Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!
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aelf
Ashen One
That's what I thought when I saw your post.
538 has Harris ahead today by 2.9%, RCP has her ahead by 2.0%. We know that Hillary's 2.1% vote lead wasn't good enough in 2016 and Obama's 3.9% vote lead was plenty good in 2012.
All the polls 538 is counting show Harris leading by at least 2 points, with most showing her leading by 4 points or more, with the exception of the new Atlas Intel polls 538 is counting. An interesting twist, is that 538 is counting two different Atlas Intel polls, taken at the same time, which RCP generally does not do. RCP has the Atlas Intel poll counted once, along with the Rasmussen poll of course and a New York Times/Sienna poll, all three in favor of Trump. The rest of the polls are in favor of Harris.
Another development, is that many of the polls are starting to show Harris with 50% or over 50% of the vote. Previously, regardless of who was leading, neither candidate was showing a majority of the vote in most polls.
All the polls 538 is counting show Harris leading by at least 2 points, with most showing her leading by 4 points or more, with the exception of the new Atlas Intel polls 538 is counting. An interesting twist, is that 538 is counting two different Atlas Intel polls, taken at the same time, which RCP generally does not do. RCP has the Atlas Intel poll counted once, along with the Rasmussen poll of course and a New York Times/Sienna poll, all three in favor of Trump. The rest of the polls are in favor of Harris.
Another development, is that many of the polls are starting to show Harris with 50% or over 50% of the vote. Previously, regardless of who was leading, neither candidate was showing a majority of the vote in most polls.
Lexicus
Deity
Is this country really so racist and twisted that Harris has calculated that making a simple statement defending the humanity and dignity of Haitian (and all other) immigrants from these racist attacks by Trump/Vance would be too damaging?
It just feels to me like the fact that Vance, a sitting US Senator, trying to incite a pogrom against a group of his own constituents should be a bigger deal in the campaign than it has been.
More broadly, the fact that Democratic pushback against Republican xenophobia has been to say "well actually we wanted to brutalize immigrants but your presidential nominee sabotaged our legislation to do that" is concerning. The closest the Democrats have come to defending immigrants is to say "well without them who would we exploit for cheap labor?"
I kind of hate it here
It just feels to me like the fact that Vance, a sitting US Senator, trying to incite a pogrom against a group of his own constituents should be a bigger deal in the campaign than it has been.
More broadly, the fact that Democratic pushback against Republican xenophobia has been to say "well actually we wanted to brutalize immigrants but your presidential nominee sabotaged our legislation to do that" is concerning. The closest the Democrats have come to defending immigrants is to say "well without them who would we exploit for cheap labor?"
I kind of hate it here
Another way of looking at it... is to ask if Trump and Vance believe the country is so racist that they can actually gain votes by attacking Haitian immigrants with lies about them eating dogs and stealing people's pets to use for food?
Obviously a rhetorical question... you already know the answer...
On a related note, they had a Haitian woman from Springfield on CNN this morning and she was talking about how difficult and bewildering it was to have to answer young Haitian children who were being harassed about this and asking if someone they knew was eating dogs.
On another related note, J.D. Vance admitted explicitly on the news while being interviewed that he was making this stuff up, in order to create content that, according to him, would draw attention to the immigration problem. What.A.Scumbag.
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Voidwalkin
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Can you line up against the racism while sidestepping wider conversations about changing times and communities? I think probably. Trump's claim was specific enough that the falseness of it leaves it open to ridicule.
I think there's more consensus that weed should be legal than immigration is good, though, tbh. In America, a statement like "I like my community how it is and I don't want it to change" would be called racist by some and perfectly acceptable by others. Trump wants that value clash. Seems she wants abortion most in focus. For better or worse. I felt that was the only subject she got animated about during the debate. It's probably where her heart is most and it is also her most winning issue, so I kinda get it.
The situation reminds me of two famous alleged Sun Tzu quotes:
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"
and
"If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.'"
I'm getting the impression that the Harris campaign is just trying to carefully allow the Trump/Vance campaign to self-immolate, while they try to attract people off the fences and sidelines to vote for Harris/Walz.
They're trying to be bold and outspoken on non-controversial/popular things while trying to be nimble and vague with regard to controversial issues, or issues Democrats are weak on, like immigration. They want to do as little talking as possible about immigration related issues, because that's Trump's strongest issue, by far.
Just sit back and let Trump shoot himself in the **** on the very thing that was supposed to be his strongest suit. Don't interrupt him or say anything to take the attention off on the insane lies he is telling. I mean there was just another assassination attempt and the news is still playing clips of him going off the rails in the debate and ranting about people eating dogs. That's how compelling a story it is.
[snip] @Lexicus - I'll move it to the assaination thread.
"Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake"
and
"If you wait by the river long enough, the bodies of your enemies will float by.'"
I'm getting the impression that the Harris campaign is just trying to carefully allow the Trump/Vance campaign to self-immolate, while they try to attract people off the fences and sidelines to vote for Harris/Walz.
They're trying to be bold and outspoken on non-controversial/popular things while trying to be nimble and vague with regard to controversial issues, or issues Democrats are weak on, like immigration. They want to do as little talking as possible about immigration related issues, because that's Trump's strongest issue, by far.
Just sit back and let Trump shoot himself in the **** on the very thing that was supposed to be his strongest suit. Don't interrupt him or say anything to take the attention off on the insane lies he is telling. I mean there was just another assassination attempt and the news is still playing clips of him going off the rails in the debate and ranting about people eating dogs. That's how compelling a story it is.
[snip] @Lexicus - I'll move it to the assaination thread.
Also remember that Harris got booed and jeered during her own nomination acceptance speech at the DNC, for making a simple statement defending the humanity and dignity of the Palestinian people.
So again, I think we have the answer to the question...
Give it a go then. I think there's a technical possibility, but I think it's contextual and that you can't defend it by handwaving on the mere existence of a hypothetical.
I sure hope your "community" line wasn't your go at it. If so, have a better go.
Voidwalkin
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? I don't follow. I told you she could. There's enough there to attack it.
There also isn't much doubt Trump would love to have any sort of immigration debate. It's his chosen battlefield. Opinion is deeply divided on the matter and not in a way particularly advantageous to Dems.
So what you're saying is that Lexi's suggestion is correct. That the country is so racist and twisted that such a lack of advantage translates into a material lack of action. No?
Voidwalkin
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Depends who you ask, I guess. If someone believes all anti-immigration positions are motivated by racism, sure, you could call it that. I don't think all anti-immigration positions are motivated by racism, though.
Lexicus
Deity
Perhaps in a metaphysical sense this is true, however the Haitian thing is absolutely racist, so obviously that I have to agree with the idea I saw on twitter that they are basically just using "Haitian" to mean the n word at this point.
But more broadly, anti-immigrant politics in America in 2024 are definitely all motivated by racism, increasingly openly so. Failure to recognize this is....sus
Broken_Erika
Play with me.
Suspicious packages sent to election officials across US
The FBI and the US Postal Department are investigating suspicious packages received by election officials in 17 states.Federal investigators said they were collecting the packages and that some contained “an unknown substance”, though there were no reports of injuries.
They were sent to secretaries of state and state election officials across a swathe of the country from New York to Alaska.
It comes amid reports of rising threats directed at election officials across the US and warnings of political violence as November's presidential election approaches.
The FBI and US Postal Department said they were trying to determine how many letters were sent and who was behind them, as well as their motive.
“Some of the letters contained an unknown substance and we are working closely with our law enforcement partners to respond to each incident and safely collect the letters,” the agencies said in a statement to BBC’s US partner CBS News.
The Associated Press news agency reported that packages were sent to election officials in Alaska, Georgia, Connecticut, Indiana, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Missouri, New York, Rhode Island, Iowa, Mississippi, Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Tennessee and Wyoming.
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold wrote in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that whoever posted the letters had called themselves as the “US Traitor Elimination Army”.
Officials in at least four of the states said there was no threat posed by the substances found in the packages. In Oklahoma, the Board of Elections said the substance was found to be flour.
In an interview with CBS, Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, said her office was receiving threats daily through voicemails, emails, social media or in person, adding that “it’s escalating”.
This is not the first time suspicious mail was mailed to US election offices.
Last November, offices in Georgia, Nevada, California, Oregon and Washington were sent envelopes with fentanyl or other substances.
Federal investigators are separately questioning a gunman who was found lurking in bushes on a Florida golf course where Trump was putting on Sunday.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c70w49w6pk2o
Voidwalkin
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It's hard for me to see it that way. My lived experience is different.
General aversion to anything new is probably more motivating than actual racism. The oldsters who hate self-checkout I suspect don't like immigration for the same reason. It's new. I'm sure there's a Greek word with a suffix on it that describes that, but it's not presently coming to mind.
Trump presumed a level of frothing hatred, but I don't think it's there, at least, not to the extent he presumed. I wouldn't be stunned to see polling come out that shows diminished confidence in Republicans on immigration as a consequence of his remarks.
If people ever ask me what is my boggle, now I have the answer.
Hygro
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This is some Michael Scott level hilarity.
What's "new" about it? People have been immigrating here for 400 years. The oldsters you're referring to, all or most of their ancestors were among those immigrants at some point (most likely in the mid-1800's). The only thing that's changed over that time is the mix of ethnic groups making up the majority of the immigrants.
You're right, ie @Lexicus is right, but it's more nuanced than that, and I've realized that this is seeming, at least, to be a good example of something else going on in this race and US elections in general...
The nuance is that the Harris campaign is guessing/believing/hoping that the voters they are currently targeting... the self-described moderates, independents, etc.,... the people you know and encounter everyday that describe themselves as "in the middle", and "I watch all the networks" and BSAB'ing their way through this election... are not racist... at least enough so, that if the campaign doesn't accuse them of being racist, that they won't be triggered into voting for Trump out of spite for being offended. If the campaign mostly avoids the topic and when they do address it, talk mostly about strained resources, they think they can avoid triggering those voters.
On the other hand Trump and J.D. Vance are assuming that a plurality (which is all they need, as opposed to a majority) of voters are racist enough, that if they just keep scapegoating Haitians and or non-whites in general, they will inspire more of those self-described moderates, independents, etc., again, the people you know and encounter everyday that describe themselves as "in the middle", and "I watch all the networks" and who are BSAB'ing their way through this election, to show their colors and vote for Trump, as long as they give them the cover of talking mostly about strained resources.
In short, the Harris/Walz campaign is thinking "People want to do the right thing, just don't insult them." Whereas the Trump/Vance campaign is thinking "People are racist, but they don't want to 'feel' racist, so give them some cover."
Gori the Grey
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One part of how we know this is true is that there is a photo that has been circulating of a black man carrying two dead geese, supposedly one of these geese-eating Haitians. It's not from Springfield. It's actually someone cleaning up road kill. And the guy is not a Haitian.
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