Middle East on fire - Part XVII

[anandus]

(The part number is arbitrary)

So, it's 'the usual business' again in the Levant. Hamas firing rockets at Israel, Israel bombing targets in Gaza. We've seen this before. Many, many times before.

But is it a different situation now?

The Arab Spring has uprooted northeastern Africa and large parts of the Middle East.
With neighbouring Syria in a civil war (and the opposition slowly being recognised as the legitimate government), a civil war sometimes spilling over the borders to Turkey, Israel an Lebanon.
And neighbouring Egypt with a completely new leadership being more outspoken against Israel than ever.

Is the situation possibly more explosive than 'normal'?

Or will it blow over as always, until the next time the belligerents start throwing rockets at each other again?

Your thoughts?

 

[~Corsair#01~]

I'm glad that Egypt is stepping up to its role as protector of the Palestinians, but I hope that they don't anything stupid that'll weaken their military capability for the future and get their civilains killed.

 

[Dumanios]

This seems appropriate to mention.

Spoiler :

Updated at 2:15 p.m. ET: On the third day of escalating violence between Israel and Gaza, air raid sirens cried out in Israel’s two largest cities, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, as residents moved into underground shelters, NBC reporters on the scene said.

At least one rocket fired from Gaza toward Jerusalem landed outside the city, which is more than 60 miles from the Gaza Strip, according to NBC's Martin Fletcher. There were no injuries or damage. This was the first Palestinian rocket to reach the vicinity of Jerusalem since 1970.

Earlier, at least one rocket fired toward coastal Tel Aviv fell into the sea.

"The rocket landed off the shores of Tel Aviv," a police spokesman told Reuters. This was the second attack on Tel Aviv in as many days, with rockets nearly hitting the city on Thursday.

The attacks, which Israel considers to be a major escalation, could lead to an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza.

Israel's military is considering waging a ground campaign. It started drafting 16,000 reserve troops on Friday, as Israel's cabinet authorized the mobilization of up to 75,000 reservists. Troops are massing on the border, and witnesses said they could see Israeli ships off Gaza's coast, NBC News' Ayman Mohyeldin reported.

The rocket attacks came just hours after Egypt’s prime minister visited the Gaza Strip to show support for Palestinians amid a cross-border conflict with Hamas militants that risks spiraling into an all-out war.

"Egypt will spare no effort ... to stop the aggression and to achieve a truce," Prime Minister Hesham Kandil said.

"Palestine is the heart of the Arab and Muslim world and the body is not healthy while the heart is sick," he added.

Kandil held the bloodied body of a child at a hospital before leaving the Gaza Strip.

But even as Kandil made his three-hour visit to the coastal enclave, a temporary cease-fire declared by Israel at Egypt’s request collapsed, with both sides accusing the other of violating it.

At least 19 Palestinians, including seven militants and 12 civilians, among them six children and a pregnant woman, have been killed in Israeli airstrikes. A Hamas rocket killed three Israelis in the town of Kiryat Malachi on Thursday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is prepared to “take whatever action is necessary,” but Israel has also expressed a strong desire to preserve its peace with the new Egyptian leadership.

Overnight, the military said it targeted about 150 of the sites Gaza gunmen use to fire rockets at Israel, as well as ammunition warehouses, bringing to 450 the number of sites struck since the operation began Wednesday.

The latest upsurge of violence in the long-running conflict began Wednesday when Israel killed Hamas' military mastermind, Ahmed Jabari, in a precision airstrike on his car. Israel then began shelling Gaza from land, air and sea.

Israel says its offensive was in response to increasing missile salvos from Gaza. Its bombing has not yet reached the saturation level seen before it last invaded Gaza in 2008, but Israeli officials have said a ground assault remains possible.

“We are going to continue hitting Hamas hard and we will continue to strike hard at the missiles targeted at Central and South Israel," Netanyahu wrote Friday on Twitter.

An Israeli ground offensive could be costly to both sides. In the last Gaza war, Israel devastated parts of the territory, setting back Hamas' fighting capabilities. But Israel also payed the price of increasing diplomatic isolation because of a civilian death toll numbering in the hundreds.

This week’s fighting has widened the instability gripping the region, further straining Israel-Egypt relations.

 

[Absolution]

I'm glad to see that the world accepts the Israeli attacks.

I think Egypt has gone to far, and it would be a huge mistake for them to interfere, or send any military support to Gaza.

I still wonder what can be the outcome of this operation if we are not going to destroy the Hamas.
Many Israeli ministers say that the actual target is too weaken the Hamas, even if it is only temporary, and not to completely destroy the Hamas.

 

[Borachio]

Why not undermine the extremists in Hamas politically, by such things as engaging in meaningful dialogue with Gazans? Any attempt to do so militarily is going to at least backfire, I fear. And possibly, though not probably imo, escalate to a regional conflict.

 

[Agent327]

Since Hamas' power is a result from Israeli aggression in the first place, the most likely outcome is not a weakening of its position. Meanwhile ordinary Gazans and, to a lesser extent, Israelis suffer the consequences of this undeclared "war'.

And neighbouring Egypt with a completely new leadership being more outspoken against Israel than ever.

Given that the new Egypt president is from the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's stance is actually rather reserved. It compares favourably with Netanyahu's (election-induced?) offensive, whose main objective seems to be domestic rather than foreign. In any case, negotiations are now out of the question until things settle down again to 'normal' levels. In all likelihood not until after Israel's elections are over.

 

[Absolution]

Since Hamas' power is a result from Israeli aggression in the first place

?
Arab movements and governments threatened to destroy Israel even before 67.
So I don't think it is a result of aggression.

However, negotiations with Abu Mazen will probably harm the Palestinians' trust in the Hamas.

But as I see it now, it can be a three-states solution, not two.
Now it is clearer than before. It's more than just a temporary political split.
The Palestinians in the Western Bank hardly response to the operation in Gaza.

 

[dutchfire]

I don't think Egypt's harsher stand will encompass anything but words. Surely they are not going to start a conventional war against Israel, which they will lose. They might reduce outgoing border control.

edit: This might be a good moment for the West bank to get rid of the Gaza strip and negotiate a reasonable treaty with Israel on their own.

 

[Absolution]

edit: This might be a good moment for the West bank to get rid of the Gaza strip and negotiate a reasonable treaty with Israel on their own.

It will be a very hard decision for the Palestinians.
Moreover, I think we'll see Hamas terrorist actions in Ramala if it happens.

 

[Leoreth]

edit: This might be a good moment for the West bank to get rid of the Gaza strip and negotiate a reasonable treaty with Israel on their own.

I agree. This has been my recommendation to West Bank Palestinians for quite some time. Unfortunately with Abbas' recent declaration of solidarity with the Gaza strip I don't think there's much hope for that, and they'll be pulled down into the further deteoriating relationship with Israel as well.

 

[Agent327]

I don't quite see how the West Bank's response could have been any different, simply because it's "only" Gaza that's being attacked.

?
Arab movements and governments threatened to destroy Israel even before 67.
So I don't think it is a result of aggression.

Israeli aggression predates the state of Israel, if you're unaware of that. What's now the IDF started largely as a terrorist organization.

Anyway, Israel has called up its reservists, so the show of force is far from over.

 

[Absolution]

Anyway, Israel has called up its reservists, so the show of force is far from over.

The land forces are in place since Thursday, and there is no formal target for the operation.
So yes, there is a possibility that it is only a show of force.

I don't know how an invasion can help, if we are not going to destroy the Hamas.
Lieberman said that the forces on the border can stress the Hamas even without invading.

 

[Agent327]

I don't know how an invasion can help, if we are not going to destroy the Hamas.
Lieberman said that the forces on the border can stress the Hamas even without invading.

The previous "invasion" of Gaza also predated an election. Israel won't destroy Hamas, just as it hasn't destroyed the PLO. A political (if you will, terrorist) organization isn't destroyed by killing a number of its members. So far it only looks like there is a political goal, in shoring up patriotic support domestically.

 

[anandus]

It's not like it's OBVIOUS that elections are around the corner

 

[Flying Pig]

I think this is a bit too serious to be simple electioneering - Israel's major population centres almost never come under attack; the last time Tel Aviv was fired upon was during the Gulf War.

 

[Absolution]

I really don't know what is best for Israel now.

The best scenario I can see is that after we finish bombing most of the targets, we would try to reach a cease fire, in which we will demand the Hamas and the Islamic Jihad to stop launching rockets, and to stop producing/buying them.

After that, every military action by the Hamas or by the Islamic Jihad will cause a response from the air.
If we see that after the cease fire they buy/produce rockets, we'll bomb the place they are hid in.
And same thing if rockets are launched - after every military action we spot in Gaza, a bomber will be sent to the air.

 

[Tahuti]

I think this is a bit too serious to be simple electioneering - Israel's major population centres almost never come under attack; the last time Tel Aviv was fired upon was during the Gulf War.

Never underestimate the sheer irrationality of any country's electorate.

 

[Flying Pig]

My point is that they're under unprecedented attack, so - election or no election - any country would be taking some sort of action. There was a time when we had mortars being fired into the UK from across the Irish border, and at that time the border was swarming with British troops; although we didn't (officially) invade the Republic, we almost certainly would have done so had there been, frankly, anything in the area worth hitting.

 

[Absolution]

The major effect on the elections is actually in the south.
The people there have waited a long time for an action, and this is a blessed action by the government, from their point of view.

The attacks on Tel Aviv or Rishon LeZion are nothing actually.
The are intercepted or fall to the sea.
We just have to run into the shelters once in a while, but it's nothing horrible.
Of course if I was a Palestinian I would say that it is horrible, how little children are taught to run from the rockets, to live in shelters and to hear sirens, and how terrible it is that they hear the rockets falling or exploding in the sky, but I won't provide you with this unimportant and not objective emotional information.

 

[dutchfire]

Question for the military geeks (I'm looking at you Flying Pig). I looked at a map of the Gaza strip, and it seems that it is never wider than 10 km. Now I know that WWII artillery had a range of >10 km. So I expect modern Israeli artillery to have at least that range as well. So why are they not just setting up artillery at the border and using that instead of air strikes. It seems a more economical alternative.