COVID - A light on the horizon?

[Akka]

It does look like we are doing fairly well, in most countries at least:

Obviously, with better knowledge of the disease, better treatment exists to alleviate the problems and lower the death ratio.
But there is also two main reasons for the lower rates :
1) As Kyriakos said, people who die from Covid are of course removed from the pool of people who would die if contracting it.
2) Mainly : the higher death ratio comes from a time where we weren't yet testing people. Most cases were simply "how many people end up in hospital", ignoring the large majority of asymptomatic and low-level cases.

 

[Takhisis]

^Well, Brazil for one is breaking its daily death record yet again (1840 today) and has recorded for a fifth consecutive day its highest weekly rolling average of deaths.

Meanwhile, Bolsonaro declares that there won't ever be a lockdown as long as he has a say in it.

 

[Mega Tsunami]

Something we all knew – obesity and covid deaths go hand in hand. Now the World Obesity Federation has confirmed it.


UK's Covid death toll fuelled by its obesity problem, say experts
Britain was found to have the third highest death rate in the world, and the fourth highest obesity rate

Britain's Covid death toll has been fuelled by its obesity epidemic, experts have said, as global research finds nine in 10 fatalities occurred in countries with a weight problem.

Britain was found to have the third highest death rate in the world and the fourth highest obesity rate, with more than two in three adults overweight or obese.

The study by the World Obesity Federation examined almost 100 countries and found that 2.2 million of 2.5 million deaths occurred in countries with high levels of obesity. Overall, death rates were found to be 10 times higher in countries where more than half the population was overweight.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...th-toll-fuelled-obesity-epidemic-say-experts/

Rest here:

Spoiler :

Obesity has already been found to increase the risk of death from Covid-19 by around 50 per cent, as well as increasing the risk of severe disease, and the World Health Organisation said the report should act as a "wake-up call" for governments to tackle their nations' obesity problems.
The country with the lowest Covid death rate was Vietnam, which has one of the lowest levels of excess weight in its population, with 18 per cent overweight. Japan and Singapore were also singled out for their low levels of obesity and deaths from Covid.


In 2008, Japan introduced the "Metabo law", which requires everyone between the ages of 40 and 74 to get annual measurements of their waist circumference. Employers of those with waistlines above approved limits are required to provide weight loss classes.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organisation, said: "This report must act as a wake-up call to governments globally. The correlation between obesity and mortality rates from Covid-19 is clear and compelling.

"Investment in public health and coordinated, international action to tackle the root causes of obesity is one of the best ways for countries to build resilience in health systems post-pandemic. We urge all countries to seize this moment."

Dr Tim Lobstein, the author of the report, senior policy adviser to the World Obesity Federation and visiting professor at the University of Sydney, said: "We now know that an overweight population is the next pandemic waiting to happen.

"Look at countries like Japan and South Korea where they have very low levels of Covid-19 deaths as well as very low levels of adult obesity. They have prioritised public health across a range of measures, including population weight, and it has paid off in the pandemic.

"Governments have been negligent and ignored the economic value of a healthy population at their peril. For the last decade they have failed to tackle obesity, despite setting themselves targets at United Nations meetings.”
Johanna Ralston, the chief executive of the World Obesity Federation, said: "The failure to address the root causes of obesity over many decades is clearly responsible for hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths."

Tom Watson, the former deputy leader of the Labour Party, who lost eight stone and reversed type two diabetes and has become an anti-obesity campaigner, said: "This report is sobering. Again and again, public health experts shouted from the rooftops about the risks of obese populations.
"Failure to keep pubic policy promises on tackling obesity has cost many lives. It's a stern message for grieving families and people who have lost jobs and income to hear: much this crisis was preventable. Surely now, the lesson for post-pandemic Britain is a massive shakeup to public health policy?"

The report also suggests the economic costs of preventing health services being over-run through lockdowns could have been significantly mitigated if governments had tackled population weight issues before the pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund has projected that the world will lose $28 trillion in economic output worldwide up to 2025, as a result of health problems. Of this, at least $6 trillion will be directly attributable to the issue of populations living with excess weight, researchers said.

 

[Zardnaar]

Something we all knew – obesity and covid deaths go hand in hand. Now the World Obesity Federation has confirmed it.


UK's Covid death toll fuelled by its obesity problem, say experts
Britain was found to have the third highest death rate in the world, and the fourth highest obesity rate

Britain's Covid death toll has been fuelled by its obesity epidemic, experts have said, as global research finds nine in 10 fatalities occurred in countries with a weight problem.

Britain was found to have the third highest death rate in the world and the fourth highest obesity rate, with more than two in three adults overweight or obese.

The study by the World Obesity Federation examined almost 100 countries and found that 2.2 million of 2.5 million deaths occurred in countries with high levels of obesity. Overall, death rates were found to be 10 times higher in countries where more than half the population was overweight.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...th-toll-fuelled-obesity-epidemic-say-experts/

Rest here:

Spoiler :

Obesity has already been found to increase the risk of death from Covid-19 by around 50 per cent, as well as increasing the risk of severe disease, and the World Health Organisation said the report should act as a "wake-up call" for governments to tackle their nations' obesity problems.
The country with the lowest Covid death rate was Vietnam, which has one of the lowest levels of excess weight in its population, with 18 per cent overweight. Japan and Singapore were also singled out for their low levels of obesity and deaths from Covid.


In 2008, Japan introduced the "Metabo law", which requires everyone between the ages of 40 and 74 to get annual measurements of their waist circumference. Employers of those with waistlines above approved limits are required to provide weight loss classes.

Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organisation, said: "This report must act as a wake-up call to governments globally. The correlation between obesity and mortality rates from Covid-19 is clear and compelling.

"Investment in public health and coordinated, international action to tackle the root causes of obesity is one of the best ways for countries to build resilience in health systems post-pandemic. We urge all countries to seize this moment."

Dr Tim Lobstein, the author of the report, senior policy adviser to the World Obesity Federation and visiting professor at the University of Sydney, said: "We now know that an overweight population is the next pandemic waiting to happen.

"Look at countries like Japan and South Korea where they have very low levels of Covid-19 deaths as well as very low levels of adult obesity. They have prioritised public health across a range of measures, including population weight, and it has paid off in the pandemic.

"Governments have been negligent and ignored the economic value of a healthy population at their peril. For the last decade they have failed to tackle obesity, despite setting themselves targets at United Nations meetings.”
Johanna Ralston, the chief executive of the World Obesity Federation, said: "The failure to address the root causes of obesity over many decades is clearly responsible for hundreds of thousands of preventable deaths."

Tom Watson, the former deputy leader of the Labour Party, who lost eight stone and reversed type two diabetes and has become an anti-obesity campaigner, said: "This report is sobering. Again and again, public health experts shouted from the rooftops about the risks of obese populations.
"Failure to keep pubic policy promises on tackling obesity has cost many lives. It's a stern message for grieving families and people who have lost jobs and income to hear: much this crisis was preventable. Surely now, the lesson for post-pandemic Britain is a massive shakeup to public health policy?"

The report also suggests the economic costs of preventing health services being over-run through lockdowns could have been significantly mitigated if governments had tackled population weight issues before the pandemic.

The International Monetary Fund has projected that the world will lose $28 trillion in economic output worldwide up to 2025, as a result of health problems. Of this, at least $6 trillion will be directly attributable to the issue of populations living with excess weight, researchers said.

They'll be complaining about body shaming next.

 

[Hrothbern]

They'll be complaining about body shaming next.

For sure
But if a taboo is severely hindering what you ought to do... is that not indicating an immature culture to handle something ?
The continuous low inflammation level caused by obesity is simply bad for mental and physical health.
And to put the finger one root level deeper: bad air from fine dust particles (industry, planes, car fuel, car tires) and increasing pollen from (industrial & agricultural) nitrogen are inflammating at low level continuously your body causing more obesity, cancer, diabetes-2 and autoimmune disorders as well. Just like junk food.
If you cannot say that obesity is bad... how can you say that these root factors are bad and worth tackling ?

 

[EnglishEdward]

UK also has a higher proportion of BAME people, than
the EU, who are disproportionately impacted by Covid.

 

[Hrothbern]

UK also has a higher proportion of BAME people, than
the EU, who are disproportionately impacted by Covid.

And obesity of the Chinese ethnic group in the UK is lowest just like their fatality rate being 65% of average White English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British in UK
from ONS
https://www.ethnicity-facts-figures.service.gov.uk/health/diet-and-exercise/overweight-adults/latest
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nicgroupenglandandwales/2march2020to15may2020

No causality proven by that ofc, but it is striking.

 

[GinandTonic]

But also the vaccine take up in the BAME community is woeful. Afrocarribean is something like have that of white British IIRC.

 

[Samson]

But also the vaccine take up in the BAME community is woeful. Afrocarribean is something like have that of white British IIRC.

Wow. I did not get it was so stark.

|Cumulative doses to Feb 2nd (excluding unknown ethnicity)|% of population (England 2011)|% of vaccination total (excluding unknown ethnicity)|Population by ethnicity (derived from census 2011 and ONS population projections)|Proportion vaccinated so far (cumulative vaccinations/population)|White ethnicity multiplier (% white people vaccinated/%BME groups vaccinated)|% difference (lower) between White groups' vaccination rate and BME vaccination rates|% likelihood of BME groups having vaccine compared to white groups
White|7017127|85.5|90.60%|48726082|0.144| | |
Mixed|61981|2.3|0.80%|1310760|0.047|3.05|67.00%|33.00%
Asian|410986|7.8|5.30%|4445186|0.092|1.56|36.00%|64.00%
Black|135243|3.5|1.70%|1994635|0.068|2.12|53.00%|47.00%
Other|115682|1|1.50%|569896|0.203| | |
Total|7741019| | | | | | |

 

[Farm Boy]

They'll be complaining about body shaming next.

Which is a pretty horsehocky thing to do.

 

[EnglishEdward]

And obesity of the Chinese ethnic group in the UK is lowest just like their fatality rate being 65% of average White English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British in UK
from ONS

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nicgroupenglandandwales/2march2020to15may2020

I am reading its

Table 5 Age-standardised mortality rates for deaths involving COVID-19
with 95% confidence intervals by sex and ethnic group, per 100,000 people, England
and Wales, deaths occurring between 2 March and 15 May 2020

Chinese 119.5

White 87.0

differently.

 

[GinandTonic]

Wow. I did not get it was so stark.

I'm not sure what to do about it. A metric poop ton of ads aimed at this group. Hell the Asians are overrepresented in medicine.

 

[thetrooper]

@red_elk does your pregnancy start to show?

 

[Hrothbern]

I am reading its






differently.

From https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...nicgroupenglandandwales/2march2020to15may2020
Chinese are 0.4% of Covid fatalities and 0.6% of Covid fatalities
White English/Welsh/Scottish/Northern Irish/British are 84.7% of Covid fatalities and 80.9% of population.

So yes... I deliberately ignored reported confirmed covid tested people and took the more high level (total population and Covid deaths) to eliminate cultural difference in felt necessity-willingness to get tested.
IDK how Chinese UK citizens are but I do know that Dutch Chinese citizens want to do less in general with any government interface than average autochtone Dutch citizens. They prefer their own world where possible or not clearly disadvantageous.

 

[Hrothbern]

Some info on a big poll and analysis in NL on the willingness of the population to pay a price for a QALY ('quality adjusted life year') regarding Covid.
As context:
For medical care the standard applied for regular health care in NL is 80,000 Euro per QALY, whereby doctors, hospital teams are allowed some freedom. Big Pharma continuously trying to stretch that to a higher amount with drugs pricing.

You can use money as yardstick, but our first need in May last year was a comparative yardstick between several choices:

May 2020 poll (30,000 people):
People attached more societal value in having contact shops (haircut, nailshop, etc) opened and more visitors at home than opening the hospitality sector.


Then the first wave had passed and the question was "what know... how do we steer ?"
September 2020 poll (30,000 people):
As comparative yardstick:

The implied average (in the Dutch society) willingness to sacrifice in order to avoid one fatality directly or indirectly related to COVID-19 equals (rounded to the nearest integer):

• 10 cases of lasting physical injuries;
• 15 cases of lasting mental health problems;
• 18 children with lasting educational disadvantage;
• 77 households with long term decline in net income.

As money yardstick per fatality (not per QALY but that derives from it): A willingness to pay 2.32 Million Euro per prevented fatality.

In terms of the willingness to accept a higher (one-off) tax to help avoid fatalities, we find that the average Dutch citizen weighs an additional 10,000 fatalities as heavily as a one-off tax increase per household of 2,912 Euro. This implies that Dutch society as a whole (which consists of approximately eight million households) is willing to sacrifice a total additional one-off tax burden of approximately 2.32 million Euros.

This is close to the existing standard used for road traffic accidents of 2.61 Million Euro per prevented fatality

This ‘value of life’ estimate allows us to indirectly validate our DCE: the Dutch Road Authority [51] employs a value of life metric of 2.61 million Euro in the context of road safety analysis, which is in line with our results. Note that the average life lost in road accidents is likely to be that of a younger person than the average life lost due to COVID-19 directly or indirectly, e.g. due to postponed treatment–this may partially explain that our estimate is lower than the official number used by Dutch authorities. A meta-study done by the OECD [52] reports a median (across studies) value of life of 2.8 million Euros, which also is of the same order of magnitude as our result. As a final indirect validation of our estimates, it is worth pointing out that the factor ten which we obtain between the weight of a fatality versus the weight of a lasting physical injury is about the same as the factor used for Dutch road safety analysis [51].

https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238683

The current policy is basically more ethically based on to do what is necessary as long as this is bearable for the population at large.
I guess we end up with this Covid pandemy at a higher price than the numbers here mentioned.
The preventred fatalities so far with the lockdown regime have been estimated by the RIVM at 40,000 which would justify on that 2.32 Million per fatality approx 100 Billion Euro cost.

 

[Samson]

This bit sounds incredibly rational:

average Dutch citizen weighs an additional 10,000 fatalities as heavily as a one-off tax increase per household of 2,912 Euro

But then there is this madness, haircuts before a pint down the pub!!!!!!

People attached more societal value in having contact shops (haircut, nailshop, etc) opened and more visitors at home than opening the hospitality sector

 

[Hrothbern]

This bit sounds incredibly rational:

But then there is this madness, haircuts before a pint down the pub!!!!!!

The poll questionaire is shown in the link. You have to fill in something by categories and that 2,912 Euro is an average.

Well... what age groups have pints in pubs ? or a Chardonnay at a terrace with our "famous" bitterbal ?
Many like to be at home most of the time...
The average Dutch has a grey car, drives 3.1 times a year to IKEA, has 1.3 bicycle, 5.4 jeans, washes his pants every 4 days (younger people every 3 days, older people 6 days), and eats throughout the year 47 Easter chocolate eggs.

 

[red_elk]

@red_elk does your pregnancy start to show?

Google says weight gain and absence of menstruation are certain early signs. Sounds scary.

 

[Takhisis]

*gasp* red_elk, you're menopausic!

UK's Covid death toll fuelled by its obesity problem

While over the border in Brazil the hospital infrastructure is beginning to collapse, we here are ruled by people who used to oast that rising diabetes and obesity were a sign that the country was prospering under their rule…

 

[Arwon]

that 2.2 million of 2.5 million deaths occurred in countries with high levels of obesity.

I'm not sure this constitutes causation, just quietly