Sara Palin?
Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!
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Voidwalkin
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Similar arguments can(and have) been made regarding campaign events generally.
I think the truth is probably that the effect is small - but a small effect in an election this tight can be the difference.
More anti-Trump statues are popping up across US. Anonymous artist attached to the project says there could be more
It started with a bronze replica of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s desk on the National Mall in Washington, DC – topped with a basketball-sized poop. Now, anti-Trump statues are popping up in more US cities.
Pictures here:
Strong Reaction
Prince
My aim was to point out the hypocrisy of illegal vs legal migration, because "Until the late 19th century, there wasn’t any such thing as “illegal” or “legal” immigration to the United States. That’s because before you can immigrate somewhere illegally, there has to be a law for you to break". You pointed out the difference between lawful and unlawful immigration. I am just pointing out a vast number of Europeans immigrated here when there were no laws to make it illegal. When they did make laws it was to keep out a certain races [Chinese Exclusion Act] and had a preference for legal immigrants being from Europe. "1790 Naturalization Act had originally said that only free white people could become naturalized citizens" The previous law did not change until the 20th century. So legal vs illegal immigration was and is still race based and convoluted.
quotes from here: https://www.history.com/news/the-birth-of-illegal-immigration
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Ajidica
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True, but if Walz can convince a few thousand people in Wisconsin that maybe Harris wouldn't be all that bad so they don't need to vote for President that could end up having a major impact.
I have to ask a couple of things here:
1) Do Minnesotans actually say ‘Ya’ as much as they do in Fargo, the Coen Brothers' masterpiece?
2) Shouldn't it be look down on Iowa?
So would Walz's job be just to disencourage people from voting for Trump?
If anyone is thinking of gambling on this election, if you think 538 have any idea what they are doing do NOT bet on the dems taking the senate, even though you can get five times return (if that is the right word talking about decimal odds).
Comparing oddschecker odds to 538 simulations this is what I calculate is the expected return:
Comparing oddschecker odds to 538 simulations this is what I calculate is the expected return:
Code:
bets odds p Return
1 DT 1.75 0.534 0.93450
2 KH 2.30 0.464 1.06720
3 Rep_Senate 1.22 0.903 1.10166
4 Dem_Senate 5.00 0.097 0.48500
5 Rep_House 2.00 0.520 1.04000
6 Dem_House 2.00 0.480 0.96000Spoiler Calculations :
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Zardnaar
Deity
sylvanllewelyn
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Everyone talks about the election. But very few are confident enough to clearly write down a prediction.
Narz
keeping it real
I think so too but will be very close.
Gori the Grey
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Harris will win. She will carry the states she needs to for an electoral victory: WI, MI, PA. She will win NC and GA (once every attempt to muddy the waters has cleared). I'm giving her IA as well. Trump prevails in AZ. Harris gets NV. She will get Biden's popular 2020 vote total, Trump will not get his: 81 million+ to 72 million.
Trump will begin contesting the results immediately. Thousands of self-appointed poll watchers will come forward with video purporting to show fraud: this guy went into the polling place with his jacket on, but came out with it draped over his forearm! Because of the sheer volume of such "evidence," it will take a long time for the courts to settle many races. Enough of them will be put in doubt this way that if you give the results of all of them to Trump he will be the winner, so there will be the claim for two months that the election is not actually settled.
Mike Johnson in particular will go on record saying "well if circumstances in State X remain in this dubious state, I'll be forced to throw out their results," so the threat of turning things over to state representation in the House will linger through the remaining two months. Things will clear sufficiently that on Jan 6 (!), the House will confirm Harris' victory (though with distressingly large numbers of Rs voting against doing so), with the sitting Vice President certifying the results.
Stay hydrated.
Trump will begin contesting the results immediately. Thousands of self-appointed poll watchers will come forward with video purporting to show fraud: this guy went into the polling place with his jacket on, but came out with it draped over his forearm! Because of the sheer volume of such "evidence," it will take a long time for the courts to settle many races. Enough of them will be put in doubt this way that if you give the results of all of them to Trump he will be the winner, so there will be the claim for two months that the election is not actually settled.
Mike Johnson in particular will go on record saying "well if circumstances in State X remain in this dubious state, I'll be forced to throw out their results," so the threat of turning things over to state representation in the House will linger through the remaining two months. Things will clear sufficiently that on Jan 6 (!), the House will confirm Harris' victory (though with distressingly large numbers of Rs voting against doing so), with the sitting Vice President certifying the results.
Stay hydrated.
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Narz
keeping it real
Turning internet off at 8pm (3pm EST) as per usual.
I remember in 2016 staying up til 7am in shock. Not this time. Bad enough I'm addicted to news beforehand.
Gori the Grey
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I'm going to post a Watch Party thread! So we can all celebrate, or commiserate, together.
That said, I likely won't watch much past midnight, however things are going. I get sleepy!
That's the advantage of being in Europe : you get the results (or most of them) when you wake up at ~2AM EST
Ordnael
Emperor
Neat article to help us non muricans understand how elections work over there:
www.politico.eu
How to watch the US election like a pro
How to watch the US election like a pro
Here’s what you need to know as Donald Trump and Kamala Harris compete for the presidency.
www.politico.eu
Canadian Bluebeer
King
There were no laws THEN. There are NOW.
That is the difference. Really cannot compare the two times then.
(this is the last I'm gonna say on this topic, in this thread. If it had its own thread ... maybe.)
Oh, on the predictions. Methinks, short of epic shenanigans, Trump will win. By a lot. (mid 300s in the EC)
If there are any 3am large data dumps, I also predict bad things will happen. (no idea if said DD will happen, but if...)
This election is really under a microscope. (and honestly, that isn't a bad thing. Elections SHOULD be watched carefully!)
(yeah, my Capt Obvious statement for a monday)
In NM we get EST results starting about 6PM local time.
TV networks have had to adjust how they cover election night
Close polls, likely legal challenges make calling the election ‘treacherous’
BY STEPHEN BATTAGLIO LOS ANGELES TIMES
Ever since network television started covering presidential election nights in 1948, there have been only two occasions when viewers had to wait more than a day to learn the outcome.
The first was in 2000, when the country was on hold for five weeks before the U.S. Supreme Court put an end to the vote recounts in Florida and gave George W. Bush the White House over Al Gore.
Twenty years later, viewers sweated it out for four days before the networks put 270 electoral votes in President Biden’s column on Nov. 7, 2020. Pandemic restrictions led to officials counting an unprecedented number of mailin ballots, slowing the process. Former President Trump’s legal challenges to the results and his attempts to block the certification of the vote became a saga that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.
The bumpy ride of 2020 has TV news operations preparing for more uncharted territory when ballot counting begins Tuesday night in the tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The 2024 election could be decided by narrow margins in as many as seven states, and Trump already is making accusations of voter fraud, as he did four years ago.
“If the polls are accurate, we’re in for a real doozy,” said Chris Stirewalt, political editor for cable network NewsNation and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
Executives across the network news divisions say they will deploy a greater number of correspondents throughout the swing states, some assigned specifically to deal with election security and protests. Attorneys with experience in election issues have become a very hot commodity in TV newsrooms.
“We really bolstered up our state election law expertise,” said Catherine Kim, executive vice president for editorial at NBC News. “They’re going to be working around the clock.”
NBC News and MSNBC will have a “reading room” at its Rockefeller Center headquarters where its team of legal correspondents and analysts will be ready to break down court cases if they come in.
CNN has hired Benjamin Ginsberg, the election lawyer who represented the Bush campaign in 2000. Fox News has added Thomas Dupree, an assistant district attorney during the Obama administration, to its team of legal experts.
CBS News will have a “Democracy Desk” to analyze voting-related matters and its CBS News Confirmed unit to fact-check reports. ABC has a “Ballot Watch” unit that will monitor election integrity.
Networks once prided themselves on being the first to declare the election results. Not anymore.
“Calling the election is treacherous territory,” said Rick Klein, vice president and Washington bureau chief for ABC News. “I think very few viewers know or care who projects a state first, but every viewer should care that they are projected right.”
Being first and right can even have its drawbacks in the current hyper-partisan environment.
In 2020, Fox News, which teams with the Associated Press and research organization NORC at the University of Chicago to analyze the results, correctly called Arizona for Biden at 11:20 (Eastern) on election night with roughly 80% of the vote counted. The decision, which shifted the unfolding narrative of the race, angered the Trump campaign and caused consternation internally at the network. The conservative-leaning channel even saw an exodus of angry viewers in the months that followed.
Fox News never wavered in its decision to award Arizona’s 11 electoral votes to Biden days before its competitors. But this time around, viewers should be prepared to wait.
“There may not be projections at all on election night,” Klein said. “I think we just need to be honest about the extent of the uncertainty out there even as polls close and the results start to roll in.”
“We’ve come to expect the unexpected along the way, and that will be our approach on election night,” said Doug Rohrbeck, senior vice president, Washington news and politics, for Fox News.
While the process in 2020 was influenced by the tens of millions of people who had voted early, a group that leaned Democratic, no one is sure what the impact will be this time around.
“Republicans, smarting from their loss in 2020, have embraced early and absentee voting,” Stirewalt said. “And former President Trump no longer talks about the problem of mail-in ballots, or certainly not as much. So I think we had better proceed into election night with a lot of humility and a real openness to the possibility that assumptions we’ve had in the past might be wrong.”
As charges of irregularities in the voting are likely to pop up, news organizations are expected to be transparent.
In previous elections, the political scientists, analysts and statisticians who make up the teams that call the races appeared on camera only when absolutely necessary. This time CBS News plans to give viewers a closer look at the process of calling states. NewsNation is partnering with Decision Desk HQ to handle its vote counting and will have a camera fixed on the room where the counting happens.
There will be more correspondents and producers deployed in key counties inside the swing states showing the official process.
“I think we’re going to see more live counting of ballots than ever before,” said Mary Hager, executive editor for politics at CBS News.
There is also another possible scenario for election night 2024: The prognostications could be off, as they have been in the last three presidential election cycles, with the possibility of a winner declared after the polls close on the West Coast.
It happened in 2012 when President Obama was running neck and neck with his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, in the final weeks of the campaign. Obama ended up winning the popular vote by four points and swamped Romney in the electoral vote count 332 to 206.
“It could be an electoral landslide in either direction,” Klein said. “No one should be surprised by either outcome.”
Stirewalt believes viewers will get some guidance from the results in North Carolina and Georgia, where polls close before 6 p.m. Mountain and which have a reputation for counting votes quickly.
“If the polls are wrong,” he said, “they tend to be in the same direction everywhere.”
Stirewalt’s hope is that whatever the outcome, it doesn’t replicate the drawn-out battle of 2000 between Bush and Gore, which happened during a comparatively more civil time in the nation’s politics.
“I do not think we have the institutional strength and confidence in our leaders to go through an ordeal like that,” he said.
TV networks have had to adjust how they cover election night
Close polls, likely legal challenges make calling the election ‘treacherous’
BY STEPHEN BATTAGLIO LOS ANGELES TIMES
Ever since network television started covering presidential election nights in 1948, there have been only two occasions when viewers had to wait more than a day to learn the outcome.
The first was in 2000, when the country was on hold for five weeks before the U.S. Supreme Court put an end to the vote recounts in Florida and gave George W. Bush the White House over Al Gore.
Twenty years later, viewers sweated it out for four days before the networks put 270 electoral votes in President Biden’s column on Nov. 7, 2020. Pandemic restrictions led to officials counting an unprecedented number of mailin ballots, slowing the process. Former President Trump’s legal challenges to the results and his attempts to block the certification of the vote became a saga that culminated in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection.
The bumpy ride of 2020 has TV news operations preparing for more uncharted territory when ballot counting begins Tuesday night in the tight race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. The 2024 election could be decided by narrow margins in as many as seven states, and Trump already is making accusations of voter fraud, as he did four years ago.
“If the polls are accurate, we’re in for a real doozy,” said Chris Stirewalt, political editor for cable network NewsNation and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Washington think tank.
Executives across the network news divisions say they will deploy a greater number of correspondents throughout the swing states, some assigned specifically to deal with election security and protests. Attorneys with experience in election issues have become a very hot commodity in TV newsrooms.
“We really bolstered up our state election law expertise,” said Catherine Kim, executive vice president for editorial at NBC News. “They’re going to be working around the clock.”
NBC News and MSNBC will have a “reading room” at its Rockefeller Center headquarters where its team of legal correspondents and analysts will be ready to break down court cases if they come in.
CNN has hired Benjamin Ginsberg, the election lawyer who represented the Bush campaign in 2000. Fox News has added Thomas Dupree, an assistant district attorney during the Obama administration, to its team of legal experts.
CBS News will have a “Democracy Desk” to analyze voting-related matters and its CBS News Confirmed unit to fact-check reports. ABC has a “Ballot Watch” unit that will monitor election integrity.
Networks once prided themselves on being the first to declare the election results. Not anymore.
“Calling the election is treacherous territory,” said Rick Klein, vice president and Washington bureau chief for ABC News. “I think very few viewers know or care who projects a state first, but every viewer should care that they are projected right.”
Being first and right can even have its drawbacks in the current hyper-partisan environment.
In 2020, Fox News, which teams with the Associated Press and research organization NORC at the University of Chicago to analyze the results, correctly called Arizona for Biden at 11:20 (Eastern) on election night with roughly 80% of the vote counted. The decision, which shifted the unfolding narrative of the race, angered the Trump campaign and caused consternation internally at the network. The conservative-leaning channel even saw an exodus of angry viewers in the months that followed.
Fox News never wavered in its decision to award Arizona’s 11 electoral votes to Biden days before its competitors. But this time around, viewers should be prepared to wait.
“There may not be projections at all on election night,” Klein said. “I think we just need to be honest about the extent of the uncertainty out there even as polls close and the results start to roll in.”
“We’ve come to expect the unexpected along the way, and that will be our approach on election night,” said Doug Rohrbeck, senior vice president, Washington news and politics, for Fox News.
While the process in 2020 was influenced by the tens of millions of people who had voted early, a group that leaned Democratic, no one is sure what the impact will be this time around.
“Republicans, smarting from their loss in 2020, have embraced early and absentee voting,” Stirewalt said. “And former President Trump no longer talks about the problem of mail-in ballots, or certainly not as much. So I think we had better proceed into election night with a lot of humility and a real openness to the possibility that assumptions we’ve had in the past might be wrong.”
As charges of irregularities in the voting are likely to pop up, news organizations are expected to be transparent.
In previous elections, the political scientists, analysts and statisticians who make up the teams that call the races appeared on camera only when absolutely necessary. This time CBS News plans to give viewers a closer look at the process of calling states. NewsNation is partnering with Decision Desk HQ to handle its vote counting and will have a camera fixed on the room where the counting happens.
There will be more correspondents and producers deployed in key counties inside the swing states showing the official process.
“I think we’re going to see more live counting of ballots than ever before,” said Mary Hager, executive editor for politics at CBS News.
There is also another possible scenario for election night 2024: The prognostications could be off, as they have been in the last three presidential election cycles, with the possibility of a winner declared after the polls close on the West Coast.
It happened in 2012 when President Obama was running neck and neck with his Republican opponent, Mitt Romney, in the final weeks of the campaign. Obama ended up winning the popular vote by four points and swamped Romney in the electoral vote count 332 to 206.
“It could be an electoral landslide in either direction,” Klein said. “No one should be surprised by either outcome.”
Stirewalt believes viewers will get some guidance from the results in North Carolina and Georgia, where polls close before 6 p.m. Mountain and which have a reputation for counting votes quickly.
“If the polls are wrong,” he said, “they tend to be in the same direction everywhere.”
Stirewalt’s hope is that whatever the outcome, it doesn’t replicate the drawn-out battle of 2000 between Bush and Gore, which happened during a comparatively more civil time in the nation’s politics.
“I do not think we have the institutional strength and confidence in our leaders to go through an ordeal like that,” he said.
This is RCP's consensus map. You're suggesting that Trump is going to get everything except for the deep blue states to make for 347 EVs ? Even states like Minnesota whose governor is on the democratic ticket ?
Spoiler :
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
So we have the 2 options.
1. Trump wins, the election was fair
2. Trump loses, must be because of epic shenanigans.
So option 3.
3. Trump loses because that's just how the election went
isn't even considered.
When even before the result is known, even before anyone can say anything about anything, the claim is made: if Trump loses, it's rigged.
This, by definition, is based on air.
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