Next time Bursa grows it gains +4 each Distress and Poverty, but -2 each Illiteracy and Boredom. So it's expected to have:
6 Distress, 5 Poverty, 0 Religious Division, 0 Illiteracy and 0 Boredom.
If the city had a barracks, it would have:
5 Distress, 5 Poverty, 1 Religious Division, 0 Illiteracy, 0 Boredom
Or:
5 Distress, 6 Poverty, 0 Religious Division, 0 Illiteracy and 0 Boredom, if Poverty is being capped.
How much worse Illiteracy and Boredom will become is hidden, and you won't find out until you either grow, or mitigate the Distress and Poverty preemptively.
We are currently producing 6.8 / and have a deficit of 6 which means that current needs are 12.8, or 1.3 / . If we grow, then our total needs will be 14.3 while we still are predicted to only have 6.8.
I can't figure how the unhappiness is calculated off of the deficit. It seems like gaining 3 / (ie a total of 6 split between the two) will alleviate 1 unhappiness, but I don't know how that 3 was calculated in the first place.
For simplicity, the 'on growth' function assumes that the current city yields will not change. So it's a worst case scenario (i.e. if you go from 12-13 pop, it assumes that the new pop does nothing until you assign it). This allows the player to see which yield median will be hit hardest by growth, but it is not necessarily indicative of the real difference.
G