Brexit Thread VI - The Knockout Phase ?!?

[tjs282]

Also, is the woman in pink clothes supposed to be May?

Pretty sure May is the smoke currently evaporating from the chimney.

I'm guessing that the other Tories are lined up in order of 'likelihood to succeed May', hence BoJo is at the front of the queue...

 

[Hrothbern]

The average Brexit voter is over fifty and lives in the suburbs. I can't see them putting a brick through a window.

By good tradition of nationalism the older people drink beer and wine, and talk about "glory".... and the young people, with their whole life in front of them, are send to the battlefields to waste their blood and lifes.
I would wish I could easily find some nice pictures, to post here, of the local pubs and beerhouses I saw on that gathered once of the period of WW1.

 

[Kyriakos]

Pretty sure May is the smoke currently evaporating from the chimney.

Yes, obvious (unless it was about a previous tory leadership race). I just couldn't think of anyone else looking like that but May.
Also what made me question if the cartoon was about now (and not a past tory leadership race) was the absence of Mogg.

 

[EnglishEdward]

Once again, it is an instance of rules made in the UK, by the UK, and blamed on the EU by Brexiteers.

Polls can be made public after voting ends in other EU members, simply because their governments haven't made such laws there.

yes
We had yesterday evening an exit poll of Ipsos and today from Ipsos the analysis of the movements towards the Social Democrats and comparisons with the last elections, and ofc the % per party eurosceptic etc.
It's kind of a tradition here that we demand expect that we get during the full evening (and deep in the night) of the election the results and comments and experts and lose analysisses, and soon after fuller analysisses.

We have also the old tradition in the Netherlands that every (voter) citizen is allowed to be in the poll station where after the counting the result is directly made public to the audience: "hear, hear... etc"

So we had parallel to the Ipsos exit poll, a much broader "poll" based on the exact results of roughly 700 polling stations (of the in total roughly 9,000 polling stations).
Volunteers of that polling initiative were at the polling stations and communicated the results to a central point where our polling guru did put those data in his models to adjust for regional effects.
Based on this poll, from a sample of more than 500,000 voters, we got a better estimate, which shows BTW that the populist rightwing PVV of Geert Wilders could very well disappear in the final results (going down from 4 to 0 seats) and the populist rightwing FvD got 3 of the seats of Geert Wilders. The evangelist Christian parties, marked as eurosceptic in international articles stayed at 2 seats but has only 8% voters that want out of the EU, and the eurosceptic Socialistic Party, that had 2 seats got 0 seats. In general the more eurosceptic parties had lower turnout from "their" voters from past elections. In general the (ideological) leaderships of eurosceptic parties are more eurosceptic than their voters. They get disconnected at the moment on that topic.
And the Social Democrats are certainly the biggest party going from 3 in 2014 to 5 or more likely 6 now.

Thank you both for your prompt and forthright replies.

I had wondered what the actual practice was across the water,
but I had no time then to search for articles and google translate

I am now undecided whether to blame:

(a) UK Euro-syncophants unecessarily bending over backwards in their desire to please
(these are the ones who gold plated other legistlation without considering its extra costs).

OR

(b) UK Euro-imperialists who see the EU as a sort of substitute for the British Empire
(The UK should be at the heart of Europe, take the lead and reform the EU nonsense sort)
such that current domestic rules should automatically apply to European Elections.

Possbly due to a combination of both.

 

[Hrothbern]

Thank you both for your prompt and forthright replies.

I had wondered what the actual practice was across the water,
but I had no time then to search for articles and google translate

I am now undecided whether to blame:

(a) UK Euro-syncophants unecessarily bending over backwards in their desire to please
(these are the ones who gold plated other legistlation without considering its extra costs).

OR

(b) UK Euro-imperialists who see the EU as a sort of substitute for the British Empire
(The UK should be at the heart of Europe, take the lead and reform the EU nonsense sort)
such that current domestic rules should automatically apply to European Elections.

Possbly due to a combination of both.

You do have to participate in the bargaining process with an open mind for the characteristics of all other players in that process. Diplomats & sherpas.
And not to forget a chain of trust between those diplomats & sherpas and leading politicians that must be willing to learn from them & do not overrule the experts the first moment that they "themselves" get into action (entrenching themselves in newsmedia statements before having a clue into what they engage into. Not only an issue BTW of UK politicians).

To get the most out of a piece of machinery you have to know what it can and where it makes sense to kick it.
The same with complex regulation systems and administrations, whether applied at national and EU level... or big civil society organisations or (big) companies.

Here an article (in the election avalanche here on the EU related to other EU members) on how Denmark "handled" the EU.
https://nos.nl/artikel/2286244-denen-zijn-super-europeanen-maar-wel-op-hun-eigen-manier.html
IDK if you can open that link in google translate mode, but if so well worth reading.

 

[Kyriakos]

(a) UK Euro-syncophants

(clears throat) sycophants

 

[AmazonQueen]

Thank you both for your prompt and forthright replies.

I had wondered what the actual practice was across the water,
but I had no time then to search for articles and google translate

I am now undecided whether to blame:

(a) UK Euro-syncophants unecessarily bending over backwards in their desire to please
(these are the ones who gold plated other legistlation without considering its extra costs).

OR

(b) UK Euro-imperialists who see the EU as a sort of substitute for the British Empire
(The UK should be at the heart of Europe, take the lead and reform the EU nonsense sort)
such that current domestic rules should automatically apply to European Elections.

Possbly due to a combination of both.

Or it could just be down to over-protective lawyers.
After the US we are the most litigious country in the world.

 

[Kyriakos]

So, is it known/estimated what the results will be?
I heard something about the Brexit party being at 35%. Pretty serious.

 

[really]

Nobody in the UK bothered to do an exit poll or If they did they aren't allowed share it under UK law.

We won't know until the results are published after 10 this evening.

 

[Ironsided]

At least David Hameron realized his uselessness and scarpered before wasting time. The Maybot wasted months trying to polish a turd that she knew nobody wanted and then faffed around before literally begging the European Union an extension in the hope somebody else would come up with a better idea. It is a high bar to be more useless than Corbyn, but somehow, the Maybot managed.

I’m so sick and tired of this BS. What the heck kind of progressive princess on the pea types are you Corbyn bashers? Corbyn has a party split right down the middle on the issue of Brexit. He has been the only mature in the room for the entire damn debacle. He is not in power, he is in opposition. It’s not his damn job to come up with deals he is not even invited to negotiate on.

Jeremy Corbyn, unlike the centrist laughing stock of the Labour Party has a background in proper social democratic endeavours. He has worked as a trade union organiser. In 1983 He became MP and the same year he fought an uphill battle for gay, bisexual and transgender rights and liberation. He campaigned against an apartheid and was arrested while demonstrating outside the high commission of South Africa in London. He supported the Miners’ strike. He worked for an independent Ireland and Palestinian rights in Israel. He worked against involvement in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and later Syria. He saw right through the New Labour neoliberal farce defying the whip more than 400 times. He’s an actual and active member of like ten trade unions. He won the leadership elections of the LP by an overwhelming majority and then a second time again with an even larger margin. Meanwhile studies and analysis showed at least 75% of articles in common British media wilfully distorted and failed to represent the actual views of Corbyn on subjects. He has been continuously stabbed in the back at every possible turn by a party full of career MPs who rightfully fear for their cushy seats should actual labour policy be in demand again. He has been bullied, betrayed and ridiculed, and yet he carries on with the same grace and care he always shows to others.

Now you tell us in some detail where Corbyn is so damn useless.

 

[Hrothbern]

So, is it known/estimated what the results will be?
I heard something about the Brexit party being at 35%. Pretty serious.

It could end up anywhere between 30% and 40%, and I guess more closely to 40%. It will depend very much on the turnout per political segment of voters. The "why bother" with this EU hassle sentiment.

The high Farage % will mainly be a problem for the Tories.
A continuous sword of Damocles.

As long as May was there as PM both the Tories and Labour incurred damages from internal divides.
With May removed as PM (no cross-party talks or Parliament votes anymore), Labour is again in the leeway position and needs only to repeat "we need new elections to clear this mess up".
The LibDems, Greens, SNP, etc all the time in the leeway position with repeating "we need a confirmatory referendum".

=> only the Tories are incurring further damage.

 

[Kyriakos]

It could end up anywhere between 30% and 40%, and I guess more closely to 40%. It will depend very much on the turnout per political segment of voters. The "why bother" with this EU hassle sentiment.

The high Farage % will mainly be a problem for the Tories.
A continuous sword of Damocles.

As long as May was there as PM both the Tories and Labour incurred damages from internal divides.
With May removed as PM (no cross-party talks or Parliament votes anymore), Labour is again in the leeway position and needs only to repeat "we need new elections to clear this mess up".
The LibDems, Greens, SNP, etc all the time in the leeway position with repeating "we need a confirmatory referendum".

=> only the Tories are incurring further damage.

Well, one has to suppose that 40% Brexit party needs only 10% other pro-brexit parties/votes to be at 50% of the voters. Somehow it doesn't look like those for brexit are less than the 52% which set this procedure going.

 

[Hrothbern]

Well, one has to suppose that 40% Brexit party needs only 10% other pro-brexit parties/votes to be at 50% of the voters. Somehow it doesn't look like those for brexit are less than the 52% which set this procedure going.

Polls asking specifically about "what would you vote in a new referendum" say otherwise.

But even then... it is and stays indeed a close call !!!

(with anti-Brexit (and pro-Labour !) slowly growing, mainly because of demographical reasons: younger people have other opinions than older people).

One way to look at this whole Brexit affair is that Party Politicians "just use" this Brexit referendum for their own political agendas.
In order of priority: 1. their political careers, 2. their political factions, 3. their political party, 4. the country and people as they see it.
"normally" this order of priority is less brutal and less visible.

My take on the affair is extremely simple:
The Britannia Unchained philosophy is in the process of taking over the Tory party since the GFC.
In that process they unleashed a genius bigger than they could handle, and if everybody else plays his cards well, they end up with a fringe Tory party they can lead from the opposition benches.
Will be a big blow for the Rupert Murdoch empire

 

[mitsho]

Corbyn has a party split right down the middle on the issue of Brexit. L

Interesting (the rest of your post as well). If Labour is truly split, then it probably should be two parties. Are there official intra-Labour groups to determine how big the two sides are?

I've seen a study about a comparison of party attitudes all over Europe, and Labour has been the most sceptic of the socialdemocratic group. Might post that later in the Europe thread in preparation of the results tonight.

Well, one has to suppose that 40% Brexit party needs only 10% other pro-brexit parties/votes to be at 50% of the voters. Somehow it doesn't look like those for brexit are less than the 52% which set this procedure going.

Careful, percentages rely heavily on turn-out. A single data point may not mean anything really. Additionally, European elections have always tended more to the extreme, as "they matter less than my national ones, so I can protest vote" further increased in the UK as they're not Majoritarian (FPTP). That is why it is important to have other avenues for getting the will of the public in-between elections. I wouldn't fear for 50+ % here, that's clearly a protest vote coming over from the tories.

But let's first wait for the Europe-wide results tonight.

 

[Kyriakos]

Interesting (the rest of your post as well). If Labour is truly split, then it probably should be two parties. Are there official intra-Labour groups to determine how big the two sides are?

I think the blairites should just f off and go be part of the joke party known as the liberal democrats (which was instrumental in getting Cameron to be prime minister in the first place).
I don't think they will, cause they know perfectly well they have no voting base to speak of and will be relegated (if even elected) to third rate mouthpieces.

 

[Kyriakos]

 

[Ajidica]

I’m so sick and tired of this BS. What the heck kind of progressive princess on the pea types are you Corbyn bashers? Corbyn has a party split right down the middle on the issue of Brexit. He has been the only mature in the room for the entire damn debacle. He is not in power, he is in opposition. It’s not his damn job to come up with deals he is not even invited to negotiate on.

Well, that escalated quickly!
As much as I like Corbyn as a person and sympathize with many of his policies, he has not acquitted himself well as Leader of the Opposition. Apart from a flirtation with a Customs Union, Labour's entire Brexit plan has been one gigantic question mark. From my position across the Atlantic, it seems like just about all of the Tory's Brexit humiliations have been self-inflicted, ranging from Failing Grayling somehow managing to remain in office to the Maybot deciding to completely ignore Parliament when drafting the Withdrawal Agreement. Further, I was under the impression that one area UK opposition parties differed from US opposition is that in the UK, they put out well thought out 'alternative legislation' to give voters a clear example of how the opposition would do things 'better' than the current government. Unless the two primary UK news sources I look at (BBC and Guardian) are flat out ignoring Labour's policy proposals, it seems they are effectively nonexistent.
As far as the Brexit 'adults in the room' go, it seems the only ones on Labour's side who are the 'adults in the room' are people like Keir Starmer and Yvette Cooper, who Corbyn seems to be trying to keep away from actual policymaking because it would involve taking a stand on something. (In the words of Yes Minister: Controversial policies lose votes, courageous policies lose elections.) Simply waiting for the Tory scum to self-destruct in the hopes you get a General Election out of the wreckage seems unlikely to succeed given Labour losing ground to the LibDems, Greens, SNP/PC precisely because Labour has no idea what to do about Brexit besides a they don't want a flaming crash-out come October 31.

 

[brennan]

This is like complaining that Counsel for the defence are not helping the Prosecution.

 

[Ironsided]

Sorry Ajidica, I hope you trust me when I say it’s not personal. I find you to be a most reasonable poster. But Jeremy Corbyn has acquitted himself about as well as you can humanly ask a man in his position to do. The Labour Party has chosen not to break up the party in two. Trying to keep it open to both middle class and working class because their issues are fundamentally the same. That’s the party’s new agenda if anything – working class and their concerns are welcome again. For the first time in a generation you can actually sense some honesty about that.

 

[Kyriakos]

When will the british results be announced? (exit poll at least).
According to exit polls here ND will win with (give or take 2) +7 points against the current ridiculous government.