Let's Discuss Taiwan

[Patine]

They have no problem with the US. The US government on the other hand......

At any given time, AT LEAST 50% of Americans have a problem with the U.S. Government...

 

[Commodore]

At any given time, AT LEAST 50% of Americans have a problem with the U.S. Government...

And how people feel about their government isn't really a useful metric for anything nowadays since hating one's government has been the trendy thing to do since...well since forever.

 

[Ferocitus]

Yes, a housing bubble bursting can be mitigated by a totalitarian regime. However, I see no preparations for easing the pressure on this bubble. If it bursts during a trade war, it is quite possible that China will have a Lost Decade akin to Japan in the 1990s. Japan had a very prolonged but rather mild recession because it did all it could to mitigate the impact of its 1980s bubble burst. China will either see an immediate and extreme recession or a milder but longer-lasting recession. A mild but long recession would have the least social upheaval, and China hates social upheaval. However, if the CCP inflates the bubble too much and doesn't prepare for its burst, that will be exactly what they will see. The bubble is big enough that a well-timed trade war and backing of China's neighbors could throw China into another civil war.

It's the "could bes" and "maybe ifs" and "if they don't do thises" that bug
me about these sort of economic predictions at the best of times. When it
involves China it's even less predictable for outsiders because the same rules
don't apply. Japan's housing problems can't be glibly ported to China as if they
are similar enough for reliable predictions to be made, even more so if you're
looking several years into future.

The USA and China (and others) will face huge problems with many housing and
building related challenges, sooner than later. That's just my guess based on
the over-estimate of lifespans of steel reinforced concrete structures.

Both nations are more than capable of fixing them but they will do it in their
own way. The USA's huge industrial base and its splendid scientists and
engineers can do just about anything. That might need tax increases, however,
which could take time to arrange. China can mobilise a huge workforce along with
some remarkable scientific and engineering credentials too. And they can hit top
gear very fast when the need arises.

The Bloomsberg type of predictions are just crystal-ball gazing by BS-artists
and journos who are trying to pump their own media outlets with sensational
junk. Show us their previous predictions about Chinese economic performance and
their successes and failures and I'll give them some credit. Otherwise, they are
no more reliable than Mystic Meg at picking the winner of the 3rd race at
Bullawoopwoop two years from today.

 

[Takhisis]

That may be so, but shirking our duty to Taiwan may also be in the world's best interest. Considering the players involved, us living up to our obligation to Taiwan would definitely be a spark for WWIII. Are you really prepared to risk global annihilation and possibly the end of human civilization just so Taiwan can remain independent?

So while Trump's motives for potentially abandoning Taiwan would certainly be far from noble, it may still ultimately be the right thing to do. You know, the whole sacrifice the few for the good of the many thing? Taiwan currently has a population of around 23 million. I'd gladly trade the freedom of 23 million to save the lives of the billions that would surely die in a global war, or even to save the hundreds of millions that would die in a regional war.

It was posted before, but I think it's worth repeating that this is simply the reasons cited for appeasement in the 1930s.

Taiwan should take the advantage (if they had any sense) while Trump's position is not clear and obvious yet, to negotiate an "autonomous province" entry to maintain a significant part (if not all, certainly) of their political, economic, social, and cultural (a la, Macau and Hong Kong), and peacefully accept where the wind is blowing, before Trump's ambivalence becomes obvious and STATED non-commitment.

Not at all, given that Macau and Hong Kong are steadily and not-so-slowly losing their special status. Taiwan had better negotiate formal independence while they still have time.

Has modern China even staged a coup against a foreign government yet, much less invaded anyone?

Does Korea in the 1950s count? Mongolia? Tibet? Sinkiang? For an anti-imperialist state they sure have been living up to ancient dynastic imperial claims.

No, it doesn't support your position at all. Your position was that the entire world hates the US. Those poll numbers show that to be a patently false claim. At worst, the world's attitude towards the US is mostly "meh" and "meh" is pretty far away from outright hatred as you claim.

No, man, it just shows that since you still outspend the rest of the world combined and you have all the nukes and aircraft carriers and drones and cruise missiles and what-not we just think it's safer not to be against you.

The interventions of the US government have often, if not usually, consisted of toppling local governments, training the ruling class and military to allow US companies to make massive profits at little to no taxation and massacre the dissenters (or even non-dissenters, just for fun and personal profit) and then tell us how undemocratic we are and call us rapists and drug smugglers and so on.

So yeah, go soft power, we love (some of) your TV series and cinema, rock bands, etc. but with hard power we notAmericans get screwed. Being a diehard Ramones/Pantera fan is completely compatible with detesting the U.S. government.

 

[Arwon]

Does Korea in the 1950s count? Mongolia? Tibet? Sinkiang? For an anti-imperialist state they sure have been living up to ancient dynastic imperial claims..

Yep, am quite mindful of those, was sorta deploying "modern" to mean after the whole "the most generous self-applied interpretation of our historical borders, although not quite as insane as the Republic of China's claims" stuff. So maybe since the 1970s or 80s?

Mostly I make the distinction for the purpose of this dumb internet argument because plenty of powerful countries do those sorts of things (eg Indonesian annexation of West Papua, India's various annexations, the US somehow ending up on the Pacific Coast and the coup and annexation in Hawaii), so it's not really evidence of a particular appetite for general expansionism as such.

There's rumours they were involved in encouraging or approving the move against Mugabe in Zimbabwe, but that's about the only one I'm aware of so far.

Being a diehard Ramones/Pantera fan is completely compatible with detesting the U.S. government.

The most universally loved and understood single product of American culture globally these days is probably the Simpsons, which is something that specifically encourages mockery and disdain towards basically every locus of authority and power in the US.

(ok it's actually the avowedly internationalist Marvel movies collectively, these days, but go with me here)

 

[Takhisis]

Yep, am quite mindful of those, was sorta deploying "modern" to mean after the whole "the most generous self-applied interpretation of our historical borders, although not quite as insane as the Republic of China's claims" stuff. So maybe since the 1970s or 80s?

Mostly I make the distinction for the purpose of this dumb internet argument because plenty of powerful countries do those sorts of things (eg Indonesian annexation of West Papua, India's various annexations, the US somehow ending up on the Pacific Coast and the coup and annexation in Hawaii), so it's not really evidence of a particular appetite for general expansionism as such.

There's rumours they were involved in encouraging or approving the move against Mugabe in Zimbabwe, but that's about the only one I'm aware of so far.

China did invade Viet Nam when their fellow communist brethren dared to try and restore some sanity to Polpotia.

The most universally loved and understood single product of American culture globally these days is probably the Simpsons, which is something that specifically encourages mockery and disdain towards basically every locus of authority and power in the US.

(ok it's actually the avowedly internationalist Marvel movies collectively, these days, but go with me here)

Don't the words ‘Aw, Tipper, come on’ ring a bell?

 

[Arwon]

That is true! Though to go back to the original argument, an American citing invading Vietnam as evidence of another country's expansionist inclinations would be quite a thing.

I am afraid I have no idea what you're referring to with Tipper ):

 

[Takhisis]

That is true! Though to go back to the original argument, an American citing invading Vietnam as evidence of another country's expansionist inclinations would be quite a thing.

Wait until the traitorous Cutlass gets home from work tomorrow.

I am afraid I have no idea what you're referring to with Tipper ):

Spoiler mild profanity :

And the Ramones did come onto the Simpsons. I hope you remember the episode.

 

[Ferocitus]

And the Ramones did come onto the Simpsons. I hope you remember the episode.

Of course, I'm stupid, not senile.
Some old friends of mine were in a band named "Exploding White Mice". Without
looking up wiki, do you know what inspired the name?

 

[Broken_Erika]

Of course, I'm stupid, not senile.
Some old friends of mine were in a band named "Exploding White Mice". Without
looking up wiki, do you know what inspired the name?

A video about an asian guy's pharmacy?

 

[Sommerswerd]

Itchy and Scratchy?

 

[Ferocitus]

Itchy and Scratchy?

Not quite.

I'm fairly sure some of the lab equipment was made in Taiwan.

 

[Cutlass]

Wait until the traitorous Cutlass gets home from work tomorrow.

While it's true that there is imperialism in every nation's past, it is also true that the lack of trying to forcibly expand one's borders at the expense of other nations has corresponded to a notable reduction in major wars since WWII. Russia and China trying to go back to the old rules is not in the interests of anyone other than Russia and China.

 

[Patine]

While it's true that there is imperialism in every nation's past, it is also true that the lack of trying to forcibly expand one's borders at the expense of other nations has corresponded to a notable reduction in major wars since WWII. Russia and China trying to go back to the old rules is not in the interests of anyone other than Russia and China.

Ah, yes, the great Imperialistic past of San Marino, a nation that has literally held the same borders since the 5th Century and can't even claim the banking empire that Liechtenstein has...

 

[Bugfatty300]

Mostly I make the distinction for the purpose of this dumb internet argument because plenty of powerful countries do those sorts of things (eg Indonesian annexation of West Papua, India's various annexations, the US somehow ending up on the Pacific Coast and the coup and annexation in Hawaii), so it's not really evidence of a particular appetite for general expansionism as such.

Ohio: 1782
Mississippi: 1805
Texas 1845
California: 1848
Alaska: 1867
Hawaii: 1898
Guam: 1898
Philippines: 1902
Japan: 1945
Korea: 1953
Vietnam: 1972 detour
Afghanistan: 2001
Iraq: 2003

I wonder if the US will ever complete the circle. Bahamas:????

 

[Sommerswerd]

We already did... you forgot Canada, Cuba, Grenada, Puerto Rico, The Vigin Islands, Samoa...

The sun never sets on the Union's Old Glory

AMERICA! EFF YEAH!!

 

[Sommerswerd]

Not quite.
I'm fairly sure some of the lab equipment was made in Taiwan.

QFT

 

[Farm Boy]

At any given time, AT LEAST 50% of Americans have a problem with the U.S. Government...

It's one of the things that makes us great. Oh snap!

QFT

That character gets more relatable by the year.

 

[Traitorfish]

Although it appears that Russian astronauts are made in Sweden.

(The amazing about Peter Stormare is not that he has played every nationality in Europe, because that could just mean he's good at accents. What's amazing is that he's played every nationality in Europe while using exactly the same accent.)

 

[Takhisis]

While it's true that there is imperialism in every nation's past, it is also true that the lack of trying to forcibly expand one's borders at the expense of other nations has corresponded to a notable reduction in major wars since WWII. Russia and China trying to go back to the old rules is not in the interests of anyone other than Russia and China.

YOU FISH-SLAPPED ME!
I meant that you would be one of the 'Murican citizens not afraid to point out that invading Viet Nam is usually a sign of imperialistic behaviour.

Re: the bolded, hell yeah, we agree. And re: the unbolded, consensus is good, isn't it? What a pity that POTUS and soon SCOTUS will do their best to destroy consensus, both forwards and backwards.

Although it appears that Russian astronauts are made in Sweden.

(The amazing about Peter Stormare is not that he has played every nationality in Europe, because that could just mean he's good at accents. What's amazing is that he's played every nationality in Europe while using exactly the same accent.)

After having rewatched The Matrix for the umpteenth time last weekend, I must point out that this bears a great similarity to how chicken (in the US) tastes like everything.