Election 2024 Part III: Out with the old!

[KaibaCorp]

He's basically a core dramatist whose works are ingested in mere minutes and tint/inform vibes of the uninformed.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Bernie is immortal

Also, this is what an actually good campaign speaker looks and sounds like:

I don't think AOC qualifies as a "Bernie-like" politician anymore. She has pretty much switched into a more pragmatic, strategic, establishment, type of politician rather than activist. She hasn't done a full heel-turn, like Tulsi Gabbard, but like Gabbard, she's changed a lot from being a Bernie heir-apparent.

To some extent, I think that folks finding her attractive may serve to stall realization/acceptance of this.

Whether AOC would win a POTUS election is a little murky, especially given the results in 2016 and 2024. There are some real questions about whether US women will vote in large enough numbers to elect a woman POTUS. Its clear that the majority of US men won't, so that gap has to be filled by women, and they just don't seem to be inclined to do it in large enough numbers.

On the other hand, going moderate obviously didn't work for Harris-Walz. They lost the popular vote, which many of us thought wasn't possible, but more importantly, they underperformed Biden in 2020 by about 15 million votes. So moderate didn't work. Maybe a harder left candidate would be more motivational to likely Democratic voters? I don't know. There certainly is going to be a lot of analysis on it in th coming months/years.

 

[Sarin]

This is certainly true but may I point out that this is a thing the Democrats did, not the Republicans?

What I'm curious about here is the shape of the asymmetry. What things for each side have that mysterious property of being scored only in one of the ranges Success to Neutral, or the dreaded Neutral to Fail?

It's the feature of the two-party system. When people felt abandoned by one side, they have had nowhere to turn to but the other.

But the thing about the American two-party, vote-for-lesser-evil system is that "lesser" is subjective. It depends on the proximity of the threat. And Dems have presented themselves as more immediate threat to many constituents in quite a few cases lately. Sometimes, because they were in power, sometimes because they backed the wrong, I mean more immediately hostile horse on some issue (like the BLM riots), sometimes because they did not distance themselves from the more extreme opinions on some issues and let Reps blow that out of proportion (abortion issue).

 

[Kaitzilla]

Time to start the next thread.

Election 2028 : No Mercy

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Urk!

 

[Akka]

This is an honest question and you may not have an answer but how could they possibly go more moderate than they did this time?

The problem here is, IMO, a trust problem. Yes, Harris made a pretty moderate campaign, but campaigning is one half, people believing you'll actually go through with your promises is the other half. Of course, with the loss of trust in democratic institutions and political parties in general these past decades, people have become pretty jaded and cynical about everyones in politics, but I think that this, precisely, helped Trump, with the "he's so lunatic, he might actually do it" while the Democrats were probably cast as "professionnal politicians going through the motions".

If the Democrats have been perceived as supporting unpopular policies regularly, and have just not put them in the spotlight during campaigning, there is probably a number of people who simply didn't trust them to not put them into action nevertheless if elected.
And yes, I'm aware that Trump is much more of a liar. Why it doesn't repulse people even more is still up in the air, though I guess the brazen side and the numbness due to raw overload is probably a lot of the explanation.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Kamala was branded a communist by Trump. It literally doesn't matter if you self-identify as socialist as that angle will be used against any dem candidate (unless they turn openly fascist).

Yes, every Dem is labelled a communist. But again, this doesn’t address the crux of the matter - electorally, the squad underperforms. Harris clearly convinced plenty of people she was not a communist - all of the never Trumpers would not have voted for her if they were convinced she was. Bernie’s best hope in the 2020 primaries was a brokered convention with him having like a 35% plurality. That was what his own team aimed for because they knew the writing on the wall.

AOC is the most credible to break out of this because she is very deft and successful with modern technology and media use. She is very good at calling attention to herself (this is a compliment). I would absolutely knock doors for her. But this idea that she could step in right now and win the presidency, when she will absolutely, positively be seen as more extreme than any single republican that runs against her, is silly.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

You can't blame your fight with @innonimatu on me. I rarely argue with inno (if ever). I challenge you to quote 3 posts where I am arguing with inno or trying to "convince you he is bad". You're definitely mixing me up with someone else... or just gaslighting me

Was referring to this...

I literally cracked up at this post. I'm still laughing as I type this .

Thanks inno, I needed that

(The "convince you he is bad" is just part of the meme template)

 

[EvaDK]

It feels like Trump's victory is more based on how a lot of voters feel about their economy, than the whole woke and abortion agenda. And the Democrats failed to come up with answers to those people and their woes. It's like whoever coined the phrase, 'It's the economy, stupid.'

 

[Joij21]

The Republicans are against anyone-but-themselves so yes, they manage to alienate a lot of people socially.

But the US system legally excludes millions of voters so we'll never know. And it's orchestrated by them purposefully. It either disenfranchises them through gerrymandering or outright says ‘no, you can't vote’.

Sounds like cope to me. If republicans were to complain about hanky panky with the votes libs would be crying foul.

Only because the popular vote went Republican this time Dems feel they have to now use this as their final cope to desperately avoid trying to do something different or prevent themselves from devolving into pure hysteria.

 

[Voidwalkin]

I have to admit I'm a bit curious about Voidwalkin's take on this type of guy. Is he just noisy but ultimately unimportant or is he a core part of the Republican base?

I've heard Tucker Carlson speak for a total of 30 seconds almost 20 years ago now and cannot provide any informed opinion of his views.

Ace's post is pretty representative of how many religious Americans view abortion. Other views expressed, that the left hates aspects of American culture and is supported by media, including social media, bureacratic elites, the managerial class and various other powerful forces in society are pretty standard right wing beliefs.

a trust problem

Yep.

 

[Fippy]

It feels like Trump's victory is more based on how a lot of voters feel about their economy, than the whole woke and abortion agenda. And the Democrats failed to come up with answers to those people and their woes. It's like whoever coined the phrase, 'It's the economy, stupid.'

That's one reason..and another is how parts of America would still love to pick up their Rifles and go disperse some Native Americans from their lands.

 

[Sarin]

It feels like Trump's victory is more based on how a lot of voters feel about their economy, than the whole woke and abortion agenda. And the Democrats failed to come up with answers to those people and their woes. It's like whoever coined the phrase, 'It's the economy, stupid.'

I'm going to disagree with you here. This time it was "it's the safety, stupid". To put it bluntly, between BLM, border issues and some state or county level policies on law enforcement that could only charitably be called "woke", people just didn't feel safe under Democrat rule.

 

[aelf]

A person with a bad sense of humour may improve.

I dunno. Why haven't you improved?

You are drawing a conclusion that is exactly wrong. Because you cling to pre-conceived ideas, the arrogance of "my tribe is the righfuil one". That's why this particular tribe never learns.

Project fear in this campaign was run by the democrats. Not by Trump's side. And fear lost. Harris' whole campaign could be summaried in "orange man evil. I am not orange man". In the end they went so far as to claim that Trump was the second coming of Hitler!

Trump complained a lot but his campagn was light and funny. His stunts were funny. Where he used fear was, as far as I could see from the news that I inevitably got to see here despite it not being my problem, in complaining about media censorship. And that was a very self-evident feat because it was happening. Had been happening for a long time, remember the infamous lapto about which "14 intelligence agencies", or almost the whole media, lied on the even of the previous election? The fear he agitated consistently at least had some reality, and was not even the manin focus of his election drive. The drive was still the "maga" thing.

Fear in election campaigns usually loses. Lost in this one. Those who cling to fake narratives will not learn any lessons and will continue to lose.

lmao.

Now that's funny.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Correct, except that as things currently stand, the US is at least periodically threatening to withdraw/reduce aid in an attempt to influence Israel's invasion/conduct in Gaza. There will probably be no more of that now. Whether that makes things worse for Palestinians remains to be seen. I am generally of the mindset that no matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.

I think Netanyahu was holding out to see if Trump won, so maybe it actually works out better for Palestinians somehow. I am not dismissing hope for Palestine that maybe it was Netanyahu's plan to wait for Trump to win, then let Trump take credit foe a cease-fire, in exchange for Trump's help with him staying in power.

No, because the US/Biden was repeatedly issuing threats to reduce and/or cut off military aid to Israel as a result of their treatment of Palestinians. I can't say what influence or change that produced in Israel's actions in Gaza because it would just be speculation, but whatever impact it had, it won't be the same with Trump in office.

However, again since I think Netanyahu was holding out to see if Trump won, I am not dismissing the sliver of hope that the Palestinians will get some relief now that the credit can go to Trump instead of Biden. Maybe Trump just outright has a better relationship with Netanyahu and can broker some sort of cease fire, maybe Trump goes ahead and cuts or threatens to cut military aid and Netanyahu takes it more seriously because its Trump... who knows.

At this point Trump has won so no use in complaining about that. I'm just hoping that it works out for the better for the Palestinian people somehow.

Beats me. Maybe just go more conservative? I don't have an answer because I don't see how they could go more moderate. They were campaigning with Republicans, accepting endorsements from Cheney, promoting fracking, on and on. Harris promised to put a Republican in her cabinet. Just keep in mind that just because we can't picture how they could get more moderate, doesn't mean that it can't be done. Again, no matter how bad things are, they can always get worse.

A couple things here; the Dem platform is still way, way more left wing than previous years. In 2016 Bernie endorsed an anti-abortion Democrat and said Dems need to be more flexible on abortion and immigration, and those are not his positions now. Can you imagine Obama proposing a wealth tax, a real thing many Democrats now propose? Or free community college? Or massive blanket student loan forgiveness? We passed 2 trillion in stimulus after 3 trillion under Trump when Obama got us like, 1 trillion.

A lot of this is honestly messaging and lying. If Dems really want to go the electorally smart path it’s;
Pro medicare, medicaid, social security
Protecting abortion
Legal weed
Endless oil drilling
A complete immigration shutdown
Tons of money for cops and way harsher prison sentences

Now, frankly, I think some of these are non starters. And I think even if they do this they’re fighting on very unfavorable ground. So the Dems have to stop ceding ground on some of these topics, which is the real problem. As recently as 2018 a majority of Americans were pro immigration, but a combination of inflation and Dems failing to articulate a case for immigration has caused that territory to disappear. I am begging a national Democrat anywhere to try to make an impassioned plea for immigrants instead of “no we actually are tough on the border.” The Dems aren’t going to win on that territory unless they’re like, a once in a generation talent like Obama. Harris also should have made the ‘ban price gouging’ the front and center of her late campaign. Who cares if details are thin and economists don’t like it? She pivoted away from that slightly after NYT and other institutional pushback, but voters LOVE that stuff. Just say you will do it! All the time! Everywhere! There is literally no cost to saying it, and with inflation cooled off you could take credit for it in a second term even if you never did it.

 

[Sommerswerd]

Was referring to this...



(The "convince you he is bad" is just part of the meme template)

All I said was that the post made me laugh (which it did), particularly the last 3 sentences of the post. It was just genuinely funny, in part because I could see the potential accuracy in what he was saying. The polls in the past elections had consistently underrepresented what Trump would get, and Democrats historically had to get about 3% more popular vote to win the electoral college. None of that was being ignored, we were all discussing it the whole time. A tie boded poorly for both of those trends. So when I saw @innonimatu 's post, basically predicting a repeat of 2016, it made me think of the SNL skits back in 2016 of the Hillary watch-parties and it made me laugh.

 

[Sommerswerd]

It feels like Trump's victory is more based on how a lot of voters feel about their economy, than the whole woke and abortion agenda. And the Democrats failed to come up with answers to those people and their woes. It's like whoever coined the phrase, 'It's the economy, stupid.'

That would be James Carville, the "Rajun Cajun"

 

[Joij21]

Kamala was branded a communist by Trump. It literally doesn't matter if you self-identify as socialist as that angle will be used against any dem candidate (unless they turn openly fascist).

Obama was able to shake it off, so why not another Obama? There must be like a field or something where literal Obamas grow out of a cabbage patch or something.

 

[GoodEnoughForMe]

Yeah the closest thing to a critical mistake Harris made was that interview with The View “I wouldn’t have done anything different” or whatever. That became an ad everywhere. Voters really badly wanted something different, which she felt like when she first announced. She should have thrown Biden to the wolves. Said she was tired of his old age bs or something.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Time to start the next thread.

I was thinking the same thing

Actually, what I need a forward-looking thread for is rumination on how Trump might operate in office in this second term. That's what I've been mulling this morning.

At the center of my still-hazy thinking is wondering whether Trump will be motivated to do much of anything at all. First, he's already achieved the primary thing that motivated this run: Merchan now won't sentence him to prison time, and he can dismiss all the other cases. He's never been much motivated by the work of the job, except to create the impression that he's being successful. He won't be campaigning any more, and I think that might make a difference. He's very motivated by seeking people's approval, but the consequential form of approval is being elected and he can't shoot for that again. (There will maybe be some idle talk of repealing the 22nd amendment). He might invent some pretext for holding rallies, but it will probably feel a little flat because they'll be inconsequential. He'll mostly just want to golf and not be bothered, I would think.

I mean early on he'll end the war in Ukraine (by telling Zelensky we're not going to fund him any more, so seek the best deal he can with Russia). He'll bring peace to the middle east (since there has to be some point when Israel thinks it has achieved its military objectives, and that moment will fall during Trump's term; he'll be happy to package that as him ending the war that Biden couldn't). I think he'll have to make a show of deporting a bunch of people, but that may not prove as popular when people see it as it is when people think of it in the abstract, so if there's a PR downside, he'll just declare that issue solved and his followers will care as little as they care that the wall didn't get built.

He'll have no interest in grooming a successor or bolstering the R party. I'm not sure he thinks in terms of legacy, and to the extent that he does, he'll just tell himself that whatever happens during his term is the best in the history of the country, and maybe not actively go after very much.

I just think we might see a ton of golfing and not much attempt to get anything done. Now don't get me wrong, if I'm correct, a bunch of evil will get done by the people in whose hands he leaves the government.

But I just think he himself might default to his baseline laziness, again since just by winning he's achieved the primary objective he had for running in the first place.

Dunno.

 

[Joij21]

On the other hand, going moderate obviously didn't work for Harris-Walz. They lost the popular vote, which many of us thought wasn't possible, but more importantly, they underperformed Biden in 2020 by about 15 million votes. So moderate didn't work. Maybe a harder left candidate would be more motivational to likely Democratic voters? I don't know. There certainly is going to be a lot of analysis on it in th coming months/years.

Oh! Then the Dems are basically destroyed now. Give it a couple of years and when the Republicans shift back towards more Romney/Reagan like candidates then Dems are in trouble.