Libya: Seriously, where is this going?

[GamezRule]

If Qaddafi was a bad ruler, what to say of people so inept as to be unable to overthrow them

We seem to have this impression that dictators can't be popular.

 

[bestrfcplayer]

Let's hope Gaddafi will be able to suppress these scoundrels and restore the constitutional order in the country.

Why? If anything, Gaddafi needs to be put down, I mean, he started this civil war by murdering his own countrymen.

 

[SerriaFox]

I am not really in favor of invading Libya. I am just saying, that if the US, NATO, EU or UN invade they should do so in strength and with a long-term commitment. Like 500,000 to 1,000,000 men and 5 years. Anything less would invite failure.

 

[innonimatu]

Why? If anything, Gaddafi needs to be put down, I mean, he started this civil war by murdering his own countrymen.

Did he really? The way I recall it, there were plenty of claims in western media during the two-day drum-up to war, but no evidence. If you have any, please post it. I recall very well the lies used to justify a very similar war, the NATO attack on Serbia over Kosovo back in 1999, where footage of an alleged massacre of civilians (Račak massacre) was used, only to be exposed as a lie (the dead had been filled in a fight between the UÇK and Serbian forces, and later depicted as civilians) and had to be dropped by the kangaroo court trying to convict Milosevic at The Hague. And I also recall a testimony about iraqi soldiers pillaging hospitals and dumping newborns out of incubators in Kuwait in 1990, another one which was later proven a lie. Both were capable, at the time, of fooling useful idiots in many humanitarian organizations to support the planned wars.

Consent for war is easily manufactured. I argue that it is highly likely, based on prior experience, that this present attack on Libya resulted from similar propaganda. The bombardments by the libyan air force which did happen were claimed by the government to have targeted weapons depots being attacked, ir order to prevent their use by rebels. Which matches perfectly with what the rebels themselves stated about events in several places in western Libya (depots attacked, rebels broaden their armed rebellion).
The interesting thing in all this are the early defections of a portion of the Libyan regime - not mere soldiers, but generals and ministers. This is the one thing which makes me suspect that they had support (as in... promises!) from foreign backers who bet on arranging a palace coup and attendant civil war in Libya. Probably elements from what I call the "intelligence-military complex", which has been growing in several western countries. They thrive on foreign wars, which is their excuse for existing. The more they can get their countries involved on, the better! What they can get from an invasion of Libya would not be oil or any other spoils of war, but simply promotions for military officers, larger budgets for intelligence agencies to carry out their wars on whatever, and business for weapons manufacturers.

 

[Snorrius]

Why? If anything, Gaddafi needs to be put down, I mean, he started this civil war by murdering his own countrymen.

Propaganda. It may be possible that there were some casualities when army were suppressing riots and uprising but I doubt it justifies NATO invoilment. As I said - NATO can not even find decent casus belly these days.

 

[Ayn Rand]

Probably elements from what I call the "intelligence-military complex", which has been growing in several western countries. They thrive on foreign wars, which is their excuse for existing. The more they can get their countries involved on, the better! What they can get from an invasion of Libya would not be oil or any other spoils of war, but simply promotions for military officers, larger budgets for intelligence agencies to carry out their wars on whatever, and business for weapons manufacturers.

While some of your analysis had some precedent, this is just silly - the military budget in Britain [main adversary] is being cut, and believe it or not, most people in special forces/intelligence don't like running around risking torture and death.

Also, if this was a coup attempt then it is probably much more likely that the people inside the country were the ones who instigated it and then brought foreign powers on board, rather than the other way around. It's been an amateur and confusing side-show so far, as all things involving this muppet Gadhaffi usually are.

 

[innonimatu]

While some of your analysis had some precedent, this is just silly - the military budget in Britain [main adversary] is being cut, and believe it or not, most people in special forces/intelligence don't like running around risking torture and death.

Ongoing foreign wars have been advanced as an argument for dropping those cuts, I take it?

And if most people in special forces/intelligence didn't like doing heir jobs, you would have to wonder why they chose them in the first place. The argument might apply very well to conscript soldiers. Even to professional ones. But it doesn't apply so well to those self-selected for the roles you just mentioned.

Any foreign involvement at the start of the rebellion is just an hypothesis, of course. It may have had purely local causes. But I can't believe that the interior minister, himself reportedly also a nasty man, would challenge Qaddafi if he didn't think he had a fair change at winning. And I don't think he would be so badly informed that he thought he could win without outside help. Anyway, if he had been promised support, he's certainly not going to be able to tell the story now! Convenient.

 

[Benefactor]

Ongoing foreign wars have been advanced as an argument for dropping those cuts, I take it?

...not that I've noticed, no.

 

[Camikaze]

If Qaddafi was a bad ruler, what to say of people so inept as to be unable to overthrow them, even with foreign bombs and weapons aiding them?

I'm not sure I understand the logic here. Qaddafi's 'badness' doesn't come from an inability to prosecute a military campaign. How does that inability on the part of the rebels reflect on whether they'd be a better alternative to Qaddafi at ruling Libya?

 

[Formaldehyde]

NATO just tried to take out Libyan TV, because it was a "key propaganda tool" which is being used to "incite violence and threaten civilians".

The circumstances surrounding the death of Younis are now deemed to be "mysterious". And many now suspect he and his top aides were assassinated by the rebels, after their burned bodies were discovered to have been apparently "dumped" outside the compound where he had seemingly been held after being arrested for "mismanaging" the war.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/world/7676843.html

RIPOLI, Libya — NATO warplanes bombed three Libyan state TV satellite transmitters in Tripoli overnight, targeting a key propaganda tool that the military alliance said Saturday is used by Moammar Gadhafi's government to incite violence and threaten civilians.

Libya's rebel movement, meanwhile, appeared in disarray after the mysterious death of its chief military commander in a killing that some witnesses said was carried out by fellow rebel fighters who suspected him of treason.

The rebels' political leader sought to dispel any notions of infighting on Saturday and accused Gadhafi supporters of killing Abdel-Fattah Younis. He told reporters that the commander, who was Gadhafi's interior minister before defecting, had not been suspected of treason but had been arrested after complaints he was mismanaging rebel forces.

Abdel-Fattah Younis' body was found dumped outside the rebels' de facto capital of Benghazi on Thursday along with the bodies of two colonels who were his top aides. They had been shot and their bodies burned.

His killing while in rebel custody immediately raised suspicions that he was assassinated by his own side. But Abdul-Jalil said authorities had the names of those behind the attack and believed they were acting on behalf of the Gadhafi regime. No arrests have yet been made, he said.

 

[Snorrius]

NATO just tried to take out Libyan TV, because it was a "key propaganda tool" which is being used to "incite violence and threaten civilians".

They are talking iike Polutburo.

 

[Winner]

They are talking iike Polutburo.

Yes, that's exactly what the Libyan regime sounds like

I wish somebody had bombed the Rwandan radio station that kept inciting people to "kill the cockroaches" (=Tutsi civilians). Actually back then the UN asked the US to at least jam it, but the Americans said it would be too expensive.

 

[Snorrius]

I wish somebody had bombed the Rwandan radio station that kept inciting people to "kill the cockroaches" (=Tutsi civilians). Actually back then the UN asked the US to at least jam it, but the Americans said it would be too expensive.

That's right. Rwandan conflict is much more brutal and comparing to it Gaddafi's misdeeds are angel-like. But if there enough oil in Rwanda? You can not build good democracy without enough oil .

 

[Ayn Rand]

That's right. Rwandan conflict is much more brutal and comparing to it Gaddafi's misdeeds are angel-like. But if there enough oil in Rwanda? You can not build good democracy without enough oil .

Here's some logic for you - if the Rwandan genocide had actually been stopped then no, it would not have been brutal. It would not been brutal because it would not have happened. And because it would not have been brutal, we would have been criticised by people like you who would have said "why are you intervening in Rwanda - nothing has happened!"

 

[Snorrius]

Here's some logic for you - if the Rwandan genocide had actually been stopped then no, it would not have been brutal. It would not been brutal because it would not have happened. And because it would not have been brutal, we would have been criticised by people like you who would have said "why are you intervening in Rwanda - nothing has happened!"

They would not be able to stop genocide in Rwanda by air strikes. But they even refused to bomb some radiostation while they eagerly joined some marginal rebel group. I do not actually saying it is bad in principle - it is normal to support or lend help for/against someone who is important for you national/organizational interests and Rwanda is just some third-world country populated with poor black guys, but all this speeches about how noble NATO fights for the best interests of Lybian people while destroying the country smells with propaganda too much.

 

[innonimatu]

I'm not sure I understand the logic here. Qaddafi's 'badness' doesn't come from an inability to prosecute a military campaign. How does that inability on the part of the rebels reflect on whether they'd be a better alternative to Qaddafi at ruling Libya?

It's not just military inability on part of the rebels to conduct a campaign. It's:
- lack of recruits (they have plenty of weapons already, more on that below)
- lack of rebellions against the government over much of Libya
In other words, few people there are willing to risk their lives in order to replace the government. It does say something about the contenders in this civil war.

And about those accusation of "Viagra for rape" taken up by the prosecutors of that kangaroo court based at The Hague against Qaddafi (funny how that court only accuses people who are slated to be removed by the governments of the european countries who set it up):

Amnesty questions claim that Gaddafi ordered rape as weapon of war
By Patrick Cockburn
Friday, 24 June 2011

An investigation by Amnesty International has failed to find evidence for these human rights violations and in many cases has discredited or cast doubt on them. It also found indications that on several occasions the rebels in Benghazi appeared to have knowingly made false claims or manufactured evidence.

The findings by the investigators appear to be at odds with the views of the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Luis Moreno-Ocampo, who two weeks ago told a press conference that "we have information that there was a policy to rape in Libya those who were against the government. Apparently he [Colonel Gaddafi] used it to punish people."

US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton last week said she was "deeply concerned" that Gaddafi's troops were participating in widespread rape in Libya. "Rape, physical intimidation, sexual harassment, and even so-called 'virginity tests' have taken place in countries throughout the region," she said.

Donatella Rovera, senior crisis response adviser for Amnesty, who was in Libya for three months after the start of the uprising, says that "we have not found any evidence or a single victim of rape or a doctor who knew about somebody being raped".

She stresses this does not prove that mass rape did not occur but there is no evidence to show that it did. Liesel Gerntholtz, head of women's rights at Human Rights Watch, which also investigated the charge of mass rape, said: "We have not been able to find evidence."

In one instance two captured pro-Gaddafi soldiers presented to the international media by the rebels claimed their officers, and later themselves, had raped a family with four daughters. Ms Rovera says that when she and a colleague, both fluent in Arabic, interviewed the two detainees, one 17 years old and one 21, alone and in separate rooms, they changed their stories and gave differing accounts of what had happened. "They both said they had not participated in the rape and just heard about it," she said. "They told different stories about whether or not the girls' hands were tied, whether their parents were present and about how they were dressed."

Seemingly the strongest evidence for mass rape appeared to come from a Libyan psychologist, Dr Seham Sergewa, who says she distributed 70,000 questionnaires in rebel-controlled areas and along the Tunisian border, of which over 60,000 were returned. Some 259 women volunteered that they had been raped, of whom Dr Sergewa said she interviewed 140 victims.

Asked by Diana Eltahawy, Amnesty International's specialist on Libya, if it would be possible to meet any of these women, Dr Sergewa replied that "she had lost contact with them" and was unable to provide documentary evidence.

The accusation that Viagra had been distributed to Gaddafi's troops to encourage them to rape women in rebel areas first surfaced in March after Nato had destroyed tanks advancing on Benghazi. Ms Rovera says that rebels dealing with the foreign media in Benghazi started showing journalists packets of Viagra, claiming they came from burned-out tanks, though it is unclear why the packets were not charred.

Credible evidence of rape came when Eman al-Obeidy burst into a hotel in Tripoli on 26 March to tell journalists she had been gang-raped before being dragged away by the Libyan security services.

Rebels have repeatedly charged that mercenary troops from Central and West Africa have been used against them. The Amnesty investigation found there was no evidence for this. "Those shown to journalists as foreign mercenaries were later quietly released," says Ms Rovera. "Most were sub-Saharan migrants working in Libya without documents."

Others were not so lucky and were lynched or executed. Ms Rovera found two bodies of migrants in the Benghazi morgue and others were dumped on the outskirts of the city. She says: "The politicians kept talking about mercenaries, which inflamed public opinion and the myth has continued because they were released without publicity."

«Il y a eu des dizaines de cas de soldats assassinés»

Conseillère d’Amnesty International pour le Moyen-Orient et l’Afrique, Donatella Rovera revient de Libye où elle a enquêté sur les exactions commises du côté des rebelles. Interview

Q: Il y a eu de la part des forces loyales à Kadhafi des crimes de guerre à grande échelle, on sait moins ce qui s’est passé dans les zones contrôlées par l’opposition…

Au début du soulèvement, des ressortissants étrangers et des soldats ont été tués. Ce sont des cas particuliers, il n’y a pas eu d’exactions à grande échelle. Mais cela s’est greffé sur un fort sentiment de racisme et de xénophobie dans la population qui s’en est prise à des gens de couleur dont elle disait qu’ils étaient Africains alors qu’ils pouvaient très bien être du Sud de la Libye. Or, rien n’a été fait du côté des autorités pour enquêter et traduire en justice les auteurs de ces actes. Les gens du Conseil national de transition (CNT) [organe de direction de l’opposition, ndlr] sont contre ce qu’il s’est passé, mais ont-ils la volonté politique de faire quelque chose et de se confronter aux rebelles dont ils dépendent pour leur sécurité ? Il faudrait que le CNT dise de manière plus forte son opposition à ces exactions.

Q: Certains ont-ils été à la solde de Kadhafi ?

Ce mythe persiste. On continue à penser que les tueries ont été commises par des mercenaires. Or, il n’y a dans les prisons [de l’opposition, ndlr] que 9 ou 10 étrangers. La conséquence d’un tel mythe est qu’on est arrivé à une situation où des citoyens libyens ont attaqué des Africains dans les rues uniquement pour la couleur de leur peau. Il y a eu aussi des soldats capturés qui ont été battus et torturés. Une fois dans les centres de détention, ces pratiques cessent. Mais nous n’avons pas connaissance qu’il y a eu des efforts pour que cessent ces agressions. Enfin, des éléments des services de sécurité du régime ont été enlevés chez eux et on les a retrouvés pieds et mains liés, une balle dans la tête avec cette inscription : «Chiens de Kadhafi». En tout, il y a eu des dizaines de cas de soldats assassinés.

Q: La communauté internationale peut-elle faire quelque chose ?

Les pays qui soutiennent le CNT doivent le faire de façon critique et constructive pour que ces pratiques ne se répandent pas. Il n’y a aucune raison pour que le système judiciaire soit complètement paralysé (dans l’Est). Il y a des détenus en prison depuis plusieurs mois qui n’ont pas vu un avocat. Ce n’est pas très facile car c’est le règne des hommes armés. Pour en revenir au mythe des mercenaires africains, lorsque l’économie va reprendre, les immigrés vont revenir et, le traitement qu’ils avaient étant déjà très mauvais, leur situation va être encore plus difficile. C’est un problème à ne pas négliger.

Q: Du côté Kadhafi, on parle beaucoup de viols de masse commis par son armée ?

Nous n’avons pas trouvé de cas de viol, ce qui ne veut pas dire qu’il n’y en a pas eu mais cela pose néanmoins des problèmes. Non seulement nous n’avons pas rencontré de victimes, mais pas davantage de personnes qui ont rencontré des victimes. Quant aux boîtes de Viagra que Kadhafi aurait fait distribuer, on les a découvertes intactes à proximité de chars qui, eux, étaient complètement brûlés. C’est vrai que le régime de Kadhafi a commis des crimes à grande échelle, notamment à Misrata, où la population civile a extrêmement souffert de bombardements. Sans doute, il y a eu des crimes de guerre lorsque les forces loyalistes ont ratissé en mars des quartiers entiers et emmené, de façon quasi systématique, tous les hommes dont les familles sont toujours sans nouvelle […]. Mais les crimes commis par Kadhafi n’excusent pas ceux commis, même à moindre échelle, par les autres. Ces crimes sont imprescriptibles. Tout le monde devra rendre des comptes.

There's also some other news, both recent and old, which are interesting:

Libyan rebels have conceded ground since bombing began
By Kim Sengupta, Defence Correspondent
Wednesday, 27 July 2011

Fresh diplomatic efforts are under way to try to end Libya's bloody civil war, with the UN special envoy flying to Tripoli to hold talks after Britain followed France in accepting that Muammar Gaddafi cannot be bombed into exile.

The change of stance by the two most active countries in the international coalition is an acceptance of realities on the ground. Despite more than four months of sustained air strikes by Nato, the rebels have failed to secure any military advantage. Colonel Gaddafi has survived what observers perceive as attempts to eliminate him and, despite the defection of a number of senior commanders, there is no sign that he will be dethroned in a palace coup.

The regime controls around 20 per cent more territory than it did in the immediate aftermath of the uprising on 17 February.

The main obstacle to a ceasefire, so far, has been the insistence of the opposition and their Western backers that Colonel Gaddafi and his family must leave Libya. But earlier this month Mustafa Abdul Jalil, the leader of the Transitional National Council, stated that the dictator can remain in the country if he gives up the reins of power.

The French President, Nicolas Sarkozy, had wanted to declare victory in a Bastille Day speech on 14 July. Soon after this date, the country's Defence and Foreign Ministers pressed the case for a negotiated settlement. [...]

That french dwarf is a real statesman, huh?

Italian government blocks investigation into missing arms cache

The Italian government has blocked an investigation into the whereabouts of a massive consignment of weapons removed from a military depot in the Mediterranean, amid speculation that the cargo was secretly supplied to Libya.

The weapons were from a consignment that included 30,000 Kalashnikov AK-47 automatic rifles, 32m rounds of ammunition, 5,000 Katyusha rockets, 400 Fagot wire-guided anti-tank missiles and some 11,000 other anti-tank weapons.

They were transferred from a store on the island of Santo Stefano, off the north coast of Sardinia, and transported to the mainland where they were loaded onto army trucks , a source familiar with the operation told the Guardian. But what happened to them after that is a mystery – and now a secret.

The arms were said to have been moved about a month after Silvio Berlusconi radically shifted his stance on Libya. Firmly allied to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi until the outbreak of hostilities, he was initially reluctant to do more than provide base facilities for France and Britain.

But on 26 April, after a telephone conversation with Barack Obama, he announced that Italian planes would join the air strikes on Libya in an attempt to break the deadlock on the ground. His announcement wrong-footed his coalition allies in the Northern League, who have repeatedly deplored Italy's subsequent involvement.

A prosecutor in the town of Tempio Pausania opened an investigation into the destination of the weapons but his inquiries were blocked by an order from the prime minister's office warning that the affair was covered by official secrecy, according to reports in two daily newspapers.

Never fear, I'm sure that the rebels, if they were indeed offered all these weapons by the humanitarian alliance, would never dream of using, say, Katyusha rockets on government-held cities. No sir, only government artillery can be turned on civilians.
And also if they were, it's an epic fail by them not to have advanced any further with all that arsenal available.

 

[Ayn Rand]

They would not be able to stop genocide in Rwanda by air strikes. But they even refused to bomb some radiostation while they eagerly joined some marginal rebel group. I do not actually saying it is bad in principle - it is normal to support or lend help for/against someone who is important for you national/organizational interests and Rwanda is just some third-world country populated with poor black guys, but all this speeches about how noble NATO fights for the best interests of Lybian people while destroying the country smells with propaganda too much.

I must be missing something here - please can you tell me what we gain from this? The only motive I can think of is that Britain is humiliated that it let the Lockerbie bomber out of jail and is desperately trying to appease America.

Are you going to say oil? - we used to purchase it from Gadaffi. Does it make a difference who we purchase oil from at World market rates? It's the same product at the same price no matter who we buy it from.

 

[Lone Wolf]

I don't think that Sarko and Bammy thought it out either. I think they believed their own propaganda and indeed thought that Gaddafi would be overturned within weeks.

 

[RedRalph]

To be fair, few would have disagreed with them. I had no idea how ineffective NATO or the rebels were going to be.

 

[timtofly]

I think an abortion would be ok since the US and NATO should have abstained instead of taking an advantage to rape the situation.