Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

Who do you think will win in November?


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Social environment is disconnected. At my last job, I knew guys workin there 15 years that didn't have any friends. Wasn't anything wrong with them. Just didn't occur organically. Interests too varied, and pursued in online groups. Without real cohesion, it's difficult to find a group that can summon the will to struggle against the dirty tricks.
What was your last job if you don't mind my asking?
 
Its not about Palestinians in general, its about the particular group of people that were requesting time on stage and you should know that.

That's a false equivalence and you should know that. A better analogy might be a group of protesters outside the DNC requesting a speaking slot at the very convention they are protesting.

Well, no, the thing is this was a group of delegates to the DNC, Democratic politicians, who are actually being mocked in more hardline quarters of the pro-Palestinian movement for their willingness to bend over backwards to work within the Democratic Party. They are not just "a group of protesters".

Repeatedly trying to analogize this situation to black people, as if you think that's the only way I can understand it is... I'll just say its... disappointing.

I could have used other analogies but that was the one that occurred to me. In fact, something similar did happen at the 1964 DNC with the Mississippi Freedom Democratic Party.
 
The DNC (and RNC) exist so people can go 'yay!' and applaud easy one-liners. It's a commercial. It's not politics.

Anything that will affect "sales" negatively won't feature.
 
^^If they'd been allowed to speak, they would be speaking as protestors, though. Their cause would have been the only grounds for inviting them. Not all delegates are invited to speak, so just by virtue of being delegates, they're not entitled to a speaking role. The speakers did not include spokespeople for other nations, so just by virtue of representing some nation's interest, they're not entitled to a speaking role.

Now, maybe their protest is itself grounds to invite them anyway: to project that you are a party capable of respectfully fielding dissent. Conventions aren't generally the place for that. I can't think of a time when either party invited speakers to debate one contested plank in the party's platform. In general you are trying to generate a feeling of common purpose, as Ziggy says. Now, the place for disputing planks in a party's platform is the primaries, and in this instance, there wasn't a real primary, so I could see if the DNC wanted to sacrifice some degree of the unity-building that conventions usually involve, in order to remedy that deficiency. But had there been a D candidate in a customary primary advocating for withholding arms from Israel, that candidate would not have emerged as the nominee.

Had they been invited to speak, I believe they would have stuck to the script, fwiw. It would have detracted from the unity-building purpose of a convention. If that in turn weakened Harris' chances at winning the presidency, it would not have been in the real interests of the people of Gaza. The disunity on this point is genuine and legitimate and it remains, and if that sinks Harris' chances, then the people of Gaza will get whatever Netanyahu and Trump can cook up.
 
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The DNC (and RNC) exist so people can go 'yay!' and applaud easy one-liners. It's a commercial. It's not politics.

Anything that will affect "sales" negatively won't feature.

Democrats will have to ask themselves whether the sit-in and failed attempt to enter the venue would affect "sales" more or less negatively than a speech from a Palestinian-American delegate asking people to unite around Kamala Harris to defeat Trump.
 
Democrats will have to ask themselves whether the sit-in and failed attempt to enter the venue would affect "sales" more or less negatively than a speech from a Palestinian-American delegate asking people to unite around Kamala Harris to defeat Trump.
There are some vanity publishers who, while glad to take your money, will not publish your book under their name. Dnc looks to be one of them.
 
Now, maybe their protest is itself grounds to invite them anyway: to project that you are a party capable of respectfully fielding dissent. Conventions aren't generally the place for that.
If they are not forums (fora?) for debate, and they are not decision making bodies what are they for? Is it just a PR event?
 
Democrats will have to ask themselves whether the sit-in and failed attempt to enter the venue would affect "sales" more or less negatively than a speech from a Palestinian-American delegate asking people to unite around Kamala Harris to defeat Trump.
It's not too late for that to happen. The DNC is over obviously, but its not too late for a prominent Democrat or Palestinian-American to serve as a spokesperson and call on folks who are passionate about the killing in Gaza to unite around Kamala Harris to defeat Trump.

Having a speaker specifically at the DNC would have been a big olive branch and that didn't happen, but that doesn't mean it can't happen at all in some other format/venue.
 
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50% to Trump, 25% to Harris and 25% stay at home
30 to Trump, 5 to Harris, 65 sit out.

He lost support as Harris rose concurrently, proportions roughly aligning. It does imply his loss was her gain, but I think those were the no more old people voters.

Those remaining are the core libertarian voters. They tend to think the state is fundamentally awful and a negative, and lately, lean right more than left. Particularly post-Covid. Kinda a group felt mandates strongly infringed on their liberties and I doubt many have forgiven Dems based on personal interactions I've had.
 
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It's not too late for that to happen. The DNC is over obviously, but its not too late for a prominent Democrat or Palestinian-American to serve as a spokesperson and call on folks who are passionate about the killing in Gaza to people to unite around Kamala Harris to defeat Trump.

Having a speaker specifically at the DNC would have been a big olive branch and that didn't happen, but that doesn't mean it can't happen at all in some other format/venue.

I believe they've given a September 15th deadline for some kind of meeting or engagement. This, again, is something they were mocked for by more hardline folks. Bending over backwards to work with the Democrats.
 
I expect a number of RFK voters will go to Stein or West instead.

Incidentally @Samson it can be a bit confusing because the structure and rituals of the convention do essentially descend from a period when the convention was politically meaningful and a site of real decisionmaking (essentially a process of sectional and sectoral interest horse-trading to get a platform and nominee acceptable to the party's broad coalition) but the transition to primary elections in the 70s left the conventions little more than big PR events.
 
I believe they've given a September 15th deadline for some kind of meeting or engagement. This, again, is something they were mocked for by more hardline folks. Bending over backwards to work with the Democrats.
When Kamala Harris started her very limited portion of her speech, giving some minor remarks in support of the Palestinians in Gaza, I immediately thought, "Oh boy, here it comes" and the boos and jeers immediately started from the crowd.

I'm skeptical about a major US policy change with Israel and Palestine, but I do have some hope. Harris is not Biden. I also recognize that even to the extent that Harris is open to some minor policy shifts, she is hamstrung currently because she's not actually POTUS, and she has to be supportive of the Biden administration, since she's part of it.

For all of the Pelosi biting the ring off his finger... ultimately Biden had to swallow his bitter medicine. That was a big deal, it took uncommon character for him to do that. Harris is already dancing on his grave, by necessity, so then adding to that, by dunking on his policy positions, especially while he is still in office, is potentially going too far, not to mention ungrateful, ungracious, etc.

The Palestinian people are dying and that can't be ignored. I don't have a solution. My priority is defeating Trump. I hope that Harris at least has some meaningful meeting with folks to discuss Gaza and offer some meaningful olive branch to possibly get those voters onboard.
 
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I wouldn't say she has to be supportive of Biden. Biden got muscled out, and that could only have happened if they threatened him with the 25th amendment - and only Kamala could use that. Besides, Biden himself has very publicly (obv before he got replaced as the candidate) stated that Kamala is not fit to be potus etc. There's no love to be lost there.
 
I wouldn't say she has to be supportive of Biden. Biden got muscled out, and that could only have happened if they threatened him with the 25th amendment - and only Kamala could use that. Besides, Biden himself has very publicly (obv before he got replaced as the candidate) stated that Kamala is not fit to be potus etc. There's no love to be lost there.
It's close enough that he and his team could effectively sabotage Harris.

They'd really only need to put out unflattering stories and opinions about Harris. As long as they drop one a week, it would create a difficult narrative to overcome. He'd only need to demotivate 1 in 50 Dems. He's well capable of that, even without a direct public statement. A direct public withdrawal? She'd be finished.

He does retain destructive power, even if his support was insufficient to continue his candidacy... she does need to avoid making him overwhelmingly spiteful, at minimum.
 
I wouldn't say she has to be supportive of Biden. Biden got muscled out, and that could only have happened if they threatened him with the 25th amendment - and only Kamala could use that. Besides, Biden himself has very publicly (obv before he got replaced as the candidate) stated that Kamala is not fit to be potus etc. There's no love to be lost there.
Please post where Biden says Kamala is unfit to be president.

25th amendment section that is relevant:

Section 4.​

Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments [cabinet] or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Do you have a source for where Kamala and a majority of the cabinet threatened Biden with the amendment?
 
It's close enough that he and his team could effectively sabotage Harris.

They'd really only need to put out unflattering stories and opinions about Harris. As long as they drop one a week, it would create a difficult narrative to overcome. He'd only need to demotivate 1 in 50 Dems. He's well capable of that, even without a direct public statement. A direct public withdrawal? She'd be finished.

He does retain destructive power, even if his support was insufficient to continue his candidacy... she does need to avoid making him overwhelmingly spiteful, at minimum.
Maybe he could, but tbh he is already defeated and near dead. It's more than enough that he said Kamala is not fit in his view to be potus. I am sure the Gop will use that in ads near the election, so Biden will have his revenge from the (political) grave ;)
 
Speaking after his vice president, Biden said Harris will make “one hell of a president.”

From CNN July 24th

No matter what Biden says or how much his fellow Democrats try to build up his accomplishments as president, multiple Republicans have argued that the 25th Amendment to the Constitution should be used to remove Biden from office ASAP – something that’s not going to happen since no Democrat supports it.

Former President Donald Trump, appearing at a rally in North Carolina Wednesday evening, made the unfounded claim that Biden was told by Democratic leaders that if he did not step aside in the election, he would be removed with the 25th Amendment.
“The bosses, they said, ‘Either you get out, or we’re going to throw you out using the 25th Amendment,’” Trump said in prepared remarks opening his rally. While there’s no evidence to back up Trump’s wild claim about Biden, it is a verifiable fact that Trump’s own Cabinet considered the idea of using the 25th Amendment against him in 2021.

Keep drinking that koolaid.
 
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