Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Birdjaguar]

So we have the 2 options.

1. Trump wins, the election was fair
2. Trump loses, must be because of epic shenanigans.

So option 3.
3. Trump loses because that's just how the election went
isn't even considered.

When even before the result is known, even before anyone can say anything about anything, the claim is made: if Trump loses, it's rigged.
This, by definition, is based on air.

That is how MAGA rolls.

 

[SemiLazyGamer]

Someome previously mentioned weather as a factor in voting. Here's what the NWS is forecasting for tomorrow.

 

[Thorgalaeg]

That is how MAGA rolls.

IMO Trump should have been eliminated time ago, he is the biggest threat to US existence abs world stability in general.

 

[Zardnaar]

IMO Trump should have been eliminated time ago, he is the biggest threat to US existence abs world stability in general.

Well he hasn't fallen out of a window.

 

[GenMarshall]

Someome previously mentioned weather as a factor in voting. Here's what the NWS is forecasting for tomorrow.

Thats not going to stop Trump supporters from voting though. They will even cross a field of land mines in a blizzard just to cast their vote for The Orange One.

 

[Gori the Grey]

As will people voting against Trump.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Thats not going to stop Trump supporters from voting though. They will even cross a field of land mines in a blizzard just to cast their vote for The Orange One.

Looking at the weather map, on the west coast, Washington and Oregon are going blue regardless of weather. Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and North Dakota are going red regardless of weather. I doubt weather affects Iowa, because Iowans are used to terrible weather, including freezing cold and snow. Plus they are really passionate about voting because they are a first-primary/caucus state. So rain isn't going to keep them from voting.

In the middle of the country, Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana are going to be red regardless of weather. Minnesota and Illinois will be blue regardless of weather. In the east, Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont are used to cold/rain so the vote won't be affected. South Carolina will be red regardless of weather.

So the states where the weather might have an impact are Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Texas and North Carolina. In North Carolina specifically, the part that would be impacted by rain is probably mostly Trump voters. In Texas the rain is hitting all the big cities so that would theoretically hurt Democrats the most. In Florida the rain hits Miami, but I'm thinking Floridians are accustomed enough to rain to mostly just tough it out. That said, reduced turnout in Miami would be disastrous for Democrats.

Heavy rain in the big cities in Wisconsin and Michigan will definitely hurt Democrats, so that would be really bad news for the Harris campaign. So on balance, that weather forecast heavily favors Trump. I guess we will see if he is able to capitalize on it, or if people are so determined to keep him out that they brave the weather to do so.

The other thing(s) to consider, is that a lot of folks have already voted early or by mail (I did), so the lines at the polls are going to be shorter and there are just less people overall to be discouraged by weather. I'd guess that anyone who was waiting specifically to vote in person, for whatever reason, is passionate enough about voting in person, that they're not going to be dissuaded from voting at the last minute by some rain.

 

[Sommerswerd]

I just checked RCP and the small lead Trump had is gone. RCP's aggregation is showing an outright tie, which is pretty wild.

538 has Harris up 1.0%. Harris leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania. All the leads are small, well withing the infamous "margin of error".

Silver Bulletin has Harris up 0.8%.

I imagine all these polling sites will issue a "final poll" right before the election, maybe by tonight or sometime early tomorrow morning, unless these current results are their final polls.

I saw on the news this weekend IIRC that over 70 million people have already voted. If that's the case half of the vote is already cast. Biden voted today in Delaware, apparently the wait at his polling place was 30 mins, so I'd say we may be in for some long lines at the polls tomorrow... well not me... I already voted by mail .

 

[innonimatu]

I just checked RCP and the small lead Trump had is gone. RCP's aggregation is showing an outright tie, which is pretty wild.

It's not wild, it's plain wrong. It'slooking like a Trumpo landslide. Or rather, an anti-democrats protest vote landslide. He's winning because the opponent is incredibly crappy, as before.

Recent polls for Harris, like the "women!" one of Ohio, were deliberately biased in their sampling. And will only make the shock tomorrow greater. The media is playing this as "very close" to get attention. Souldn't be playing with people this way. But that's how they get eyeballs and make a profit. Can't change things, may as well get more popcorn before the stores close today...

 

[Sommerswerd]

It's not wild, it's plain wrong. It'slooking like a Trumpo landslide. Or rather, an anti-democrats protest vote landslide. He's winning because the opponent is incredibly crappy, as before.

Recent polls for Harris, like the "women!" one of Ohio, were deliberately biased in their sampling. And will only make the shock tomorrow greater. The media is playing this as "very close" to get attention. Souldn't be playing with people this way. But that's how they get eyeballs and make a profit. Can't change things, may as well get more popcorn before the stores close today...

I literally cracked up at this post. I'm still laughing as I type this .

Thanks inno, I needed that

 

[Sommerswerd]

I think Vance is running a version of the same gambit that Tred Cruz tried (and failed) to pull off, except that Vance was cunning enough to flip-flop and become a Trump sycophant first, then weasel his way onto Trump's ticket, rather than running against Trump, losing and only then trying to get into his administration afterwards, which is the mistake that Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Chris Christie, Marco Rubio and so many others made.

After they ran against Trump and lost, its too late to kiss up then, because he will always despise them for running against him. He only keeps them around to mock and humiliate them.

I forgot to add Haley to this list... I did say "so many others" but I think she deserves special mention, because she totally flip-flopped to kiss up to Trump after she dropped out... all to no avail. She's now doing interviews complaining that she has reached out to Trump and offered to campaign for him and Trump is basically ghosting her. Trump didn't ask her to campaign for him because she would have asked for a cabinet position in return, and he isn't giving her jack-squat, because she offended his ego during the primaries.

I think its the same as Tim Scott and the others... its too late to kiss up now, because they ran against him and said mean things about him. All they are going to get from him is ridicule, humiliation and/or ostracization. Even Mitch McConnell is getting roasted and mocked by Trump, even after McConnell endorsed him for POTUS.

Kennedy was shrewd enough to make his dropping out transactional for Trump, making his withdrawal contingent on being promised a cabinet position. He reportedly went to the Harris campaign first with that offer, but was rejected, so then he went to make the deal with Trump.

 

[Farm Boy]

She'll outlive him if he wins. If he loses, she'll outlive him and be the one that said that if you elect the orange assclown in the primary then Harris will be president. But she's a Republican that wants to stay in the game, so she's ultimately Loyal Order of the Waterbuffallo.

 

[Lexicus]

It's not wild, it's plain wrong. It'slooking like a Trumpo landslide. Or rather, an anti-democrats protest vote landslide. He's winning because the opponent is incredibly crappy, as before.

Recent polls for Harris, like the "women!" one of Ohio, were deliberately biased in their sampling. And will only make the shock tomorrow greater. The media is playing this as "very close" to get attention. Souldn't be playing with people this way. But that's how they get eyeballs and make a profit. Can't change things, may as well get more popcorn before the stores close today...

If you turn out to be wrong about this, will you say you were wrong or will you imply that the Democrats must have cheated in some way?

 

[Sommerswerd]

She'll outlive him if he wins. If he loses, she'll outlive him and be the one that said that if you elect the orange assclown in the primary then Harris will be president. But she's a Republican that wants to stay in the game, so she's ultimately Loyal Order of the Waterbuffallo.

Yeah I agree that she is trying to play the long game. If she opposed Trump, she would be toast as a Republican and her career would go the way of Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger. The only option Haley would have if she was going to stand on principle and oppose Trump, would be to switch parties. But she is planning on running for POTUS again as a Republican, so the only way to remain viable and live to fight another day is to get on Trump's page and stay on his good side, or at least out of his crosshairs.

Whether this strategic (cowardly) approach pays off, only time will tell. It certainly worked for Lindsey Graham. We get to see soon of it works for Ted Cruz.

 

[Farm Boy]

Kinzinger wasn't our doing. That was jerrymandering. This isn't one of the democratic states.

I suppose we could get into cracking and packing and what it does to the primary process and how the primaries have been working in both parties to drive edgy wingnuts... but we know this.

 

[choxorn]

It's not wild, it's plain wrong. It'slooking like a Trumpo landslide. Or rather, an anti-democrats protest vote landslide. He's winning because the opponent is incredibly crappy, as before.

People dislike Kamala Harris, but she doesn't nearly inspire the same level of revulsion as Hillary Clinton did. She's more around Biden levels of popularity (well, around the same level Biden was at in the 2020 general election) and Trump is a lot more hated now than he was in 2016 because he's just continued proving that as bad as we thought he was then, he's worse.

Recent polls for Harris, like the "women!" one of Ohio, were deliberately biased in their sampling.

You got some kind of supporting evidence for that, or is it just you going on "feels" because you, despite being a professed "leftist," hate the Democrats more than the Republicans?

 

[Voidwalkin]

I think we can say now, with most all minds made up, that the Dem system hasn't produced any all-stars post Obama.

I wonder why. I don't think the Republicans have either. It's not an era that has any heavyweight in contention to be goat.

Could be random. But I doubt it. I think the polarization accelerated by echo chambers has made it increasingly difficult for a candidate with broad appeal to rise through the system, because there is no nore real preferred ideology. It's resulting in entirely different moral frameworks living side by side, but with friction.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think we can say now, with most all minds made up, that the Dem system hasn't produced any all-stars post Obama.

I wonder why. I don't think the Republicans have either. It's not an era that has any heavyweight in contention to be goat.

Could be random. But I doubt it. I think the polarization accelerated by echo chambers has made it increasingly difficult for a candidate with broad appeal to rise through the system, because there is no nore real preferred ideology. It's resulting in entirely different moral frameworks living side by side, but with friction.

I would argue Trump was an all star.

 

[Strong Reaction]

Trump mimicking fellatio was kinda funny, if not just out right weird? I mean water weed dune hair [sic].

Urban Dictionary: water we dune hair

None

www.urbandictionary.com

 

[Gori the Grey]

It's not what it's being made to seem like. He was just complaining about the crew not setting up his microphone properly, so that he has to bend down toward it, and that makes him look slumping and tired. Since he always has to pantomime everything when he tells his stories, this is him pantomiming what it's like to speak into a microphone set too low.