Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[Samson]

Many on the right say Harris won:

“Let’s make no mistake. Trump had a bad night,” the Fox News analyst Brit Hume said immediately after the debate. “We just heard so many of the old grievances that we all know aren’t winners politically.”

“She was exquisitely well prepared, she laid traps and he chased every rabbit down every hole instead of talking about the things that he should have been talking about,” Chris Christie

“Trump was unfocused and poorly prepared,” agreed Guy Benson, editor of the conservative website Townhall on X . “[Harris] basically accomplished exactly what she wanted to here. I suspect the polls about the debate will show that she won it.”

“I’m just sad,” one House Republican told the Hill. “She knew exactly where to cut to get under his skin. Just overall disappointing that he isn’t being more composed like the first debate. The road just got very narrow. This is not good.”

“Trump lost the debate and whining about the moderators doesn’t change it,” the conservative radio host Erick Erickson wrote on social media. “He didn’t lose because of their behavior. He lost because of his own performance while his lips were moving, not theirs.”

“The headline for the next few days will be how he lost this thing,” one GOP representative told Politico. “I expect him to do something drastic, whether it’s a campaign shake-up or some other wild antic, by the end of the week to change the upcoming news cycle.”

Spoiler In cartoon form :

 

[Sommerswerd]

The Polish media that my mom consumes claims that Trump won the debate. I don't trust them though, but where can I read about an unbiased analysis of the debate that summarizes everything in in less than 2 sentences?

I've got you covered. Two sentences that sum it up:

In the debate, Trump answered a question about him scuttling a bipartisan immigration bill by first raving about the crowd sizes at his rallies, then ranting about people eating dogs and cats in Ohio. Immediately after the debate, Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris.

Succinct enough?

 

[Voidwalkin]

I had the exact thought that Bird had regarding her reference to Pennsylvanians with Polish ancestry.

Probably delighted to be mentioned alone. Sorta underrepresented in American culture

Frank and Nick Sobotka are thrilled.

 

[GenMarshall]

The markets decided Harris won.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group, the company that owns Truth Social, fell 13 percent on Wednesday afternoon, while other so-called Trump trades such as Bitcoin and crypto stocks retreated. Solar stocks, seen as benefitting from a Harris win, rallied and healthcare shares fell.

online prediction markets showed bets on a stronger likelihood of a Harris win in November: Harris’s odds in PredictIt’s 2024 presidential general election market improved to 55 cents from 53 cents before the debate, while Trump’s odds slipped from 52 cents to 47 cents.

Understand on where I’m coming from. So far my YouTube algorithm is totally, to put it in CFC friendly language, fudged up at the moment after years of consuming anti-SJW/anti-woke content. Hence why I brought up David Packman and Tim Pool as examples as those are the two prominent figures that have been showing in my recommendation feed.

Secondly, I honestly don’t follow the “Political Canidate” Betting/Stock site. So any references on that would be alien to me.

Edit: To clarify, I’m not disputing your opinion, or anyone’s opinion, that Harris won the debate. I’m just in a position where I feel conflicted when I see two political tribes claim victory.

@Gori the Grey I haven’t forgotten to respond to your post. I just don’t like quote responding a post on an iPhone and the forum software decides to bug out the quotes making them headliners or something.

 

[Narz]

Looking back on bold predictions... I'm gonna go ahead and do a victory lap on this one:

https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/u-s-presidential-election-2024-part-ii-象対ロバ.689864/post-16612469

@Narz - When I said this, you responded by asking me why Kennedy would want Trump to win. What do you think now?

I think he (Kennedy) is rather pathetic.

To be skeptical of Democrats I can understand. To go from condemning Trump to sucking up to him is something that drops my respect to zero.

 

[Arakhor]

Understand on where I’m coming from. So far my YouTube algorithm is totally, to put it in CFC friendly language, fudged up at the moment after years of consuming anti-SJW/anti-woke content. Hence why I brought up David Packman and Tim Pool as examples as those are the two prominent figures that have been showing in my recommendation feed.

Seriously, if you want to curate your feed, you have to do it manually. Click on the three vertical dots at the bottom right of each video and click "Don't recommend channel".

 

[PhroX]

Seriously, if you want to curate your feed, you have to do it manually. Click on the three vertical dots at the bottom right of each video and click "Don't recommend channel".

View attachment 702712

Unfortunately, that doesn't always stick. Or maybe it only stops them being recommended for some amount of time. I've had videos recommended from channels I've told YT not to recommend crop up again after some time has passed.

Not saying you shouldn't use the feature of course, it's better than just letting the crap clog up your feed. But it's not a guarantee of things being kept out.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

"It was the best debate, personally, that I've ever had. We're getting polls that show 92 percent, 88..." "Mr. President speak louder," a reporter interrupted.

He went on to claim that early polling was showing "90 percent, 60 percent, 72 percent, 71 percent, and 79 percent" of viewers thought he won the debate.

"Where are you getting these numbers from?" a reporter asked. Trump did not reply.

I know the answer to that one!

 

[Thorgalaeg]

An insane clown with orange hair vs a general attorney. The result shouldn't surprise anyone.

 

[Arakhor]

Unfortunately, that doesn't always stick. Or maybe it only stops them being recommended for some amount of time. I've had videos recommended from channels I've told YT not to recommend crop up again after some time has passed.

Not saying you shouldn't use the feature of course, it's better than just letting the crap clog up your feed. But it's not a guarantee of things being kept out.

And for whatever daft reason, the videos in the trending sections can't be blocked, but at least it's a start.

 

[EvaDK]

An evening where Trump was not just humiliated by one, but two powerful women.

Also interesting how Trump spoke mostly to his MAGA base, while Harris mostly spoke directly to the undecided voters watching the debate. Trump may have a campaign manager (or several), but no one can manage or prep him, it would seem.

 

[Gori the Grey]

@Gori the Grey I haven’t forgotten to respond to your post. I just don’t like quote responding a post on an iPhone and the forum software decides to bug out the quotes making them headliners or something.

No worries. I feel I'm under obligation to you, not the other way around. I said I would try to address your election concerns in good faith, and so when I see elements of Harris' platform that I think might appeal to your stated concerns, I point them out.

I’m just in a position where I feel conflicted when I see two political tribes claim victory.

Trust your own judgment. Did you watch the debate? If not, do so. You won't have any doubt which commentators are just making an honest assessment and which are trying to spin it to the loser's advantage.

 

[Voidwalkin]

Trump may have a campaign manager (or several), but no one can manage or prep him, it would seem

Probably not. When in doubt, he attacks. He does have reason to believe these attacks will be successful. His off the cuff improv basically entirely up ended the Republican establishment and changed American politics.

He's just lost his sense of the public. I dunno if it's age. The man probably is only interacting with sycophants. He's not mixing with the larger population às frequently. Age has probably slightly diminished him, but I would guess the lower frequency of opportunity to observe the public mood is more responsible.

"Eating pets" was jumping the shark. I don't think 2016 Trump woulda done that. It's not vague. It's specific. His infamous "not sending their best people" rant was just vague enough to allow listeners to interpret it how they wished. Many using their bias to assess immigrants agreed, even if statistically, at the time, Mexican immigrants were less likely to commit a crime than born citizens, iirc. Pet eaters? It's so oddly specific. It'd too absurd to resonate on its own, and the specific doesn't allow the listener to make what they will of it.

His insults and wild antics aren't hitting the mark as frequently as they did. They're missing. Trump became a dark counterculture icon through verbal punching. But he's no longer doing that well. It's easier to maintain than create, so MAGA won't collapse, but this Trump couldn't have created that phenomenon.

 

[Narz]

He's just lost his sense of the public. I dunno if it's age. The man probably is only interacting with sycophants. He's not mixing with the larger population às frequently. Age has probably slightly diminished him, but I would guess the lower frequency of opportunity to observe the public mood is more responsible.

It's like an addiction, his schtick worked before and now he just can't stop

 

[Gori the Grey]

Probably not. When in doubt, he attacks. He does have reason to believe these attacks will be successful. His off the cuff improv basically entirely up ended the Republican establishment and changed American politics.

He's just lost his sense of the public. I dunno if it's age. The man probably is only interacting with sycophants. He's not mixing with the larger population às frequently. Age has probably slightly diminished him, but I would guess the lower frequency of opportunity to observe the public mood is more responsible.

"Eating pets" was jumping the shark. I don't think 2016 Trump woulda done that. It's not vague. It's specific. His infamous "not sending their best people" rant was just vague enough to allow listeners to interpret it how they wished. Many using their bias to assess immigrants agreed, even if statistically, at the time, Mexican immigrants were less likely to commit a crime than born citizens, iirc. Pet eaters? It's so oddly specific. It'd too absurd to resonate on its own, and the specific doesn't allow the listener to make what they will of it.

His insults and wild antics aren't hitting the mark as frequently as they did. They're missing. Trump became a dark counterculture icon through verbal punching. But he's no longer doing that well. It's easier to maintain than create, so MAGA won't collapse, but this Trump couldn't have created that phenomenon.

This is well-formulated and into the mix, you have to add that people have finally caught up with him and devised a way to counter his one trick.

He punched plenty during the debate, as much as ever. But Harris didn't respond to any of the punches and unrelentingly punched him. Not punched him back; punched him with her own planned things. His one trick was to defy decorum and thus leave everyone else dumbfounded as to how to respond. If you respond decorously, he's dominated you. If you attack back (Rubio with the little hands), 1) you look just as petty has him and 2) he'll punch back even harder, so unless you have your own escalation planned, he'll dominate you.

We've always framed him as a school-yard bully. We all know there's exactly one way of dealing with a school-yard bully. Somebody finally did it.

 

[EvaDK]

"Eating pets" was jumping the shark. I don't think 2016 Trump woulda done that. It's not vague. It's specific.

It's a baseless lie that's been voiced recently by among others his own VP pick JD Vance. So there's perhaps the 'how'. Also, it is speculated that Trump went with Vance as his running mate, because Donald Jr and Eric recommended him to their dad. You know, the two adult Trump sons whose only achievement in life so far, is successfully cosplaying as characters from Bret Easton Ellis' 'American Psycho'.

 

[Lexicus]

We've always framed him as a school-yard bully. We all know there's exactly one way of dealing with a school-yard bully. Somebody finally did it.

Well, Crooks missed him....oh wait, you were talking about something else. Nevermind.

 

[Kyriakos]

Getting a former potus and potus candidate gunned down wouldn't exactly lead to less chaos. I think the US was very lucky it didn't happen, yet there will be more such attempts as polarization has gone past what is reversible.

 

[Sommerswerd]

To go from condemning Trump to sucking up to him is something that drops my respect to zero.

See also, Lindsey Graham, Ted Cuz and so on...

 

[Sommerswerd]

As of today, 538 has Harris up by 2.8% and RCP has her up by 1.5%. Both numbers are down a little from last week. Harris lead on 538 got reduced due to The Economist/YouGov's poll that showed the candidates even at 45% each. Harris lead in the RCP poll is being held down, as usual, by Rassmussen, however Harvard/Harris also released their poll, typically very favorable to the Republican candidate, and that showed a 50%-50% tie, which seems a little strange. Also of note, is the NY Times/Siena poll, which I think 538 originally included but then dropped, presumably because of concerns with the poll's credibility, which 538 periodically does, and is part of why they don't typically include Rasmussen anymore. That NY Times/Siena poll has Trump up by 1 point, 48% to 47%.

According to 538, Trump currently leads in Arizona, and Georgia. Harris leads in Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.