Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

Who do you think will win in November?


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Yeah the closest thing to a critical mistake Harris made was that interview with The View “I wouldn’t have done anything different” or whatever. That became an ad everywhere. Voters really badly wanted something different, which she felt like when she first announced. She should have thrown Biden to the wolves. Said she was tired of his old age bs or something.
That may have been the death knell right there. She needed to differentiate/separate herself from Biden by a wide margin. Also, I don't watch a great deal of TV, mainly sports leading up to the election, but everything I watched was inundated with Trump ads. I recall seeing one Harris ad and it wasn't very impressive.
 
Ace's post is pretty representative of how many religious Americans view abortion. Other views expressed, that the left hates aspects of American culture and is supported by media, including social media, bureacratic elites, the managerial class and various other powerful forces in society are pretty standard right wing beliefs.

Not quite an answer to my question - and also not characterizing any thing as extreme or alienating. Hmmm!
 
There were a TON of Harris ads in Michigan. Most were ok; she focused on medicare and abortion pretty hardcore, those are winning subjects. She avoided doing character ads like Clinton did. But she needed to address inflation head on and do so in a way that separated her from Biden. “I am running because I know you are frustrated with Biden and Trump, because you are tired of the same candidates, I am that new candidate, and I am running on my own platform that does not involve Biden or Trump in any way. I’m younger and not your typical candidate of the last 10 years, and I am here to bring the hammer down on grocery stores that aggressively raise prices.” Something like that. Not “yeah I guess I can be Biden 2.0.”
 
Yeah the closest thing to a critical mistake Harris made was that interview with The View “I wouldn’t have done anything different” or whatever. That became an ad everywhere. Voters really badly wanted something different, which she felt like when she first announced. She should have thrown Biden to the wolves. Said she was tired of his old age bs or something.
I barely followed pre-election news at all, but Harris's statement on The View was like nearly a ticking time bomb to my ears and saying that she was in real trouble...
 
Yeah, maybe cause I'm DC Metro, Trump pummelled us harder here
 
I was thinking the same thing :lol:

Actually, what I need a forward-looking thread for is rumination on how Trump might operate in office in this second term. That's what I've been mulling this morning.

At the center of my still-hazy thinking is wondering whether Trump will be motivated to do much of anything at all. First, he's already achieved the primary thing that motivated this run: Merchan now won't sentence him to prison time, and he can dismiss all the other cases. He's never been much motivated by the work of the job, except to create the impression that he's being successful. He won't be campaigning any more, and I think that might make a difference. He's very motivated by seeking people's approval, but the consequential form of approval is being elected and he can't shoot for that again. (There will maybe be some idle talk of repealing the 22nd amendment). He might invent some pretext for holding rallies, but it will probably feel a little flat because they'll be inconsequential. He'll mostly just want to golf and not be bothered, I would think.

I mean early on he'll end the war in Ukraine (by telling Zelensky we're not going to fund him any more, so seek the best deal he can with Russia). He'll bring peace to the middle east (since there has to be some point when Israel thinks it has achieved its military objectives, and that moment will fall during Trump's term; he'll be happy to package that as him ending the war that Biden couldn't). I think he'll have to make a show of deporting a bunch of people, but that may not prove as popular when people see it as it is when people think of it in the abstract, so if there's a PR downside, he'll just declare that issue solved and his followers will care as little as they care that the wall didn't get built.

He'll have no interest in grooming a successor or bolstering the R party. I'm not sure he thinks in terms of legacy, and to the extent that he does, he'll just tell himself that whatever happens during his term is the best in the history of the country, and maybe not actively go after very much.

I just think we might see a ton of golfing and not much attempt to get anything done. Now don't get me wrong, if I'm correct, a bunch of evil will get done by the people in whose hands he leaves the government.

But I just think he himself might default to his baseline laziness, again since just by winning he's achieved the primary objective he had for running in the first place.

Dunno.
There you are. This post didn't age well :sad:
He's not winning. The polls seeming to show so are inaccurate, and not accounting for a turnout imbalance. Both.

(I realize that I will not have my vindication on this point until election day.)
 
There you are. This post didn't age well :sad:
Oh, I was very outspoken about my expectations, and I was wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

My first post in the "Watch Party" Thread repeated my overall predictions and I thought about posting each element of it and putting Wrong! next to it. If you need me to do that, I will, but it would really just amount to wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

It's funny because I have this little slogan that, in any presidential election, there are only ever two issues: economy and security. And Dems were on the wrong side of both of those. The inflation that followed Covid people experienced during Biden's presidency and they associate it with him (and her), so she was down on that (though the measures are positive, people don't feel that). And the border is this election's security issue. On both, Trump gets the advantage because, for whatever reason, he gets to say "I'll fix that," and even when his ideas for doing so are bats**t crazy, he still gets credit.

I thought abortion would matter more than it did. I thought Trump's lawlessness would matter more than it did. And I thought that a ton of people who had been frustrated with the age of both candidates would happily gravitate to a younger one, if offered. But Trump projects vitality, so that didn't end up mattering much.
 
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And Dems have presented themselves as more immediate threat to many constituents in quite a few cases lately. Sometimes, because they were in power, sometimes because they backed the wrong, I mean more immediately hostile horse on some issue (like the BLM riots), sometimes because they did not distance themselves from the more extreme opinions on some issues and let Reps blow that out of proportion (abortion issue).

And the Republicans haven't presented themselves as a threat to constituents, whether by passing full abortion bans or threatening mass deportations or literally every other policy they have that's just "we are want to eat some people's faces"?

I'm going to disagree with you here. This time it was "it's the safety, stupid". To put it bluntly, between BLM, border issues and some state or county level policies on law enforcement that could only charitably be called "woke", people just didn't feel safe under Democrat rule.

Which again just goes to show what many others have been saying that the facts don't actually matter, because crime has been falling for a while and the Democrats aren't much less conservative on immigration these days than the Republicans are. They tried to pass a conservative border bill and the Republicans wouldn't go along with it so they could keep blaming the border on the Democrats! And not of it matters because to far too much of the electorate, feels over reals
 
A lot of this is honestly messaging and lying. If Dems really want to go the electorally smart path it’s;
Pro medicare, medicaid, social security
Protecting abortion
Legal weed
Endless oil drilling
A complete immigration shutdown
Tons of money for cops and way harsher prison sentences
Agree with all but harsher prison sentences which I don't think there's appetite for.
Just say you will do it! All the time! Everywhere! There is literally no cost to saying it, and with inflation cooled off you could take credit for it in a second term even if you never did it.
The critical thing is that people actually believe you're fighting for them regardless of what is said. There seems to be little sense of that. It's why I'm bigger on class than most. Convince people you're fighting for them on class issues and a majority usually support you. It's a more consistent path to victory than policy wonkery, but requires you to be committed to populism and remain in touch with the larger public and their concerns rather than your ideology to a greater extent than many would prefer.
Not quite an answer to my question - and also not characterizing any thing as extreme or alienating. Hmmm!
None of it is particularly extreme within the context of American politics. I've encountered much weirder positions in the wild. Alienating is a different matter I was not asked to give commentary on. Any position based on the moral leanings of a minority will be alienating.
 
Oh, I was very outspoken about my expectations, and I was wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

My first post in the "Watch Party" Thread repeated my overall predictions and I thought about posting each element of it and putting Wrong! next to it. If you need me to do that, I will, but it would really just amount to wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

It's funny because I have this little slogan that, in any presidential election, there are only ever two issues: economy and security. And Dems were on the wrong side of both of those. The inflation that followed Covid people experienced during Biden's presidency and they associate it with him (and her), so she was down on that (though the measures are positive, people don't feel that). And the border is this election's security issue. On both, Trump gets the advantage because, for whatever reason, he gets to say "I'll fix that," and even when his ideas for doing so are bats**t crazy, he still gets credit.

I thought abortion would matter more than it did. I thought Trump's lawlessness would matter more than it did. And I thought that a ton of people who had been frustrated with the age of both candidates would happily gravitate to a younger one, if offered. But Trump projects vitality, so that didn't end up mattering much.
Tbf, on that last point, while 60 is 20 years younger than 80, it's still not young at all ^^
I do wonder if Kamala wanted to run. It's clear she couldn't decline the offer.
She never seemed to be the person who would enjoy an actual campaign in the first place (yes, I know she did try to get the nomination in 2020).
 
Harris is giving her concession speech right now.
I’m gonna have to end up watching it later after work.

Say, you don’t have any more of that booze left over from last night?
 
I’m gonna have to end up watching it later after work.

Say, you don’t have any more of that booze left over from last night?
TL;DR - She explicitly told the crowd to accept the result of the election, she stated that she called Trump to congratulate him on his victory, she concedes the election and will assist in the transition and the peaceful transfer of power. She told the crowd that its going to be OK and they should keep working to make the world a better place.

Plenty of booze left, you're welcome to partake. They mercifully called the election so early compared to last cycle so I didn't have to drink all of it.:p

EDIT - Short and sweet. About 12 mins total and very positive overall.
 
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I fear that it is not yet realized that Biden only won due to the pandemic. The spin that 2020 was evidence of voting pattern changes should die now.
Leads to the intriguing question of what shifts you think have occurred and are likely to continue, of course.
 
I fear that it is not yet realized that Biden only won due to the pandemic. The spin that 2020 was evidence of voting pattern changes should die now.
You really think that folks don't realize the role the pandemic played in the 2020 election? Or are you just speaking rhetorically? There were a number of factors, like sustained civil unrest, specifically the BLM protests, but of course the pandemic created so many issues, lockdowns, remote schooling, masks, vaccines and all the fighting over those issues is a big part of why there was record turnout in the 2020 election.

Again, Biden in 2020 got about 15 million more votes than Harris did this cycle, and she lost by about 5 million votes, which is more than what Hillary won the popular vote by in 2016. So to @innonimatu 's predictions, you can argue about whether its a "landslide", but there is no disputing that he won in resounding fashion.
 
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As others have pointed out, seems more likely "the economy" and voters' simplistic understanding of it and how we affect is what made folks vote for trump. And probably what made people vote for Biden in 2020.
 
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