If you are debating intervention in Syria ...

[red_elk]

That's not how I remember it. I remember peaceful demonstrators being shot at.

Do you also remember their demands, and whether they wanted to negotiate anything with the government?

 

[Borachio]

No. I can't say I do. I expect they were full of demands - like the rest of the Arab Spring.

But whereas Egypt managed to "negotiate" (in the sense of finding its way) through, without landing itself in a civil war (yet), Syria didn't.

 

[DemonicAppleGuY]

But whereas Egypt managed to "negotiate" (in the sense of finding its way) through, without landing itself in a civil war (yet), Syria didn't.

While I agree with you mostly, the situation in Egypt is/was a little than in Syria.

The balance of power between the government and the military in Egypt is fairly different than in Syria.

Egypt is really an interesting case.

 

[red_elk]

No. I can't say I do. I expect they were full of demands - like the rest of the Arab Spring.

I can remind you, they were demanding Assad to leave. From the beginning. Your question was, why Assad didn't negotiate with them - he tried to, proposing elections and creation of coalition government. Answering your question, if Assad after years of war starts negotiating with the opposition, that would be what he tried to do from 2011. They are not trying to talk, they are seizing the power forcefully.

But whereas Egypt managed to "negotiate" (in the sense of finding its way) through, without landing itself in a civil war (yet), Syria didn't.

This is true, though it doesn't mean Syrian government is responsible for civil war.
You can always avoid fight by surrendering to your enemy, but it's not always an optimal solution for everybody.

 

[Borachio]

I don't disagree with you.

The Syrian civil war, also known as the Syrian uprising[54] or Syrian crisis (Arabic: الأزمة السوري&#1577,[55] is an ongoing armed conflict in Syria between forces loyal to the Ba'ath government and those seeking to oust it. The conflict began on 15 March 2011, with popular demonstrations that grew nationwide by April 2011. These demonstrations were part of the wider Middle Eastern protest movement known as the Arab Spring. Protesters demanded the resignation of President Bashar al-Assad, whose family has held the presidency in Syria since 1971, as well as the end of Ba'ath Party rule, which began in 1963.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_civil_war

These "facts" seem to be largely correct?

It would seem that Assad's role as heir to his father's dynasty is not a welcome one to many Syrians.

And if he couldn't manage to negotiate with his opposition two years ago (I remain to be convinced his offer was sincere), isn't he even less able to now?

 

[Pangur Bán]

In case people are blah-blahing the US's road deaths, I'll put what I said above in another more dramatic way. Poor US driving standards wipe out the equivalent of a city the size of Seattle every two decades. Most of the victims are mutilated, burned or gassed to death.

I guess it's something you'll only care about if it happens to someone you care about, but just because there's no evil villain and baddie cronies behind it doesn't make US road deaths better than Syrian political deaths. It's actually something however that the ordinary American should be able to understand and engage with, unlike the labyrinthine micro-politics you need to master to understand whether or not bombing a place may or may not save or kill more people.

 

[red_elk]

It would seem that Assad's role as heir to his father's dynasty is not a welcome one to many Syrians.

Yes, and welcomed by many other Syrians, as everybody have noticed. Knowing the outcome of "Arab spring" revolutions in all the other countries, we can safely assume that the replacement government wouldn't be any more secular or democratic than the current one. Not because of civil war, Sunni radicals were behind all recent "democratic" revolutions in all Arabian countries, including Egypt and Libya.

 

[Traitorfish]

Yes, and welcomed by many other Syrians, as everybody have noticed. Knowing the outcome of "Arab spring" revolutions in all the other countries, we can safely assume that the replacement government wouldn't be any more secular or democratic than the current one. Not because of civil war, Sunni radicals were behind all recent "democratic" revolutions in all Arabian countries, including Egypt and Libya.

"Arabian countries" is a pretty empty category. It doesn't tell us anything about the internal politics of a country.

 

[Borachio]

Yeah. Well.

See, that's the difficult trick with democracies. Those elected have to undertake to represent even those who vote against them.

But, then, Assad has never been elected. Or has he? I wouldn't know.

He does seem to have rather upset a major portion of the Syrian population, though, wouldn't you say?

Or was it all engineered by outside forces?

 

[Cheezy the Wiz]

Yeah. Well.

See, that's the difficult trick with democracies. Those elected have to undertake to represent even those who vote against them.

But, then, Assad has never been elected. Or has he? I wouldn't know.

Actually, the Syrian Constitution was amended last year after the crisis broke out. The amendments removed the constitutional role of the Baath Party and provided for multiparty elections beginning in 2014, with the President serving a single 7 year term. Assad has since announced that if he does not feel popular support to be strong enough for him, he will not seek election.

 

[Borachio]

Well, I'm glad to hear it.

I sincerely hope it works out for all parties.

Now, about that ceasefire...

And the truth and reconciliation commission.

 

[trader/warrior]

In case people are blah-blahing the US's road deaths, I'll put what I said above in another more dramatic way. Poor US driving standards wipe out the equivalent of a city the size of Seattle every two decades. Most of the victims are mutilated, burned or gassed to death.

I guess it's something you'll only care about if it happens to someone you care about, but just because there's no evil villain and baddie cronies behind it doesn't make US road deaths better than Syrian political deaths. It's actually something however that the ordinary American should be able to understand and engage with, unlike the labyrinthine micro-politics you need to master to understand whether or not bombing a place may or may not save or kill more people.

Compared to the amount of money spent on keeping the US road network up to standards (quick search says $80 billion per month), the political will to invest in safe transportation is absolutely massive compared to support for intervention in Syria.

 

[red_elk]

He does seem to have rather upset a major portion of the Syrian population, though, wouldn't you say?

Perhaps. As many leaders in the world, if not majority of them. I would say though, the uprising would unlikely be possible without foreign support, yes.

Now, about that ceasefire...
And the truth and reconciliation commission.

Wanna volunteer to discuss ceasefire terms with democrats from Al Nusra?

 

[Borachio]

No thanks.

You have a point.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Compared to the amount of money spent on keeping the US road network up to standards (quick search says $80 billion per month), the political will to invest in safe transportation is absolutely massive compared to support for intervention in Syria.

America's roads are fantastic. US doesn't have a problem with roads, it has problems with low standards of driver training and, partially as a consequence, poor cultural attitudes towards confrontation, safety, alcohol use, and so on.

It really does illustrate how important narratives and story-telling are to political attitude among the populous. Most Americans probably will know of someone who has died in a road accident, but it's all just meaningless disconnected data without a story. Now, if we had a car crash devil who hated America and needed to be fought off with patriotic displays of good driving, and if rigorous training and testing were required to defeat his anti-American minions ,that would be something different.

That may sound silly, but there is much wisdom to be gained by asking why the above does not have such a story but, nonetheless, some random Middle Eastern ruler will get a similar story every few years. How does that work?

 

[ReindeerThistle]

Some random Middle East leaders don't do what the US wants them to do...

So, that's how that works. In one of the Syria threads I pointed out the role oil plays in this -- and how weakening support of Iran and fomenting instability in the region helps the Saudis/ Arab League keep oil flowing out of the Persian gulf (43% of which goes to Asia). Iran's new president is making positive overtures to the US, but nothing lasts forever.

 

[Borachio]

In case people are blah-blahing the US's road deaths, I'll put what I said above in another more dramatic way. Poor US driving standards wipe out the equivalent of a city the size of Seattle every two decades. Most of the victims are mutilated, burned or gassed to death.

I guess it's something you'll only care about if it happens to someone you care about, but just because there's no evil villain and baddie cronies behind it doesn't make US road deaths better than Syrian political deaths. It's actually something however that the ordinary American should be able to understand and engage with, unlike the labyrinthine micro-politics you need to master to understand whether or not bombing a place may or may not save or kill more people.

Road deaths are trivial compared with tobacco related deaths, are they not?

In the end, people's assessment of risk is lacking, I'd say.

If you smoke you have a 1 in 4 (most recently I've heard it's 1 in 2) chance of dying prematurely from the effects.

And the chances of getting killed in a road traffic accident outweigh the chances of getting killed by a gun wielding maniac (actually that might not be true in the US - in most places it is true though), which in turn outweigh the chances of being killed in a terrorist incident.

But which risks get the most attention?

 

[GoodGame]

If they are using, exporting, and exporting to terrorist users, then I see no reason why we shouldn't be concerned. We're as likely to be the next target.

If they are violating international law with respect to their civil war, within the bounds of their country, then it's best a matter through international courts/diplomacy. That's basically what US government seems to want.

 

[Borachio]

Two Syrian rebel groups in the town of Azaz have agreed a ceasefire.

The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (Isis), linked to al-Qaeda, seized the northern town on Wednesday from the larger Western-backed Free Syrian Army.

Fighting between rebel groups has raised fears of a war within a war.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-24173618

I didn't know that there was enough inter-opposition strife for a cease fire to be worthwhile.

Is the civil war turning into a pub brawl (or the medieval melee at jousting tournaments), where everyone just fights everyone else?

 

[Glububble]

I just wish the Americans would stop bombing everything they didn't like.