GOP Poll Part II, now updated with actual candidates

[sophie]

Too bad it isn't. The country would be better off if it weren't controlled by only two political parties. George Washington warned us of this but we didn't listen.

It actually is a party.

http://www.aipca.org/

Bunch of nutjobs, too.

 

[bhsup]

I'm still standing with Mitt.

 

[Miles Teg]

Mitt Romney would be pretty bad. Pawlenty seems to think economies run on wishes and fairy dust. Bachmann thinks everything runs on prayer. Rick Perry will probably secede from the United States sometime before next November. None of the others have any shot at winning the nomination.

Bunch of nutjobs, too.

People who fetishize their political independence usually are.

 

[Godwynn]

What's his plan? Even worse than the Fairytale Tax?

Income up to and including $50,000 = 10%
Income over $50,000 = 25%
Corporate tax rate cut to 25%

Yep...

 

[LucyDuke]

It actually is a party.

http://www.aipca.org/

Bunch of nutjobs, too.

Ew. Contradictory and misleading.

(That is, however, why I use the lowercase i when describing my party affiliation.)

 

[mrt144]

The best GOP candidate in terms of actual ability to govern and be a statesman is probably Huntsman (and the person I hope wins the GOP primary although I think he has a tough challenge ahead of him).

The best GOP candidate in terms of the politics of GOP primaries combined with the general election is probably Perry. While I don't think he'd do as well in the General as Hunstman, I think he has a much easier chance in the primaries being more conservative (Perry could do well in Iowa, win SC and possibly even NH although I think NH will go to Huntsman or Romney). What helps him in the General compared to the other really conservative members is that Perry isn't generally considered excessively extreme, or at least, while he says things that annoy liberals incessantly, his record as governor isn't as radical as some of his statements and I think he can measure his tone in the general election.

Romney is the front-runner now (according to the media at least) but if he has any chance he's going to have to overcome his personal appeal issues.

Romney has the fact he doesn't seem insane or potentially insane going for him.

 

[Junius]

Romney is the most electable and in such an important election that has to count for an awful lot. Most of you have probably seen this poll http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/obama-loses-bin-laden-bounce-romney-on-the-move-among-gop-contenders/2011/06/06/AGT5wiKH_print.html. Obama is losing support among independents. Romney can win them while many (Paul, Santorum, etc) alienate them for various reasons. Huntsman i think would do a good job, but i don't think he has a big enough profile to actually win.

 

[Miles Teg]

Honestly, if I was a Republican I wouldn't be worried that a bad nominee would hand Obama a second term. With the exception of Bachmann, none of the people with any chance of winning the nomination are really handicapped in the general election.

Like most re-election campaigns, it's mostly going to be about the economy. If the economy gets better, there isn't anyone the GOP could nominate that would win. If it gets worse, they can't lose. Even if it keeps muddling along, the election will probably turn on other issues.

 

[mrt144]

Honestly, if I was a Republican I wouldn't be worried that a bad nominee would hand Obama a second term. With the exception of Bachmann, none of the people with any chance of winning the nomination are really handicapped in the general election.

Like most re-election campaigns, it's mostly going to be about the economy. If the economy gets better, there isn't anyone the GOP could nominate that would win. If it gets worse, they can't lose. Even if it keeps muddling along, the election will probably turn on other issues.

If I was a republican I'd be worried about more NY-26 type stuff with infighting. Self Righteousness is crazy among some in the republican party.

 

[Miles Teg]

If I was a republican I'd be worried about more NY-26 type stuff with infighting. Self Righteousness is crazy among some in the republican party.

You mean a third-party candidacy? That could be interesting, if the tea party candidate was in a position to be a spoiler. I could see Palin having the character to do that, and the star power to draw votes despite poor campaigning on her part.

 

[mrt144]

You mean a third-party candidacy? That could be interesting, if the tea party candidate was in a position to be a spoiler. I could see Palin having the character to do that, and the star power to draw votes despite poor campaigning on her part.

Or just not voting, conscientious objector style.

 

[amadeus]

As long as I'm registered in Minnesota, it doesn't matter who I vote for.

 

[NickyJ]

You mean a third-party candidacy? That could be interesting, if the tea party candidate was in a position to be a spoiler. I could see Palin having the character to do that, and the star power to draw votes despite poor campaigning on her part.

Palin isn't that type. She's stupid, but not that stupid. Now Trump on the other hand, I wouldn't doubt it for half a nanosecond.

 

[Ajidica]

If Bachmann doesn't get the nomination, I can seriously see her going third-party.

 

[madviking]

If Bachmann doesn't get the nomination, I can seriously see her going third-party.

I feel that Bachmann is whacky enough to not get the GOP bid, but popular enough to effect the outcome of the election if in fact, she does go third party. Kinda of a Perotesque wildcard.

 

[NickyJ]

If Bachmann doesn't get the nomination, I can seriously see her going third-party.

Nah, I don't think she's the turncoat type. In fact, I don't think any of the actual candidates running right now are interested with going third party.

 

[Cutlass]

I feel that Bachmann is whacky enough to not get the GOP bid, but popular enough to effect the outcome of the election if in fact, she does go third party. Kinda of a Perotesque wildcard.

Not like Perot, no. If she did, she'd pull votes from the far right. Not the center or center-right. So that would be a gift for Obama. The scenario for taking center votes and making it a tossup is someone like Michael Bloomberg to run as a 3rd party.

 

[madviking]

Not like Perot, no. If she did, she'd pull votes from the far right. Not the center or center-right. So that would be a gift for Obama. The scenario for taking center votes and making it a tossup is someone like Michael Bloomberg to run as a 3rd party.

I meant the analogy in effect, not in circumstance.

Perot and Bush split votes -> Clinton wins
GOP and Bachmann split votes -> Obama wins?

 

[Cutlass]

Clinton would have won despite Perot.

 

[NickyJ]

Clinton would have won despite Perot.

Nope. Bush would have won. For the voting percentages, Clinton got 43%, Bush got 38%, and Perot got 19%. Perot got mostly GOP support, so add even 15% to Bush's vote, and Bush would have had 52% and Clinton 48%, giving Bush the win.

The Republicans' only worries for the next election is third party candidate, a wacko candidate, or a candidate who pulls a McCain. Wacko is unlikely and the McCain lesson has probably been learned, so all that's really big is the third party.