Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Cutlass]

Well Mr Trump that sounds like the doggerel that a four year old child might say. "Are you sure you are not entering your second childhood ?

He never left his first.

 

[EnglishEdward]

But for Kamala Harris to actually say that would be unwise as it would merely
look like insulting the american public by saying that they voted for a child.

 

[Cutlass]

They did vote for a child. And most of them even know that. But that child 'owned the libs', so they don't care.

 

[Lexicus]

Cc @Sommerswerd & @Hygro

In the context of the election something we haven't talked about is covid killing off a lot of older people, who tend to be both Republicans and high-propensity voters...there was an actual peer-reviewed paper published that found covid measurably affected Trump's vote in 2020 compared to 2016 looking at the county level.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election - PMC

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Given that the pandemic isn't really over, and that death rates have been markedly different by partisan affiliation ever since the vaccines became widely available, does anyone think there might be a covid-effect on the vote in 2024?

 

[Voidwalkin]

Yeah, people say Harris will "mop the floor with him." I'll be pleasantly surprised if that turns out to be true, but I kind of doubt there's much anyone really can do. If q6anyone he's faced can, she can.

If she is going to debate, it is critical that it is strictly moderated. Not simply fact checking alone. A check against Trumps interruptions and insults must be present.

Her success as a prosecutor all happened within a strictly moderated environment, where there's a judge to bang the gavel and compel, not simply demand, order in the court, should the rules of civility not be followed. If something comparable is not the debate environment, I think it's entirely plausible Trump gets the better of her.

It's almost like taking an MMA fighter and putting them in a boxing ring. Totally different rule set, and although similar, many of the skills the MMA fighter developed aren't transferable to the new style of the contest.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Given that the pandemic isn't really over, and that death rates have been markedly different by partisan affiliation ever since the vaccines became widely available, does anyone think there might be a covid-effect on the vote in 2024?

I do. 10k votes here, 30k there. Not insignificant.

I wonder, though, if it isn't offset by people who moved right during the lockdown/masking period in opposition to these measures.

I think Trump's been able to expand MAGA with gen X pretty successfully, too, partly due to the above. Gained 3 pts between Clinton and Biden, and though I've yet to see data by generation in current polls, by intuition, I think he may have made further gains.

 

[Core Imposter]

This has been the case with Trump since the 2016 race. When he originally announced his candidacy it was widely regarded as a joke, a publicity stunt, a mockery and similar... but the news media covered it breathlessly nonetheless, because it was highly entertaining and was drawing big ratings. It was a ridiculous spectacle that the media just couldn't get enough of.

It was that non-stop coverage of Trump at the beginning which elevated him from a joke/novelty act, into a legitimate candidate and ultimately the frontrunner, taking center stage in all the debates. The news media created the monster... and then he ate them. If the news media had acted with a shred of integrity from the beginning, they would have largely ignored Trump and his antics and his candidacy would have likely petered out.

The media colluded with the Democrats to promote Trump because he was the one that Hillary couldn't lose too. Collusion, they have less integrity than you think they have, less than a shred of a shred.

 

[Cutlass]

The media colluded with the Democrats to promote Trump because he was the one that Hillary couldn't lose too. Collusion, they have less integrity than you think they have, less than a shred of a shred.

That only applies to Fox, Newsmax, OAN, NY Post, Sinclair Broadcasting, and AM talk radio.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Cc @Sommerswerd & @Hygro

In the context of the election something we haven't talked about is covid killing off a lot of older people, who tend to be both Republicans and high-propensity voters...there was an actual peer-reviewed paper published that found covid measurably affected Trump's vote in 2020 compared to 2016 looking at the county level.

The COVID-19 pandemic and the 2020 US presidential election - PMC

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 US presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID-19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Talk about one of the great ironies of our time...

 

[Farm Boy]

The culling of one's young takes a longer cycle. Numbers are up! Congratulations.

 

[Lexicus]

The culling of one's young takes a longer cycle. Numbers are up! Congratulations.

Who are you congratulating? I met some right-wing men about my age playing Pokemon Go in 2021, and I urged them to get vaccinated when the subject came up.

 

[Sommerswerd]

The culling of one's young takes a longer cycle. Numbers are up! Congratulations.

Its ironic because he did it to his own voters, the people who loved and supported him the most. He killed them for it... because he encouraged them to ignore the danger... because he thought encouraging them to ignore the danger would benefit him with their votes.. but it didn't... because they died, thus denying him their votes. That's the irony. I'm not happy about him killing people. I'd rather he won and all those people lived.

 

[Birdjaguar]

Kamala should jsut keep referring to Trump as a x34 convicted felon and sex offender.

"May I remind you Mr. Trump that you are a 34x convicted felon, a sex offender and not qualified to handle top secret government documents? Oh, What was the question....." In response to every question.

 

[Farm Boy]

Its ironic because he did it to his own voters, the people who loved and supported him the most. He killed them for it... because he encouraged them to ignore the danger... because he thought encouraging them to ignore the danger would benefit him with their votes.. but it didn't... because they died, thus denying him their votes. That's the irony. I'm not happy about him killing people. I'd rather he won and all those people lived.

I was noting a longer political fatality cycle and complimenting a policy victory. Hard fought. Well earned, those numbers. The polls too: can't keep it up without some excitement.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Honest excitement over an honest Democrat gaining an honest political advance?

 

[Kupe Navigator]

How is Montana senate election going for Dem? Loss?

 

[Birdjaguar]

How is Montana senate election going for Dem? Loss?

The Republican carpetbagger will have a tough time.

 

[Narz]

And that's a big part of O'Donnell's point: that the press should know better by now.

Why would they? They're in the business of clicks & eyeballs, Trump's the best thing that happened to them

Maybe she'd do best to joyously talk about what she plans to do on behalf of the American people.

Don't need to be "joyous" but yeah focus on policy, jobs, legal weed, education, families, veterans, don't try to argue all the BS not enough time, just blanket say "yeah that's mostly lies, don't have time to go into it all now" & then flip to policy stuff

 

[Kupe Navigator]

The Republican carpetbagger will have a tough time.

Wait... Republican? Shouldn't it be Democrats? Isn't Dem Senator behind the poll?

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Its ironic because he did it to his own voters, the people who loved and supported him the most. He killed them for it... because he encouraged them to ignore the danger... because he thought encouraging them to ignore the danger would benefit him with their votes.. but it didn't... because they died, thus denying him their votes. That's the irony. I'm not happy about him killing people. I'd rather he won and all those people lived.

He held rallies during covid. Estimated to have caused 700 dead.