Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!
- Thread starter Birdjaguar
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His big debut was at the 04 convention you mention. Everyone who saw his speech at the 04 DNC was thinking "Wow! Why isn't this guy our candidate?!?
" The iconic final line from the speech is the quote "Not red states and blue states... we are the United States"... He really brought the house down with that speech. Then he re-released/published a book he had previously written, "Dreams from My Father" to critical acclaim, which further elevated him to celebrity-politician status and set him up for his Presidential campaign.
GoodEnoughForMe
n.m.s.s.
Yeah the internal house projections from his camp if he stayed on top leaked the other day and showed like 160-170 Dem House seats is all. His advisors all knew it would be a bloodbath.
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
Trump wants to use a 226-year-old law to deport millions of undocumented migrants. Can he do it?
U.S. president-elect has vowed 'largest deportation program in American history'
Donald Trump's pathway to deporting millions of undocumented migrants may hinge on a 226-year-old law that was last used to detain non-citizens of Japanese, German and Italian descent during the Second World War.The 1798 Alien Enemies Act is a potential tool the U.S. president-elect has said he will use to try to make good on one of his key campaign pledges that otherwise could be stalled significantly by the legal machinations of the deportation process.
"If Trump were to try to use the normal procedures, it would [be to] round up a lot of people and put them into immigration court proceedings," said Stephen Yale-Loehr, a professor of immigration law at Cornell University.
"But it would be a long time before they could actually be deported."
According to the Center for Migration Studies, there were around 11.7 million undocumented migrants in the U.S. as of July 2023.
Trump has said that on day one of his presidency, he will "launch the largest deportation program in American history." To that end, he recently announced that Tom Homan, who was acting head of Immigration and Customs Enforcement during Trump's first administration, would be his border czar.
Homan has previously said that he would be willing to "run the biggest deportation operation this country's ever seen."
Slow, expensive procedure
But because due process under the U.S. Constitution applies to everyone, not just citizens, those who have been accused of being undocumented migrants must go through immigration court proceedings, Yale-Loehr says.During those proceedings, an immigration judge decides whether those individuals are deportable or have some relief from deportation, such as asylum, he says.
Currently, however, there is a backlog of 3.7 million cases in the immigration courts, according to the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University, which compiles statistics on immigration. Meanwhile, the U.S. Justice Department estimates there are only approximately 700 immigration judges in the country's 71 immigration courts.
"Many cases are being scheduled for four or five years from now," Yale-Loehr said.
That means if Trump follows current deportation procedures, he will need money to hire more immigration agents, build more detention centres and hire more immigration judges, he says.
It could be an extremely costly endeavour. The American Immigration Council estimates that a one-time mass deportation operation, which would include expenses for arrest, detention, legal processing and removal — would cost more than $300 billion US.
A legal shortcut
That may be why Trump, in order to carry out mass deportations, may seek to circumvent the system by invoking the Alien Enemies Act, which was enacted when the U.S. and France were on the verge of war in the late 1700s.Amid concern about potential French supporters living in the U.S. at that time, the law sought to to prevent foreign espionage and sabotage in wartime. It permits the president to target those individuals without a hearing, based only on their country of birth or citizenship, says Katherine Yon Ebright, counsel for the Brennan Center's Liberty and National Security Program.
The president may invoke the act in times of "declared war" or when a foreign government threatens or undertakes an "invasion" or "predatory incursion" against U.S. territory, Ebright recently wrote in a report for the Brennan Center, a nonpartisan law and justice institute.
Another requirement is that the invasion or incursion must be perpetrated by a foreign nation or government, Ebright noted.
The act has been used three times — the War of 1812, the First World War and lastly during the Second World War, when President Franklin D Roosevelt used it to deem Japanese, German and Italian non-citizens as "alien enemies" and arrest them.
Ebright says Trump and others have for years been trying to characterize unlawful migration and cartel activity at the southern border as an "invasion."
"They're saying, 'Well, because there's an invasion at the southern border, we can invoke the Alien Enemies Act against the perpetrators of that invasion. Then we can unlock that massive power to do summary detentions and deportations.'" Ebright told CBC News.
But she says the Brennan Center and other organizations are prepared to challenge Trump in court if he invokes the act, and would argue that it's being improperly invoked.
"There, in fact, is no invasion within the meaning of the law," she said.
"There is no foreign nation or government that is perpetrating this supposed invasion," she said, adding that gangs, cartels or undocumented migrants shouldn't be considered foreign nations or governments.
Yale-Loehr echoes that, currently, the U.S. has not made any declaration of war against immigrants and that Trump would have to, by analogy, say that trying to deport immigrants is akin to war.
- Trump's border czar says Canadian border is an 'extreme' vulnerability
- Analysis
How Trump's promise of mass deportations could affect Canada's border - CBC Investigates
This New York farmer is overwhelmed by illegal crossings from Canada, caught on camera
Motomura says the so-called invasion wouldn't be referring to people who are just showing up in caravans at the border, but to people who have been in the U.S. for a long time.
"If there was an invasion, and i don't think there was, it was 10 years ago. Or something like that," he said.
However, Ebright did say that courts could decide these are political questions that are outside the scope of what the courts can resolve, meaning Trump's argument could prevail.
But he would still face the same logistical challenges, Yale-Loehr said.
"You're still going to have to have some place to detain all these people and you're going to have to have planes to fly them out. So, again, you could eventually deport a lot of people this way, but it's not going to all happen on day one of the presidency."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/trump-deportations-alien-enemies-1798-law-1.7383333
Sarin
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Oops. Nope. Result of having several tabs open. Should've gone to invasion of Ukraine thread.
Voidwalkin
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Party Under Country: Dissecting the Democratic Malaise
The party continues to operate in an overcredentialied fever dream in the face of an America becoming ever more red in tooth and claw
www.thenation.com
Long post mortem on the election. Had some interesting ideas. I don't agree with all of them. Good on the bases, misses a few marks when building complexities on top of those bases.
Do agree with what I think the core point is: Dems as credentialed, pro-social aristocrats peddling beliefs and consensuses common only to certain classes, while confidence in those beliefs outside have collapsed.
The dem party, either due to lack of ability or lack of interest to change, had (usually not tacitly) relied on being in general a supposed champion of minorities, but those minorities - particularly the latino one - are more conservative-leaning due to their background. I suppose that the same is at least as true, if not more, for black people, although for historical reasons they are stuck with the dem party in far larger percentages. The dem party leadership, however, is not at all willing to allow the message of being pro-working class (regardless if those workers are minority or not) to supersede the minority message. It's pretty ridiculous how some reacted to Bernie when he (again) spoke of the need to be tied to the working class, eg here is a rather awful git:
You can smell bought spokesmen for lobby groups 1K kilometers away.
Those with a working memory will also recall that Bernie was attacked while he was running to be the candidate, as supposedly not caring enough about minorities.
You can smell bought spokesmen for lobby groups 1K kilometers away.
Those with a working memory will also recall that Bernie was attacked while he was running to be the candidate, as supposedly not caring enough about minorities.
Do we have total vote counts yet at the national level?
Voidwalkin
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He still is.
Disagree, minorly. It is not the leadership solely, it's a larger school of influential thinkers in the intelligentsia. Old left in America is dead.
"Workers of the world unite" was thought to be impossible because of identity differences. Modern left does not appear to have made any headway in bridging these divides outside of those subject to corporate power structures. "Workers quarrel over what is and isn't sexist and racist" is not a catchy slogan, but does appear to be the reality, often with those who actually do low-wage hourly work defending themselves against the salaried.
Not a tenable blueprint imo but I don't see it changing much, either.
Nope. Most states are 99% in but California is still only 89% counted. Trump is at 76 million+ votes so far and Harris is at 73 million+. Harris' current total is still under Trump's 2020 total.
https://apps.npr.org/2024-election-results/presidentMaps.html
stfoskey12
Emperor of Foskania
What I find interesting is that Republicans won the popular vote, House of Representatives, and Senate by larger margins in 2004 than in 2024. But this victory feels more decisive, most likely because the Republican party is more extreme now, and it seems like Republicans are less likely to disagree with the president these days. Plus the incumbent party lost. But I was a kid in 2004, so I'm just going off how people talk about it historically.
aelf
Ashen One
I don't think you know what you're talking about.
So is the Old West. So what?
Wars change and so do they ways to fight them. There's nothing surprising about it.
If California's still at 89% that would mean there's, based on the current counts in California, something like 1.5 million votes still to count there, and probably at least a few hundred thousand scattered across the other somewhat high population states that haven't fully counted yet, and on that link it looks like the uncounted votes are heavily weighted toward blue states. So there's a decent chance she still passes Trump's 2020 total, but likely not by much.
There was a pretty deliciously awful (ie both funny and revolting) line some panelist in NBC angrily said right after Trump won: "Trump is really good at beating women"...
In other words, pseudo-discussion in US media is even more entrenched than the dem party's leadership.
Voidwalkin
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Mainstream media, yeah. Thoughtful commentary does exist, but it's not found on cable news. Have to go pretty deep for it.
Liberals Are Giving Up on America
In their despair at Donald Trump’s victory, liberal pundits are concluding that the masses, especially the working class, are irredeemably terrible. That’s apolitical nonsense.
jacobin.com
Some of the recent commentary on the left I've liked. I liked the above article, from the leftmost site to frequently grace the sacred pages of CFC OT. Far as I can tell the average reaction to the 2024 election by self-identified modern leftists was to call America irredeemably racist(in less flattering terms), which the article describes as the "liberal reaction". That is... something of a misrepresentation as it pretends the left reacted differently, probably one the author makes knowingly, but I forgive it, because at least the author is trying to push readers as a decent propagandist would.
Lexicus
Deity
Mainstream media, yeah. Thoughtful commentary does exist, but it's not found on cable news. Have to go pretty deep for it.
Liberals Are Giving Up on America
In their despair at Donald Trump’s victory, liberal pundits are concluding that the masses, especially the working class, are irredeemably terrible. That’s apolitical nonsense.
Some of the recent commentary on the left I've liked. I liked the above article, from the leftmost site to frequently grace the sacred pages of CFC OT. Far as I can tell the average reaction to the 2024 election by self-identified modern leftists was to call America irredeemably racist(in less flattering terms), which the article describes as the "liberal reaction". That is... something of a misrepresentation as it pretends the left reacted differently, probably one the author makes knowingly, but I forgive it, because at least the author is trying to push readers as a decent propagandist would.
This article is calling for a socialist platform to win over a working-class majority. As someone who has stated that moving past capitalism is impossible because capitalism is the result of human biology, how do you reconcile this? Don't you think it would be a bad idea to run on a platform that can't be delievered on without genetically transforming the human species?
I am a lot further left than Liza Featherstone. I'm glad she still has faith in this country's institutions. I don't, and I don't believe Trumpism will be defeated via electoral politics or by working within the constitution. It's the country's institutions that I see as irredeemably evil, not its people.
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Voidwalkin
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1. I may be incorrect and Rober will prove correct
2. It is often beneficial to make an effort to overcome Instinct even if the effort is doomed to fall short.
Policies fairly called socialist could be said to be beneficial(if not authoritarian in nature but emergent by democratic consensus).
These policies can only garner sufficient support if class transcends traditional identities, in my estimation. This has not happened, nor have current efforts helped. The focus, the point of impact of the left in America is not perceived to be general exploitation in a class structure, but exploitation on basis of traditional identity groups. Often it is just that. Just less upside to using those identities. Too vulnerable.
Used to work at Walmart, briefly. Somebody left a pamphlet by the American Communist party behind the dog food. This was brought to me because nobody knew what to make of it. They all know what woke is, and this is not a result of propaganda: it is where the effort is.
Lexicus
Deity
I have to echo @Senethro, the claim that this is primarily due to "online activists" and not how the forces of capital have acted over the last century or so to ruthlessly crush the anticapitalist left is not really worthy of serious discussion. When we add to this the fact that you are insisting we cannot move beyond capitalism as a matter of biological fact, we start to really get through the Discourse looking-glass.
A further layer of irony is added by the fact that you're ostensibly calling for a more material politics, but your diagnosis of the election is that Bad People on Twitter made the Democrats look CRAZY to normal people by talking about TRANS RIGHTS too much. Well, my diagnosis is that liberalism has no real toolkit for dealing with the inflation we got hit by during the Biden years. The only real solution to inflation that does not involve simply immiserating working people (kind of what Biden did, though I guess they do deserve credit for not causing a recession so far) involves government intervention in the economy in ways that certainly violate some of the sacred taboos of (neo)liberalism.
Which one of these seems more materialist? Which one lends itself to a politics that can unite nearly everyone in their common interest against the people inflicting misery on the rest of us by hiking prices to pad their profit margins?
Oerdin
Deity
Hind sight? I had been saying there was going to be a Trump landslide before Biden was forced out. I doubled that when they installed that idiot Harris as the nominee.
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