Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Sommerswerd]

Did you see James Carville on Maher's show last week?

Nope. Do you have a link?

He has been a big Democrat pollster for many campaigns and several Democratic presidential campaigns

No he hasn't. Carville isn't a pollster. He is a political consultant, and strategist, who often appears as a TV analyst... but yes he has worked for many Democratic campaigns and is considered an authority on political campaigns.

he admitted the polls are over sampling Democrats as many independent and Republicans just hang up on them.

As @Gori the Grey points out, other analysts are saying the opposite, so its kind of a wash. Democrats hang up on pollsters, ratings agencies, survey companies too. I just threw a Neilsen ratings envelope in the trash today.

He literally said any polls not showing Kamala up by at least three points is her actually losing that state.

Sounds scary... sensationalist even... see below...

Do you believe him?

No. But its not really a matter of "belief". Part of Maher's schtick is self-righteous finger wagging at Democrats. That's his whole deal nowadays. Carville would know that and is shrewd enough to kiss up to Maher by playing along.

The last big-ticket campaign Carville did was Hillary Clinton in 2008, which she famously and spectacularly lost. Before that he did John Kerry's 2004 campaign, which also lost. He also did Michael Bennett's 2020 presidential campaign, which most people never even heard of... with good reason... because it fizzled out in less than 1 year ( I had to Google it).

So the bottom line is Carville is out of the game, hasn't done any noteworthy US presidential campaigns in over 15 years, hasn't won any in longer than that. His claim to fame is Bill Clinton's 1992 election. Carville is mostly a TV personality now, so like Gori says, his takes have to go with a grain of salt. Part of the stuff he says is intended to be provocative and entertaining, and to rev voters up, or as @Lexicus says, to scare them into turning out with doomsday predictions, and/or to set himself up for making "see I was right" statements later.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Why do you say that? He pointed out that polls were off by five points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. All under counts of Trump voters.

Pollsters have tried to correct for those inaccuracies, it is thought, and may by this point be over compensating.

No. But its not really a matter of "belief". Part of Maher's schtick is self-righteous finger wagging at Democrats. That's his whole deal nowadays. Carville would know that and is shrewd enough to kiss up to Maher by playing along.

And on top of that Carville is himself a showboater, not above making a point in a flamboyant way to make himself the center of attention.

(As you go on to say. Should have read your whole post before quoting part of it)

 

[JollyRoger]

Why do you say that? He pointed out that polls were off by five points in 2020 and 10 points in 2016. All under counts of Trump voters.

That is absolutely incorrect. Plus the latest misses were the so-called 2022 red wave that never materialized.

 

[Voidwalkin]

I like Carville. Entertaining. Brings a culture to political analysis few others do. He's just as at home calling into SEC talk radio, ranting, as he is talking polling. Geaux Tigahs. Not really though. 8-5.

Polls are kinda a wash. The methodology may accurately predict the frequency of hangups. Or it may not.

Assessing the dominant meme can't be easy. To what extent does Trump voter mistrust cause hangups, to what extent does the higher likelihood of millennial hangups alter the picture, and how do you weigh the two? Difficult to predict. Sorta reminds me of flu shots; you can guess the evolution of the virus, as you can the meme, to an extent, but those of us looking on can only be reasonably confident of mild inaccuracy. It's increasingly beyond best human efforts.

 

[Kaitzilla]

That is absolutely incorrect. Plus the latest misses were the so-called 2022 red wave that never materialized.

The red wave never happened yup.

 

[Core Imposter]

If something is being undercounted, it is the number of people who are sick of the mess and aren't voting.

Calamity could collapse, not saying she will before the election.

 

[Cutlass]

More than 200 Bush, McCain, Romney alums endorse Harris for president, criticize Trump

Joey Garrison
USA TODAY

More than 200 Bush, McCain, Romney alums endorse Harris for president, criticize Trump

More than 200 former aides of Bush, McCain and Romney said a second Trump president is \

www.usatoday.com

WASHINGTON — More than 200 Republicans who previously worked for either former President George W. Bush, the late Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., or Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for president in an open letter Monday obtained exclusively by USA TODAY.

The letter from alums of the three Republican presidential nominees prior to former President Donald Trump comes on the heels of a Democratic National Convention last week in Chicago that showcased Republican detractors of the GOP nominee. At least five former aides to former President George H.W. Bush also signed the letter, which has 238 signatures in all.

A similar group of about 150 anti-Trump former staffers of Bush, McCain and Romney pledged support for President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

"We reunite today, joined by new George H.W. Bush alumni, to reinforce our 2020 statements and, for the first time, jointly declare that we’re voting for Vice President Kamala Harris and Gov. Tim Walz this November," the letter reads. "Of course, we have plenty of honest, ideological disagreements with Vice President Harris and Gov. Walz. That’s to be expected. The alternative, however, is simply untenable."
Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris delivers her acceptance speech during the final day of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago on Aug. 22, 2024.

Among those who signed the letter in support of Harris and her running-mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, include: former McCain chiefs of staff Mark Salter and Chris Koch; Joe Donoghue, former legislative director for McCain; Jennifer Lux, press secretary for McCain's 2008 campaign, and Jean Becker, longtime chief of staff for George H.W. Bush.

Also backing Harris are David Nierenberg, Romney's 2012 campaign finance chair; David Garman, under secretary of Energy for George W. Bush; and Olivia Troye, a former advisor to both George W. Bush and Vice President Mike Pence. Troye spoke from the stage of the DNC convention last week.

"At home, another four years of Donald Trump’s chaotic leadership, this time focused on advancing the dangerous goals of Project 2025, will hurt real, everyday people and weaken our sacred institutions," the letter says, referring to the Heritage Foundation's policy blueprint that the Trump campaign has sought to distance itself from.

"Abroad, democratic movements will be irreparably jeopardized as Trump and his acolyte JD Vance kowtow to dictators like Vladimir Putin while turning their backs on our allies. We can’t let that happen."

The animosity between the camps of McCain, Romney, and Bush and Trump is well-documented.

Romney, who voted to impeach Trump as a senator, said he won't support Trump in the 2024 election, but he hasn't endorsed Harris either. Bush, whose family has long been at odds with Trump, did not attend last month's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, though has refrained form criticizing Trump publicly. As a candidate in 2015, Trump said McCain was "not a war hero." Four years ago, McCain's widow, Cindy McCain, endorsed Biden over Trump.

Others who signed the letters include: Reed Galen, McCain's deputy campaign manager and co-founder of the Lincoln Project; Jim Swift, a former Republican operative who is now senior editor of The Bulwark, an anti-Trump news and opinion site; and former McCain campaign strategist Mike Murphy.

Citing 2020 exit polling and other voter data, the group claims it was "moderate Republicans and conservative independents in key swing states" who were pivotal in Biden's victory that ultimately delivered the presidency Biden − Americans who "put country far before party," they write in the letter.

The group called on more moderate Republicans and independents to "take a brave stand once more" and support Harris over Trump in the fall.

The Harris campaign has worked to highlight its backing from Republicans who oppose Trump, launching a "Republicans for Harris" group this month and featuring Republican speakers at last week's convention.

Republicans who addressed the convention included former Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., who served on the House panel that investigated Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election; former Trump press secretary Stephanie Grishaml former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, Mesa, Ariz. Mayor John Giles; and Troye, who worked as a homeland security and counterterrorism adviser to Pence. Pence has said he won't endorse Trump for president.

Over the weekend, a dozen prominent Republican attorneys who worked for former President Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush endorsed Harris for president. The group included conservative former federal appellate Judge Michael Luttig, who plans to vote for a Democratic president for the first time.

 

[Akka]

Trump manages to make G.W. Bush looks stately and reasonable.
From someone who remembers just how awful and tragicomically abysmal he was as a president, that's seriously hysterical. In the most literal sense of the word.

 

[tjs282]

Cue yet more whining from the usual suspects about the Deep State and the Political Elites conspiring against Trump the USA...

 

[Gori the Grey]

Yeah, all this stuff just reinforces his core narrative.

But . . . the one plus is that it can give a "permission structure" for right-leaning centrists to this one time vote D.

 

[amadeus]

I really wouldn’t be dazzled by the names on that list. I mean would, if the undersecretary of energy under the Clinton administration came out for Trump, would anyone be convinced to change their vote? Does anyone even remember who his energy secretary was?

I only remember Les Aspin, who wanted to turn American soldiers into unarmed peacekeepers, and Joycelyn Elders, who Clinton axed for suggesting they add Playboy to elementary school libraries.

 

[Samson]

Joycelyn Elders, who Clinton axed for suggesting they add Playboy to elementary school libraries

That is a TIL:

At a 1994 United Nations conference on AIDS, Elders was asked if she thought teaching children about masturbation might reduce unsafe sex. Yes, she replied, "I think that is something that is a part of human sexuality, and it's a part of something that perhaps should be taught. But we've not even taught our children the very basics." The conservative outrage circuit erupted, and Clinton promptly asked her to resign.

She was saying that schoolchildren should learn that masturbation is natural and common—not that they should be taught how to do it, she later clarified.

 

[amadeus]

It’s a reference so dated I can finally add it to my library.

 

[JollyRoger]

That was back around the time that the righties were cancel culturing Playboy from 7-11

 

[Sommerswerd]

I really wouldn’t be dazzled by the names on that list. I mean would, if the undersecretary of energy under the Clinton administration came out for Trump, would anyone be convinced to change their vote?

Well...

Well, 538 has Harris 1.5% ahead in Pennsylvania, 2.9% ahead in Michigan, and 3.6% ahead in Wisconsin. That would put her in a leading electoral position, especially since she also leads by 1.1% in Arizona, and narrowly by 0.4% in Nevada. Even in Georgia and North Carolina, Trump's once comfortable leads against Biden have gone down to 0.8% and 0.1% respectively. So in fact the 538 model electoral map has her currently leading Trump 251 to 219.

Harris' leads in PA, MI, WI and NV have all slightly increased since yesterday. Her lead in Arizona went down by 0.1%, but she still leads.

EDIT: 538 now also has Harris with a razor thin 0.1% lead in North Carolina. Trump's lead in GA has dropped to 0.6%

So... maybe the open letter worked Based on current 538 polling, Harris would win the EC 303 to 235.

 

[Gori the Grey]

I really wouldn’t be dazzled by the names on that list.

You don't need to be dazzled. All one needs from this letter is for people who voted against Trump in 2020 to vote against him again:

Citing 2020 exit polling and other voter data, the group claims it was "moderate Republicans and conservative independents in key swing states" who were pivotal in Biden's victory that ultimately delivered the presidency Biden − Americans who "put country far before party," they write in the letter.

The group called on more moderate Republicans and independents to "take a brave stand once more" and support Harris over Trump in the fall.

 

[KMRblue1027]

My gut feeling is the map will be the same as 2020 except flip NC and GA which is actually closer to what the Biden campaign thought going into 2020 would have been anyway. NC was considered by most to be the easier flip then GA. Polling seems to roughly show that too.

 

[aelf]

I dunno. If Trump campaigns against wokeness, he might pull it off. People lose their minds over that.

 

[Lexicus]

I dunno. If Trump campaigns against wokeness, he might pull it off. People lose their minds over that.

Ron DeSantis tried this and ate **** in the Republican primary

 

[Voidwalkin]

Ron DeSantis tried this and ate horsehocky in the Republican primary

Largely because he wasn't as good at this as Trump is, nor could he establish himself as an authentic wrecking ball anywhere near Trump's mass.