wreckage seems unlikely to succeed given Labour losing ground to the LibDems, Greens, SNP/PC precisely because Labour has no idea what to do about Brexit besides a they don't want a flaming crash-out come October 31.
     
  9. brennan

    brennan Argumentative Brit

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    This is like complaining that Counsel for the defence are not helping the Prosecution.
     
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  10. Ironsided

    Ironsided Flower of happiness

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    Sorry Ajidica, I hope you trust me when I say it’s not personal. I find you to be a most reasonable poster. But Jeremy Corbyn has acquitted himself about as well as you can humanly ask a man in his position to do. The Labour Party has chosen not to break up the party in two. Trying to keep it open to both middle class and working class because their issues are fundamentally the same. That’s the party’s new agenda if anything – working class and their concerns are welcome again. For the first time in a generation you can actually sense some honesty about that.
     
  11. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    When will the british results be announced? (exit poll at least).
    According to exit polls here ND will win with (give or take 2) +7 points against the current ridiculous government.
     
  12. EnglishEdward

    EnglishEdward Chieftain

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    The Remainers, and other Pro EU posters, seem to assume that Jeremy Corbyn should lead his party on a long term anti-brexit campaign.

    The most likely consequence of that would be to lose 1/3 of the Labour vote in UK elections to neutral or pro-Leave candidates.

    I understand the logic that says that, by sitting on the fence, he is already losing more than one third of his voting
    base to pro Remain Green, Lib-Dem and Change UK at the European Election, but that is probably a very
    temporary loss; they will likely switch back after that election and support Labour in the next UK general election.

    .
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
  13. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    And keep in mind that the Brexit Party single issue is not just being pro-brexit. It is being pro-brexit without any deal: just leave.

    That is absolutely, totally, provably false, you just have to look back at howw this adgument has been used time and again. "Euroskepticism" has risen in the UK, which did had two referendums on furthering the process of "integration" that passed. If it were true that younger people would be "europhiles" and the "euroskeptics" would die out, they would be dead already. Instead their vote share grew. Perhaps, have you considered, as people grow older some grow wiser about how their community words or fails to work?

    This talk of new voters, of the leavers dying out, is bullcrap. It is delaying tactics by the remainers, self-deluded and egged on by their rivals within the EU. They fight they are putting up against brexit is wrecking the UK. It does not help them at all because their position cannot win, in the end they will lose, the UK will leave. But due to their constant obstructionism the UK is failing to fight the EU properly, and it is a fight. Just ask the Swiss how the EU wields its power around when it thinks it has an advantage. The UK needs to be united to this fight, everyone there loses from these divisions.

    The UK must leave in order to move forward out of this political deadlock. And it must leave without a deal. And it should have prepared for that from the beginning. Heve people there learned nothing from the greek trainwreck? When negotiating with the EU, the EU is your enemy and you cannot expect any favors of help from it. You must be prepared to walk out.



    Me, I think he should have led on a pro-brexit campaign. The UK needs more honesty about the EU in its political discussion.
    Corbyn could do it. If he wasn't constrained by some compromise not to split the party. I don't know if it was the right or wrong choice. But I do know that he is no beginner in politics, was always principled, and so I'm waiting out to see where his strategy leads. He's still the best possible hope for a competent PM to handle the rough times ahead for the UK, divided and left unprepared by the current incompetent government.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
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  14. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    Well, is the result in Britain known by now? :)
     
  15. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    Partial results are coming in. I don't trust The Guardian but they probably won't mess up in just reporting numbers. I'm getting the impression that Labour is losing more votes to the Brexit Party, outside of the London bubble, than it lost to the LD, judging from the results in London. The LD seem to have grabbed more votes from the conservatives than from Labour, whose discontented voters may have gone to the Greens or the motley band of blairites?

    As for the rest of the EU, the most relevant things are the failure of Macron in France and the success of the Lega in Italy. Macron will limp on but his european ambitions won't. The italians are likely to have an early election.

    On Italy's situation this piece on Salvini is worth reading I think, I'd like to hear what the italians here think of it.
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
  16. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/crjeqkdevwvt/the-uks-european-elections-2019

    Some results still to come in but SNP due to get 38% in Scotland, well ahead of everyone else.
    I'd say the results show UK just as polarised as after the referendum with hard Brexit and Remain parties making gains and the Brexit deal parties, Labour and Tories, suffering.
     
  17. innonimatu

    innonimatu Warlord

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    Just noticed that turnout in the UK was less than 40%. Does not allow for reading much from the results, even if they were not so equally split into the three fields of "yes/no/we can't decide" on brexit.

    Isn't 38% for the SNP in Scotland kind of low?
     
  18. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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  19. Kyriakos

    Kyriakos Alien spiral maker

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    I suppose Sargon of Akkad didn't get elected? :D
     
  20. AmazonQueen

    AmazonQueen Virago

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    Nope, UKIP didn't win a single seat.
    They and Change UK really should just shut down.
     
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