Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[EnglishEdward]

I do not know why the pollsters were so wrong, keep being so wrong. I did hear that one in particular oversampled older women, was the criticism against that particular poll.

The demonization of Trump by the democrats probably contributed to how wrong the polls are election after election there. More people will refuse to indulge pollsters because they (most of the media, where the polls are published) are with the enemy. It is not fear of speaking out, mind you, it is disgust at them. That's what happens in these situations. Look at the (let's be ironic) polls about the credibility of the media...

I don't think many opinion pollsters have a reliable methodology for those who won't give an opinion.
I suspect most just assume that their vote distribution is the same as those who respond.

I am not surprised that Donald won, as I always thought there would be a number of shy Trump
voters in much the same way as there were in the UK shy tory voters and shy Leave voters.

However the margin of his victory is larger than I expected.

I suspect you are right, the emotional and rhetorical polarisation of the issue increased the shy vote.

 

[Joij21]

I think they intentionally skew the polls left so as to give a positivity/hope boost to the base while trying to demoralize and disincentivise the opposition's base from turning up to vote.

Obviously they have internal pills that are more accurate, plus all these big tech lords probably know what's going to happen because of everyone's cell phone data/social media habits & postings.

 

[Sarin]

But many things the Republicans do could only succeed for Republicans. Thats the damnedest thing about it!

No, Reps succeeded because Democrats failed their constituents abysmally.

 

[Senethro]

No, Reps succeeded because Democrats failed their constituents abysmally.

This is certainly true but may I point out that this is a thing the Democrats did, not the Republicans?

What I'm curious about here is the shape of the asymmetry. What things for each side have that mysterious property of being scored only in one of the ranges Success to Neutral, or the dreaded Neutral to Fail?

 

[KaibaCorp]

The ease in which misinformation fires can be started renders taking the time to learn actual answers too slow to be effective. Not that most people care enough to do that anyway.
Getting called out for an especially egregious lie? Who cares, keep going, keep meme'ing; peoples' timelines scroll infinitely. 4 years from now may as well be a whole other timeline.
Learn to get your point across in 30 second clips or you're toast. Let's see if the Dems start empowering their dumbest, but popular and viral spokespersons. Fight fire with fire, something is going to burn down.

 

[Takhisis]

But many things the Republicans do could only succeed for Republicans. Thats the damnedest thing about it!

Which is why the Democrats' insistence on staying at Republican-lite is baffling.

are you saying he didn't have it before?

In different ways. Netanyahu's quite often able to guilt Western leadrs into ‘let me massacre people and if you don't you hate Jews’, while Trump has no such thing as shame and cannot be guilted into it. He can be bought, which is a different thing.

This is an honest question and you may not have an answer but how could they possibly go more moderate than they did this time?

‘Moderate’ in this kind of situation more or less means ‘rightwards’, so just move rightwards again.

anyhow

I don't know. innonimatu was accusing me transitively of being a Trump supporter sometime last month, so when you finally learn to accept him as a Putin propagandist you'll be at peace with yourself, my young Padawan.

 

[Fippy]

Bernie is immortal

Also, this is what an actually good campaign speaker looks and sounds like:

She would have won i guess, pity that we will never find out.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

In different ways. Netanyahu's quite often able to guilt Western leadrs into ‘let me massacre people and if you don't you hate Jews’,

pretty sure Western leaders aren't being guilted but are giving their support with their eyes open

while Trump has no such thing as shame and cannot be guilted into it. He can be bought, which is a different thing.

Trump's already bought by the looks of it

The Trump Campaign's Collusion With Israel

While US media fixated on Russian interference in the 2016 election, an Israeli secret agent's campaign to influence the outcome went unreported.

www.thenation.com

 

[Voidwalkin]

The popular message by Bernie and AOC is not just about "lefties" but reconnecting to the actual working class. And that is indeed a very popular message.

I think the old-school socialist approach could be sold in America. Terrain isn't bad for it if the focus is on helping the working class economically, but there would have to be a recognition that older views on things like immigration hurting workers are still very common, and probably an outright majority amongst the actual working class. If such concessions are not made it will likely be as others have said: attract only the campus crowd, who will demand concessions of their own that reduce mass appeal.

The real challenge there is withstanding the criticism that the old style is insensitive to the concerns of groups suffering disparities of power in the primary. Such criticism will be venemous with intent to wither and is difficult to defend against, often because a fair amount of the American left hold the address of said disparities as their moral imperative, but I don't think that mixes at all well with an American culture usually opposed even to both positive and negative discrimination(meant to benefit oppressed id groups).The racist and sexist smears were directed at Sanders and would likely be directed at any who would try the approach.

Maybe it'll emerge as a possibility post-2024. There may be a willingness to concede modern leftist is not really working out so well, but this is a rather slim possibility.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

I like AOC but she has a 0% chance of being president. I know a lot of lefty people like to believe this fantasy that if the Dems just choose a socialist, everything will be good, but that’s just the lazy allure of not having to do years and decades of persuasion and recruiting to actually convince Americans that it can work here. It also weirdly means the party would get all the credit if AOC or Bernie was the nominee? It’s just dead end thinking. Every movement took years of work and organizing and brutal losses. Every single squad member has basically underperformed in their district; Omar does (even though she is great) and Cori Bush got primaried. Like I can dream of a Tlaib and AOC ticket but we are so, so far from that, with so much work to do.

 

[Hygro]

Nope. The conventional wisdom will be that they didn't go moderate enough.

Also, there are no "Bernie-type candidates" anyway. Not anymore.

Both things are true. Play the base, while on Rogan. Don’t play to the centrists next to Jennifer Combs Lopez.

I’m gonna go join AOC.

 

[innonimatu]

Europe helping could potentially replace USA if it finally find its spine and stand in.
But the big risk is Trump simply lifting sanctions on Russia.
If Trumps just does nothing, it's salvageable. If he goes full support for Putin, that's a disaster.

How are you kidding?
Europe neutered itslef. As long s the EU exists, its member countries can't rebuilt capabilities. Sanctions on Russia are a very good example of why. They are harming the EU countries, not Russia. Russia got an economic boom for free, without the political cost to its government of having to internally impose a policy of protectionism. The russian government was kindly offered protectionism for free and took excellent advantage of it. Russia is now the largest economy in Europe, Germany is sinking. But you still want to live in fantasy land?

The US is large enough to recover from its fake rent-based economy back to a productive one. It as vast resouces in its own territory. All it needs is a competent government, some day. The "eurozone" lacks resources. Made up for it with estabelished industry and know-how. It's wasting that, and won't have a material base to rebuld it later. Recovery into relevance in the world, if it ever comes, will be much harder. Watch ASML, posterboy of "european tech", being driven into irrelevance by self-imposed sanctions in the next few years.

Both things are true. Play the base, while on Rogan. Don’t play to the centrists next to Jennifer Combs Lopez.

I’m gonna go join AOC.

AOC is a faker. A party-machine careerist already. She could have stoon on principles and opposed teh genocidaire candidate. She supporter her instead. Look for those who stood on principles.

 

[Takhisis]

Who says they alienated anyone? Clearly they must be loved since they won the popular vote. I also don't see republicans peer pressuring or shaming anyone to not vote democrat.

The Republicans are against anyone-but-themselves so yes, they manage to alienate a lot of people socially.

But the US system legally excludes millions of voters so we'll never know. And it's orchestrated by them purposefully. It either disenfranchises them through gerrymandering or outright says ‘no, you can't vote’.

pretty sure Western leaders aren't being guilted but are giving their support with their eyes open

Yes, but there's an element of double-think based on guilt. ‘it's bad, but whatever. Donald Trump will just say ‘I don't give a @#$%, just make it worth my while’.

Trump's already bought by the looks of it

The Trump Campaign's Collusion With Israel

While US media fixated on Russian interference in the 2016 election, an Israeli secret agent's campaign to influence the outcome went unreported.

www.thenation.com

I suspected as much. A couple of weeks ago I wrote somewhere that Netanyahu can't not have been aware that his atrocities in Gaza make the Biden administration look bad and help it lose votes; I also knew that Israeli police have recently arrested underlings of Netanyahu's for derailing peace negotiations so everything pointed in this direction already.

 

[Sommerswerd]

anyhow

View attachment 708462

You can't blame your fight with @innonimatu on me. I rarely argue with inno (if ever). I challenge you to quote 3 posts where I am arguing with inno or trying to "convince you he is bad". You're definitely mixing me up with someone else... or just gaslighting me

 

[Kyriakos]

I like AOC but she has a 0% chance of being president. I know a lot of lefty people like to believe this fantasy that if the Dems just choose a socialist, everything will be good, but that’s just the lazy allure of not having to do years and decades of persuasion and recruiting to actually convince Americans that it can work here. It also weirdly means the party would get all the credit if AOC or Bernie was the nominee? It’s just dead end thinking. Every movement took years of work and organizing and brutal losses. Every single squad member has basically underperformed in their district; Omar does (even though she is great) and Cori Bush got primaried. Like I can dream of a Tlaib and AOC ticket but we are so, so far from that, with so much work to do.

Kamala was branded a communist by Trump. It literally doesn't matter if you self-identify as socialist as that angle will be used against any dem candidate (unless they turn openly fascist).

 

[Senethro]

Europe neutered itslef. As long s the EU exists, its member countries can't rebuilt capabilities. Sanctions on Russia are a very good example of why. They are harming the EU countries, not Russia. Russia got an economic boom for free, without the political cost to its government of having to internally impose a policy of protectionism. The russian government was kindly offered protectionism for free and took excellent advantage of it. Russia is now the largest economy in Europe, Germany is sinking. But you still want to live in fantasy land?

One of these days you're going to have to clarify if you think Russia's actions are good, successful and worth emulating, or if all your praise for them is purely because you hate the EU just that much!

 

[innonimatu]

Fear and hate will always win against positivity - unless they fail to bury the positivity. I still harboured hope that that isn't true, but it is. Plus you can't out moral crusade the traditional crusaders. When people who preach God for salary are working for the cause of billionaires, the moral arena will be a losing fight. Anti-abortion will win against anti-r***sm any time.

You are drawing a conclusion that is exactly wrong. Because you cling to pre-conceived ideas, the arrogance of "my tribe is the righfuil one". That's why this particular tribe never learns.

Project fear in this campaign was run by the democrats. Not by Trump's side. And fear lost. Harris' whole campaign could be summaried in "orange man evil. I am not orange man". In the end they went so far as to claim that Trump was the second coming of Hitler!

Trump complained a lot but his campagn was light and funny. His stunts were funny. Where he used fear was, as far as I could see from the news that I inevitably got to see here despite it not being my problem, in complaining about media censorship. And that was a very self-evident feat because it was happening. Had been happening for a long time, remember the infamous lapto about which "14 intelligence agencies", or almost the whole media, lied on the even of the previous election? The fear he agitated consistently at least had some reality, and was not even the manin focus of his election drive. The drive was still the "maga" thing.

Fear in election campaigns usually loses. Lost in this one. Those who cling to fake narratives will not learn any lessons and will continue to lose.

Kamala was branded a communist by Trump. It literally doesn't matter if you self-identify as socialist as that angle will be used against any dem candidate (unless they turn openly fascist).

There was that but I doubt anyone but some crazies who were alteary going to vote against her anyway even listened. That, and a whole lot of name-calling, was not deployed as fear but as circus to crowds of supporters. If the democrats bothered to really listen to Trump and see how he manages is speaking events they would have done better in running against him. They were too busy with fabricating something to attack him over using selective quiting. The ridiculous one I saw was about sending a chickenhawk to a battle, turned into a "firing squad". Another case of falling for one's own propagada!

 

[KaibaCorp]

Hilarious thread poll, the copium was strong in here.

Anyway, why Trump won, the simple answer:
-Harris had 0 ideas other than killing babies, which doesn't appeal to Americans. The moderate idea is legal in 3 instances: 1st trimester, rape, or medical necessity. 0 interviews first 35 days, then had to have her hand held by Walz or the journalists themselves who positively edited her answers. Meanwhile, Trump and Vance on daily interviews, including multiple hostile or long form.
-Americans don't like seeing biological men beat up women and invade their spaces, or seeing children get sterilized, mutilated and groomed by pedos
-In terms of real, hard power, America is on a downslope. You can't have clueless amateurs at the wheel, you need someone who understands negotiation and power.
-You also need someone who understands trade and how the looming end of the petrodollar would spell doom for a service-based, hyperfinancialized economy, hence the need to re-shore manufacturing to the US.
-Media hoaxes and control of speech. The Russia/laptop hoax, the Very fine people hoax, the Liz Cheney execution hoax, those are just three that come to mind immediately, but the hoaxes are endless and egregious, combined with a deep state attempt to control speech at every corner. Tim Walz: "Hate speech and disinformation are not covered by 1A" (false, as both are in the eye of the beholder), HR Clinton: "We're going to lose total control [of speech]". John Kerry: "The 1A is an obstacle". Facebook, old Twitter being co-opted by the Democrat White House / FBI.
-Wars. Americans have enough of those. None started under Trump I. Whereas horsehocky immediately hit the fan in Ukraine, Taiwan, and Palestine during Biden admin.
-An organization centered on love of the American ethos: Life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. In contrast, the Democrat party is a managerial death cult of anti-patriotic weirdos and warhawks. I am not talking about electors here who can be regular people on either side, but the more militant elements of each side.

OK chatgpt, stop doing Tucker Carlson and try Hulk Hogan now.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Which, to be clear, is not a change from what is currently happening.

Correct, except that as things currently stand, the US is at least periodically threatening to withdraw/reduce aid in an attempt to influence Israel's invasion/conduct in Gaza. There will probably be no more of that now. Whether that makes things worse for Palestinians remains to be seen. I am generally of the mindset that no matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.

I think Netanyahu was holding out to see if Trump won, so maybe it actually works out better for Palestinians somehow. I am not dismissing hope for Palestine that maybe it was Netanyahu's plan to wait for Trump to win, then let Trump take credit for a cease-fire, in exchange for Trump's help with him staying in power.

are you saying he didn't have it before?

No, because the US/Biden was repeatedly issuing threats to reduce and/or cut off military aid to Israel as a result of their treatment of Palestinians. I can't say what influence or change that produced in Israel's actions in Gaza because it would just be speculation, but whatever impact it had, it won't be the same with Trump in office.

However, again since I think Netanyahu was holding out to see if Trump won, I am not dismissing the sliver of hope that the Palestinians will get some relief now that the credit can go to Trump instead of Biden. Maybe Trump just outright has a better relationship with Netanyahu and can broker some sort of cease fire, maybe Trump goes ahead and cuts or threatens to cut military aid and Netanyahu takes it more seriously because its Trump... who knows.

At this point Trump has won so no use in complaining about that. I'm just hoping that it works out for the better for the Palestinian people somehow.

This is an honest question and you may not have an answer but how could they possibly go more moderate than they did this time?

Beats me. Maybe just go more conservative? I don't have an answer because I don't see how they could go more moderate. They were campaigning with Republicans, accepting endorsements from Cheney, promoting fracking, on and on. Harris promised to put a Republican in her cabinet. Just keep in mind that just because we can't picture how they could get more moderate, doesn't mean that it can't be done. Again, no matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.

 

[Senethro]

OK chatgpt, stop doing Tucker Carlson and try Hulk Hogan now.

I have to admit I'm a bit curious about Voidwalkin's take on this type of guy. Is he just noisy but ultimately unimportant or is he a core part of the Republican base?