JohnRM
Don't make me destroy you
Are you kidding? I get paid Box A every week. I'm going for big money!
Newcomb's Problem
- Thread starter Erik Mesoy
- Start date
Zarn
Le Républicain Catholique
I would not take a box. I do not need any handouts. 
Catharsis
catch u on the flip scythe
Good point.
I didn't think of that. That said, I'd still go for both boxes, because I don't want to be seen as the type of person who goes into town specifically to buy boxes.
Actually, I just remembered something I heard from a lecture on an entirely different subject.
If you quantify the value of the boxes by the probability they have money, you get:
Box A: 100% chance of having $1,000
Box B: 50% chance of having $1,000,000
So, the values of those boxes are:
Box A: $1,000
Box B: $500,000
So using those values, it's obvious that you should take Box B.
If you quantify the value of the boxes by the probability they have money, you get:
Box A: 100% chance of having $1,000
Box B: 50% chance of having $1,000,000
So, the values of those boxes are:
Box A: $1,000
Box B: $500,000
So using those values, it's obvious that you should take Box B.
Actually, I just remembered something I heard from a lecture on an entirely different subject.
If you quantify the value of the boxes by the probability they have money, you get:
Box A: 100% chance of having $1,000
Box B: 50% chance of having $1,000,000
So, the values of those boxes are:
Box A: $1,000
Box B: $500,000
So using those values, it's obvious that you should take Box B.
How do you work out the 50%?
Box B can only have one of two possibilities, and from the point of view of the human taking the box, it's random. So it's just a 50% chance of having money or not having money.
How are both options equally probable?
Well, what criteria determines that they're not equally probable? The only factor that changes this sort of thing is Omega's omniscience. But the human doesn't know what he will choose until he's faced with the choice. How would you quantify Omega's omniscience?
Catharsis
catch u on the flip scythe
Why would you do that? If you do that, you get nothing. If you play the alien's game, you get either nothing, $1000, or $1000000, and you are guaranteed at least one box and evidence of the existence of aliens.
Perfection
The Great Head.
What the heck kind of physics guy are you? It's a chance to practically apply quantum uncertainty!
Erik Mesoy
Core Tester / Intern
Omega could be using quantum universe suicide: split the universe, put the money in box B in one universe, don't do it in the other universe, unmake whichever one turns out wrong.
Omega could be using time travel.
Omega could have a computer running a simulation of you to figure out what you'll decide.
Omega could simply be a very, very good psychologist.
Omega could have read your posts here.
Perfection
The Great Head.
Well, it would presumably be what I choose with near 100% certainty. The alien's got me figured out and has already thought my thoughts. This is why I base my decision on something I can probably trust (quantum randomness).
DragonHawk
Bored
Box B of course. $1000 vs a 50% chance for $1 million is not even a comparison. Now, had box A contain $100,000; I would have chosen A.
I get nothing then, sounds fair to me.
Well the issue is that the alien predicts that if you do choose both, then the box won't have $1m.
Now, either it is a mind-reader, in which case you can decide with mental discipline to take only box B, and take both when he leaves; or he is a time-traveler, in which case he is guaranteed to be correct and it's better to choose only B.
You could by waterproof stuff.Good point.
I take box B only. The hole in the 2 boxer argument:
>your decision cannot affect what is in the boxes, because the money was put there IN THE
>PAST.
What makes you believe this (the mono-direction of causality with time)? I thought it was a minority view among physicists these days?
>your decision cannot affect what is in the boxes, because the money was put there IN THE
>PAST.
What makes you believe this (the mono-direction of causality with time)? I thought it was a minority view among physicists these days?
Mise
isle of lucy
Does Omega make the prediction on the basis that you don't know that Omega makes the prediction?
If so, then take both. If not, and Omega knows that you know that Omega will put $1m in B iff you only pick B, then only pick B.
Perfection
The Great Head.
The directionality of time is irrelevant, actually. Time travel could be impossible and B could still be the best choice. What the failing here is the nature of conciuosness and choice.
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