I predict disaster for Facebook

[.Shane.]

Douglas Rushkoff weighs in, smartly, as usual.

But appearances can be deceiving. In fact, as I read the situation, we are witnessing the beginning of the end of Facebook. These aren't the symptoms of a company that is winning, but one that is cashing out.

Indeed, 11 years ago this week, when AOL announced its $350 billion merger with Time Warner, I was asked to write an OpEd for the New York Times explaining what the deal between old and new media companies really meant. I said that AOL was cashing in its over-valued dotcom stock in order to purchase a stake in a "real" media company with movie studios, theme parks and even cable. In short, the deal meant AOL knew their reign was over.
...

We will move on, just as we did from the chat rooms of AOL, without even looking back. When the place is as ethereal as a website, our allegiance is much more abstract than it is to a local pub or gym. We don't live there, we don't know the owner, and we are all the more ready to be incensed by the latest change to a privacy policy, or to learn that every one of our social connections has been sold to the highest corporate bidder.

So it's not that MySpace lost and Facebook won. It's that MySpace won first, and Facebook won next. They'll go down in the same order.

 

[Kozmos]

Except Facebook is severely addictive to many people unlike AOL or Myspace.

 

[GamezRule]

Myspace wasn't addictive when everybody was using it?

 

[Kozmos]

Not to my recollection. It was mostly known for hosting bands and lulzy emo teens and wiggers.

 

[GamezRule]

It still does that. I log in every once and a while to see the state of things.

I guess that means twitter is the wave of the future.

 

[Hygro]

Except Facebook is severely addictive to many people unlike AOL or Myspace.

AOL and myspace were equally addictive. Facebook found more users.

Good article Shane, but I don't think so. Myspace fell because it was incomplete and a bad UI combined . AOL failed because they did the same nonsense as real-player. Bad software and an over encumbered, money grubbing experience that bogged down your computer and actively hampered your internet experience.

Facebook could fall, sure, but it doesn't suffer from the same problems. Facebook is very "clean" and and emotionally unintrusive even if it's omnipresent.

 

[gangleri2001]

I subscribe and in three years or four I'll bump this thread.

I promised I'd bump this thread.

FAIL

 

[Mise]

But they've lost Afghanistan.

 

[Hygro]

AOL and myspace were equally addictive. Facebook found more users.

Good article Shane, but I don't think so. Myspace fell because it was incomplete and a bad UI combined . AOL failed because they did the same nonsense as real-player. Bad software and an over encumbered, money grubbing experience that bogged down your computer and actively hampered your internet experience.

Facebook could fall, sure, but it doesn't suffer from the same problems. Facebook is very "clean" and and emotionally unintrusive even if it's omnipresent.

This is no longer true. With some custom use of adblock I was able to get the horrid "trending" section disappeared but facebook is neither clean nor emotionally unintrusive.

Meanwhile the cool place is Instagram, owned by Facebook of course, which might not remain that cool for long. Snapchat isn't really a social network but I think its appeal is the greatest.

Fun fact, I made eye contact with Mark Zuckerberg on the street a couple weeks ago. Didn't know it was him until we had already locked gazes.

 

[LamaGT]

I promised I'd bump this thread.

FAIL

Spoiler :

It's still dying, just slower than expected. Teens in English speaking countries use Facebook more and more rarely, and soon this will move to other countries as well. Adult users, Instagram and mobile make far less revenue, and Facebook has succeeded in keeping up revenues so far with growth in places like India, leading to pretty inflated stock prices. Eventually though it will die, maybe in another 3 years or so.

 

[Algeroth]

But they've lost Afghanistan.

Bad Blue got Afganistan. They lost Persia.

 

[Mise]

Doh, you're right, got my countries mixed up.

 

[warpus]

Is there still a demographical shift away from facebook? I've noticed that younger people tend to join "more hip" social networks like .. uhh.. I'm too old to really know.

But is this a thing or isn't it a thing? It seemed for a while that a whole slew of old people was joining facebook, and all the youngins were disillusioned about what sort of place it was becoming.

 

[Mise]

"Old" is relative, don't forget. Sure, Facebook has an ageing demographic, and teenagers might be using other services instead. But "old" in the context of Facebook is still only "people in their 30s". They're going to be around for decades to come; it will be a long time before demographics has any serious impact on Facebook as a company.

 

[Tigranes]

I promised I'd bump this thread.

Wow, you really remember your promises. When I was 16 I wrote a letter to my older self.
Still waiting to open it, but I am so curious what am I saying to myself there

 

[Kennigit]

Im surprised facebook got korea/japan since they already had their own stuff

I guess international popularity has to have some effect. I wonder if google is growing in korea compared to naver

The korean scene for esports definitely started to branch to facebook/twitter instead of cyworld

 

[kramerfan86]

I think eventually its heavy handed advertising and privacy violations will eventually get it replaced. It losing its cool factor with teens as adults use it more will also cripple it.

 

[Zack]

"Old" is relative, don't forget. Sure, Facebook has an ageing demographic, and teenagers might be using other services instead. But "old" in the context of Facebook is still only "people in their 30s". They're going to be around for decades to come; it will be a long time before demographics has any serious impact on Facebook as a company.

As long as it has groups and events, it's not going away. Really that's all I use it for, and I don't know what would replace it.

 

[Kozmos]

I mainly use it to talk some people who don't Skype and as a kind of a news feed for a few pages about politics, satire and science.

 

[cybrxkhan]

As long as it has groups and events, it's not going away. Really that's all I use it for, and I don't know what would replace it.

Groups and events make things a lot easier to coordinate with friends or organizations you're in. There're alternatives, of course, but none as convenient as facebook since 95% of the people I know my age or within ~15 years of my age are on facebook.

I can contact certain people on facebook I wouldn't be able to contact elsewhere, that's important.

Though people might not use facebook as fanatically anymore, it's still going strong. Sure, I expect it to decline one day, but that day is far away from what I've seen.