Coronavirus: The Great Unmasking

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They did it again!

https://twitter.com/bhrenton/status/1429627814958014464

It's time to check in on South Dakota, which has seen a 200% increase in Covid-19 cases in the past two weeks — the highest growth rate in the nation. What happened two weeks ago? The Sturgis motorcycle rally. Quick thread on the data:

While nowhere close to the peak of last winter, cases in the state have started to increase after weeks of minimal case growth

Hospitalizations are on the rise as well, reaching levels not seen since May.

In Meade County, where Sturgis is located, we have started to see a sharp spike in cases, similar to the time around the rally last year. 38% of county residents are fully vaccinated, below the statewide average of 48%.

South Dakota ranks 27th for the percent of its residents fully vaccinated.

Meade County is ranked second in South Dakota counties for new cases.

Case growth in Meade County could spill over into neighboring counties as well.


As @ashishkjha notes, South Dakota's high level of population immunity through previous infection may not be enough to withstand the Delta variant and the effects of the Sturgis motorcycle rally. We will continue to monitor, but trends are not promising.



The Motorcycle rally did it twice.

So as Florida maybe burns out of cases in a few weeks, the COVID villain spot will switch back to Kristi Noem, as she lets COVID rid through her state.

And both her and Desantis only narrowly won their governor races in 2018.
 
Many senior virus experts criticized her work and dismissed it out of hand, saying she did not have the expertise to speak on the subject, that she was maligning their specialty and that her statements would alienate China, hampering any future investigations.

Some called her a conspiracy theorist. Others dismissed her ideas because she is a postdoctoral fellow, a junior scientist. One virus expert, Benjamin Neuman, called her hypothesis “goofy.”

A Chinese news outlet accused her of “filthy behavior and a lack of basic academic ethics,” and readers piled on that she was a “race-traitor,” because of her Chinese ancestry.

“There were days and weeks when I was extremely afraid, and many days I didn’t sleep,” Chan, 32, said recently at an outdoor cafe, not far from the Broad Institute.

from yahoo and the NYT about what happened to a researcher for leaving open the possibility the bug was accidentally released from the lab.
 
630,000 dead vs. 26 dead.

Those poor New Zealanders! I hope they can recover quickly.

You can adjust for population size.

1638 would be USA number proportionally.

Booze no big deal. Then again I bought 20 litres of Baltika on lockdown.
 
Would this include the beloved Argentine government which has simultaneously announced that we now have Delta among us and also that football stadia will now be re-opened and foreign tourists welcomed?

Public authorities everywhere who bother about making plans for the pandemic now seem to want people infected. That's the new strategy.

Every single one but China's and New Zeland's has been led by fools at some point, and once fallen into the covid hole it's very difficult to get out. Vietnam may be trying to suppress again. In Australia most states have good governments, but the federal government is hell bent on having all the australians infected. The problem with that cunning plan is, people don't just get infected once and are done with it. What we know leads us to believe people will get reinfected, again and again. The antibodies wane and protection against new infections disappears - even without viral mutation.

But mutation happens. The virus is still evolving for worse. Immune escape is nearly complete with some of the delta lineages, there's dozens of them already. Vaccines cannot keep up with the virus, neither in logistics and rate of vaccination, nor in newer vaccines against immune-escaping escaped variants. Vaccinating people with a third dose of the same vaccine is foolishness, next month the vaccinated will probably be up against a new variant capable of overcoming those antibodies. Then how will they be gotten to accept a fourth vaccine for the delta? And that vaccine anyway won't be for this delta or whatever greek letter but for one back from May or June.

We could hope that Biden, after ending a war against the beliefs and interests of all the elite of Washington, might fire Fauci, rightfully blaming him for this wave there, and announce a change of strategy saying "the USA is not less that China, we can do what they did". But it's a pipe dread, the guy will be lucky to survive the ongoing attacks.
No other of the countries currently ruled by fools will change policy this year. The people just don't have the confidence to demand the country go it alone. And the governments are in too deep with being members of the "international community" and aligning with the suicidal policies of the others. So outside China and the outliers that decided on a different strategy early on, everyone imitates the US government. And outlier Australia tries to move that way too.

There's the "hermit" countries, sure. North Korea, not that anyone pays them attention, probably has managed to suppress covid like China. Russia or Cuba or Iran could politically have decided to go it alone, but their governments chose badly also. I bet Putin must be kicking himself for the bad decision, not that he'll ever admit it. Cuba was bankrupt without tourism and foolishly decided to "open", not it's bankrupt and covidose! Iran probably has excessively porous borders and a weak state incapable of clamping down on cases that manage to enter. And that's it, I don't think there are any others capable of changing policy.
Unless the US changes strategy the world will continue down this path until the virus gets to 10% case fatality rate. Then the impossible becomes possible. If it never gets there but just keeps coming year after year we all get -10 years of live or so due to accumulated damage from repeated infections along life. Or we luck out and the virus gets less deadly with a stable dominant variety serving as a kind of permanent vaccine, and lose fewer years? Or good treatments are put into use more perchance than by public sponsoring. The point is, it depends on luck, it's the XXI century supposedly of the technical wonders and most of the governments in the world are acting like they have no agency to end a pandemic!
 
Public authorities everywhere who bother about making plans for the pandemic now seem to want people infected. That's the new strategy.

Every single one but China's and New Zeland's has been led by fools at some point, and once fallen into the covid hole it's very difficult to get out. Vietnam may be trying to suppress again. In Australia most states have good governments, but the federal government is hell bent on having all the australians infected. The problem with that cunning plan is, people don't just get infected once and are done with it. What we know leads us to believe people will get reinfected, again and again. The antibodies wane and protection against new infections disappears - even without viral mutation.

But mutation happens. The virus is still evolving for worse. Immune escape is nearly complete with some of the delta lineages, there's dozens of them already. Vaccines cannot keep up with the virus, neither in logistics and rate of vaccination, nor in newer vaccines against immune-escaping escaped variants. Vaccinating people with a third dose of the same vaccine is foolishness, next month the vaccinated will probably be up against a new variant capable of overcoming those antibodies. Then how will they be gotten to accept a fourth vaccine for the delta? And that vaccine anyway won't be for this delta or whatever greek letter but for one back from May or June.

We could hope that Biden, after ending a war against the beliefs and interests of all the elite of Washington, might fire Fauci, rightfully blaming him for this wave there, and announce a change of strategy saying "the USA is not less that China, we can do what they did". But it's a pipe dread, the guy will be lucky to survive the ongoing attacks.
No other of the countries currently ruled by fools will change policy this year. The people just don't have the confidence to demand the country go it alone. And the governments are in too deep with being members of the "international community" and aligning with the suicidal policies of the others. So outside China and the outliers that decided on a different strategy early on, everyone imitates the US government. And outlier Australia tries to move that way too.

There's the "hermit" countries, sure. North Korea, not that anyone pays them attention, probably has managed to suppress covid like China. Russia or Cuba or Iran could politically have decided to go it alone, but their governments chose badly also. I bet Putin must be kicking himself for the bad decision, not that he'll ever admit it. Cuba was bankrupt without tourism and foolishly decided to "open", not it's bankrupt and covidose! Iran probably has excessively porous borders and a weak state incapable of clamping down on cases that manage to enter. And that's it, I don't think there are any others capable of changing policy.
Unless the US changes strategy the world will continue down this path until the virus gets to 10% case fatality rate. Then the impossible becomes possible. If it never gets there but just keeps coming year after year we all get -10 years of live or so due to accumulated damage from repeated infections along life. Or we luck out and the virus gets less deadly with a stable dominant variety serving as a kind of permanent vaccine, and lose fewer years? Or good treatments are put into use more perchance than by public sponsoring. The point is, it depends on luck, it's the XXI century supposedly of the technical wonders and most of the governments in the world are acting like they have no agency to end a pandemic!

There's a few microstates in Pacific, Australia might be able to turn things around as Scomo's polling numbers are down due to current outbreak.
 
We could hope that Biden, after ending a war against the beliefs and interests of all the elite of Washington, might fire Fauci, rightfully blaming him for this wave there, and announce a change of strategy saying "the USA is not less that China, we can do what they did".
:lol:
To even imagine that this might happen is beyond silly. You clearly do understand governance in the US.
 
We could hope that Biden, after ending a war against the beliefs and interests of all the elite of Washington, might fire Fauci, rightfully blaming him for this wave there,
Now why would he do a damn fool thing like that? Fauci is and was the source of reason in the screwed up Trump administration non-response to Covid, and is continuing under Biden. People jump on him because he originally said masks weren't required. Do these stupid people blaming him for everything know why he said that?

It's because he didn't want everyone panicking and buying up all of the PPE which was in limited supply at the time, and leaving it for the doctors and nurses who needed it on the front line. When PPE was more commonly available, he reversed his position. But does the brain dead section of the American public understand that? No. It's sad that some people are so stupid that they have to concentrate to breathe.
 
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At least the last 1,5 years enlightened us as to what obligations we have to the fellow human. It is funny how there was so much poverty,sickness,death and misery, when all this time there was so powerful a sense of obligation by so many. It's almost as if it's a lie.
 
You can't tell that it's not exponential based on that. Exponential growth simply means that the rate of change is proportional to the number of cases.

Last 5 days it's been going up but not 2,4,8,16 etc. And all the found cases are linked.
 
Last 5 days it's been going up but not 2,4,8,16 etc. And all the found cases are linked.

That's not what "exponential" means when used in such stats. There it simply means that the more x you have, the more y you will have. If, for example, you had y=1.1x, that would still be termed "exponential" in this context, despite there being no base and exponent reacting for each step.
 
That's not what "exponential" means when used in such stats. There it simply means that the more x you have, the more y you will have. If, for example, you had y=1.1x, that would still be termed "exponential" in this context, despite there being no base and exponent reacting for each step.

It's been something like 35, 41, 41,45,62.

Expected to peak Friday or over weekend then reduces.

Theoretically.
 
It's been something like 35, 41, 41,45,62.

Expected to peak Friday or over weekend then reduces.

Theoretically.

That really has nothing to do with whether it's exponential or not.

Last 5 days have been 24, 24, 38, 42, 63.

Fits to a an exponential function of roughly y = 16.91 × 1.28^x.
 
That really has nothing to do with whether it's exponential or not.

Last 5 days have been 24, 24, 38, 42, 63.

Fits to a an exponential function of roughly y = 16.91 × 1.28^x.

It's just the words the director general of health said.

They're also testing the sewage and only the two cities and all the cases found are linked to known clusters.

Optimistic basically. The daily record is 89.
 
It's just the words the director general of health said.

They're also testing the sewage and only the two cities and all the cases found are linked to known clusters.

Optimistic basically. The daily record is 89.

Optimism and pessimism have nothing to do with whether a function is exponential or not.

Any growth rate of covid in any country is only exponential until it isn't.
 
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