Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[thetrooper]

I'd be all for that, if the consequences of US politics ignored us. But US is simply too big, has too much impact on other countries, so the crazy stuff that goes on there inevitably ends up affecting us.

This cannot be emphasized enough.

And God help us all if the orange clown wins.

 

[Birdjaguar]

@Samson a key would be nice.

 

[Birdjaguar]

This might well change all the odds.

Trump no longer leads in a state he carried twice, according to new Iowa Poll​

Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year’s campaign.

The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared with the previous Iowa Poll, in September, which found a narrow edge for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump to 43% for Harris.

There has been little other high-quality polling in Iowa thus far this cycle with which to compare these findings. Iowa has a mixed record in the last four presidential elections, breaking for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, while Trump won it in 2016 and again in 2020.

The new poll finds women in the state largely favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men support Trump by a narrower margin, 52% to 38%. And independents in the state have flipped to support Harris, 46% to 39%; they have favored Trump in Iowa Polls released earlier this year.

The survey also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris’ camp, with 55% of likely voters ages 65 or older backing her to 36% for Trump, while likely voters younger than 35 split about evenly, 46% Harris to 44% Trump.

More than 9 in 10 Iowa likely voters say their minds are made up in the new poll (91%), with 7% saying they could be persuaded and 2% that they haven’t yet chosen a candidate.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll was conducted October 28-31 by Selzer & Co. among 808 Iowa likely voters. Interviews were conducted by telephone. Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/politics/iowa-poll-harris-trump/index.html

 

[Gori the Grey]

Yup! You heard it here first:

Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

General aversion to anything new is probably more motivating than actual racism. The oldsters who hate self-checkout I suspect don't like immigration for the same reason. It's new. I'm sure there's a Greek word with a suffix on it that describes that, but it's not presently coming to mind...

forums.civfanatics.com

 

[Birdjaguar]

And that was September 18!!!! Nice call.

-6 to Trump and +6 to Harris at the base level will change the swing state dynamics a lot.

 

[KMRblue1027]

That poll is huge even if at the very high end of the MoE means Harris will barely lose Iowa, That's a sweep of the rust belt and likely GA/NC too.

It comes from an extremely well regarded source too. They're one of the gold standards been within 4 points IIRC in Iowa for 20 years now.

 

[Samson]

@Samson a key would be nice.

It would be, but it is paywalled

 

[Voidwalkin]

Personally wish Harris woulda scheduled remaining visits in PA rather than the sunbelt. Really pessimistic on chances of victory in any of them. GA is the big prize, but I think Trump is gonna win a little bigger than polls show there.

WI is solid. MI steady enough. PA is the key.

I'm unsure how much impact her rallies will have at all, though. Realistically the GOTV infra put in place a year ago is either good enough to overcome MAGA dedication or it isn't, at this point.

Don't see the South breaking that way.

 

[Bamspeedy]

text messages from both sides telling me to vote. Missed call from 'Donald J Trump'. 'Vote early' been pushed by trumps camp which is odd considering that camp tries to throw out absentee ballots.

My dad (lifelong die hard republican) had to vote absentee this year. Id find it humorous if they try to throw out his ballot. (And earlier i told him im not voting absentee because then 'someone' would try to throw out my vote).

 

[Cutlass]

I voted early. But it was in person at town hall. The ballots went into an envelope which is supposed to go into the counting machine on election day.

 

[Farm Boy]

This might well change all the odds.

Trump no longer leads in a state he carried twice, according to new Iowa Poll​

Vice President Kamala Harris holds 47% to former President Donald Trump’s 44% among likely voters in the final Iowa Poll before Election Day from the Des Moines Register and Mediacom. That margin falls within the poll’s 3.4 point margin of sampling error and suggests no clear leader in the state, which has widely been rated as solidly in the GOP column during this year’s campaign.

The findings suggest a shift toward Harris compared with the previous Iowa Poll, in September, which found a narrow edge for Trump. In that poll, 47% of likely voters backed Trump to 43% for Harris.

There has been little other high-quality polling in Iowa thus far this cycle with which to compare these findings. Iowa has a mixed record in the last four presidential elections, breaking for Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, while Trump won it in 2016 and again in 2020.

The new poll finds women in the state largely favor Harris over Trump, 56% to 36%, while men support Trump by a narrower margin, 52% to 38%. And independents in the state have flipped to support Harris, 46% to 39%; they have favored Trump in Iowa Polls released earlier this year.

The survey also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris’ camp, with 55% of likely voters ages 65 or older backing her to 36% for Trump, while likely voters younger than 35 split about evenly, 46% Harris to 44% Trump.

More than 9 in 10 Iowa likely voters say their minds are made up in the new poll (91%), with 7% saying they could be persuaded and 2% that they haven’t yet chosen a candidate.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll was conducted October 28-31 by Selzer & Co. among 808 Iowa likely voters. Interviews were conducted by telephone. Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.4 points.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/02/politics/iowa-poll-harris-trump/index.html

Garbage voters either way.

But nothing really new.

 

[Gori the Grey]

This

-6 to Trump and +6 to Harris at the base level will change the swing state dynamics a lot.

probably won't extrapolate out of Iowa, but this

The survey also suggests that older voters are firmly in Harris’ camp, with 55% of likely voters ages 65 or older backing her to 36% for Trump,

might.

I think the primary demographic story of this election will be women, but a secondary story might be older people, raised on a certain idea of how democracy is supposed to operate, for whom election denialism and 1/6 actually did cross the line.

 

[Ajidica]

Garbage voters either way.

But nothing really new.

As a Minnesotan I am legally required to look down at Iowa.

Though on-topic, I'm not feeling confident on Harris' chances. Despite months of literal "We should put grandpa in a home" moments Trump is still leading or neck-and-neck with Harris in both swing state votes and national votes.
Based purely on gut feelings from articles and anecdotes, I'm not sure Democrats can count on low-engagement voters breaking their way as has traditionally been the case. There seems to have been a shift in the last few years where low-engagement voters break toward the GOP - in particular break toward Trump.

Money on table, final answer, I'm predicting a repeat of 2016 where Harris will win the popular vote but narrowly lose in enough swing states -either by votes or post-facto legal shenanigans - Trump wins the electoral college.

 

[Kaitzilla]

Out with the old, in with the old?

Nate Silver's latest has Trump a centimeter ahead of Harris.

ABC News – Breaking News, Latest News and Videos

ABC News is your trusted source on political news stories and videos. Get the latest coverage and analysis on everything from the Trump presidency, Senate, House and Supreme Court.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

53%/47%

Everyone have fun this Tuesday!

 

[aelf]

Is that not just basic freedom of expression? Taste is a subjective thing and what I find funny you might find offensive and otherwise. And I for one do not wish to live in a world where either of us (rhetorically speaking) is given the power to be the absolute arbiter of what is and is not funny.

Did you read what I was replying to?

 

[Farm Boy]

As a Minnesotan I am legally required to look down at Iowa.

Though on-topic, I'm not feeling confident on Harris' chances. Despite months of literal "We should put grandpa in a home" moments Trump is still leading or neck-and-neck with Harris in both swing state votes and national votes.
Based purely on gut feelings from articles and anecdotes, I'm not sure Democrats can count on low-engagement voters breaking their way as has traditionally been the case. There seems to have been a shift in the last few years where low-engagement voters break toward the GOP - in particular break toward Trump.

Money on table, final answer, I'm predicting a repeat of 2016 where Harris will win the popular vote but narrowly lose in enough swing states -either by votes or post-facto legal shenanigans - Trump wins the electoral college.

I was kind of thinking Stripes 1981 and the wretched refuse, tbh.

 

[Voidwalkin]

I'd feel better if she had picked Shapiro.

I kinda like Walz but this thing is probably won or lost on half a point in PA.

 

[Ajidica]

I'd feel better if she had picked Shapiro.

Any reason? Shapiro may have helped her in PA, but Walz is likely helping in Wisconsin and Michigan. (And may be part of the poll that Birdjag linked to which may have Iowa in margin of error.)
I know little about Shapiro, but he doesn't seem to appeal to a different demographic than Harris. Walz - a midwestern dad who served in the army and likes hunting and working on trucks - appeals to a demographic that Harris has no real link to.
Plus, I remember back during the Veepstakes there were some articles noting that Shapiro has some really awkward skeletons in his closet from his time as AG; such as when it looks like he leaned on a coroner to change the cause of death to protect a family friend from murder charges. Even if only 20% true, it reads as actually bad. As opposed to Walz's big "scandals" which based off GOP talking points are: not enough front-end auditing of Covid relief funds on providing school lunches, and funding for schools to put tampon products in both gender restrooms.*

*Given how interested teenage boys are in getting into female parts, they could do with having a better idea of how those parts work!

 

[Voidwalkin]

Any reason? Shapiro may have helped her in PA, but Walz is likely helping in Wisconsin and Michigan. (And may be part of the poll that Birdjag linked to which may have Iowa in margin of error.)
I know little about Shapiro, but he doesn't seem to appeal to a different demographic than Harris. Walz - a midwestern dad who served in the army and likes hunting and working on trucks - appeals to a demographic that Harris has no real link to.
Plus, I remember back during the Veepstakes there were some articles noting that Shapiro has some really awkward skeletons in his closet from his time as AG; such as when it looks like he leaned on a coroner to change the cause of death to protect a family friend from murder charges. Even if only 20% true, it reads as actually bad. As opposed to Walz's big "scandals" which based off GOP talking points are: not enough front-end auditing of Covid relief funds on providing school lunches, and funding for schools to put tampon products in both gender restrooms.*

*Given how interested teenage boys are in getting into female parts, they could do with having a better idea of how those parts work!

Drat. You made your post about 2 minutes before I edited in it's gonna be won or lost on half a point in PA.

It really does come down to that. I don't worry much about scandals. Not as much as I used to, nor Shapiro running afoul of the teachers union(where else they gonna go? They're more pragmatic, by necessity, than other branches of the dem party)

Scandals I don't think rock the public as they used to, generally. I think it's a consequence of moving so much into the online sphere; we are becoming more aware of who humanity is. We've seen the studio-managed Hollywood style politics go into continuing decline worldwide, replaced with gossipy tabloids with grim details, or something to that effect.

That's not to say I doubt he has skeletons, but I'll happily overlook them if he makes a Harris win more likely. Scale of the USA is huge and I think the benefits(and stakes) of good governance so exceeds in importance what somebody does on the personal level that it's probably less relevant to me than it is to most.

 

[amadeus]

Perennial skeptic reporting in to once again say that as far as we can ascertain, vice presidential picks do not significantly influence the outcome of a state’s votes in the election.