1. We have added a Gift Upgrades feature that allows you to gift an account upgrade to another member, just in time for the holiday season. You can see the gift option when going to the Account Upgrades screen, or on any user profile screen.
    Dismiss Notice

[RD] Daily Graphs and Charts

Discussion in 'Off-Topic' started by Winner, Dec 22, 2011.

  1. classical_hero

    classical_hero In whom I trust

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2003
    Messages:
    33,263
    Location:
    Perth,Western Australia
    Sex Before Soccer. They have a pay tv channel called World Movies and it is the only channel that shows R rated movies besides the adults channels, which are extra, unlike World Movies, which is part of the Movies package.
     
  2. Fr8monkey

    Fr8monkey Deity

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2001
    Messages:
    2,531
    Location:
    In the world of tomorrow!!
    And now we have complete morons trying to reverse that.
     
  3. Borachio

    Borachio Way past lunacy

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    26,698
    Every couple of years I have this conversation with random strangers:

    STRANGER: Oh, I'm sorry. I thought you were someone else.
    ME: That's OK. I am someone else.
     
  4. Paul in Saudi

    Paul in Saudi Emperor

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2008
    Messages:
    1,306
    Location:
    Dammam, Saudi Arabia
    From the UK's National Health Service;

     
  5. Monsterzuma

    Monsterzuma the sly one

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,972
    it's OK to have a little more war. it's fractionally not a big deal.
     
  6. Borachio

    Borachio Way past lunacy

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    26,698
    Yes. But if instead we have a graphic of avoidable causes of death, doesn't our perspective change a bit?
     
  7. Heretic_Cata

    Heretic_Cata We're gonna live forever

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    9,587
    Location:
    Romania
    I always said there should be an "Undetermined events" awareness program.
     
  8. plarq

    plarq Crazy forever

    Joined:
    May 16, 2004
    Messages:
    6,155
    Location:
    None of the above
    Somehow most of causes can be avoided by eating more healthier, exercise more, and do medical screening annually.
     
  9. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    43,137
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    They're all avoidable, it's a question of when they become so! :cool:
     
  10. Terxpahseyton

    Terxpahseyton How much Parmesan to put on your umbrella?

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2006
    Messages:
    10,120
    If by avoided you mean delayed, you would be right.
    x-post
     
  11. plarq

    plarq Crazy forever

    Joined:
    May 16, 2004
    Messages:
    6,155
    Location:
    None of the above
    Death can not be avoided, but some of death causes can be avoided.
     
  12. Samez

    Samez ION GUNNER

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2005
    Messages:
    1,532
    Location:
    center of nowhere
    Is the UK currently at war at all? Troops withdrawing from Afghanistan and some airstrikes in Syria and Iraq or did I miss something?
     
  13. Borachio

    Borachio Way past lunacy

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    26,698
    Wut? I've a feeling you must mean something, but I'm not sure what it is.

    Well... er... yes?

    Yes. But let's put to one side the possibility of immortality just for a moment.

    I agree. But I don't think "avoided" does mean "delayed". I like to avoid having road accidents, but I don't mean by it that I like to delay them.

    Yes indeed. And that's just my point. War, and road accidents are eminently avoidable, imo.

    I don't know. It may, technically, not be at war with anyone just at the moment. If past experience is anything to go by, it won't be for long, though.
     
  14. KMRblue1027

    KMRblue1027 The Crown!

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2010
    Messages:
    2,223
    Location:
    Hamilton, NJ
    When mind uploading is invented?
     
  15. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    43,137
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    No, when an affordable cure is created for any specific condition. Something else will crop up, but if it's based in biology, it can be fought too. It's not necessary to be overly optimistic to recognize that any specific condition can be (eventually) cured.

    Borachio: When it comes to degenerative diseases, 'delayed' is the best way to look at it, actually. Each disease is concomitantly grinding us down, just at different rates. The best you can do is push each of them forwards in time (either individually, or in groups). Now, there's no biological upper limit on how each one can be delayed, but there's a practical limit.

    For example, there's a bit of a sea change going on in prostate cancer. While there's a 1 in 8 chance of getting it, there's only a 1 in 28 chance of dying from it. In other words, if your prostate cancer grows slowly enough, then something else will get you first.
     
  16. Terxpahseyton

    Terxpahseyton How much Parmesan to put on your umbrella?

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2006
    Messages:
    10,120
    Because something else killed you earlier.
    The war on terror never ends.
    Never.
    But in a way you did.
    As your life span increases the probability of you dieing in a car crash approaches 1. No matter what you do, technically.
    So when you have succeeded in avoiding death by car crash, another not less accurate way to phrase it would be to say that you have delayed death by car-crash sufficiently long enough until something else managed to kill you.
     
  17. Borachio

    Borachio Way past lunacy

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2012
    Messages:
    26,698
    That's certainly one way of looking at things, I'll grant you. It's not the usual one, though. The longer I live, the greater the chance of me being killed by a full stop in a novel by Jeffrey Archer. (Assuming it contains some deadly volatile poison that's given off the moment I open the book. I mention Jeffrey Archer because he's probably the novelist I'm least likely ever to read again.)

    As for whether the UK is at war at the moment. I think, on reflection, it is. The RAF is flying sorties against IS as far as I recall. That counts as being at war.
     
  18. Monsterzuma

    Monsterzuma the sly one

    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2008
    Messages:
    2,972


    employment/population ratio

    7 years into the supposed recovery, american employment has still barely risen at all from it's 2009 bottom.

    regular employment figures obscure this by not counting discouraged workers or early retirees as unemployed.
     
  19. El_Machinae

    El_Machinae Colour vision since 2018 Retired Moderator

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2005
    Messages:
    43,137
    Location:
    Pale Blue Dot youtube=wupToqz1e2g
    This is actually mistaken, statistically. In order for a risk to asymptote to trend towards one, the risk needs to stay stable (or increase) over time. So, if you've a 30% of a car crash this year, next year, the year after, etc. then you asymptote towards one.

    But if you iteratively decrease your risks, e.g., lower the speed limit in the 50's, put in ABS in the 90's, crashbags in the '00's, collision avoidance in the '10's, robot cars in the 20's, etc. then your absolute risk doesn't trend towards one, but towards some lower number. The per-year risk-of-death needs to iteratively drop over time.

    This is a similar mistake made as was made in another thread.

    But, there's a common-sense intuition here. Any specific threat can be brought down to a risk of zero. If you survive to that point, then your odds of death (from that threat) become zero. They don't continue to trend towards one.
     
  20. nc-1701

    nc-1701 bombombedum

    Joined:
    Oct 28, 2005
    Messages:
    4,025
    Location:
    America
    False.

    In order for your absolute risk to converge to one the sum of the risks in the tail has to be zero. In other words for any epsilon>0 there needs to be a time t such that the probability of dying after time t is less than epsilon.

    This is a very strong condition, and is entirely infeasible in real life. While the math for convergence can work this is definitely a case where intuition would be correct.

    Spoiler :
    Yes I realize the series will be weird to calculate since we are dealing with conditional probabilities, but the fundamentals still apply.
     

Share This Page